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Maybe sweeping but if it's -ev then it's just loosing money however small it all adds up )
& it's deffo 40% versus KQ
I just disagree that if we hit our hand oppo will shutdown.
I guess if it's your read that oppo shutsdown all value hands when scare cards comes and never bets then ok
but if oppo c/r flop then pretty dam certain oppo going to continue on all turn cards
Will oppo just c/f sets/2prs on scary turns, I don't think do - oppo will at least c/c
lets face it, if oppo c/f this spot on turn then wow you can print money IP versus this oppo right )
Do you really think oppo is only going to put you on the draw
Given action on flop I think my range is fairly transparent. My reads arent fixed in stone, and I far from think oppos will play optimumly overall. This hand was posted as reads were strong and knowledge of player was thorough. It was just a strange spot after being c/r'd by a clear narrow range of hands, but having strong indications that if c/r was flatted it would be very hard to extract any meaningful value on later streets. This was the basis for the 3bet. To deny oppo to get away on later streets, being comfortable with effectively flipping a BI. Not leaving self in a position where life becomes very difficult on turn with bricks. Am happy to give up the marginal% difference here to ensure stacks go in. This spot vs this specific player.
Just gambling against the tide
If we could factor in some FE it would obv be better but as we cant its pretty moot. But yeah allowing oppo to play perfect against us can never be good lol
Not trying to convince anyone of anything mate. Just debating the margins of getting it in on flop at highest point of equity vs nit who is very unlikely to fold, but shutsdown a high % of time on fillers Its still very marginal imo vs narrow player type. Not convinced what was in fact best, but comfortable with getting it in outcome regardless. If hand doesnt improve I still wouldn't hate the line. Outcome never mattered
treating his raise like a jam pot becomes 159 and we have to call off 129bb
so we are getting pot odds of 1.23:1
doing some maths that i ahvent done in a long time i work out we need 44.8% equity to get it in and be breakeven.
we have 38% equity vs KQ, so 3bet/calling flop is -ev if he never folds. therefore folding to his c/r is better than 3bet/calling it off.
so fold />raise
what about calling?
16 in pot we bet 7 get raised to 23 so we have to call 16 into a pot of 16+23+7=46.
46/16 is almost 3:1 so we need ~25% equity to call
we have ~25% equity to improve our hand over 1 street so in a vacuum calling is roughly breakeven.
since people dont play perfectly, even nits we will get action when we improve over atleast 1 street when we get to put money in as a big favorite which overall makes the flop call +ev imo. (also we may be able to get to see free rivers on say Ax turn cards)
call />fold>raise imo.
Your math and % are always going to be better than mine. But have to ask: 38% equity vs KQ? Do we not have 11 clean outs?
Board: Kd 4d Qs
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.620% 38.62% 00.00% 3441 0.00 { Td9d }
Hand 1: 61.380% 61.38% 00.00% 5469 0.00 { KQs, KQo }
download 'pokerstove' its free pretty simple to use
If we are talking about a live hand in isolation (rather than crunching through x no. of MT online) should we shave our equity based upon runner runners and potential redraws? Have to be honest this is something that I simply dont do live. I simply just re do the simplest form of math on each street or run it when committing.
Online yes. Does the huge reduction in hand frequency (live 1 table vs online 4table+) address the balance or have I more reading to do?
versus AK your 50%
versus 2 pr you 40%
versus set your 35%
If you assign oppo a range of AK/KQ/44 then your equity maybe 43%
Number may not be exact because I am just guessing but just trying to explain the method
Because I have these rough numbers in my head to allow to make decisions live & online
Just a numbers game, the hand is the same on one table or if your playing across 20 tables online
If it's -EV then that's what it is
Your initial reasons for flipping were because you have 13 outs, but you have to factor in oppos range or indeed in this case the very narrow range of 2 prs/sets - because of this your equity goes down because oppo has outs that kill yours plus redraws
If you widen range to include draws/one pr hands then it will change you equity again
You can't just say I have x amount of outs and get it in, becuase you have to factor in oppo hand range
The wider oppo hand range the easier it is to stick it all in with 13 outs for example because you will also have FE if oppo range is wide and obviously you have very good chance of winning -
semi bluffing without fe is not good
not thinking about oppo range of hands and how much equity oppo has also is not good
The more equity oppo has the less you will have unless you have take some equity back in the form of FE
2) Flop cbet isn't that bad, but this is the trouble we have with our PFR, and we're getting punished for it. With about 35PSB (SUPER-UBER DEEP), we coulda just check-called twice, not expecting to get a fold 4way on KQ5s. Now we're 'expected' to cbet (which is only fine if we think we have FE) and call a raise from someone who prolly has the nuts. Now, the implied odds of binking the Xd or Jx are greatly reduced because of the bloated pot, and we're put in a 'lolwtf' spot, which has only come about because of our PFR. Even if we take the same line w/o the raise pre, we can just bet-snap any raise and look for binkage.
3) As played, and with our reads on villian i think it's a clear fold, unless you think he's willing to stack off on any diamond-ball. In which case, call + get there, check folding anything that doesn't give you the perverbial nutties.
EZ game.
GL out there boys,
Smitalos.
Apologies on long reply, been away for day. And Ty
Obv stacks shorter happy to check option. If I feel like will get 3bet obv check option. If I believe oppo will not be so tight for his stack or likely make a stack size mistake on a later street I flat c/r or just c/c flop.
Maybe I ought to have gone to greater lengths to have explained that this was a mostly situational spot rather than just a number crunch
if you happy to gambol as a dog with a buy in then ok, we have all done it )
There are a lot of good posts on this thread, a lot to take away and think about