30nl AA & nfd facing raise on flop.

rancid

In Response to Re: 30nl AA & nfd facing raise on flop.:

FWIW, I dont know if your guys are kidding, but I dont see how we can ever flat flop.
Posted by AMYBR

i am serious, do the math -

leys say we have 35% st best, oppo never fold's to a shove
so 1 in 3 we win - spread it across x amount of hands

we put in x to win x

if we call or if we shove -

look at what we put in and what we expect to get back acorss the spread of hands in both scenrios

if we have no fe than a call is good yeah ?
I am kinda barking up a tree and want to be told STFU doggy or good boy )
I have not done the match - just going out on a limb

AMYBR

Hands up I did the math wrong here.

If we can put opponent on a made flush your kind of right.

We have 44% vs everything else though + the nut blocker (bar flopped straight).  This in combination with his ability to play alot of worse hands as the nuts + redraws is mainly why I dont fold.

But I dont like flatting leaving ourselves oop with opponent having a pot sized bet back.

I assume our plan is to c/f turn when we miss?

If opponents range is so tight we can put him on a made flush I'd rather fold flop than flat tbh.  As its unlikely we get paid in most cases how betting goes on flop.

grantorino

In Response to Re: 30nl AA & nfd facing raise on flop.:

In Response to Re: 30nl AA & nfd facing raise on flop. : i am serious, do the math - leys say we have 35% st best, oppo never fold's to a shove so 1 in 3 we win - spread it across x amount of hands we put in x to win x if we call or if we shove - look at what we put in and what we expect to get back acorss the spread of hands in both scenrios if we have no fe than a call is good yeah ? I am kinda barking up a tree and want to be told STFU doggy or good boy ) I have not done the match - just going out on a limb
Posted by rancid

not sure what 35% is, to make our flush? Whatever it is we are only roughly 1/2 that to hit on turn, we dont always get his stack on a 4 diamond board, esp oop

sometimes we turn a flush, he rivers a boat

I dont think calling is completely out of the question , but a 4th diamond will slow down every possible valuehand he has, and he can exercises some pot control ip.

waynec

JJ I can not in any way see you folding this, you have the nut flush draw apart from if our chap has 45 Dia I am pretty sure you shoved and IMO the right move!

Poker_Fail

In Response to Re: 30nl AA & nfd facing raise on flop.:

In Response to Re: 30nl AA & nfd facing raise on flop. : Are you hoping for a call or a fold when you shove? Do u think he's ever folding anything after making that raise? Can he call with worse? (if so, what).... Can he fold better hands that we have? (if so, what).......
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

I've seen many players who'll play this the same way and call to your shove with an overpair (sometimes not even a diamond in there)

Maybe he flatted pre with a mid-pair such as pocket 10s (1 diamond blocker) thinks he is ahead now but doesn't want to give you a cheap turn card?

debdobs_67

In Response to Re: 30nl AA & nfd facing raise on flop.:

In Response to Re: 30nl AA & nfd facing raise on flop. : Are you hoping for a call or a fold when you shove? Do u think he's ever folding anything after making that raise? Can he call with worse? (if so, what).... Can he fold better hands that we have? (if so, what).......
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

His raise to you on the flop suggests we are prob behind , to what ?? maybe a flush , maybe a set , could be A DRAW (unlikely) but im always happy to race when i have AA with the nut flush draw.

IF this is wrong for me to play this way then say so , and why.

IDONKCALLU

imo long term this is a profitable all in long term  if this happened 10 times i think u would win most of the time 

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: 30nl AA & nfd facing raise on flop.:

In Response to Re: 30nl AA & nfd facing raise on flop. : His raise to you on the flop suggests we are prob behind , to what ?? maybe a flush , maybe a set , could be A DRAW (unlikely) but im always happy to race when i have AA with the nut flush draw. IF this is wrong for me to play this way then say so , and why.
Posted by debdobs_67

I don't know the answer, that's why I posted it.

I just can't see him ever getting it in with worse than my hand, and obv isn't folding anything better either.

rancid

everyone's praying for pair 1 diamond )

Surely oppo is only raising flop with QQ/KK one diamond, if so why no 3 bet pre

makes no sense

rancid

In Response to Re: 30nl AA & nfd facing raise on flop.:

In Response to Re: 30nl AA & nfd facing raise on flop. : not sure what 35% is, to make our flush? Whatever it is we are only roughly 1/2 that to hit on turn, we dont always get his stack on a 4 diamond board, esp oop sometimes we turn a flush, he rivers a boat I dont think calling is completely out of the question , but a 4th diamond will slow down every possible valuehand he has, and he can exercises some pot control ip.
Posted by grantorino

yeah how do we get paid, my biggest concern

YOUNG_GUN

I guessed hand 2 pair, but im still getting it in but apparently its a fold, im such a station  

BigHawk89

I think this is a set or a flush all day long dont think he ever has qq or kk without 3 betting pre. Its a tough one to get away from dont think i could fold it spesh when you have the ace of diamonds.

DOHHHHHHH

It seems this thread is just about done.

I auto shoved, and got called by top 2, 67cc.

Was 53% but couldn't win the flip. 

Thanx to all that contributed.

GT replied 2pm. 

IDONKCALLU

ul dohhhhh u done the right move in my view 

huuuuume

for what its worth you played the hand a hell of a lot better than villain

at 30nl im getting it in every time here.  its just so much more fun that way

XYZMALCOLM

In Response to 30nl AA & nfd facing raise on flop.:
                                                                                  
Posted by DOHHHHHHH
Very interesting situation.  I am only making that sort of bet with a made small flush.    Hard hand to fold , even harder with a unknown player, I don't have the bottle to shove here as I would expect a call and be about a 35% shot.  I call and hope for a diamond , if not fold to a big bet on the turn. An ace may come up which changes thihgs a little too. 

XYZMALCOLM

In Response to Re: 30nl AA & nfd facing raise on flop.:

It seems this thread is just about done. I auto shoved, and got called by top 2, 67cc. Was 53% but couldn't win the flip.  Thanx to all that contributed. GT replied 2pm. 
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

Replied to your orginal post before reading this.
As he only had two pair you made the right move. Like I said before I don't have the bottle  in that situation.
unlucky all the same.