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set mining with queens @ NL4
Ok oppo in this hand was seriously tight. He was on two of my tables, not playing many hands, (lowest of the 2 stacks was 300BB) and this was the first time id seen him 3bet another tight player. I put him onto a very tight range. Is set mining ok in this spot, this deep?
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| x | Small blind | £0.02 | £0.02 | £21.66 | |
| ZedsDeadBa | Big blind | £0.04 | £0.06 | £3.96 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| The_Don90 | Raise | £0.20 | £0.26 | £10.88 | |
| diamond8 | Fold | ||||
| jaybeekay | Fold | ||||
| stien | Fold | ||||
| x | Raise | £0.82 | £1.08 | £20.84 | |
| ZedsDeadBa | Fold | ||||
| The_Don90 | Call |
Comments
Also that table looks rough, Zeds is reggy from past knowledge, stien isn't bad lol, you're a REG and you say x is tight too, NL4 getting hard clearly.
You can tell the players that are playing with your guide though Dohhhhh )
So yeah it is getting harder or easier depending on how you look at it
Table selection is important at NL4, more than 2 regs and it just ain't worth it tbh
At least you have position
Kinda thinking if oppo has shown AA/KK already in a two hour session, then it's highly likely oppo has not got it unless oppo is just running like god
If you're set mining then you're probably gonna stack him just as often with a set of 2s as you are with a set Aces, so if you are JUST set mining then your QQ might aswell be 22 now and I don't believe you ever flat this bet with 22.
I've had AA in back to back hands on the same table a couple of times. There's no way you can say he's had it once recently so he won't have it now.
don, unless you play this guy day in day out you cant put him on a range of 2 hands just because he "3" bets, and if he does only 3 bet with aa or kk then he is a very very bad player. i would suggest this is more a csae of negitive thinking due to bad results. 4 bet to £3.20 and stop being a wuss!
@Lambert
I just use all information I have to make a decision, if you have no information then you have to go with what you've got. Is this really ridic ) We are talking about the law of averages here !
While it's possible to have AA/KK dealt within a short space of time, the fact is you just dont unless your a fucky lucker
Don has QQ, if oppo has recently shown AA/KK then frankly 4 bet looking to get it in
If oppo shows up again with AA/KK then hey ho, well f^^k me down run better
Does oppo never 3 bet like this with AK/JJ !!
Even on this occasion you are right, what about when your wrong.
Would it not be better to know oppo's 3 betting range in these spots
Do we need more reads for this flat ?
open to the floor.....................
I'm not sure exactly what the odds are of being dealt AA but it's really not as unlikely as people think. Very roughly I think it's something like 1/169 but the odds of it happening again 20 mins later are still 1/169 and we just have no idea whether this guy is on the worst run bad of his life or is running like god, I've heard of people getting AA pre 3 hands in a row. I'm not saying it's likely, you're probably never gonna see that happen but I wouldnt like to base my decisions on the random odds of random cards being dealt.
So just logically speaking 9 times combined you'll put in 180BBs and ok if you stack him when you hit that once you get 200BBs but can you really be sure you're gonna stack EVERY time you hit the set?? What happens when you hit the set and only win 100BBs, then you're 80BBs down.
So....
Situation 1. oppo has shown AA & KK in the last two hours
Are you more likely to 4 bet
Situation 2. oppo has not played a hand for two hours
are you more likely to flat
If the situation/dynamics at the table do not affect your decision then what do you base your next move on ?
Oppo raises three time on the bounce, you have 9's - what do you do ?
oppo not moved a chip for an hour raises, you have 9's - what do you do ?
cmon lets play poker
Imo you dont set mine with QQ , virtually never , if ure like mega deep and have very gd info on oppo then maybe BUT over time im sure this MUST be a losing strategy.
I wont do it , i will get it in pre with QQ or if my info on oppo is spot on and am 99% sure they have AA or KK then i will fold.
But yeah you have to know for certain oppo's range is AA/KK if you ever consider flatting here
In essence it highlights Don's 4 betting range as AA/KK
I think Don is saying this was very player dependant )
tbh, the worst hand i cud put him on was QQ, however because i have QQ thats very very unlikley. AK is possible, but im sorry but im not comfortable flipping for 500BB pot,
Against 90% of players ill 4bet QQ however v a guy whos range i have as narrow i just dnt think its +EV
Os say it runs out like this,
I 4 bet to 3.20
He 5bets
Now i have to fold.
Easier to call 86p flop a Queen or fold surley
One of the biggest mistakes made by weak pot limit and no limit players is to over estimate just how much money they can win later on by calling with a weak hand, hoping to hit a big flop and win a big pot cracking a big hand. Although implied odds are an important concept in big bet games, they can very easily be over used, and if they are, can quickly become a huge leak in your game.
The bottom line of this is very simple - good players have very poor implied odds when you come up against them. Just like in all forms of poker, good players win more with their strong hands, and lose less with their weak hands, than bad players do. This means that regularly in pots where they hold even quite big pre flop hands, that they will be able to get away with losing relatively small amounts, making your loose pre flop call actually a huge mistake, as you lose money every time you miss, and barely win anything even when you do hit.
This problem can become even more pronounced if you are quite bad at getting away from big hands yourself, as not only are they not paying you off much when you hit, but when the shoe is on the other foot you are losing much more - a dual effect that has huge consequences over the long run.