NL300 - A Set With Action In Two Spots

jakally

I think betting the turn is probably best.

We most likely still have the best hand, and it's unlikely missed draws are going to bluff at any point, therefore we may as well try and get value now. 

Anything just under half pot is ok.

NColley

make an extremely fast 1/2 pot bet ott imo

false timing tells ftw

WHOAMI196

In Response to Re: NL300 - A Set With Action In Two Spots:

I think betting the turn is probably best. We most likely still have the best hand, and it's unlikely missed draws are going to bluff at any point, therefore we may as well try and get value now.  Anything just under half pot is ok.
Posted by jakally

Can i ask why you would bet less half pot? thanks.

I think our range does not differ with regards to sizing, and this is a rare situation to ever have a balnced range, imo all we are doing is giving them a decent price if they have a combo draw (straight + flush etc), and by betting <half pot we are giving the first person />3-1 (good odds for a 25%shot), if the first player just flats then the UTG player can also call getting a great price if he has a 20% shot i.e a flush draw.
 
I think its a mistake not betting big here.

jakally

If we knew an opponent had specifically &d5d, it would be a small mistake to bet half pot.

But we don't know that, and it's just as likely we are up against AdQd and 44.

If we bet 150, we can still get calls from hands which are making a mistake by calling this number, and we leave enough room for someone to jam, thinking they have fold equity.

If we want to bet these spots as a bluff, then 150 turn, nearly pot river, will be much more effective than 250, half pot. 

The weakness in this, is given the strength we have shown, it's not that likely we will have a bluff at this point obv.

We are trying to get good players to make mistakes versus us, and making bet sizing generic, gives them a little bit more opportunity to do this.

AMYBR

tbh I just dont overthink this spot too much given reads posted in OP & lvling war between the three as described.

Am firing halfish pot partly to protect my hand and for value vs a wider range than has been discussed given reads.  Board is just to wet to even think of crai incase he takes free card and were just not folding, so it can only be halfpot+ to snap

Without reads and dynamic described I'd be giving it a lot more thought.

But with the intrest on flop (+ lvling war) I would have  tried to get it in vs pr + FD etc.

WHOAMI196

In Response to Re: NL300 - A Set With Action In Two Spots:

If we knew an opponent had specifically &d5d, it would be a small mistake to bet half pot. But we don't know that, and it's just as likely we are up against AdQd and 44. If we bet 150, we can still get calls from hands which are making a mistake by calling this number, and we leave enough room for someone to jam, thinking they have fold equity. If we want to bet these spots as a bluff, then 150 turn, nearly pot river, will be much more effective than 250, half pot.  The weakness in this, is given the strength we have shown, it's not that likely we will have a bluff at this point obv. We are trying to get good players to make mistakes versus us, and making bet sizing generic, gives them a little bit more opportunity to do this.
Posted by jakally

Thanks for your reply, i think the bold bit is really important because we bet here with our value range almost always, i still prefer a bigger bet given all the information although i highly value your point you made at the end of your post.

It will be interesting to see what tommy did here, i suspect he checks(planning the old c/r) and player 2 checks back?

Poker clinic post of the month (if not longer) wp tommy.

Glenelg

In Response to Re: NL300 - A Set With Action In Two Spots:

In Response to Re: NL300 - A Set With Action In Two Spots : Thanks for your reply, i think the bold bit is really important because we bet here with our value range almost always, i still prefer a bigger bet given all the information although i highly value your point you made at the end of your post. It will be interesting to see what tommy did here, i suspect he checks(planning the old c/r) and player 2 checks back? Poker clinic post of the month (if not longer) wp tommy.
Posted by WHOAMI196

+1 Excellent read altho  my brain is starting to hurt!.
@ Tommy - to continue the Top Gun analogy there's a bit in it that runs something like "Boss this bogey is all over me! Do I have permission to fire?"  Tommy - you have permission to fire! I'd be dissappointed if you don't, or at least have a plan to c/r? ;-)

Batkin88

Just seen this post it's a very good one and gives alot of us lower stakes players an insight into thought processes and the plan throughout the hand so thanks.
Playing so deep I would call the flop and i would personally see the 5 as a blank and try check raise all in the turn.
Like you said if KK is out then so be it.
I reckon that player 1 has 44 and player 2 to be very weak like one pair or flush draw.

rancid

In Response to Re: NL300 - A Set With Action In Two Spots:

In Response to Re: NL300 - A Set With Action In Two Spots : Thanks for your reply, i think the bold bit is really important because we bet here with our value range almost always, i still prefer a bigger bet given all the information although i highly value your point you made at the end of your post. It will be interesting to see what tommy did here, i suspect he checks(planning the old c/r) and player 2 checks back? Poker clinic post of the month (if not longer) wp tommy.
Posted by WHOAMI196

I went for a bit bigger than half pot (210) but kinda for the same reason but also - what hands do we bet with here - not many

given action we never bet with air, maybe draws at worse -

so Kx/sets/made straight is all we bet here

grantorino

Haven't read all replies, but raise flop and get it in

As played b/c turn