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2013 National Winner 'On His Own' running total now £1000 ew (mission accomplished over Xmas)

edited April 2013 in Betting Chat
I've just watched a re-run and gotta say On His Own was tanking along when it fell at Beechers 2nd time round. It wouldn't be the 1st to fall there when going well only to prevail the following year (West Tip 1985/6). Mullins sure to keep him to hurdles til next years weights are announced to keep the 148 rating intact. I'll keep this thread going and every time I top up my ante post bet ill post it. 1st bet placed now £25ew 33/1.
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Comments

  • edited October 2012
    In Response to 2013 National Winner running total invested £100
    I've just watched a re-run and gotta say On His Own was tanking along when it fell at Beechers 2nd time round. It wouldn't be the 1st to fall there when going well only to prevail the following year (West Tip 1985/6). Mullins sure to keep him to hurdles til next years weights are announced to keep the 148 rating intact. I'll keep this thread going and every time I top up my ante post bet ill post it. 1st bet placed now £25ew 33/1.
    Posted by joesman1

    Had another £25ew @ 33/1 today. Either gonna be in a good position next April or have egg on my face.
  • edited October 2012
    In Response to Re: 2013 National Winner running total invested now £75 ew
    In Response to 2013 National Winner running total invested £ 100 Had another £25ew @ 33/1 today. Either gonna be in a good position next April or have egg on my face.
    Posted by joesman1
    Boooo. All the 33/1 now gone, had to change from Mr Power to Mr Boyle too cos they've gone straight to 20's. £25 ew 25/1 @ Boylesports. Total now £75 ew


  • edited October 2012
    My god can't believe it's been 93 days since I last updated this blog. Scary how time flies.. Anyway since I had a good touch last weekend I've topped up my 'investment' on On His Own for next years National. Still 25/1. Total invested now stands at £200 ew, some @ 33/1. My aim is to get a £1000 ew on it before it drops below 20/1. Only topping my bet up when I have a win. Daft logic I know, but then feels like its a free bet. Hope I don't have egg on my face come next April. 
  • edited October 2012
    Another 70 days have flown by since I last updated this blog. Seeing The Rocks Cheltenham treble reminded me of it. Well I'm up to £500 ew now, still getting 25's. Still only topping up when I snare a win. Branden Grace enabled me to top up last week. Hoping to get 1k ew on before it dips below 20's. Hey ho if I do my money in. 
  • edited October 2012
    Such a sicko if this wins!!
  • edited October 2012
    In Response to Re: 2013 National Winner 'On His Own' running total now £500 ew:
    Such a sicko if this wins!!
    Posted by FlashFlush
    Oh come on Charles. Let my 'dream' come true!! 
  • edited October 2012
    I hope it does for you m8! I'm sure I'll put my 50p e/w bet on it when the time comes so I can cheer it on properly then :-)
  • edited October 2012
    In Response to Re: 2013 National Winner 'On His Own' running total now £500 ew:
    I hope it does for you m8! I'm sure I'll put my 50p e/w bet on it when the time comes so I can cheer it on properly then :-)
    Posted by FlashFlush
    I know you're a lot more sensible/careful than myself. . . But throw caution to the wind and stick a £1 ew on it every week between now and April. Then u will have £25 ish ew on it and bag £600 + if it wins. U won't miss the £2 each week.
  • edited November 2012
    Another golf win enables me to top up again. Now on £700 ew, still @ 25's. Put on double what I usually top up by today because Willie Mullins has his Stable Tour highlighted in tomorrows Racing Post. I'm hoping to read he is 'laying it out' for The National. 
  • edited November 2012
    i backed it this year and was going as well as anything when it fell 

  • edited November 2012
    You are a sicko !  Hope it wins,  would be awesome.   Plus i'm going to back it near the time, unless odds decrease massively.
  • edited November 2012
    after watching the race again you might be on to something. it appears the loose horse got in his eyeline and became a distraction - makes sense. id always thought Prince de Beauchene would be mullins main one in this (as like last year before taken out of decs) and still think would also be choice of Ruby but as you say, a main trend i look out for is a horse who ran year before and fell, was brought down, as history shows they tend to run a big race again, handicapper will be more leniant than a horse who 'got round' to claim 3rd or 4th.

    my favourite race in the NH calander, i know most hardened NH followers think the opposite way but i like the fact it is a race where i can watch with the family and kids who otherwise 365 days a year are pretty disinterested the grand sport (then 4 year old nephew had Neptune Collognes last year and cashed in his 50p e/w @ 33's on a new batmobile)

    but youre a brave man than me backing the national so far away, id at least be wanting to see the weights published as theres always going to be something better handicapped surely? the nationals a lottery as it is, sometimes its a lottery just getting there so i hope the horse gets there in one piece for your sake as its the least your faith in him deserves.

    the moneys not the big thing, you can afford the 50 or whatever weekly from other winnings etc so great to top up.

    its not even if he lines up and doesnt win thats the disappointing factor, they turn up, were unlucky, didnt deserve it (delete as appropriate)

    most definately the really heartbreaking thing is when you pick up a copy of the post, or flick online to sporting life in mid march and read headline 'YOUR HORSES NAME.... OUT OF RACE'

    had my fingers royally burnt on last installment for RSA antepost, still convinced hed have won, First Leutenants second only cements that theory. my biggest antepost ever (and will not happen again on that scale) was fellow gigginstown runner Sea of Thunder, he turned up in much the same vein as weapons amnesty, never really went well in ireland but thrived over the water on better ground, well he ran no bloo dy race at all and just had to hold my hands up. was much more sick on last installments withdrawel as i didnt get a run/sweat

    so fingers crossed for your bet, youve even convinced me for a tenner e/w at this early stage, ill wait til the weights are published before picking an alternative/going in again, and even then more than likely be the first week in april
  • edited November 2012
    Howdy Mr Bell. Firstly got my wish today, Mullins says ". . . . We're keen to head back to Aintree again so you probably won't be seeing much of him until the second half of the season."

    Secondly, I agree re Prince De Beauchene complicates matters, as Mullins has also declared its his intention to target him at the race too, and I'd much rather have Walsh on board. At least Wylie doesn't mind running two in the same race. 

    Thirdly, slightly disagree about the weight issue. It ran off 148 this year so can be almost guaranteed to run off the same mark next year as it won't see a fence til the weights are published. Obviously it's exact weight will be determined by the rating of the top weight.

    Fourthly, yeah it's the risk you take backing them early. But nowadays less horses miss the big events due to the better facilities these top trainers have. 

    Anyway, I'm gonna leave this thread alone now until Tom Segal tips it up in his Pricewise Section in the Post in February when the weights are published (lol). Tbh, value may have gone by then so he wouldn't tip it, even if he fancies it. 
  • edited November 2012
    aye i was hoping youd post what mullins said today as on your above post after id written mine i saw you saying about the stable tour and ive not been able to get a hold of the post today, all systems go then it appears! good luck
  • edited January 2013
    Getting excited now!!! Racing Post gonna carry a story in the morning saying the money is coming for On His Own, and is now vying for favouritism. My target has been reached, all at 20's and above. At least this time I'm on on ew, so not another Teaforthree situation, unless of course it finishes 5th. Oh and Teaforthree winning it would be another bad beat. 
  • edited January 2013
    Wooooow

    Very best of luck mate!
  • edited January 2013
    I hope you are right mate but for once in my life LOL I agree with Bell.

    I am sure Mullins first choice will be Prince De Beucherne and Ruby will ride that.

    Having said that there is usually a story behind the national winner and perhaps it will be

    " Jockey wins first grand National as Ruby left On His Own" 

    Good luck and you have certainly put your money where your mouth is.

    Father V
  • edited January 2013
    In Response to Re: 2013 National Winner 'On His Own' running total now £1000 ew (mission accomplished over Xmas):
    I hope you are right mate but for once in my life LOL I agree with Bell. I am sure Mullins first choice will be Prince De Beucherne and Ruby will ride that. Having said that there is usually a story behind the national winner and perhaps it will be " Jockey wins first grand National as Ruby left On His Own"  Good luck and you have certainly put your money where your mouth is. Father V
    Posted by vaigret
    You should be working for The Sun, making up headlines like that Father V. You might be right, will depend which horse gives him the best feel in their prep run. I guess I'd end up with Paul Townsend, though part of me would like Paul Carberry, so he could pay me back for his inspirational ride in last Sat's National. 

    And thanks Splashes, would give me more ammo' to throw away on golf bets lol. 
  • edited February 2013
    As the weights for The National are published on Tuesday (and I'm bored watching Snedeker on the iPad and Hawaii 'book him Danno' Five O on the TV), I thought I'd dig the National Blog out.

    Really chuffed to see Nicholls commit Tidal Bay to the race today. Though I'm sure his stable jockey and its owner would have told him he HAS run it lol. With him in the race, it guarantees mine (same ownership) runs off (I'm guessing) 10st 5 to 7 ish. And anything dangerous lurking low down in the weights will have to run above its allocated weight. 

    I'm sure once the weights are announced, all the big guns who have kept their powder dry will soon hit the track. Haycocks National Trial, The Eider Chase, and from my point of view in all probability, The Bobby Jo Chase week after next, will offer plenty of clues. 

    Lastly cannot believe how quick time flies. 20th April last year when I 1st started this only seems like yesterday. Scary!!!
  • edited February 2013
    all the best mate and just hope it gets there safely for you
  • edited February 2013
    In Response to Re: 2013 National Winner 'On His Own' running total now £1000 ew (mission accomplished over Xmas):
    As the weights for The National are published on Tuesday (and I'm bored watching Snedeker on the iPad and Hawaii 'book him Danno' Five O on the TV), I thought I'd dig the National Blog out. Really chuffed to see Nicholls commit Tidal Bay to the race today. Though I'm sure his stable jockey and its owner would have told him he HAS run it lol. With him in the race, it guarantees mine (same ownership) runs off (I'm guessing) 10st 5 to 7 ish. And anything dangerous lurking low down in the weights will have to run above its allocated weight.  I'm sure once the weights are announced, all the big guns who have kept their powder dry will soon hit the track. Haycocks National Trial, The Eider Chase, and from my point of view in all probability, The Bobby Jo Chase week after next, will offer plenty of clues.  Lastly cannot believe how quick time flies. 20th April last year when I 1st started this only seems like yesterday. Scary!!!
    Posted by joesman1
    Nevermind time flies being scary, this whole 'mission' is scary!!!

    I'll be following with interest, good luck!
  • edited February 2013
    In Response to Re: 2013 National Winner 'On His Own' running total now £1000 ew (mission accomplished over Xmas):
    In Response to Re: 2013 National Winner 'On His Own' running total now £1000 ew (mission accomplished over Xmas) : Nevermind time flies being scary, this whole 'mission' is scary!!! I'll be following with interest, good luck!
    Posted by TheDart
    Much more fun than scary. A sensible chap would trade when it hits 10/1 week of the race. Good job I'm reckless lol
  • edited February 2013
    as youd predicted he runs off 148 and if tidal bay stays in it looks like he'll carry 10-10
  • edited February 2013
    In Response to Re: 2013 National Winner 'On His Own' running total now £1000 ew (mission accomplished over Xmas):
    as youd predicted he runs off 148 and if tidal bay stays in it looks like he'll carry 10-10
    Posted by BELL_POKER

    Howdy Mr Bell, yeah he does, Mr Smith had to keep him on the same mark as last year. Though I predict by race time this year his rating will be mid 150's when he hopefully scoots home in his trial. 

    Massive favour done to Tidal Bay reducing his official mark from 171 to 162. Annoying really, cos that in turn means my boy carrying 4/5 Ibs more than I had anticipated. But it's the same for all the other horses (Tidal Bay apart). He obv wants as many runners as poss in the hcp proper. 

    Even Nicholls himself has acknowledged how much of a favour Tidal Bay has been done by saying he might skip The Festival altogether and focus purely on The National. That in turn makes jockey bookings even more intriguing. 
  • edited February 2013
    After reading the Racing Post today the must have bet if Graham Wylie to win National at 4-1. He hes On His Own(read above to see why he has a chance), Prince De Beuchearne Willie Mullins rates this his best chance and says both On His Own and the Prince are both better than Hedgehunter who he trained to win the race and Tidal Bay who is thrown in at the weights. 

    Get on.

    Whilst talking about National I have just purchased DVd 12 Greatest Ever Grand Nationals about £7 on amazon which shows the whole of 12 good nationals. One impressive race which I hadnt realised was so impressive was L'Escargots win in 1975. Ok this twice Gold cup winner was getting 10lb more off Red Rum than in 1974 but at level weights that day he would have beaten the maestro of Aintree.  

    Must have DVD for anybody who likes the great race.

    Father V
  • edited February 2013
    ive had that dvd for years mate the Foinavon national always brings a smile to my face theres a few chuckles to be had with that.

    the 4/1 for wylie owned winner stands out youre right. i thought even the Prince would be carrying a bit at 11-3 and i usually target lower down the handicap for a winner in this but that stat slowly going out the window as i think i heard the last 4 have all carried 11st plus oddly and the only one i pciked outta them was Ballabriggs, who carries same again. if in good nick could sneak into a place as best this time

    without sounding contradictory i agree that tidal bay is thrown in (obviously as hes racing a good few pounds lower than offical mark) yet i cant forsee me having a bet just at the moment anyway, its the nagging feeling of backing a 12 year old for the national. he is however a special 12 year old and certainly a rejuvenated one since joining ditcheat.

    at the weights you couldnt be happier with on his own and deserved antepost favourite
  • edited February 2013
    I always have too many bets in the national so I have already covered about 7 by having bets on Paul Nicholls 10-1 to train the national winner again and Graham Wylie 4-1 to own it . Lets hope my free bet today with the Magic sign pays for them.
  • edited February 2013
    See tidal bays out
    how does this effect the weights?
  • edited February 2013
    In Response to Re: 2013 National Winner 'On His Own' running total now £1000 ew (mission accomplished over Xmas):
    See tidal bays out how does this effect the weights?
    Posted by BADBOY985

    I took a deep in take of breath when I heard one of Wylie's horses was out of The National. 

    Phew!!! 

    The next in the weights Albertas Run moves up to 11st 10lb's and everyone else moves up 2lb's. If (as I suspect) Albertas Run doesn't run, the next in the weights Imperial Commander moves up to 11st 10lb's. And I strongly suspect that won't run either as the owner isn't keen on it running. I think What A Friend will end up top weight and everyone lumps an extra 5ibs. 
  • edited February 2013
    That is incredible,

    Father Vaigret strikes again

    As soon as I put my bet on one of them goes out of both bets

    You have to laugh !!!!
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