Is shove correct or can I call?

SJspanky1

My thinking here is I have a ton of outs but if I flat his reraise and a heart hits I lose my chance to stack him.
Obviously result was bad for me but was it the wrong play? (Been watching Top of The Pots repeat earlier and I'm pretty sure all the big boys would do same as me here....(well Peg1 and Sam1986 would anyways!!)

joburns06	Small blind		£0.25	£0.25	£5.52
richtea	Big blind		£0.50	£0.75	£49.50
	Your hole cards	7 6
SJspanky1	Raise		£1.50	£2.25	£63.47
britrock	Call		£1.50	£3.75	£64.53
iwojima03	Call		£1.50	£5.25	£114.71
Jibbz	Fold
joburns06	Fold
richtea	Fold
Flop
		5 A 4
SJspanky1	Bet		£3.00	£8.25	£60.47
britrock	Raise		£11.44	£19.69	£53.09
iwojima03	Fold
SJspanky1	All-in		£60.47	£80.16	£0.00
britrock	Call		£52.03	£132.19	£1.06
SJspanky1	Show	7 6
britrock	Show	5 5
Turn
		K
River
		7
britrock	Win	Three 5s	£130.39		£131.45

WHOAMI196

Set is the worst hand to be up against(stating the obvious lol), pokerstove says its exactly a 60%-40% situation, I would never expect to be up against any big ace here, ever. Im all ways happy to ship it in with monster draws, but contrary to what i said in similar spot in another thread (but in micro stakes), i would flat call this EDIT: you'r too deep to shove imo.

Expecting higher lever of play, cant see oppo raising worse than 2 pair(which is a flip btw). Villain is probably putting you on a ace, that should show strength on his part, could be polarised if he was a tricky player, but i doubt this.

So i would call flop, call turn if i am getting correct odds; otherwise fold. With how this hand played villain is never bluffing, or doing it with a 1 pair hand.

rancid

looks fine

CrazyBen23

Is calling amd c/f if you miss too weak? Hmm...britrock has done what most 50nl regs genrously do, and turn his hand face up so getting it in as stated above is -ev

rancid

In Response to Re: Is shove correct or can I call?:

Is calling amd c/f if you miss too weak? Hmm...britrock has done what most 50nl regs genrously do, and turn his hand face up so getting it in as stated above is -ev
Posted by CrazyBen23

Banana skins____________>

How does it run –EV

 

Maybe I am missing something in my head calculations, thought it was very slightly +EV even with no FE – does oppo never raise leads with air/hands that fold – can you give me 2% FE at least )

 

Edit: -EV all day

huuuuume

you have zero fold equity and zero chance that this villain has anything other than a set.  his hand is completely face up.  he never has A5 or A4 and will never reraise a flush draw of any kind

what does poker stove say when you know his hand is either 55 or 66?

peg1

In Response to Is shove correct or can I call?:

My thinking here is I have a ton of outs but if I flat his reraise and a heart hits I lose my chance to stack him. Obviously result was bad for me but was it the wrong play? (Been watching Top of The Pots repeat earlier and I'm pretty sure all the big boys would do same as me here....(well Peg1 and Sam1986 would anyways!!) joburns06 Small blind   £0.25 £0.25 £5.52 richtea Big blind   £0.50 £0.75 £49.50   Your hole cards 7 6       SJspanky1 Raise   £1.50 £2.25 £63.47 britrock Call   £1.50 £3.75 £64.53 iwojima03 Call   £1.50 £5.25 £114.71 Jibbz Fold         joburns06 Fold         richtea Fold         Flop     5 A 4       SJspanky1 Bet   £3.00 £8.25 £60.47 britrock Raise   £11.44 £19.69 £53.09 iwojima03 Fold         SJspanky1 All-in   £60.47 £80.16 £0.00 britrock Call   £52.03 £132.19 £1.06 SJspanky1 Show 7 6       britrock Show 5 5       Turn     K       River     7       britrock Win Three 5s £130.39   £131.45
Posted by SJspanky1

In my oppinion hand played itself, I defo would of played it this way, at this stack, obv deeper you are you have more options

you win some and you lose some, but like the aggression

BigBluster

You're overlooking the re-draw.

You have theoretically fifteen outs, but even if you hit on the turn the villain has ten outs for the redraw (he has 7 outs that kill you instantly). If you had 5 clean outs would you get it all in? I doubt it.
The sums aren't exact but close enough for the discussion.

NColley

In Response to Re: Is shove correct or can I call?:

Is calling amd c/f if you miss too weak? Hmm...britrock has done what most 50nl regs genrously do, and turn his hand face up so getting it in as stated above is -ev
Posted by CrazyBen23

If villian only ever has a set here I think you could prob peel a turn if villian still stacks if the flush comes/ however if flush comes and he check behind on turn its pretty hard to get money in on river unless you just overbet shove.

Poker_Fail

In Response to Re: Is shove correct or can I call?:

In Response to Re: Is shove correct or can I call? : If villian only ever has a set here I think you could prob peel a turn if villian still stacks if the flush comes/ however if flush comes and he check behind on turn its pretty hard to get money in on river unless you just overbet shove.
Posted by NColley

The straight would be much more hidden too

DAVEYZZ

you call flat call here in the knowledge that NO ONE on here will ever fold a set to a flushed board

IDONKCALLU

im never shipping here id flat call the raise and if a brick on the turn easy fold if you hit your str8 or flush u would of still got opponents stack he aint folding a set if u hit so a call for me on the flop 

AMYBR

For me it just depends on what I want/What I believe opponent does.

Do we want him to call?  I would say yes.  Thinks he b/fs a potion of hands we'd rather keep in here.  Wanting him to call, I raise a committing amount that forces him to shove. 

I want his whole stack here tbh and I dont want to give him a reason to sigh fold.

But once deciding that, we cannot care about the result. We want to make a bet that gets called or re shipped on.  Doubtful he flats when we do this.  If he does, we have already decided to ship any turn obv.

I'd never call, but i dont shove simply as I dont want to lose customer, unless I'm reasonably sure he calls.  What more do we wany from the flop?

Then I'll get a biscuit while the board runs.  If rolled result is immaterial.  Seems to me we are 6/4 fav territory here  despite opponent being at very top of his range as seen.

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: Is shove correct or can I call?:

For me it just depends on what I want/What I believe opponent does. Do we want him to call?  I would say yes.  Thinks he b/fs a tonne of hands here.  Wanting him to call I raise a committing amount that forces him to shove.  I want his whole stack here tbh and I dont want to give him a reason to sigh fold. But once deciding that, we want to make a bet that gets called or re shipped on.  Doubtful he flats whenb we do this.  If he does we have already decided to ship any turn obv. I'd never call, but i dont shove simply as I dont want to lose customer, unless I'm reasonably sure he calls. Then I'll get a biscuit while the board runs.  If rolled result is immaterial.  Seems to me we are 6/4 fav territory.
Posted by AMYBR

u realise we have 7 high?:S

AMYBR

Your such a WUM

This hand is simple imo if rolled.

Do we not want to get as much money in with highest point of equity?

Do we really want to c/f turn?  In honesty, will we be?  Doubtful.

We raise UTG for with suited connectors looking to flop practically this board.  Make a decision, step on the gas and let the board run.  To do anything else in this hand, in cash, when rolled would be silly,

DOHHHHHHH

If I'm jamming i'd much prefer a fold than a call.

A semi-bluff is still a bluff? Therefore we want a fold?

If he could ever be making a play on this board ofc its a no brainer as we got fold eq but his bet sizing suggests he isn't this time. 

It's alright saying "we've got the perfect flop for our hand", but so has he. Gotta look beyond our hand & the board & see how we do against his range. 

Which isn't very well.

In game I'd just snap shove n say f it, but I think that's wrong. 

CrazyBen23

This clinic is so grim, in the 2nd post whoami stated we are 40/60, dont think about ranges, he has a set all the time, he might aswell of wrote it in the chat box

BigBluster

In Response to Re: Is shove correct or can I call?:

If I'm jamming i'd much prefer a fold than a call. A semi-bluff is still a bluff? Therefore we want a fold? If he could ever be making a play on this board ofc its a no brainer as we got fold eq but his bet sizing suggests he isn't this time.  It's alright saying "we've got the perfect flop for our hand", but so has he. Gotta look beyond our hand & the board & see how we do against his range.  Which isn't very well. In game I'd just snap shove n say f it, but I think that's wrong. 
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

Spot on. In the heat of battle I'd probably ship it too, but on analysis shipping is clearly the wrong play.

AMYBR

Even vs the top of his range here (which in this spot he has) we should have no issue getting it in for 1BI on flop as slight favourite.

In my more risk averse days I'd prob agree with you.  But we need to be realistic on what options we give ourselves on later streets in this hand.

We have flopped the world draw with 120bb's.  Even against the rarity where opponent is at the top of his range this is a no brainer..

Yes Doh we are semi bluffing, but I dont agree we definately want a fold.  Once we have made our decision on flop that we are in for the whole journey and we are comfortable playing for our stack outcome regardless, I prefer a raise that ensures stacks go in, rather than allows a fold.

SJspanky1

As CrazyBen states it was pretty obvious that the villain had a set here. I just couldn't live with myself if I  call with suited connectors, hit just about the ultimate drawing flop and then don't commit to the hand. Result was immaterial IMO but I wanted to know the general concensus.

It seems mathematically that I make the wrong play here but Peg liked it and he's my hero so I'll live with it.

Might not click that all-in quite so quick next time mind.....

rancid

 

Funny thing is you have semi bluffed once by leading flop

Then we semi bluff again, only a bluff raise we fold out

Maybe c/r flop is better

NColley

In Response to Re: Is shove correct or can I call?:

Even vs the top of his range here (which in this spot he has) we should have no issue getting it in for 1BI on flop as slight favourite. In my more risk averse days I'd prob agree with you.  But we need to be realistic on what options we give ourselves on later streets in this hand. We have flopped the world draw with 120bb's.  Even against the rarity where opponent is at the top of his range this is a no brainer.. Yes Doh we are semi bluffing, but I dont agree we definately want a fold.  Once we have made our decision on flop that we are in for the whole journey and we are comfortable playing for our stack outcome regardless, I prefer a raise that ensures stacks go in, rather than allows a fold.
Posted by AMYBR

IF VILLIAN ALWAYS HAS A SET HERE A SHOVE IS MINUS EV, IF WE ALWAYS GET IT IN AS A 40% DOG THEN IN THE LONG RUN WE LOSE MONEY...

AMYBR

In Response to Re: Is shove correct or can I call?:

In Response to Re: Is shove correct or can I call? : IF VILLIAN ALWAYS HAS A SET HERE A SHOVE IS MINUS EV, IF WE ALWAYS GET IT IN AS A 40% DOG THEN IN THE LONG RUN WE LOSE MONEY...
Posted by NColley

A) Never said shove.

Why are we assuming opponent ALWAYS has set?, would be silly.

C) We are not a 40% dog.  8 hearts 6 straightners 14 outs 2.2 x 14 x 2 = 61%  Even shaving 2 outs off gives us a slight edge @ 51%.

We need to look at the hand realistically.  We raise UTG, flop the world and then look to lose the Minimum?  Are we really going to be giving up if we miss turn.......Sigh...

NColley

In Response to Re: Is shove correct or can I call?:

In Response to Re: Is shove correct or can I call? : A) Never said shove. Why are we assuming opponent ALWAYS has set?, would be silly. C) We are not a 40% dog.  8 hearts 6 straightners 14 outs 2.2 x 14 x 2 = 61%  Even shaving 2 outs off gives us a slight edge @ 51%. We need to look at the hand realistically.  We raise UTG, flop the world and then look to lose the Minimum?  Are we really going to be giving up if we miss turn.......Sigh...
Posted by AMYBR

Look at crazyben/huuume's posts, 2 players both say this guy only has a set here.. huuuume says this guy never raises a FD/1 pair or 2 pair.

50% you say?


---
   5,940  games     0.080 secs    74,250  games/sec

Board: 5h Ah 4c
Dead: 

 equity  win  tie        pots won  pots tied 
Hand 0:  40.202%   40.20%  00.00%            2388          0.00   { 7h6h }
Hand 1:  59.798%   59.80%  00.00%            3552          0.00   { 55-44 }

---

rancid

Depends on your read on oppo, could be raising a range of hands but without reads you have to say top of range – set = -EV

If oppo is only raising here with top of range then it’s vey easy for us to play this hand versus this oppo

DOHHHHHHH

What's our equity if you build in AK/2 pair hands?

Making 1 pair isn't gonna be good anyway, does it improve 'that much' if we take away his re-draw?

Even a better flush draw aint a great result for us?

NColley

---
  44,550  games     0.001 secs    44,550,000  games/sec

Board: 5c 4h Ah
Dead: 

 equity  win  tie        pots won  pots tied 
Hand 0:  49.928%   49.93%  00.00%           22243          0.00   { 7h6h }
Hand 1:  50.072%   50.07%  00.00%           22307          0.00   { 55-44, AKs, A5s-A4s, 54s, AKo, A5o-A4o, 54o }

---

rancid

In Response to Re: Is shove correct or can I call?:

What's our equity if you build in AK/2 pair hands? Making 1 pair isn't gonna be good anyway, does it improve 'that much' if we take away his re-draw? Even a better flush draw aint a great result for us?
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

Don't think we are better off even versus btm of range - AK (think 45/55) - obviously versus bluff we golden but....._)
Someone do the stove bit :S

edit: colley done it ) Think range is too wide - only AK seems resonable to raise here

SJspanky1

Well I'm kinda chuffed this post has opened up such a debate. My most popular thread by far...

Seems the decision here really boils down to our basest tendencies, the more nit like take the less aggressive line, the aggro guys would go shove with it...No denying that its a -EV move though...PokerStove never tells fibs.

Be nice if I could post a hand where I actually win and get a similar response

NColley

I think that instead of posting the full hand you should of cut it off straight after britrock raises the flop and asked what people would of done.

Pretty sure that the 50nl regs would be saying something similar to what they did 'this guy always has a set here'

LOL_RAISE

need fe for jam to be +ev
we prob dont have fe in this spot