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Pot odd & EV
Even after spending hours of today researching into these more im still not confident. Can anyone help me undertsand it more or at least direct me to somwhere which will help. How often do you players use these and how improtant do you find them? thanks for any advice everyone
Comments
learn the basics and is second nature given time.
This is a very simple example and doesn't take into account implied odds, which is the idea that you don't quite have the right pot odds to call, but you think that if you do hit, you stand to win a very big pot because you think they will continue to pile chips in (and you're deep enough).
EV is short for Expected Value and is essentially about making decisions which are profitable long-term. Often there are lots of +EV moves but you ideally want the most +EV. To give a very simple (and silly) example. If you pick up AA and just open shove 100BB, this is +EV because you will either win the blinds, or very very rarely get called and mostly win. However it's clearly not the most +EV way to play AA and will mean you lost alot of value.
Not an expert by any means but its something i've thought about without researching it.
I'm sure somebody more knowledgeable will come up with the answer.
Mick
A book that helped me widen some of my lines on this and give real time hand examples was the gus Hansens Aussie Millions book. Cant think what its called exactly just now but am sure someone will be happy to put it up.
If looking to expand own game and think more in the terms you want this would be a great book for you to read.
(Edit: Every hand revealed) Aside from deepening your knowledge on the subjects you ask....well its just a bloody good book.
Buy yourself a copy of Harrington on Holdem volumes 1 and 2, it's heavy going sometimes but worth the effort IMO.
Board: Kh Qh 8s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.929% 62.93% 00.00% 623 0.00 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 37.071% 37.07% 00.00% 367 0.00 { 3h2h }
The reason I used that example is because alot of people think, 'well the odds of hitting my flush are 1 in 3, so I can call cos I'm getting the right odds', but they don't realise that it's 1 in 3 to hit it by the river and there's a very good chance you're gonna have to call another bet on the turn if you wanna see the river, so it's not right to compare your pot odds on the flop to odds of hitting a hand by the river.
In terms of odds. I think you have 2.2% chance of hitting each card you require on the turn after the flop is dealt. And 4.4% to hit on either turn or river.
chance of us hitting on flop = 9/47 = 19.1%
chance of us missing the flop but hititng river = 80.9% * (9/46) = 15.82
19.1 + 15.82 = 34.91
i still dont undertsnad ev
If when you win 1 in 5 times, you're still making a profit on that call, it's +EV, if you lose, it's -EV, although as I said in an earlier post, one +EV move is not always the most +EV.
So in my example, if you're calling on the turn to hit a flush, assuming you're only interested in the turn... Once you flop a flush draw, you're about 1in5 to hit it on the turn, so imagine you have to call 500 and the pot is 1000, so the 4 times you lose, you throw away 2000 in total, and the one time you hit, you win 1500 (the 1000 plus the 500 you put in), so calling here is -EV. However if you had to pay 200 into a pot of 1000, the 4 times you lose you throw away 800 chips, and the one time you win, you win 1200, so it's +EV.
Again you gotta bear in mind that this is a very basic example and assumes another chip doesn't go in the pot when you hit the flush but you get the idea (I hope).
It's about knowing what's the correct decision long term. Like if someone open shoves 100BB, you call with 72off and he has AA and you happen to win that time, it's still a -EV move (obviously) because you will lose that race abuot 82% of the time.