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IMPORTANT; HERE IS THE GRAND NATIONAL WINNER!!
contained in a little story.
POSTMASTER VIC VENTURI, a WEST END ROCKER ACCORDING TO PETE went to PLANET OF SOUND ON HIS OWN BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE DEEP PURPLE at THE MIDNIGHT CLUB, KILLYGLEN through the MIDNIGHT HAZE and the ORGANISED CONFUSION.
HELLO BUD, WIERD AL, SWING BILL, RARE BOB AND GILES CROSS JUNIOR of CHICAGO GREY SYNCHRONISED IN COMPLIANCE with ALFA BEAT whose SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM was ALWAYS WAINING at the NEPTUNE COLLONGES club in CALGARY BAY.
Meanwhile SUNNYHILL BOY, with he's LE BEAU BAI and his MON MOME eating SEABASS, BLACK APALACHI TREACLE followed by a CAPPA BLEU at the ARBOR SUPREME in BALLABRIGGS knew the STATE OF PLAY with THARAWAAT, QUISCOVER FONTAINE and TATENEN because he was ALWAYS RIGHT.
The moral of the story is that i am always right.
Father V
POSTMASTER VIC VENTURI, a WEST END ROCKER ACCORDING TO PETE went to PLANET OF SOUND ON HIS OWN BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE DEEP PURPLE at THE MIDNIGHT CLUB, KILLYGLEN through the MIDNIGHT HAZE and the ORGANISED CONFUSION.
HELLO BUD, WIERD AL, SWING BILL, RARE BOB AND GILES CROSS JUNIOR of CHICAGO GREY SYNCHRONISED IN COMPLIANCE with ALFA BEAT whose SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM was ALWAYS WAINING at the NEPTUNE COLLONGES club in CALGARY BAY.
Meanwhile SUNNYHILL BOY, with he's LE BEAU BAI and his MON MOME eating SEABASS, BLACK APALACHI TREACLE followed by a CAPPA BLEU at the ARBOR SUPREME in BALLABRIGGS knew the STATE OF PLAY with THARAWAAT, QUISCOVER FONTAINE and TATENEN because he was ALWAYS RIGHT.
The moral of the story is that i am always right.
Father V
Comments
killyglen most likely chance of winner, going great last year before falling a few out, connections buzzing about him, missed fancy ante post prices but ill be waiting to the day anyway, 16's now, hopefully will be in and around same come sat mornin, meets almost every trend over past 10 years, if i werent such a lazy get id put them up
the rest as e/w savers, trends met also on most parts, chicagos only real negative (apart from tendancy to be held up and might need luck in running) is the fact he is Grey ; )
Giles Cross must be there or thereabouts if he takes to Paddy Brennan
It's 10/1 now! I got it at 25/1 yesterday!
always right found the heavy too much in Haydock trial but has solid form good/soft, interesting
Bellpoker, I disagree with you re Giles Cross if ground heavy. I would go for his conqueror in the Welsh National Le Beau Bai.
You are right re West End Rocker, I backed him last year after seeing him win a Warwick race in deep mud and the conditions will be well in his favour this year. Also he has been laid out for this and I like the fact Wayne Hutchinson rides him instead of Choc.
With regards Always Right I now worry that the heavy over 4miles might be too much, however I just got the feeling he wasnt 100% fit for Haydock Trail. He was waltzing up to them before going out like a light two out. that usually means didnt get trip, yet he has won over 4miles, or one race short of full fitness and the trial has brought him on. It's anybody's guess. LOL
i think thats an argument best kept if it comes up heavy, which i a) sincerely hope not i do not want another red marauder race and b) would have to ditch my initial selections and side with all 3 - GC, LBB and WER.
but were talking rain of monsoon proportions and it probably wont happen and i probably wont have to
do we have any liverpuddlians on board with weather updates?
That's purely down to the chances of soft/heavy going. It NEEDS it. Grrrr I backed it for the Welsh National and did the stupid thing of counting my winnings 3 out.
What is your reading of the distance and heavy going re Le Beau Bai 10-3/33-1 and Giles Cross 10-1 and 14-1 battle . Which do you think should come out on top or is it too close to call and back both secenario. I fancy more value in Le Beau Bai but would like your opinions.
Father V
le beau bai far better value @ 40's for me
giles cross 25/1 the dude above got is a stonking price considering 10/1 places now, but its only (imo) guranteeing him a run, its not guaranteeing a victory!!
he'll go okay on soft as i said but both would relish a bog
thing with a bog is , it will inconvenience others and like the red maraunder race as I said and you'll know about too well Fr V, we'll only get a handful home, and these two should you'd imagine be bang there.
seperating the two, giles cross better jimper and more genuine, though like at chepstow, you kind of get the inkling that le beau bai will outstay him
BUT..........!!!! (and im getting the feeling ive largely contributed to this/even worse started it!!!) theres gonna have to be a lorra lorra rain for me to consider either (youre talking alot more than thats fallen so far)
i wouldnt back giles cross @ 12's good/soft , or even soft, as ive question marks about a few others gewtting home ahead of him who can handle that also, if it came up proper heavy id hammer him anything over 6/1 , hammer both and in the rv f/c also!!! ; )
It shows how difficult this years race is.
As far as I can see there are 5 horses tied together through the Welsh National 2010 and 2011runnings /Haydock Trial form that stand out above the others who ran in those races. They are LBB, Giles Cross, Synchronised, Cappa Bleu and Neptunes Collonges. to pick one of them is hard enough without forgetting the other 35.
Synchronised and GC have both improved but GC only has 5lb pull on 2010 Welsh running. GC has 7lb pull with Le Beau Bai on 2011 running. All like soft /heavy ground although the quicker it is I feel would be better for Synchronised. I think i can disregard Cappa Bleu as only has 2lb pull with GC on 2010 running and has gone backwards while GC improved, ok ground might be better for him but distance is untried.
Now Neptune, well he is 5lb worse off with GC on trial running when GC beat him on heavy and I think he ran a he ll uva race that day. I cant see him repeating it and I take it Ruby had choice of riding him.
So summing up.
Le Beau Bai is best value especially if a bog. other wise back Synchronised or GC.
Not bad thats five horses knocked down to 3. Now to start on other 35. LOL
I dont fancy Mon Mome, but why I ask, he's 6lb lower than when he won the National.
I dont think Seabass will get trip, plus Ruby disregarded and I dont think Katie is going to make history. Similar with Nina and Organised confusion who wont beat Seabass.
Of the ones at the top of the weights Synchronised stands out so far I cannot see Ballabriggs, Wierd Al, Alfa Beat, Planet of sound or Deep Purple beating him on current terms. Neither should Calgary Bay or Black Apalachi or junior but not discounting them yet.
phew Im now down to 27.
im already goin outta ma mind here picking the races from the rest of the weeks card, the aintree bowl in particular. firstly it was burton port, then saw barrys left him for Riverside, then noticed neither have had 10 career chase starts so both scrubbed, gonna be between medermit and Hunt ball for me, just cant decide. Medermit up in trip and my goodness Hunt Ball could be absolutely anything
Im sticking with hunt Ball until at least it loses. Even then I ve have trouble leaving it.
Now to knock some more off.
father V
As already said Giles Cross stand out down here.
Cant have any out of the handicap so thats got rid of any of those that might sneak in which takes me to Hello Bud. Whilst I fancy Black Appalachi at 13 cannot fancy a 14 year old. Gets you into trouble dont you know. Cant see Vic Venturi, Tharawaat winning unless very heavy and that suits GC as well, so no. In Compliance , Viking Blonde or Swing bill need a lot less weight to have a chance against past conquerors. Postmaster and Quiscover Fontaine looks out of their depth even with low weight and cant see Midnight Haze doing a Mr Frisk.
thats down to eighteen and I wont get rid of Killyglen, becauseicouldntsee, State of Play-the perenial placer who reminds me of The Pilgarlic or always Waining who loves Aintree.
That leaves me the middle ones.
Cant see Ruby or AP getting their choices wrong so out go Arbor Supreme, Sunnyhillboy, The Midnight Club. Love Tatanen as a horse but not over 4 miles +. Cant have shakalakboomboom who is one pound worse off with Calgary Bay. Cannot see On His Own beating either Treacle or Black Applachi so thats him out.
More work to do
Chicago Grey looks like he has lost appetite so thats him out. Treacle , his form let down in Irish National
But now I am really struggling to get it down further.
14 Left in and reasons why
Synchronised-7-1-well handicapped and if he gets round will win. Price short enough though.
Calgary Bay-33-1- heart decision and just incase Synchronised falls
Black Appalachi-33-1-Sound form and 3lb better than 2nd in 2010. but 2 years older. hmmmm
Junior-11-1-the story horse, cheltanham Ascot, National Winner?
West End Rocker -10-1-stable confidence, immpressive Becher winner,
According to Pete -28-1 - ran tremendous racers this year
Always Right - 28-1looked like he would have waltzed past Giles Cross and if palate op has worked well he will win
Rare Bob -40-1- well handicapped with West End Rocker ,
Killyglen -16-1-6lb less than last year when he looked likely winner. Will he remeber experience as good or bad ?
Becauseicouldntsee- 20-1-ran well at Cheltenham and 2nd behind ante post fav Prince de Beucherne
Le Beau Bai-33-1 -if it rains a lot between now at saturday must be backed
State of Play- 50-1 -perenial placer is it his turn to win.probably not
Always Waining-40-1 -Loves the place, probably last year his best chance if he got in race
Giles Cross -10-1 -stand out at bottom of handicap, pity no o'reagan
Comments help please to narrow it further
Best wishes. Shaun the Villa fan in Bham
Still cant see a winner outside my 14 which i have now cut down some more although not with great confidence. I just can't back 14 horses LOL.
Have cut out
West End Rocker-needed to have a race this year.
Rare Bob because if I think WER isnt going to win he wont either.
Calgary Bay, cant let my heart rule my head
State of Play-might get placed but wont win
Down to 10