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What to do? nl100 - 270bb deep
bet flop call river.
Comments
UTG raises to $3, MP calls $3, Hero raises to $14, 3 folds, UTG calls $11, MP folds
Flop: ($32.50) Tc 8c 5h (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($32.50) Kd (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $22, UTG calls $22
River: ($76.50) As (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $54, UTG raises to $157, Hero ????
Not much info on opponent but seems tight and decent. I considered call, fold and raise!!!, then ruled out raise, he prob wont call with worse sets or two pair and never checks two street with a set anyway.
So call or fold?, can never see him bluffing here.
Also might make him put more money in with nothing. Dont know if its good or bad.
Hard to put him on aces from pre flop betting.
I'm calling here hoping he has lower set.
I agree he isn't likely bluffing, but think it would be a tad weak to fold a set with only two hands beating us. So call and don't raise and hope its not just a crying call vs a tricky AA or QJ suited or something.
Also, as a side note. I'm not checking the flop for pot control really. Bet the flop and check the turn maybe if he calls on a board like that, ut I'd rather get my value on flop and information about just how strong UTG is at the same time. After all he would expect a cbet, so I don't mind going with it. After all really we should be prepared to get it all in preflop with KK, so not sure I love the idea of pot control on a flop unless its wildly wet across his likely range.
But my thinking was, if he check raises me and then starts leading other streets Im going to be guessing in a very big pot. He could have air, big draws, two pair or sets and Im clueless.
270 bb deep, my 3bet against his utg raise shows strength, but if he 4bets me he looks really strong.
A five bet by me looks massive, he would want to have some big reads on me to 6bet allin with ak or qq or bluffs.
Surprised you say you didn't have much info on him, as by your stack I assume you been on the table a while, as its 100NL right? So unless its deep stack he has got up over 1.5 buyins, so unless he just got big pot early I'd assume he had been sat with you a little while?
I think pocket pairs are the most likely.
Yeah, youre right, its only a 100bb table and he had been there a while!, but hadnt played much with him and had 10 other tables open.
Wasnt paying enough attention.
So again....
I'd be like puh leeze c/r me here
What draws and 2pr hands are there on the flop to pot control vs bud? Only hand we have to worry about are sets and A's. If its A's its just Myeh w/e nh. Air has 2 live outs for whopping 13% off flop.
Just simplify the hand bud. No need to make it complicated. On river its just far too nitty to check back 2nd set. So we pretty much have to bet. So ok we get c/r'd, but without a ridic soulread we are never folding so its an obv call, never a raise (99% of time). Win or lose, mostly optimum.
Only thing wrong is checking flop. Just lose so much value vs OP's 10x hands and floats.
FWIW dont agree that hand is always AA JQ, think as board runs out there will be a few confused 2pr hands, weaker sets and bluffs. The river c/r is whats kinda polarising to obv top of his range and bluffs. Forget hero folding, just pay it off and know that some of the time we are beat, most of the time we are winning vs terribad ------+ Mercier range of players
But, this deep I will mix it up a bit more. Wouldnt say either is wrong myself as long as your mixing it up.
Anyway, if we do cbet flop and he check raises I wouldnt be delighted myself....whats next?.
Id have to continue carefully. Obviously we are still beating a lot of his hands, but our hand wont improve most of the time and we could be behind as it is.
If you hadnt lost this hand I doubt you'd be so glass is half empty
UL
If all the money does go allin by the river and I still have just the overpair, Im rarely ahead.
100bb I will be delighted to get all the money in....but stack sizes changes situation a lot from my perspective.
Results in this hand are irrelevant to me.
We let a card come off for free HU with overpair on dry flop.
We turn the nuts, but our bet is now less than half what it ought to be after passive flop line.
River is ugly.
Just say he had A's. How much value would we lose?
Why are we playing this hand so scared?
There are many turns that checking flop will save us money on.
Giving him one hand like aa is a bit silly too I think. But if he had AA we made a good play on the flop because we checked behind when we were behind
checking flop just looks like you have a hand, I mean why would you 3 bet bluff and then check flop
call river, wouldn't be surprised to see lower set's - even though oppo c/c on turn is leaning towards draws
btw oppo never has AA here, surely pre flop it's a 4bet unless dynamic between you states otherwise - gonna see a 4 bet pre w/AA this deep like 99% of the time
Wasnt giving one hand, however only beaten by two on river.
I think the result is colouring your perspective. May as well have flatted pre and checked behind every street with this mentality.
Am out.
I didnt really think too much about check on the flop, I think cbet and check both have their merits. Interesting that many would cbet 100 percent of the time here.
But was really wondering if river could be a fold, even though it looks like an obvious call.
I couldnt put him on a lower set too often, unlikely when he checked flop and turn. A lot of players wouldnt even raise with the lower set anyway, may feel only better will continue.
I couldnt see him raising with two pair because he would not see me continueing with any worse.
Would be a really odd bluff.
In the end I called reluctantly, feeling sure he had jq.
Kind of ruled out AA due to preflop play and check on flop and turn. But, he had AA.
really, intresting - after we 3 bet then what hands would we check flop with - what are the reasons for checking flop in a 3 bet pot
also why is flatting with AA this deep good play, surely the deeper we are the more we want to put in pre
pot controlling with these hands pre/flop just seems really strange
maybe it's just me but it seems a bit odd to 3 bet pre and then check flop, may aswell wave a flag above your head and shout "I have a hand"
suppose they both playing very deceptive, only plus point I can see from this example
plus I think this deep, implied hands alwasy come along to 3/4 bet
Cant think of 1 real reason to check that flop IP.
Hero's logic is based on fact he didnt want to build a big pot, reinforced by fact oppo had A's. Playing hand putting oppo on maybe 2 nut hands on flop, then we have the stone cold nuts on turn which is irrelevant apparently, then two better nut hands on river.......
Forgetting that though: Dynamic lvling war pre 6betaipf snap call sigh.......fist pump ........ .. .... ............................. ...sighhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
But the check on flop is pot control....we dont want to play for 270bb stacks with just overpair and the opponent is not going to give us three streets with much that we beat. Not only that but he could take make us fold on turn or river when we are still beating him. Not sure whats strange.
Think of how much value we lose versus all other hands.
Because oppo has AA, it would seem your justifying what a good play it was to be honest
Just think this is very transparent play to 3 bet pre and check flop - I still think you can just bet/bet/bet and still maximise from worse
The whole hand is just a cooler, would have more intresting if no K on turn or A on river
Would seem to me that playing this way is playing scared of being outplayed or not having the best hand
So what if we bet flop, and he check raises. Yes were calling. But what if he bets turn.....then river....
All of a sudden we are playing a massive pot and we are guessing where were at. He could have a set, he could have draws, he could have air and we dont know what turn or river cards are good for us...our hand rarely improves on turn or river.
The check is to stop us getting into these tricky spots, possibly folding the best hand or having to pay off a massive pot with just kk.
We also get good value from hands we beat, with river and turn bets.
wp. I would lean towards folding because of the raise size. Lower sets usually would lead or raise turn and his raise on the river doesnt really suggest AK to me.