DYM BUBBLE - fold or call

Lambert180

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : Indeed, I ain't no DYM expert but if all stacks are 10 bb I have to call here with AK. I thought he could have mid pr but also a worse ace playing it to fold out mid prs, It is also the case that he can do this with a wider range of hands because people are only calling with AA/KK in this dynamic. And I just can't fo;d AK with 10 bigs and equal stacks  ) Prefer to shove but hey are we going to get a better hand before we blind out.
Posted by rancid

That's the whole point though, you don't NEED to call, let someone else do it. As you say, it could be a mid-pair... so do you wanna take a race when you're a slight dog for your tourney life when the guy next to you just folded 94off and is gonna cash when one of you loses?

If he's taking advantage then so be it, he got there first. Next hand you can take advantage of that very same dynamic and you can be sure that Shanxta won't be calling a shove for his all-in unless he has a monster (I'm not including AK in Shanxta's range to call an all-in for his tourney life on the bubble when he's in NO danger). He's a good player and KNOWS in that situation, almost 100% of the time, he either HAS to hit, or has to dodge 2 cards, why would he take that unnecessary risk?

GREGHOGG

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : That's the whole point though, you don't NEED to call, let someone else do it. As you say, it could be a mid-pair... so do you wanna take a race when you're a slight dog for your tourney life when the guy next to you just folded 94off and is gonna cash when one of you loses? If he's taking advantage then so be it, he got there first. Next hand you can take advantage of that very same dynamic and you can be sure that Shanxta won't be calling a shove for his all-in unless he has a monster (I'm not including AK in Shanxta's range to call an all-in for his tourney life on the bubble when he's in NO danger). He's a good player and KNOWS in that situation, almost 100% of the time, he either HAS to hit, or has to dodge 2 cards, why would he take that unnecessary risk?
Posted by Lambert180

just fold everything on the bubble,  especially aces..

also dont shove anything either.. its far too risky to even think about moving a chip...

in fact, just sit there, look pretty, and fold down to 1/2 a big blind. Then quadruple up direwolf style and cash in every game...

Alternativly we can get our money in with a nice premium hand like AK and be happy that we are trying to win money than avoid losing it.  Im with Dohhhhhh and Rancid on this one.

grantorino

I would think it depends a lot on how other 2 villains play. If they are standard bad low stakes villains I would think villains range is tight, hence fold (we prob have enough cEV to call, but its prob -£EV) . If they are decent regs villains range should be much wider, there may be a reason to call

I would think this is a pretty standard fold in a dym if you run an icm calc and give villain a tight range, especially if other 2 players are likely to make mistakes. btw that sngwiz calc shown depends completely on range entered for villain

Again I have never really played dyms or studied strat for them so make of that what you will

Poker_Fail

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : just fold everything on the bubble,  especially aces.. also dont shove anything either.. its far too risky to even think about moving a chip... in fact, just sit there, look pretty, and fold down to 1/2 a big blind. Then quadruple up direwolf style and cash in every game... Alternativly we can get our money in with a nice premium hand like AK and be happy that we are trying to win money than avoid losing it.  Im with Dohhhhhh and Rancid on this one.
Posted by GREGHOGG

Now that is just exaggerating :P

The thing is though, in this situation and against SHANXTA it isn't a profitable call, you need 55% to win and you are not gonna be a 55% fav against his range in this situation

grantorino

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : Now that is just exaggerating :P The thing is though, in this situation and against SHANXTA it isn't a profitable call, you need 55% to win and you are not gonna be a 55% fav against his range in this situation
Posted by Poker_Fail

where is that 55% figure coming from? (not saying its wrong, just have no idea how you got it)

rancid

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

I would think it depends a lot on how other 2 villains play. If they are standard bad low stakes villains I would think villains range is tight, hence fold (we prob have enough cEV to call, but its prob -£EV) . If they are decent regs villains range should be much wider, there may be a reason to call I would think this is a pretty standard fold in a dym if you run an icm calc and give villain a tight range, especially if other 2 players are likely to make mistakes. btw that sngwiz calc shown depends completely on range entered for villain Again I have never really played dyms or studied strat for them so make of that what you will
Posted by grantorino

It's another slant on a DYM strategy where if villains are bad low stakes then you should by all accounts tighten your shoving range as the possibility of being called is much higher. Maybe if this was at a higher stake and versus the same villain  then oppo's shoving range may include AQ/AJ type hands. 

Should we be exploiting low stake DYM players by tightening our range as they are more likely going to be getting it in or calling with worse. When facing DYM Regulars at low stakes do we loosen our range if we know there tightening there range - i know he knows....So of I am shoving into a reg from the sb for example on the bubble this has to be +ev as he is only calling with three hands - you could in theory get regs to lay down better as they are just never calling.

Poker_Fail

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : where is that 55% figure coming from? (not saying its wrong, just have no idea how you got it)
Posted by grantorino

Winning 55% of you're DYMs (in the £3.30s or above, below that the rake is a higher %) is break even as it just covers the rake.

I'll use the £5.50s as an example, if you win you get £10. If you win 55% of your games you'll get £5.50 return on average, which is the same as the buyin, so break-even.

grantorino

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : Winning 55% of you're DYMs (in the £3.30s or above, below that the rake is a higher %) is break even as it just covers the rake. I'll use the £5.50s as an example, if you win you get £10. If you win 55% of your games you'll get £5.50 return on average, which is the same as the buyin, so break-even.
Posted by Poker_Fail

I would think you need to look at the £EV of calling here v the £EV of folding, not the fact we need to win 55% of games

jimifloyd

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

I would think it depends a lot on how other 2 villains play. If they are standard bad low stakes villains I would think villains range is tight, hence fold (we prob have enough cEV to call, but its prob -£EV) . If they are decent regs villains range should be much wider, there may be a reason to call I would think this is a pretty standard fold in a dym if you run an icm calc and give villain a tight range, especially if other 2 players are likely to make mistakes. btw that sngwiz calc shown depends completely on range entered for villain Again I have never really played dyms or studied strat for them so make of that what you will
Posted by grantorino

Just wanted to end it with the pic,easy fold.
I adjusted shanxtas shoving range to 100 % of hands and its still a fold for grantorino.

Simple maths tells u its a fold i aint going in to dym strat.

But just a simple eg. The more people the shove has to get through the tighter the range and also the higher the % chance of being called.So the call is not just shanxtas hand but also a % chance of being called by 1 of the remaining 2 of 4 players.

By folding u still have a 75% chance of cashing 3 paid from 4 players=75%
AK vs a tightish range ,then ur a 51+% fav.


There are spots when u have to call cause you are 1 of the 2 shortest stacks that are way behind but this is not 1 of them.
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/401/28355966.jpg/


http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/153/capture2uc.jpg

JohnConnor

I think this is a comfortable enough fold at this stage of the game and it looks like Wiz confirms this. I'd usually call if i had 1800 chips or less.

rancid

Cheers Jimi/JC

I was 50/50 at the time and considered I was short with 8.5 bb v 10bb stacks and the blinds were coming round to me so thought hey ho lets flip or he could have a worse A. Just thought it was a better spot than having to pass this and shove one of the next two hands if un opened or just blind down and hope the other two make a mistake and bust but the table was tight and Shanx is never making a mistake so...  gg

Rancid

Poker_Fail

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : I would think you need to look at the £EV of calling here v the £EV of folding, not the fact we need to win 55% of games
Posted by grantorino

But the thing is, they had equal stacks so it was as simple as win or lose. He was not 55%+ against SHANXTA's range so it was not profitable to call in this spot.

MP33

just seen it on imageshack

Thats some program and i guess its hard to gp against that

Lambert180

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : But the thing is, they had equal stacks so it was as simple as win or lose. He was not 55%+ against SHANXTA's range so it was not profitable to call in this spot.
Posted by Poker_Fail

Which was my original point exactly. If you're calling an all-in for your stack, then you have to be winning it at least 55% of the time, and I don't think you are going to against this shove because I think his range involves alot of pairs where you're an underdog.

MP33

Is it possible for someone to use that software to type in the details and get the outcome before its there time to act

bearing in mind other sites have longer timebars and extra waiting time

shame if it does as it takes the fun out of it

Lambert180

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

Is it possible for someone to use that software to type in the details and get the outcome before its there time to act bearing in mind other sites have longer timebars and extra waiting time shame if it does as it takes the fun out of it
Posted by MP33

I haven't used to the software but I'd imagine you'd have to be VERY fast to manage it AND you certainly couldn't do it while multi-tabling AND the answers are all based the hand range you enter so if you get your opponent's range wrong then it means nothing anyway.

DOHHHHHHH

If you're any sort of regular sng player (especially) dyms, u will/should know it off by heart. 

I'm obviously not a very good, or regular dym player because I snap this, and having 'stoved' it against what appears to be Shanxtas range, that would be a mistake.

But....when I initially said snap call, I assumed Shanxtas shoving range was alot wider than it actually appears to be, and if it was what I thought it was when I first read the hand, a call would be good!

Hope that's clear! ^^^  

jimifloyd

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

Is it possible for someone to use that software to type in the details and get the outcome before its there time to act bearing in mind other sites have longer timebars and extra waiting time shame if it does as it takes the fun out of it
Posted by MP33

Its impossible, you have to put it all in manually takes 2-5 minutes to review 1 hand.
You can import hand histories from other sites after the games are over but on sky your
hand histories ain't saved on the hard drive.

Its just a post game evaluation tool just like poker stove and the more you use it the more it
becomes common knowledge then habit.

Lambert180

Or indeed habit.... sorry lol

jimifloyd

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

Or indeed habit.... sorry lol
Posted by Lambert180

LOL my bad.

Poker_Fail

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

If you're any sort of regular sng player (especially) dyms, u will/should know it off by heart.  I'm obviously not a very good, or regular dym player because I snap this, and having 'stoved' it against what appears to be Shanxtas range, that would be a mistake. But....when I initially said snap call, I assumed Shanxtas shoving range was alot wider than it actually appears to be, and if it was what I thought it was when I first read the hand, a call would be good! Hope that's clear! ^^^  
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

It's far from the worst call ever made, and we all know you don't play DYMs

grantorino

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : But the thing is, they had equal stacks so it was as simple as win or lose. He was not 55%+ against SHANXTA's range so it was not profitable to call in this spot.
Posted by Poker_Fail

I wouldnt think its that simple, I would imagine we need much more than 55% equity to call.

Rancid has equity of about 65% of a payout if he folds based on his chipstack (if all stacks were equal he would have 75%). Therefore he needs to win over 65% if he calls  to make calling a more profitable action than folding. (obv skill advantage might make a difference to this decision)

Given that AK is only 66% to win v a random range and there are players to act behind it seems to be a fold, no matter what villains range is ( as jimi alluded to in his post) given there are players to act behind

Again, I've never really played dyms, if this math is completely wrong (I think it is tbh) someone let me know where, I'm sure at the least its oversimplified

btw Jimi wasnt disagreeing with your post, was just pointing out that sngwiz, like all equity calcs, relies on ranges you put in (was surprised its always a fold though)

EDIT: pretty sure above math is wrong, but cant fix it so will leave it to someone else. Definitely dont see how the 55% overall winrate to breakeven has anything to do with an individual decision in a dym. Its about making a decision which gives us the best chance of cashing in that dym

Poker_Fail

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : I wouldnt think its that simple, I would imagine we need much more than 55% equity to call. Rancid has equity of about 65% of a payout if he folds based on his chipstack (if all stacks were equal he would have 75%). Therefore he needs to win over 65% if he calls  to make calling a more profitable action than folding. (obv skill advantage might make a difference to this decision) Given that AK is only 66% to win v a random range and there are players to act behind it seems to be a fold, no matter what villains range is ( as jimi alluded to in his post) given there are players to act behind Again, I've never really played dyms, if this math is completely wrong (I think it is tbh) someone let me know where, I'm sure at the least its oversimplified btw Jimi wasnt disagreeing with your post, was just pointing out that sngwiz, like all equity calcs, relies on ranges you put in (was surprised its always a fold though) EDIT: pretty sure above math is wrong, but cant fix it so will leave it to someone else. Definitely dont see how the 55% overall winrate to breakeven has anything to do with an individual decision in a dym. Its about making a decision which gives us the best chance of cashing in that dym
Posted by grantorino

Yes you are right about that, what I meant was that calling AK in this spot would not only be much less profitable then folding (As you said he could easily win 65% in this spot), but would even give a lower win rate than what is required to be profitable at all (the 55% figure).

Say, for example he was 56% against SHANXTA's range, it would still be a profitable game if he called, but the play itself would very unprofitable with him losing about 9% more games in this situation (Compared with your 65% figure which seems about right).

Yeh my bad wording came into play, I'm just  saying that this call is simply losing him money.

jimifloyd

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : I wouldnt think its that simple, I would imagine we need much more than 55% equity to call. Rancid has equity of about 65% of a payout if he folds based on his chipstack (if all stacks were equal he would have 75%). Therefore he needs to win over 65% if he calls  to make calling a more profitable action than folding. (obv skill advantage might make a difference to this decision) Given that AK is only 66% to win v a random range and there are players to act behind it seems to be a fold, no matter what villains range is ( as jimi alluded to in his post) given there are players to act behind Again, I've never really played dyms, if this math is completely wrong (I think it is tbh) someone let me know where, I'm sure at the least its oversimplified btw Jimi wasnt disagreeing with your post, was just pointing out that sngwiz, like all equity calcs, relies on ranges you put in (was surprised its always a fold though) EDIT: pretty sure above math is wrong, but cant fix it so will leave it to someone else. Definitely dont see how the 55% overall winrate to breakeven has anything to do with an individual decision in a dym. Its about making a decision which gives us the best chance of cashing in that dym
Posted by grantorino

No problem m8, didn't mean it to come across as havin a dig at you just put a standard scenario up.
Gl at the tables.

rancid

Do we all agree it's a +EV fold then )

Knew I should have just folded lol

Lambert180

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : I wouldnt think its that simple, I would imagine we need much more than 55% equity to call. Rancid has equity of about 65% of a payout if he folds based on his chipstack (if all stacks were equal he would have 75%). Therefore he needs to win over 65% if he calls  to make calling a more profitable action than folding. (obv skill advantage might make a difference to this decision) Given that AK is only 66% to win v a random range and there are players to act behind it seems to be a fold, no matter what villains range is ( as jimi alluded to in his post) given there are players to act behind Again, I've never really played dyms, if this math is completely wrong (I think it is tbh) someone let me know where, I'm sure at the least its oversimplified btw Jimi wasnt disagreeing with your post, was just pointing out that sngwiz, like all equity calcs, relies on ranges you put in (was surprised its always a fold though) EDIT: pretty sure above math is wrong, but cant fix it so will leave it to someone else. Definitely dont see how the 55% overall winrate to breakeven has anything to do with an individual decision in a dym. Its about making a decision which gives us the best chance of cashing in that dym
Posted by grantorino

I know what you mean but because it's all very even, as someone said earlier, if you call, this is almost cash or not cash entirely on this hand, cos you're either gonna knock someone out on the bubble (or as good as) or be knocked out yourself (or as good as). So bearing that in mind, you need to win 55% of DYMs at this level to break even so if this exact situation comes up and you're against say 22 and you call, about 45% you win (cash), about 55% you lose (don't cash), and so you are losing long term. Now it's all really down to what people think Shanxta's range is but I'd be very doubtful that you're gonna win 55%+ of these races against him.

JC does talk about this in his guide but at the start of a DYM where for instance, first hand of the tourney, theres an open shove, everyone folds but you're last to act and have QQ, and you know, just hypothetically just say you have a perfect read on this person that he only does this with AK and nothing else. Then 45% of the time you lose and you're out, 55% of the time you win but you only double up, you havent cashed yet. Maybe 5-10% of the times you double up early you won't cash so thus you're cashing less than 55% of the time and it's an unnecessary and -ev move.

rancid

DYM mindset - fold into the money - simples

goes against natural MTT - go for the win 

me finks ...............

grantorino

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call:

In Response to Re: DYM BUBBLE - fold or call : So bearing that in mind, you need to win 55% of DYMs at this level to break even so if this exact situation comes up and you're against say 22 and you call, about 45% you win (cash), about 55% you lose (don't cash), and so you are losing long term. Now it's all really down to what people think Shanxta's range is but I'd be very doubtful that you're gonna win 55%+ of these races against him. JC does talk about this in his guide but at the start of a DYM where for instance, first hand of the tourney, theres an open shove, everyone folds but you're last to act and have QQ, and you know, just hypothetically just say you have a perfect read on this person that he only does this with AK and nothing else. Then 45% of the time you lose and you're out, 55% of the time you win but you only double up, you havent cashed yet. Maybe 5-10% of the times you double up early you won't cash so thus you're cashing less than 55% of the time and it's an unnecessary and -ev move.
Posted by Lambert180

What you talk about in 2nd paragraph applies to the situation we are in here. If we have 55% on a win or bust decision, sure we will be breakeven or better if we take it. However we should take the decision that maximises our win rate. If, for example, calling means we cash 60% of time and folding means we cash 70% of time then we should fold. Similarly there may be situations where calling is better than folding even though we wont win 55%. I'm pretty sure my math in my post above isnt correct, but I'd be surprised if we dont need  more than 55% equity to call there.

I'm not going to post anymore in this thread as I'm not well up on ICM and anything I said here may well be wrong (if so apologies). I would think a knowledge of ICM is vital for anyone playing sngs seriously. It is even more important for dyms as there is only one prize bump. Sats are obv similar to dyms and ICM will affect mtt decisions too