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The Derby
Can anyone put me off Main Sequence at 10/1? That price looks huge to me.
Comments
Father v
I like Camelot!
The likely challenger to me looks like Bonfire!
Is there a fly in the ointment! Could be ,as there are no certainties in horse racing!
If I take these factors into consideration, I want to cover all possible avenues , that is going to give me a profit. Doe's not matter if it is big or small, as long as I get enjoyment out of watching the race!
So here is my plan!
(1) Camelot win £46 @4/6
(2) Camelot £10 reverse forecast!
Bonfire
(3)Cavaleiro £2 e/w @75/1 (Hayley Turner is on a high at the moment)
CAMELOT WILL NOT WIN THE DERBY
if only I knew how to lay bets on Betfair I could make a fortune
LOL
or lose one !!!!
camelot will win matter of how far.
only has 8 rivals now as the rest all scared off, bonfire is good horse but doubtful will handle the dip at epsom, as seeing last win looked a very tricky ride to me.
also at 2yr's was beat by french fifteen by 2l, where as camelot beat fench fifteen last time out.
main sequence i very doubt will win as trainer not known for big race wins anywhere, apart from this horses group 3 win last time out. does not stand up againts the best of group races that camelot has won.
o'brien's other runner in race is astrolgy, won by 11l but only beat 90 rated horse to win by that distance, so would make him around 113 rated now. and at 2yr's couldn't win a group 2 or group 3.
not sure others in race still look up to it either.
all in all VERY poor derby this year,
cant see CAMELOT getting beat so advice s/f the 2 o'brien horse's but if can get odds against camelot LUMP ON.
sorry for long post and gl all having a bet
best advice just watch race or have small bet w/o camelot.
it wont win
Back Camelot to win 1.68
Lay Camelot to lose 1.69
but at 4/7 no point for us small punters even looking at it.
bonfire no real point in doing e/w pointless,
i still think astrology best e/w in race with s/fcast with fav to win.
reasons for this simple really, o'briens 2nd string so will be pacemaker, just look at homecoming queen recently, also tresure beach in derby last year, almost won when taking front running role last year beat on line by pois moi.
still think just watching breif best bet but gl all in having a go this year.
Also watch out for Mickdaam
not really a betting heat for me i will be watch only.
in stark contrast to the oaks which is wide open. shirocco star for me in that one e/w 16/1
i do not think maybe will stay, but bred too.
vow looks tricky horse to ride (just like bonfire in derby)
on the book the fugue has the form but too short at 10/3 in such a trick race,
i think backing a couple of bigger priced horse E/W might be way to go.
you both go for shirocco star at 14/1 i think a little underpriced for form shown so far, beaten by a queens 33/1 shot and not really top class at that, gl but 14/1 to skinny for me.
again like i said with the derby i might do a couple of o'briens (so called 2nd strings)
betterbetterbetter 33/1 is intressting, as would be 10/1 if won at chester last time out where jockey kicked for home to early.
also i will have little e/w on WAS at 50/1, cost £1,2 million gns as a yearling, made great debut and i will ignore last run as needs at least this far with better groung (getting today).
gl all if having a bet.
1:35 Open Water 4/1 NB £30 win
2:05 Euxton Hall 9/4 NAP £50 win
2:40 Masked Marvel 10/1 £10 EW
3:15 Judge N Jury 10/1 £10 EW
4:00 Main Sequence 10/1 £20 EW
4:50 Layline 20/1 £10 EW
5:25 Piscean 10/1 £10 EW
Looks a more difficult day today, hence so many ew bets
right to put me back on track and as stated yesterday theres nothing particulary eyecatching about his runs this season thus far and trainer himself hasnt got yard firing but Dandy Nicholls has unmatched record in the epsom dash (4 winners from last 10 renewals) and usually goes mob handed so the fact that hes only selcected the one in this years race ive taken the hint if you can call it that! FITZ FLYER 25/1 10 e/w (as big as 33's now as we speak oh erm)
this is just a whim - if he runs to this seasons form so far hell finish 11th or 12th so hoping theyve put something in the water!!! being dropped 3lbs after eased up by fallon last time out a plus and hopefully now the jock will have had a feel for the horse he can go onto put best (or at least better) foot forward.
like a glorified pin sticker but thats my reasoning!
bypassing the derby but hope for a good speactacle.
saving a last epsom bet for swilly ferry 5.25 not giving up on Dandy just yet! plus my imaginary wife Hayley Turner is on so again sound reasoning for a bet (cough)
shame i done the f/cast as well, pipped on line for 2nd.
but what a horse (the new frankel is born), we will see in time i guess.
anyway wd who backed the fav
if only I knew how to lay bets on Betfair I could make a fortune
LOL
or lose one !!!! great quote lol eat your words father v couldnt be much wrong