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I am going off on one so apoliges, just looking at how to work our FE and how this affects our total equity in raise situations- be it shoving with equity or bluffing with no equity
This is my source online, figures are from an example
Now let's find our total equity in the hand.
If we work out our total equity we can then work out EV
I can just place total equity into my basic formula, as yours just looks a bit much m8
This is more after the game looking back at hands, using tools and calcus we simply can not use in game because we have not got the time
Still think it goes a long way in given yourself a deeper understanding
1. I may be using the term fold equity slightly incorrectly, in my calcs the number I'm plugging in is just the percentage they fold, which prob isnt exactly what fold equity means (not sure exactly tbh)
2. Whats above doesnt make much sense to me for calculating EV, doesnt mean its wrong, just never seen anything like it before. Looks to be some sort of estimate of equity in current pot we gain by him folding. Things that confuse me about it when using it to calculate EV include-
What difference does his equity make if he folds?
How can we just add the equities together, when the pot sizes we win and the amount we lose are not equal?
3. If you post the basic EV formula you plug this into it might make more sense
4. Im pretty sure my formula works, it shouldnt be that hard to understand the math as done in my last post. You can also use it to calculate the % of time you need him to fold by letting it =0 and work out F
Not saying what you have above is wrong, just not able to fully follow it. Where's it from btw?
It's from here (Pokerbank), I find it easy to follow and have done from the start
So I am not going to start messing about using your formulas )
But anyway I think your FE is incorrect, but I could be wrong
http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/equity/fold/
I'll follow this up at some point, bit frazzled
What I dont understand is how you propose to use this total equity as a single value in an EV calc as we win/lose different amounts depending on action, the fact that he has 0 Equity in pot when he folds and also the fact that our EV v his current range is not the same as EV against the range that calls .
You say you plug this into some formula, what is it?
Also calcs I use really arent that complicated, maybe look more complicated when written in a single formula like that. PM me if you want it explained more
GT
Calling down formula I have
P=Pot (Amount in Pot)
E=Equity (Your equity)
-C=Amount to call (Amount you stand to lose)
OE= oppo equity (opponents equity)
(P x E) + (-C x OE)
(459 x .36) + (-341x.64)
(165.24) + (-218.24)
= -53
If we have to factor in Fold equity then we add our FE onto our equity and subtract from our opponents equity ?
I can’t get to grips with your formula tbh
How do I insert the FE into the above formula ? Struggling here !!!
Fold equity = (chance our opponent will fold) * (opponent's equity in the hand).
Yeah your EV calc looks fine, and is exactly the same as the one I posted for calling (Just different letters, notation). I dont think you can squeeze a single equity figure into that calc and get a proper answer for when we raise for reasons I gave above. I think that total equity calc will give you equity in current pot, but not factor in the raise or call. (I may be wrong on all that, but thats the way it seems to me).
I'm not using FE as defined in pokerbank in the calc for when we raise, just how often he folds
I may be using different letters than in my original calc, but let
F= How often he folds
P=Current pot size
E = Equity when called
B= Amount we shove into pot
C= Amount he calls
The 3 parts to the calc are:
He folds we win F*P ie Probability he folds * Amount in pot
He calls we win (1-F)*E*(P+C) ie Probability he calls*Probability we win*Amount we win
He calls we lose (1-F)*(1-E)*B ie Probability he calls* Probability we lose*Amount we lose
Note: If our equity is E, (1-E) is opponents equity, if he folds F, he calls (1-F)
You can combine into a single formula:
FP+(1-F)[E(P+C)-(1-E)B] (This just takes 1-F out as a common factor)
The good news if you still have to decide if raise or call is better
Last post was about working out FE
Fold equity = (chance our opponent will fold) * (opponent's equity in the hand).
Fold equity = (0.5) * (57.4).
Fold equity = 28.8%.
Now let's find our total equity in the hand.
Total equity = our current equity + fold equity.
Total equity = 42.4% + 28.8%.
Total equity = 71.2%.
I've posted two EV calcs, one for calling one for raising. I think both are correct. If you think there is a mistake or want more help with them let me know. If you dont want to use them thats fine too
I'm sure that fold equity thing is prob correct, and that total equity seems ok as a theoretical calc. To me it looks like it calculates equity in current pot (not sure on this, could well be wrong). This seems a little irrelevant to me as his equity doesnt matter if he folds (for EV calc) and when he calls the potsize has changed and the fold equity part is redundant. Cant see how you would use it in an EV calc, certainly not without some other figure. Also your equity against his current range is nearly always bigger than your equity against the part of his range whch calls a shove
There may be a way of using that Fold Equity/Total Equity to calculate EV but I cant see what it would be, and it seems likely that you would need more figures if you can. If there is a way I cant help you with it, if you find one I'd be interested to see it
Yeah sorry GT, this whole thread is me asking for help )
It is going nowhere )
I am re focusing now because I have lost my way on this.
Trying to work on the fundamentals below
“You multiply the results of the possible outcomes by their probability of happening, and then you add all them together”
I can work out EV when calling down – no problem )
Calculating EV when factoring in FE is where I am really struggling.
I think I’ll go back and understand the fundamentals then look at your formula again as I am sure it’s right.
Currently working through this:
. The 3 steps to calculating EV (with the boxes method).
. List all the possible outcomes of that action. (Make the boxes)
. Find the probability and the win/loss of each outcome. (Fill the boxes)
. Put it all together in an equation and work it out. (Solve the boxes)
If you want to PM me and explain your formula then please do, I am sure you know what your talking about.
Thanks for everything GT
Great help as always
Another EV Calc, does this look right
Pre flop pot £48
Oppo bets £12
Hero jams £80
Oppo has to call £68
Fold Equity = 35%, Oppo calls 65%
Hero Pot Equity =20%, oppo equity 80%
+EV £2.60 ??????????
Fold:0.35(60)=21
Call, we win: 0.65(0.2)(128)=16.64
Call, we lose: 0.65(0.8)(80)=41.6
So EV= 21+16.64-41.6=-3.96
or directly into formula I posted above
0.35(60)+0.65[(0.2)(128)-(0.8)(80)]=-3.96
The stuff you posted above about multiplying probabilities is what you need to do. Thats what my calc does. There are 3 possible outcomes, we work out probability for each, and multiply each probability by profit/loss for each. Add together to find overall EV.
Its very possible there is a mistake in my calcs, if you think there is one let me know
FOLD EQUITY = Our opponent folds.
We win 60 (this is what’s currently in the pot) 35% of the time.
60 x 0.35 = 21
POT EQUITY 1 = Our opponent calls and we improve to make the best hand.
We win 128, 20% of the time.
128 x 20 = 25.60
POT EQUITY 2 = Our opponent calls and we don’t improve.
We lose 80, 80% of the time.
-80 x 0.80 = -64
EV = Fold Equity + Pot Equity
EV = (21 + { 0.65 x [ (25.60) - (64) ] }
EV = (21 + {-24.96}
EV = -3.96
3rd last line of your post = formula I gave
If you want to work out fold equity required to breakeven put formula=0 and solve for F, but we will leave that for another day