Correct fold? KK pre on a DYM bubble

Andyl1986

Jam it in at level 5 or 6 your not gonna get a better chance m8

Andyl1986

Hi all,

A friend of mine slated me for this pre-flop fold on the bubble of an £11 Double Your Money:

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceswiggersSmall blind 200.00200.004322.50Andyl1986Big blind 400.00600.002135.00 Your hole cardsKK   Bramhall21Fold    berniAll-in 2442.503042.500.00swiggersCall 2242.505285.002080.00Andyl1986Fold    swiggersShowQQ   berniShow44   Flop  549   Turn  2   River  7   berniWinThree 4s5285.00 5285.0

The reasons for the fold:

- We were on the bubble

- The SB hadn't been calling too frequently (as far as I can remember)

- The button was probably shoving pretty wide and was likely well beat by the big stack SB when he called

Would appreciate your thoughts.  Cheers.

EDIT:  It appears I foolishly thought berni had me covered at the time... this is obviously not the case.  Had I realised this at the time I probably would have called.  Would still appreciate opinions either way, i.e. if I was covered and if not.

Poker_Fail

Berni didn't have you covered, so I would deffo call. As either you or swiggers winning = game over

And even if berni had AQ in that spot youd still be 70ish% which is very good win rate at DYMs

delaney09

can't call quicker bubble or not you don't exactly have the stack to be folding out these hands with the hope that the button will go bust

now heres the vital question

did you go on to make top 3 ?

Mr_Miyagi

good fold unless the unlikely event that they split the pot then you are certainly cashing just by folding so there is no point at all to join in.

Poker_Fail

In Response to Re: Correct fold? KK pre on a DYM bubble:

good fold unless the unlikely event that they split the pot then you are certainly cashing just by folding so there is no point at all to join in.
Posted by Mr_Miyagi

If he calls he is much more likely to win, if he or swiggers wins, game= over, unless berni has AA then the OP is gonna cash about 80% of the time in this spot if he calls. Considerably higher than if he folds.

YOUNG_GUN

Hmm tough decision not bad, but hard to fold still

easier to fold due to DYM though, hope this isnt a bad beat? you were well ahead so it probably is a bad fold but if on bubble can understand if u want an easier ride eg. someone else to do the knocking out

Andyl1986

In Response to Re: Correct fold? KK pre on a DYM bubble:

can't call quicker bubble or not you don't exactly have the stack to be folding out these hands with the hope that the button will go bust now heres the vital question did you go on to make top 3 ?
Posted by delaney09

I did - swiggers was crippled a couple of hands later if I remember rightly then I busted him with QQ.

Andyl1986

In Response to Re: Correct fold? KK pre on a DYM bubble:

Berni didn't have you covered , so I would deffo call. As either you or swiggers winning = game over And even if berni had AQ in that spot youd still be 70ish% which is very good win rate at DYMs
Posted by Poker_Fail

Looking back you're right - at the time I thought berni had me covered (didnt take into account the blind I'd already posted) - huge fail on my part!

rancid

your stack shouts - shove it in

Poker_Fail

In Response to Re: Correct fold? KK pre on a DYM bubble:

In Response to Re: Correct fold? KK pre on a DYM bubble : Looking back you're right - at the time I thought berni had me covered (didnt take into account the blind I'd already posted) - huge fail on my part!
Posted by Andyl1986

Finally someone pays attention to me lol

Yeh, the fact that you have him covered means that you should call there, as unless he has AA (Very unlikely) you are going to be about 80% to win the game right there. If you fold, as you did, you're not winning in that situation as often, you have roughly the same stack as swiggers and you'll only win in that situation about 60% even with great bubble play.

rancid

If he got berni covered and swiggers take em both out, andy wins the money because he has the biggest sack - correct?

jugglegeek

Fine to fold. Your reads of the small blind sugest he is going to have the best hand and if that is the case and his best hand holds you cash. If the small blind wins then you are going to be level in chips roughly with the button player and can still easily cash from this spot. You can call in this spot, but I think if you ran all the numbers and likely range it would come up -ev. After all if you call and lose then the game is over. Folding gives you two ways to win (you can win right there and then at this hand, or you can win later by grinding out the rest of the game). Calling means you have to win

rancid

5 bb, covers berni, he has KK - can't see how anyone folds here

JOHN CONNOR WE NEED YOU )

Poker_Fail

In Response to Re: Correct fold? KK pre on a DYM bubble:

If he got berni covered and swiggers take em both out, andy wins the money because he has the biggest sack - correct?
Posted by rancid

Yes, Berni has the shortest stack from the 3, so OP cashes unless he wins (which will be about 20% of the time if he calls)

Poker_Fail

In Response to Re: Correct fold? KK pre on a DYM bubble:

Fine to fold. Your reads of the small blind sugest he is going to have the best hand and if that is the case and his best hand holds you cash. If the small blind wins then you are going to be level in chips roughly with the button player and can still easily cash from this spot. You can call in this spot, but I think if you ran all the numbers and likely range it would come up -ev. After all if you call and lose then the game is over. Folding gives you two ways to win (you can win right there and then at this hand, or you can win later by grinding out the rest of the game). Calling means you or swiggers have to win
Posted by jugglegeek

Fixed

GREGHOGG

I dont mind this fold

Batkin88

Its a fold all day long because you either win there and then or your still 3rd in chips meaning your posistion is good i wouldnt call with any hand here ever 3 way regardless of reads. The stack sizes are perfect for you to fold
good fold

DOHHHHHHH

easiest call I've ever seen

Might be different if they both covered us, but think I still call anyway.

rancid

I don't know how people are saying fold, finks DYM's are not for me )

DOHHHHHHH

Just discussed the ranges of both players with Hoggers and ran the numbers on stove.

With the ranges we assigned, if we make the call, either us, or the isolation shover witll win the hand 80% of the time. So we make the call, we will cash now every 4 out of 5 games.

If we fold, the isolation shover will win 60% of the time.

If we cash in 80% of games when we r on the bubble with 2.4k @ 200/400 I'd say that's a pretty spectacular win-rate.

Very clear call. 

JohnConnor

Really interesting this one. I think swiggers having chips back and you covering berni are the key points here, making this a call to get the old 2 vs 1 going. You're obviously crushing berni in this spot. If they both have very similar stacks I can find a fold knowing one of them will be crippled but here I have to call.

rancid

o good, i am not going mad then )

Poker_Fail

In Response to Re: Correct fold? KK pre on a DYM bubble:

Just discussed the ranges of both players with Hoggers and ran the numbers on stove. With the ranges we assigned, if we make the call, either us, or the isolation shover witll win the hand 80% of the time. So we make the call, we will cash now every 4 out of 5 games. If we fold, the isolation shover will win 60% of the time. If we cash in 80% of games when we r on the bubble with 2.4k @ 200/400 I'd say that's a pretty spectacular win-rate. Very clear call. 
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

That's exactly what i've been saying the whole time lol and that's without any programs

And glad to see JC agree too

Lambert180

The reason a fold isn't terrible is because it's VERY likely one of them will lose which means one of two things
1) the game ends and you cash
2) the other guy wins and the big stack is in the mix now and it's a free-for-all where you can usually keep your head down and cash. But yeah is much better if their stacks are closer.

I can definitely understand a fold here and I don't think it's too bad, but I probably would call on the basis that as long as I or the big stack wins, I cash.

Batkin88

In Response to Re: Correct fold? KK pre on a DYM bubble:

Just discussed the ranges of both players with Hoggers and ran the numbers on stove. With the ranges we assigned, if we make the call, either us, or the isolation shover witll win the hand 80% of the time. So we make the call, we will cash now every 4 out of 5 games. If we fold, the isolation shover will win 60% of the time. If we cash in 80% of games when we r on the bubble with 2.4k @ 200/400 I'd say that's a pretty spectacular win-rate. Very clear call. 
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

But by folding you are not not cashing by calling you are

Poker_Fail

In Response to Re: Correct fold? KK pre on a DYM bubble:

In Response to Re: Correct fold? KK pre on a DYM bubble : But by folding you are not not cashing by calling you are
Posted by Batkin88

But you win cash a considerably higher % of the time in this scenario if you call.

Usually in DYMs you are trying to avoid any possible confrontations, but on the bubble if you can secure a spot where you are this likely to win you have to make the call

MP33

Instant shove for me

Batkin88

In Response to Re: Correct fold? KK pre on a DYM bubble:

In Response to Re: Correct fold? KK pre on a DYM bubble : But you win cash a considerably higher % of the time in this scenario if you call. Usually in DYMs you are trying to avoid any possible confrontations, but on the bubble if you can secure a spot where you are this likely to win you have to make the call
Posted by Poker_Fail

There is no way that can be proven as your still sitting 3rd with a playable stack after. If you fold you have a chance of cashing with no risk and if worst happens and small stack wins then the big stack is now short stack

Poker_Fail

In Response to Re: Correct fold? KK pre on a DYM bubble:

In Response to Re: Correct fold? KK pre on a DYM bubble : There is no way that can be proven as your still sitting 3rd with a playable stack after. If you fold you have a chance of cashing with no risk and if worst happens and small stack wins then the big stack is now short stack
Posted by Batkin88

It is though, if you call you are 80% to win, you will be less than 80% to win if you fold.

Here's a Q for you, You are at the bubble, all 4 of you have exactly 3000 chips, 1 of them shoves and you KNOW they have AQ, you have AK. Would you call? Doing anything other than calling in that situation is wrong as you are 70% to win which is a higher win-rate than you could hope for.

liamboi11

i`m not a stt player but i`m never folding this what if u had aces would you still fold?