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Hmmm spot vs nit to get into profit: thoughts?
nitty SB c/r on flop - will he fold to a 4bet - odds against I reckon
and you have an idiot gs & a medium fd - and position
would not call and see the turn be a better way to use your strength - ie position - given that you are most likely behind at the moment?
Comments
Been running pretty bad for awhile. No drama's, is what it is.
Live Nl100. Effective stack is 140bigs or so.
Game is winding down. Am basically even on the night, feel have edge on oppos, just no hands of merit or real spots. Table is pretty unbluffable as call downs very light.
4 handed. Am in BB with 9d10d. utg limps as does button, as does SB. Everyone is relatively deep, but stack of oppo is 140bigs ish. Just looking to create a spot so make it £4 just hoping for a favourable flop for most part, uber unlikely to be limp 3bet @ this table in this spot.
All seats call. £16 in pot KdQs4d. SB checks I open for £7, just to get something started, yet be able to call a likely raise. All seats fold other than nitty SB who c/r's to £23. My image is very solid also.
Am obv happy with my equity but oppo will very rarely c/r a hand he will fold here. He will be strong always, but oppo prefers to play smaller pots so is very unlikely to have a draw.
Based on equity and action killing turn cards, plus my happiness to GII here at highest point of equity to create a win on the evening, reloading when it goes south, I commit to £62, fully expecting a ship behind.
How do we feel? Just full on spew mode or standard GII equity spot. As said, oppo is a nit. Much more likely to have a set, 2pr than bigger draw as played.
Agree with your line some of the time. In this spot Oppo will just shutdown on all scary turn cards and open big on the safe ones however.
Am comfortable GII (getting it in) here or picking it up as is. But there will be no value to be had vs nitty oppo on transparent turns and kind of leave ourself in ugly territory with bricks. Bit of a hmmm spot as I said. Not sure either way. Being well rolled made it feel like a snap but..hmmmmm
If you fancy a spin
So even if he shuts down 100% and we don't get another penny when we hit, you're still making a break even call otf.
you say oppo doesn't wanna play big pots so oppo must have something they want to get it all in with - right
how happy are you with your hand, reverse implied odds but how likely is it oppo has a bigger draw
is oppo more likely to c/c w/draw
if you put oppo on set/2 prs then how is you FD+GD now ? Don't think it's that close, your probably 40% versus 2 prs - not so good shape versus sets - do you have any fold equity - does oppo ever c/r bluffs multi way ?
Probably just call the c/r with position - if you have any FE then do you what you did
DOh: Not really looking for a break even spot tbh. Feeling like all my outs are live in this spot as oppo has tendancy to keep pots smaller on draws. When C/ring here his range is more often going to be sets 2prs and maybe Aq/K. Dont think i've ever seen him inflate a pot without a made hand. Dont really like just calling in this spot tbh. Turn bricks and we are left likely folding or equity shipping. Both of which I hate. Felt more comfortable getting GII vs nit holding a hand he cant fold with high equity for a decent profit on the night. If board runs out a brick am still going to feel like I gave self best chance to win fo a pot worth taking, rather than being in uglysville on turn.
Think we can assume next to 0 FE. Am not going to complain if he nit folds AK tho
Just speaking for myself, stacks arent set up right to 3bet shove. But as I typed this <------ (:p) I think you actually are likely right. Mainly just to avoid the situation where oppo flats looking for a brick turn to ship.
Had I believed this particular oppo would have paid me off if I had flatted, I think I would have flatted the cr. The 3bet was on the basis that he would shutdown alot of the time. He is never bluffing and unlikely to have a draw. It all went in on flop and he called Ad10d or 9d10d so felt like it was right decision however it went. He held Q4o
tbh didnt obsess about the math too much in the hand, beyond the obv. Think we can comfortably discount a bigger draw given particular oppo & line. So just happy spinning with as much money in on flop as we can get in there stacks being what they were. Still not happy 3 bet shoving but agree may have been best taking everything into account.
46:16 = 2.875:1 not 3.9:1
Lambert:
12 outs never makes us a favourite. If we're up against just top pair here, we have around 40-45% chance to win.
AMYBR:
You're getting it in on this flop knowing you're behind, knowing that the only thing making it profitable long-term is the money already in the middle, if you can never get a fold from your opponent. I think calling to see a turn is more profitable in the long-term because I agree with Dohhhhhhh that nobody ever plays perfect poker and your opponent is unlikely to immediately lock-up if you make your hand. Your direct odds of nearly 3:1 are good enough to make a call profitable if you only have some small implied odds.
I'm not posting much at the moment because of trouble with my eyes. So don't be asking me follow-up questions or owt. lol
If oppo does have TPTK then your basically flipping + a % of FE always makes us feel good
think you can call and still get value when you hit
imo think it's a bit spewy to shove with FE - semi bluffing with no FE is not good
don't think we can say hypothetically we are calling our stack off with 40% because we ain't )
call or shove though FWIW
As said, the sticking point in the hand is the fact that oppo will be very unlikely to put anything into the pot if we make our hand on turn. But will fire big on all bricks. Vs a not so good/nitty player I would definately have flatted. But oppo is pretty risk averse and always in sigh fold mode (being less likely to make a casual mistake), plus my range is pretty polarised
Well rolled = spin
Also not 12 outs
fwiw i'm never raising to get stacks in versus a nit here, ambyr if you think he can raise sometimes with AQ, why can't he have flush draws in his range also that crush us?
I find it interesting that despite the points discussed within the thread this is the most constructive thing that you can think to say.
I think anyone can come up with a host of good reasons to opt to raise out of the BB here, or equally to check. I didnt really think it was neccessary to lay it all out.
tbh I prob shouldnt have included AQ in his range in the thread. It would be a very outside chance and was kind of just opening the the potential range of different oppos. It just is far more likely he would have 2pr TPTK or 4's. I'd typed earlier in the thread that know this individuals tendancies quite well, in that he likes to keep pots small unto he has a lock then value pound, but equally be in perpetual sigh fold mode on ugly run outs. cr'ing a draw, even a combi draw would be unlikely from this paricular individual.
Where am I going wrong?
call flop raise. getting it in is bad as you say he is never folding on the flop, someone did maths earlier showing its -ev.
Just interested in other peoples thoughs on hand.....
As you say, (which I agree and stated in OP) we have next to 0 FE here. We have strong equity, and do believe all our outs are clean other than the shaving off of diamonds pairing the board, still leaving us with 11 clean outs.
If we believe oppo shutsdown on all scary turns, but fires 3/4pot+ 1st to speak on all blank turns, how do we then feel about 3betting to get it in feeling strongly oppo will always 4bet shove (this was line I took, hindsight being 3bet shoving is likely a better line). If we mentally commit to flipping just over a BI can it be argued that committing at highest point of equity could be fine. In honesty this was the reasoning within the hand, as vs this particular opponent it would be difficult to extract value once my hand is made, and extremely difficult to play for his stack.
If this hand plays another way with the equity you have plus fold equity then it maybe +ev or just neautral EV.
oppo has only ever got 2prs/sets with your reads so best set up v 2prs is 40% - sets is 34%
oppo has to fold 25% of the time to make this +ev I think, someone can correct me on the exact percentage required
Semi bluffing is only good when you have FE
I don't know why you think oppo shutsdown on scary turns, you can't know that that sure. It's all about playing post flop poker and not just chucking it in as a sight dog all the time because your going to spew money.
End of the day if we get priced out on the turn then so be it
Fwiw I make it 49% vs 2pr hands (which is obv the most likely range of hand). We go from having 49% equity on flop and holding betting lead when we 3bet (yes betting lead is immaterial if we percxeive 0fe - but obv always leaving in a thin margin of spew). If we flat oppos c/r we head to turn with 25% likely facing an uncomfortable bet size on all bricks and finding it difficult to extract value when we make our hand, especially as hand is played.
I'm just uncomfortable with leaving ourselves so vulnerable to being taken off hand at turn when we take the passive line. Can make up the difference in % needed in eventual pot size if we are comfortable flipping the BI. Its not online, we arent multi tabling and crunching hands across 6 tables.