Primo deep decision pre flop

phil12uk

OK this hand isn't for me and was analysed on TV last night. I have posted it on request from Joesman after his play came under scrutiny. Is flatting pre a positive option for him at this stage? Should the flop come into account when thinking back over this hand?

joesman1	Small blind		600.00	600.00	26886.38
Claytov	Big blind		1200.00	1800.00	10950.00
	Your hole cards	Q 10
horses	Fold
phil12uk	Raise		2400.00	4200.00	40180.00
supersmith	Fold
joesman1	Call		1800.00	6000.00	25086.38
Claytov	Fold
Flop
		6 10 2
joesman1	Check
phil12uk	Bet		4500.00	10500.00	35680.00
joesman1	All-in		25086.38	35586.38	0.00
phil12uk	Call		20586.38	56172.76	15093.62
joesman1	Show	K 10
phil12uk	Show	Q 10
Turn
		9
River
		Q
phil12uk	Win	Two Pairs, Queens and 10s	56172.76

beaneh

does he only ever get dealt KTo? is it only ever Txx flops?

peeling is fine from him what else do you expect him to do? he's playing a range vs your range. he should be calling a bunch of other hands, and possibly 3betting some depending on history etc.

unknown_username

HiP

J has 21 BB's which is looked upon as an awkward stack size. If he had 30 BB he could rer which would put mp to an awkward decision. Here especially as oop then i think its either shove or fold with this stack size and if bb is not short stacked as that may price MP in too. . MP min raises but has double J's stack.
KTo is only a top 30% shoving hand so i think he should fold here.
If he had your QTS then as this is a top 10% shoving hand and may give you a better chance of hitting , i'd shove with that hand.
I think calling is not the way to go oop and with this stack size.

bearlyther

I dont think peeling is a profitable play to peel here out of his stack size so for me depending on the player if they hadnt been opening many hands i would fold and if the player had been opening a lot of hands then its an easy jam with 22 bigs.

I dont think 3betting is an option out of that stack size it has to be an allin or a fold.

GREGHOGG

I agree with Bearly. I like to go all in, or fold pre

As played its a cooler

beaneh

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

I dont think peeling is a profitable play to peel here out of his stack size so for me depending on the player if they hadnt been opening many hands i would fold and if the player had been opening a lot of hands then its an easy jam with 22 bigs. I dont think 3betting is an option out of that stack size it has to be an allin or a fold.
Posted by bearlyther

I disagree alot.

rancid

just fold, can't see how oppo gonna make this work on missed flops unless back up plan is c/r bluffs

rosjim1

Defo peel

If you miss you have a playable stack shoving not the best option imo when you get called your crushed most of the time

beaneh

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

just fold, can't see how oppo gonna make this work on missed flops unless back up plan is c/r bluffs
Posted by rancid

does the oppo just have KTo when he calls lol

rancid

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop : does the oppo just have KTo when he calls lol
Posted by beaneh

don't get ya, just saying when he peels he only got two options on flop - hit or miss

needs to have a plan for both situations, unless we happy to play hit or miss poker and fold every flop we miss

I am talking from josemans perspective not phils

what are you saying! peel & fold missed flops

Slykllist

I don't love a peel here because Claytov is still to act from the BB with less than 10BB's and he's getting great value to get them in with a massive range if we flat.

But..... I don't love jamming 22 BB's in with a marginal hand in this spot either.

On balance, only peel if you're prepared to call a shove from Claytov, otherwise fold and find a better spot.

joesman1

Ok here is my two pennith. . Those in TeamKnightPoker F/Book, soz for the repeat post. . . Firstly, and very importantly, I have no problem with Phil for the way he played it. I had a bit of a strop on last night after watching the hand been analysed on TV, and been told I played it very badly.

Here is the background. . . 

From the moment I was moved to the table I had noticed Phil was his usual aggressive self. He was constantly raising, and inparticular, my bb, and I had decided to let it go and bide my time. By the time this hand was dealt I had approx 20bb, and when he min raised I figured k 10 was good enough to see a flop. I had already decided if I hit, with no Ace on the flop, I was going to check raise him all in. Sure enough it came a 10 high flop, so I checked, Phil did exactly what I expected him to do and bet out, and I carried out my thought process and shoved on him. I got a call and he was totally dominated, so to my mind, my plan worked out perfectly, I was a 90% plus fav. Ok, hey ho, the poker gods decided it wasn't to be, and the Queen arrived on the river. That's poker, good luck to Phil I thought. Now my point is if I had been one of the 'names', ie Julian, Tommyd, or even Phil himself to name just a few, I reckon my play would have been hailed as very good for managing to get all my chips in, and get a call, when a 90% plus fav. Then just be told I was very unfortunate. But instead the analyst said my play was 'very poor', and I should have folded pre (yep ok with that) OR shoved all-in pre. Now I totally disagree with that. If I'd done that, I'd only be getting called by a better hand surely??

beaneh

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop : don't get ya, just saying when he peels he only got two options on flop - hit or miss needs to have a plan for both situations, unless we happy to play hit or miss poker and fold every flop we miss I am talking from josemans perspective not phils what are you saying! peel & fold missed flops
Posted by rancid

how would you play other hands not just KTo in joesmans spot.

for example-

44/88/JJ/AA/ATo/KQs/9Ts

similarly the 10bb stack either wont be jamming wide enough to punish our flat and IF he is we can just snap him off when the preflop raiser folds.

rancid

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop : how would you play other hands not just KTo in joesmans spot. for example- 44/88/JJ/AA/ATo/KQs/9Ts similarly the 10bb stack either wont be jamming wide enough to punish our flat and IF he is we can just snap him off when the preflop raiser folds.
Posted by beaneh

Sorry I just don't get what your saying, are you just saying it's more balanced to peel and it's fine to peel and fold to c bet when you miss

20bb for me oop it just seems a fold or peel and crai w/e

maybe i am missing a trick

beaneh

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop : Sorry I just don't get what your saying, are you just saying it's more balanced to peel and it's fine to peel and fold to c bet when you miss 20bb for me oop it just seems a fold or peel and crai w/e maybe i am missing a trick
Posted by rancid

essentially.

he has too much to rejam not for value.

he has too weak a hand to value shove

the opener doesnt have to have purely premiums

it's 6 handed, we can pay 1bb and see a flop.

when we  are dealt our cards we get a whole selection of hand strengths, so we have to be able to play them all.

essentially with 20bb we dont' want to peel 32s because it's so po_o, similarly if we 3bet and it just looks like AA then we'll get loads of folds. so 3bet as a bluff with hands that flop well when called. and peel your bb a bunch with hands that can make top pair and dominate parts of villains opening range, and hands that can flop equity that we can play aggressively.  we can also peel when we have AA so villain cant fold, and so when we c/r ai on a flush draw board he can put us on a drawing hand and call with worse.

Lambert180

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop : essentially. he has too much to rejam not for value. he has too weak a hand to value shove the opener doesnt have to have purely premiums it's 6 handed, we can pay 1bb and see a flop. when we  are dealt our cards we get a whole selection of hand strengths, so we have to be able to play them all. essentially with 20bb we dont' want to peel 32s because it's so po_o, similarly if we 3bet and it just looks like AA then we'll get loads of folds. so 3bet as a bluff with hands that flop well when called. and peel your bb a bunch with hands that can make top pair and dominate parts of villains opening range, and hands that can flop equity that we can play aggressively.  we can also peel when we have AA so villain cant fold, and so when we c/r ai on a flush draw board he can put us on a drawing hand and call with worse.
Posted by beaneh

Just boom

^^^ is exactly why I love reading your posts

Curt360x27

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

Ok here is my two pennith. . Those in TeamKnightPoker F/Book, soz for the repeat post. . . Firstly, and very importantly, I have no problem with Phil for the way he played it. I had a bit of a strop on last night after watching the hand been analysed on TV, and been told I played it very badly. Here is the background. . .  From the moment I was moved to the table I had noticed Phil was his usual aggressive self. He was constantly raising, and inparticular, my bb, and I had decided to let it go and bide my time. By the time this hand was dealt I had approx 20bb, and when he min raised I figured k 10 was good enough to see a flop. I had already decided if I hit, with no Ace on the flop, I was going to check raise him all in. Sure enough it came a 10 high flop, so I checked, Phil did exactly what I expected him to do and bet out, and I carried out my thought process and shoved on him. I got a call and he was totally dominated, so to my mind, my plan worked out perfectly, I was a 90% plus fav. Ok, hey ho, the poker gods decided it wasn't to be, and the Queen arrived on the river. That's poker, good luck to Phil I thought. Now my point is if I had been one of the 'names', ie Julian, Tommyd, or even Phil himself to name just a few, I reckon my play would have been hailed as very good for managing to get all my chips in, and get a call, when a 90% plus fav. Then just be told I was very unfortunate. But instead the analyst said my play was 'very poor', and I should have folded pre (yep ok with that) OR shoved all-in pre. Now I totally disagree with that. If I'd done that, I'd only be getting called by a better hand surely??

Posted by joesman1

Seems pretty poor logic imo ^.

What would you have done if you had AA,KK pre and post flop? How would you have played the hand if you had 44,55 etc? Would you still crai on the flop? Would you flat pre or 3bet shove? Had the you missed the flop and phill leads out (as expected) what would you have done? If the short stack had jammed behind you and phil gets out the way its a pretty horrible spot for you.  

 

Ryan is a very good player and imo one of only two good 'anaylists' Sky have on there shows who talks a lot of sense and explains things very well and knows a lot about the game. So I would always take his advice on board and keep an open mind. However I do agree with you on this point. It can be a regular occurrence on the shows that if a well known player does something that is possibly a mistake, the analyst and presenter will try to give a justification as to why it might be acceptable. 

rancid

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop : essentially. he has too much to rejam not for value. he has too weak a hand to value shove the opener doesnt have to have purely premiums it's 6 handed, we can pay 1bb and see a flop. when we  are dealt our cards we get a whole selection of hand strengths, so we have to be able to play them all. essentially with 20bb we dont' want to peel 32s because it's so po_o, similarly if we 3bet and it just looks like AA then we'll get loads of folds. so 3bet as a bluff with hands that flop well when called. and peel your bb a bunch with hands that can make top pair and dominate parts of villains opening range, and hands that can flop equity that we can play aggressively.  we can also peel when we have AA so villain cant fold, and so when we c/r ai on a flush draw board he can put us on a drawing hand and call with worse.
Posted by beaneh

Totally hear what your saying, been thinking about it on the way home from work )
Obviously depends how wide oppo opens but K10 still feels btm of range to be peeling here.
And it still makes me feel awkward peeling 1.5bb from 20bb stack oop. Makes me feel a bit more comfortable in position though.

Overall your point is a good one as you know ) And has deffo made me re think certain situations - so thanks for that.

rosjim1

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop : Seems pretty poor logic imo ^. What would you have done if you had AA,KK pre and post flop? How would you have played the hand if you had 44,55 etc? Would you still crai on the flop? Would you flat pre or 3bet shove? Had the you missed the flop and phill leads out (as expected) what would you have done? If the short stack had jammed behind you and phil gets out the way its a pretty horrible spot for you.     Ryan is a very good player and imo one of only two good 'anaylists' Sky have on there shows who talks a lot of sense and explains things very well and knows a lot about the game. So I would always take his advice on board and keep an open mind. However I do agree with you on this point. It can be a regular occurrence on the shows that if a well known player does something that is possibly a mistake, the analyst and presenter will try to give a justification as to why it might be acceptable. 
Posted by Curt360x27

well explain the comment that ryan made on the show  that the k10 was played bady and the q10 was well played??? after the money went in on a 1o high board ????

Lambert180

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop : well explain the comment that ryan made on the show  that the k10 was played bady and the q10 was well played??? after the money went in on a 1o high board ????
Posted by rosjim1

Probably cos QT showed the aggression in the hand

Raise pre, good, c-bet good, call it off, good. The QT is pretty faultless

That's not to say you played badly, but QT seems super standard whereas yours is up for debate. To be fair it must be hard sometimes to give perfect analysis with virtually zero thinking time, he doesn't have the leisure of clinic posters.

beaneh

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop : Totally hear what your saying, been thinking about it on the way home from work ) Obviously depends how wide oppo opens but K10 still feels btm of range to be peeling here. And it still makes me feel awkward peeling 1.5bb from 20bb stack oop. Makes me feel a bit more comfortable in position though. Overall your point is a good one as you know ) And has deffo made me re think certain situations - so thanks for that.
Posted by rancid

The fact it's the bottom of the range is a good thing to realise, doesn't mean we shouldn't defend it. 

Given that the opener is playing 6 handed, with 40bb ish and he's a reg, assuming he is opening the best 5% of hands or w/e is silly.

Looking at it more exactly,

we are in sb with 1800 to call into 4200. 

ASSUMING THE BB has passed out and cannot shove because it affects the maths (and as i've already said he's either too tight here most likely or we can snap him off with our peeling range because of the price we'll be getting).

So bb never rejams and messes up our maths.

1800/4200 * 100 gives the % equity we need to make this a breakeven call. or 43%.

Would we rather call 1.5bb from 20 and try to realise our required equity amount with our hands or do we want to rejam 26900 to win 4200 ??

TO have 43% with specifically KTo.... lets run it vs some easily describable (ie some really tight, some really wide opening ranges).

Villain plays just Aces:  

RANGE (% of hands this makes up). / Equity vs KTo

AA (0.5%)  KTo= 13.7%

TT+/AKo+ (3.5%)  KTo= 23.9%

55+/JTo+ (16.1%)   KTo= 40.6%

55+/T9o+/89s+ (27.8%) KTo=47%

22+/46s+/A2o+/T9o+ (38.2%)  KTo= 48%

Now let's use the penultimate opening range, and consider us playing a strategy where we 3b very infrequently and mainly just call and play a flop. Obviously with some hands they are too strong to just flat call and lose alot of equity when overcards come out, and we can put them in our 3bet or 3bet jam range.

Such as-

JJ+/68s+/QJo+ (16%)

we now have 51.57%

The fact that if we judge our opponents range correctly and play a well enough construted range ourself means that the call in and of itself can be +ev so just by c/f ing postflop when we miss,  we still figure to show a profit. That allows us to play a very fit or fold style with regards to not having to c/shove alot as a bluff.

ofc as I said before we are forgetting in this exact maths example about the BB, however when we are flatting such a strong range and he is being given the option of shoving with what he thinks is alot of potentially dead money we have to expect that we will be crushing his range and potentially even getting a rejam to isolate from the preflop raiser. All of which add value to our original call, it is just getting alot more complicated hence i've left it out. 

NB if there were antes in play then EVERYTHING would change, it would turn into much more of a 3bet or fold spot and our calling range would be very strong and infrequent mainly trying to trap the bb. 

beaneh

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop : well explain the comment that ryan made on the show  that the k10 was played bady and the q10 was well played??? after the money went in on a 1o high board ????
Posted by rosjim1

remember 1) that tv people have to be on message (some kind of be nice to anyone and everyone message forgoing actual attempts to improve someone so as to be seen to be being inclusive and nice), 2) that alot of analysts on generic poker tv shows god forbid I talk specifically about sky, are not neccessarily again good, that 3) there are alot of phrases used regularly like aggresssion is good, limping is bad rather than discussions of for and against, and that 4) even though this spot seems relatively simple as can be seen by my post above even just thinking very generally about it the second the maths gets broken out it's probably way too complicated for the bulk of people who want to watch a recreational players tv show.

beaneh

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop : Probably cos QT showed the aggression in the hand Raise pre, good, c-bet good, call it off, good. The QT is pretty faultless That's not to say you played badly, but QT seems super standard whereas yours is up for debate. To be fair it must be hard sometimes to give perfect analysis with virtually zero thinking time, he doesn't have the leisure of clinic posters.
Posted by Lambert180

I would find more to criticise with the flop cbet size from QT than I would from the play of the person with KTo.....

Lambert180

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop : I would find more to criticise with the flop cbet size from QT than I would from the play of the person with KTo.....
Posted by beaneh

Ok fair point, c-bet is too big

bolly580

why shove pre? risk 22Bbs to win 5 or get snapped of by a hand that has you dead to 3 outs

or play a flop with a hand that is infront of a button openers range post flop?

think people get a bit crazy with this flatting OOP nonsense, if your good enough post flop peeling shouldnt be a problem if your not very good at poker yeah just shove

rancid

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop : The fact it's the bottom of the range is a good thing to realise, doesn't mean we shouldn't defend it.  Given that the opener is playing 6 handed, with 40bb ish and he's a reg, assuming he is opening the best 5% of hands or w/e is silly. Looking at it more exactly, we are in sb with 1800 to call into 4200.  ASSUMING THE BB has passed out and cannot shove because it affects the maths (and as i've already said he's either too tight here most likely or we can snap him off with our peeling range because of the price we'll be getting). So bb never rejams and messes up our maths. 1800/4200 * 100 gives the % equity we need to make this a breakeven call. or 43%. Would we rather call 1.5bb from 20 and try to realise our required equity amount with our hands or do we want to rejam 26900 to win 4200 ?? TO have 43% with specifically KTo.... lets run it vs some easily describable (ie some really tight, some really wide opening ranges). Villain plays just Aces:   RANGE (% of hands this makes up). / Equity vs KTo AA (0.5%)  KTo= 13.7% TT+/AKo+ (3.5%)  KTo= 23.9% 55+/JTo+ (16.1%)   KTo= 40.6% 55+/T9o+/89s+ (27.8%) KTo=47% 22+/46s+/A2o+/T9o+ (38.2%)  KTo= 48% Now let's use the penultimate opening range, and consider us playing a strategy where we 3b very infrequently and mainly just call and play a flop. Obviously with some hands they are too strong to just flat call and lose alot of equity when overcards come out, and we can put them in our 3bet or 3bet jam range. Such as- JJ+/68s+/QJo+ (16%) we now have 51.57% The fact that if we judge our opponents range correctly and play a well enough construted range ourself means that the call in and of itself can be +ev so just by c/f ing postflop when we miss,  we still figure to show a profit. That allows us to play a very fit or fold style with regards to not having to c/shove alot as a bluff. ofc as I said before we are forgetting in this exact maths example about the BB, however when we are flatting such a strong range and he is being given the option of shoving with what he thinks is alot of potentially dead money we have to expect that we will be crushing his range and potentially even getting a rejam to isolate from the preflop raiser. All of which add value to our original call, it is just getting alot more complicated hence i've left it out.  NB if there were antes in play then EVERYTHING would change, it would turn into much more of a 3bet or fold spot and our calling range would be very strong and infrequent mainly trying to trap the bb. 
Posted by beaneh

Great explanation - just seen it
I was more for the fold, never the jam
Now you break it down like that yeah peeling is ok, just  think edge on equity isn't that much +EV

But's it's very intresting that it's ok to peel oop like this.
My first reaction was hell no, I am never good enough to make this worthwhile oop.
But taking the fit or fold versus opening range is so nice.

ty gg

GREGHOGG

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop : Great explanation - just seen it I was more for the fold, never the jam Now you break it down like that yeah peeling is ok, just  think edge on equity isn't that much +EV But's it's very intresting that it's ok to peel oop like this. My first reaction was hell no, I am never good enough to make this worthwhile oop. But taking the fit or fold versus opening range is so nice. ty gg
Posted by rancid

+1 beane ur a ledge, appreciate the in depth explanation.

beaneh

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop:

In Response to Re: Primo deep decision pre flop : +1 beane ur a ledge, appreciate the in depth explanation.
Posted by GREGHOGG

this isn't particularly indepth, what happens when we flop 2nd pair? :---p

Curt360x27

Without antes jamming = bad

With antes, jamming is best play vs a player with a stack who we know will be opening wide in this spot, generally  = good

Will be very interesting to see how much it will shake MTT's up on SKY when they are introduced. Will defiantley be for the better.

bearlyther

Yes fair point benneh makes sense.  Antes should be on the priority list for sky to bring in they are essential.

unknown_username

Hi Beaneh

Just loved that detailed mathematical post thugh some points i didn't undersand because of my level of 'thickness'. Just shows how little i know but appreciate your efforts. Ty very much as there was a lot to take in.