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EV Calc - GT Check last post!!!!

rancidrancid
edited December 2011 in The Poker Clinic
No, i think
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011

    Is this right, only answer yes or no – thanks -  

     

    Pre flop Pot £48

     

    Flop Equity 36%

     

    I bet £35

    oppo jam £376

    I call £341

    Pot £800

     

    +EV 

    +£69.76

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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    bump - 
    come on - hurting my head trying to get this right :D
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  • IDONKCALLUIDONKCALLU
    edited December 2011
    hurting my head looking at it lol 
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  • jimifloydjimifloyd
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    bump -  come on - hurting my head trying to get this right :D
    Posted by rancid
    -EV
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  • Poker_FailPoker_Fail
    edited December 2011
    You need to win 42.6% of the time for it to be profitable      341/800=0.42625
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  • jimifloydjimifloyd
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    You need to win 42.6% of the time for it to be profitable      341/800=0.42625
    Posted by Poker_Fail
    Did you get my message Poker_Fail do you want what i uploaded for you?
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct? : -EV
    Posted by jimifloyd
    figures are right but it's -EV ?
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  • EvilPinguEvilPingu
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct? : figures are right but it's -EV ?
    Posted by rancid
    Nope. You're calling £341 to make a pot of £800. Therefore, if you win the hand 341/800 times (As others have said, about 42.6% of the time), you will break even. Any more than that and calling is +EV. Any less than that and it's -EV.

    (I think)
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  • jimifloydjimifloyd
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct? : figures are right but it's -EV ?
    Posted by rancid
    Sorry think this is the calculation 36% equity of winning £800- 64% chance of loosing £341 ,the amount you call.

    36% of £800 = £288 - 64% of 341=£218


    £288-£218 =    + EV £70
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct? : Sorry think this is the calculation 36% equity of winning £800- 64% chance of loosing £341 ,the amount you call. 36% of £800 = £288 - 64% of 341=£218 £288-£218 =    + EV £70
    Posted by jimifloyd

    Yeah, this is right then ) If so I got it nailed lol

    36% equity

    800 pot

    341 to call

    +EV £70

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  • jimifloydjimifloyd
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct? : Yeah, this is right then ) 36% equity 800 pot 341 to call +EV £70
    Posted by rancid

    I was right the first time lol.

    36% £459 = £165 roughly - 64% £341 =£218

    £165-£218 = EV -£53
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  • jimifloydjimifloyd
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct? : I was right the first time lol. 36% £459 = £165 roughly - 64% £341 =£218 £165-£218 = EV -£53
    Posted by jimifloyd
    When you asked me if it was minus ev i re-checked using the entire pot but it's the amount of the pot at the time you have to call.
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct? : When you asked me if it was minus ev i re-checked using the entire pot but it's the amount of the pot at the time you have to call.
    Posted by jimifloyd
    man, your confusing me lol
    With respect I think your wrong :S

    edit: no I think your right actually :()

    Thought it was the total amount to win, being 800

    I make it -£53 EV

    makes sense now
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  • jimifloydjimifloyd
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct? : man, your confusing me lol With respect I think your wrong :S edit: no I think your right actually :() Thought it was the total amount to win, being 800 I make it -£53 EV
    Posted by rancid
    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/831/captureuwb.jpg/


    No probs your pressuring me so much i may re-check again and you know what happened last time,lol.
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct? : http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/831/captureuwb.jpg/ No probs your pressuring me so much i may re-check again and you know what happened last time,lol.
    Posted by jimifloyd


     I worked it out so many times and could not fathom why it kept saying it was +EV

    So size of pot when calling, I suppose if we were shoving it's the size of the pot we shove into )



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  • grantorinograntorino
    edited December 2011
    In Response to EV Calc - is this correct?:
    Is this right, only answer yes or no – thanks -     Pre flop Pot £48   Flop Equity 36%   I bet £35 oppo jam £376 I call £341 Pot £800   +EV  +£69.76
    Posted by rancid
    Wrong, but others have done calcs correctly above

    EV= x(P)-(1-x)(C)

    where x = probability of winning, P= amount in pot C= amount to call

    In this case 0.36(459)-0.64(341)=-53

    Amount of equity needed to call a bet = C/(P+C), in this case 341/800= 0.426=42.6%
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    In Response to EV Calc - is this correct? : Wrong, but others have done calcs correctly above EV= x(P)-(1-x)(C) where x = probability of winning, P= amount in pot C= amount to call In this case 0.36(459)-0.64(341)=-53 Amount of equity needed to call a bet = C/(P+C), in this case 341/800= 0.426=42.6%
    Posted by grantorino
    Bout time GT, was wondering when you was going to give me a great answer )
    We got there in the end though EDIT -£53          LOL

    So the Equity should be worked out at the time of the call ? confused
    ranged it etc... and on flop I have 36%
    What's this 42.6%, maybe you just work it out another way :S


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  • grantorinograntorino
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct? :  I worked it out so many times and could not fathom why it kept saying it was +EV So size of pot when calling, I suppose if we were shoving it's the size of the pot we shove into )
    Posted by rancid
    Do you mean when your shove is a raise? If so you need to factor FE into calc. If you think you have none just use pot size as whats in it+ his call and your shove as the call amount

    If you are using fold equity=F, x =equity when called, C= amount villain must call P=pot B= your bet (total inc amount to call any bet villain may have made)

    EV=F(P)+(1-F)[x(P+C)+(1-x)(B)]

    Ev calcs useless unless your estimates of fold equity and equity in pot are accurate

    Did this in a hurry so there may be mistakes
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  • pod1pod1
    edited December 2011
    all i know is that if i am calling off 300 quid with only 30 quid of my own money in there, i got da nutz. next

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  • grantorinograntorino
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct? : Bout time GT, was wondering when you was going to give me a great answer ) We got there in the end though +£53 So the Equity should be worked out at the time of the call ? confused ranged it etc... and on flop I have 36% What's this 42.6%, maybe you just work it out another way :S
    Posted by rancid
    Its -53, so -EV:) as calculated by jimi and maybe others just glanced at thread

    Im assuming your 36% figure for your equity in pot is correct

    42.6% is the equity required for your call to be breakeven
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  • IDONKCALLUIDONKCALLU
    edited December 2011
    - ev + ev ev this ev that wtf is going on lol seriously do u lot live eat breed poker y not have a beer and chillax :)
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  • jimifloydjimifloyd
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct? : Bout time GT, was wondering when you was going to give me a great answer ) We got there in the end though +£53 So the Equity should be worked out at the time of the call ? confused ranged it etc... and on flop I have 36% What's this 42.6%, maybe you just work it out another way :S
    Posted by rancid
    42.6% is your pot odds expressed as a percentage.

    your call divided by total pot.
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  • jimifloydjimifloyd
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct? : 42.6% is your pot odds expressed as a percentage. your call divided by total pot.
    Posted by jimifloyd
    GT calculated it the other way.

    36% equity on the flop minus your pot odds expressed as a percentage 341/800 =42.6%

    If your equity on the flop is greater than your pot odds its +EV
    If your equity on the flop is less than the pot odds its -EV.

    So 42.6-36%= 6.6%
    6.6% of total pot £800 = £53 rounded up as your equity is less than your pot odds its -EV

    EV -£53

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  • pod1pod1
    edited December 2011
    woooosh!
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  • Poker_FailPoker_Fail
    edited December 2011
    Rancid, the easiest and least confusing way of getting the answer to this is simply: ammount you have to call divided by what the total pot will be if you call.

    So in this scenario 341/800 = 0.42625 or 42.6%

    EDIT: didn't realise jimi beat me to the simplifying lol
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  • jugglegeekjugglegeek
    edited December 2011
    I'm suprised that a formula is necessary to work out that calling an all in is bad when we have 36% chance of winning the pot and we are paying £341 to win £459. We are getting 1.34:1 pot odds and 36% is roughly 2:1 against right.

    Of course you shouldn't call. However it might be +ev to shove if the situation was reversed. If he bet out then we can shove with 36% equity if we think that the opponent will fold a significant amount of time (about 1/3rd of the time I think)
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  • grantorinograntorino
    edited December 2011

    @pokerfail and jugglegeek

    Yes calculating pot odds, whether you express them as pot odds or a percentage is prob the quickest and easiest way to decide whether to call or fold. Its also usually easy enough to do at table and works well for most situations facing a shove

    But OP specifically asked about calculating his EV and also EV calcs have certain advantages

    They put a monetary value on your actions
    You can use it to compare two +EV lines (although the calcs get pretty complicated)

    Again its important to stress that any math like this is totally dependent on calculating ranges correctly

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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct? : Do you mean when your shove is a raise? If so you need to factor FE into calc. If you think you have none just use pot size as whats in it+ his call and your shove as the call amount If you are using fold equity=F, x =equity when called, C= amount villain must call P=pot B= your bet (total inc amount to call any bet villain may have made) EV=F(P)+(1-F)[x(P+C)+(1-x)(B)] Ev calcs useless unless your estimates of fold equity and equity in pot are accurate Did this in a hurry so there may be mistakes
    Posted by grantorino
    Thanks everyone )
    Cheers GT so if raising factor in FE
    then total equity would = our current equity + fold equity
    Fold equity = (chance our opponent will fold as a percentage) * (opponent's equity in the hand as a percentage).


    So the 42% is neutral EV, 341/800 = .42 (42%)

    Starting to fall into place

    also GT - ICM based

    Do you know a quick way to work our you stack equity in £ - say there's 10 left
    Something you can calculate in game quickly


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  • grantorinograntorino
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct? : Thanks everyone ) Cheers GT so if raising factor in FE then total equity would = our current equity + fold equity Fold equity = (chance our opponent will fold as a percentage) * (opponent's equity in the hand as a percentage). So the 42% is neutral EV, 341/800 = .42 (42%) Starting to fall into place also GT - ICM based Do you know a quick way to work our you stack equity in £ - say there's 10 left Something you can calculate in game quickly
    Posted by rancid
    Not sure exactly what you are saying but what you have written above sounds wrong. The potsizes are different when they fold and when they get it in, Im pretty sure you cant just add equities

    Yeah 42% is the breakeven point on a call

    Fold Equity = % chance villain will fold

    For example, lets say you think you have 40% fold equity and 20% equity when called

    3 outcomes
    He folds, you win on average                    0.4*pot
    He calls, you win, you win on  average        0.6*0.2*(Pot +his call)
    He calls, you lose, you lose on average      0.6*0.8*(Amount you shoved)

    The formula above basically combines these 3 calcs

    As for ICM cant do that myself, there are free online ICM calculators online for tournaments. Havent used them much though, but I'd imagine playing around with them would improve your grasp of when to shove/call it off in business end of tournaments

    EDIT: just seen you asked specifically about £equity of your stack, this should be possible to calculate imo, but I tried before and couldnt, even for dyms.
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct?:
    Rancid, the easiest and least confusing way of getting the answer to this is simply: ammount you have to call divided by what the total pot will be if you call. So in this scenario 341/800 = 0.42625 or 42.6% EDIT: didn't realise jimi beat me to the simplifying lol
    Posted by Poker_Fail
    Cheers,

     I know how to work out if it's a call ... just pushing on a bit deeper

    thanks anyway m8'ty

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