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Lambert180

In Response to Re: Posted on the behalf of a donk who says his play top class:

In Response to Re: Posted on the behalf of a donk who says his play top class : u need to read the post m8 its not about the out draw for 100th time, its about playing 96 and simular hands long term. So can I point out been playing long enough to know beats happen and I do take them on the chin thats poker and all the sh it and sh ite
Posted by waynec

And as GT said, you're missing the point. It's situation dependent, so if he's getting the odds to call here then YES it is good play long term.

You can't just say if something is good or bad just by the hand. I.E Calling a 100BB open shove with 96off is HORRIBLE long term and you'll get butchered.

On the other hand, calling 5 chips to see a flop and be in a pot worth 5000 chips is EXCELLENT long term.

So you can't just say JTs, is it good long term?

LOL_RAISE

ok lets say at every point throughout a HU hand we have exactly 33.3333% equity and villain bets 'pot' on every street. since villain bets pot we are getting 2:1 on our money and therefore 33.333% is the correct equity needed for a call to be breakeven. lets see how it goes....

nl100
villain (SB) raises to 3
we call 2

flop XXX   pot = 6
villain pots, we call

turn XXXX pot = 18
villain pots we call

river XXXX pot = 54
villain pots, we call.  final potsize = 162.

on everystreet we have had the correct equity for a call to be breakeven, but we don't breakeven from this hand longterm.

66.6666% of the time villain wins. net result = -81bbs.
33.3333% of the time we win.       net result = +81bbs

66.6666*-0.81  + 33.3333*0.81 = -54+27
                                               = -27bbs we lose everytime we play this hand.

but all our calls are correct given the odds and percentages, so howcome we lose?


*nb* i might have messed the maths up, but im pretty certain i havent.

Epoker

Well, do you owe him a tenner or not?