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peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!
In Response to peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:
Hey guys, I am quite experienced when it comes to sports betting (despite only being 21) and do make a profit overall when it comes to placing bets, albeit playing at a low stake level. My most common sport to bet on is football, and while I am a football nut - my true passion in life is Motorsport. I am now combining by experience gambling and my love of Formula One to create this thread/challenge. How it works I will be staking a maximum of £10 before every Grand Prix of the season in order to try and make a profit. This may be on one bet, or several bets - but each week a maximum of £10 will be wagered. I will post all my bets here for you to see how I get on, and maybe even copy if you wanted - these essentially will be my tips!Good Luck!
Posted by peter27
Comments
I am quite experienced when it comes to sports betting (despite only being 21) and do make a profit overall when it comes to placing bets, albeit playing at a low stake level. My most common sport to bet on is football, and while I am a football nut - my true passion in life is Motorsport. I am now combining by experience gambling and my love of Formula One to create this thread/challenge.
How it works
I will be staking a maximum of £10 before every Grand Prix of the season in order to try and make a profit. This may be on one bet, or several bets - but each week a maximum of £10 will be wagered. I will post all my bets here for you to see how I get on, and maybe even copy if you wanted - these essentially will be my tips!
Record
Pre-Season: + £162.12
Race 1: Australia + £2.38
Race 2: Malaysia + £4
Race 3: Bahrain + £2.70
Race 4: China - £1.87
Race 5: Spain - £4.90
Race 6: Monaco + £12.88
Race 7: Canada + £1.08
Race 8: Austria + £7.00
Race 9: Britain - £5.50
Race 10: Germany - £1.70
Race 11: Hungary - £3.64
Race 12: Belgium - £2.40
Race 13: Italy + £3.72
Race 14: Singapore + £4.80
Race 15: Japan + £0.00
Race 16: Russia + £6.67
Race 17: United States + £3.00
Race 18: Brazil - £20.00
Race 19: Abu Dhabi + £64.09
Total: + £234.43
About to post some bets now.
Did not set myself a limit for these ones - the £10 limit only applies to the individual races.
Sky Bet
Mercedes 1-2 in Drivers Champs (Hamilton/Rosberg in any order) @ 7/2 - £10
Mercedes F1 to win 8 or more races during the season @ 6/4 - £10
Marussia F1 team to score a point in any of the first four races @ 4/5 - £10
Red Bull NOT to finish on podium in any of the first 5 races @ 13/8 - £8
Mercedes to win first 5 races @ 14/1 - £5
Vettel NOT to win a race in 2014 @ 11/4 - £4
Marussia and Caterham both to score a point during the season @ 6/4 - £4
Williams to finish in top 3 of the Constructors Championship @ 9/4 - £2.50
Felipe Massa to outscore Fernando Alonso (whole season) @ 9/4 - £2.50
Betfred
Constructors Championship 2014 Outright Winner: Mercedes @ EVS - £50
Total staked: £106
To be settled: £106
Returned: £0
Profit/Loss: £0
That's 2x your poker bankroll staked in post 1!
Saw a tip for Hamilton to win SPOTY in 2014 @ 14/1 ?
More value in that than backing him to win the F1 C'ship?
The favourite for SPOTY is Andy Murray, but he has doubts over his fitness and would probably need to win Wimbledon again to win the award.
Other rivals in the market are Chris Froome and Lizzy Yarnold from the winter Olympics, so not too much competition.
http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner
Sky Bet
Qualifying Winning Margin: 0.250 Secs or More @ 5/4 - £1.50
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 4/1 - £1
Top 6 Finish: Sergio Perez @ 2/1 - £1
1st Team to Retire: Lotus @ 5/1 - £1
William Hill
Winning Constructor - Race: Mercedes @ EVS - £2
Podium Finish: Felipe Massa @ 11/4 - £1
Race Winner (EW): Jules Bianchi @ 1000/1 - £1*
Points Finish: Jules Bianchi @ 6/1 - £0.50
Pole, Fastest Lap & Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 16/1 - £0.50
Podium Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 6/1 - £0.50
*Obviously this selection is very unlikely, but I figure if the unreliability is worse than anyone expected, it's possible - good value at 1000/1 in my opinion!
Total staked: £10
To be settled: £10
Returned: £0
Profit/Loss: £0
I will be staking considerably more on F1 betting though because I have a much more detailed knowledge of F1 than I do poker! Of course I am working on my poker, but I doubt I will ever get to the same level as I am with motorsport, I have been watching religiously since I was four years old
SPOTY is not something I know too much about, but I guess 14/1 is value. Then again, I wouldn't say Lewis has done anything special in the last year so I'm not sure why he would win it (that is assuming the award is given based on performance in their respective field)?
Can't see many potential rivals tbh, maybe some will emerge from the boxing world throughout the year.
Anyway gl this weekend.
Thank you very much! Fingers crossed :-)
same bet but less on Red bull EVENS . (Just hope they both make it to the finish)
Sky Bet
Qualifying Winning Margin: 0.250 Secs or More @ 5/4 - £1.50 ... WON £3.38
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 4/1 - £1 ... WON £5
Top 6 Finish: Sergio Perez @ 2/1 - £1 ... LOST
1st Team to Retire: Lotus @ 5/1 - £1 ... LOST
William Hill
Winning Constructor - Race: Mercedes @ EVS - £2 ... WON £4
Podium Finish: Felipe Massa @ 11/4 - £1 ... LOST
Race Winner (EW): Jules Bianchi @ 1000/1 - £1 ... LOST
Points Finish: Jules Bianchi @ 6/1 - £0.50 ... LOST
Pole, Fastest Lap & Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 16/1 - £0.50 ... LOST
Podium Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 6/1 - £0.50 ... LOST
Total staked: £10
To be settled: £0
Returned: £12.38
Profit/Loss: + £2.38
In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!: None of these came off sadly :-(
Sky Bet
Total Classified Finishers: Under 14.5 Finishers @ EVS - £1.25
Vettel Specials: Not to be Classified @ 2/1 - £1.25
Top 6 Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 3/1 - £1.25
Lap 1 Retirements: 4 or More @ 7/1 - £1.25
Ricciardo Specials: Not to be Classified @ 2/1 - £1
William Hill
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 2/1 - £2
Podium Finish: Valtteri Bottas @ 13/5 - £1
First Constructor Retirement: Lotus @ 5/1 - £1
Found it difficult to find value spots for this race, but I think I did a decent job in the end. Clearly from my selections I think Malaysia will be a race of attrition. Due to the humidity, the power units will be under much more stress than experienced at the last race and that's why I am expecting unreliability to be much higher than in Australia - not to mention the prospect of monsoon rains. One stumbling block may be if the race director decides to throw the safety car before the rain gets too bad, thus reducing the chances of cars spinning out and lowering the stress on the power units. Let's see what happens!
Total staked: £10
To be settled: £10
Returned: £0
Profit/Loss: £0
Sky Bet
Total Classified Finishers: Under 14.5 Finishers @ EVS - £1.25 ... LOST
Vettel Specials: Not to be Classified @ 2/1 - £1.25 ... LOST
Top 6 Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 3/1 - £1.25 ... WON £5
Lap 1 Retirements: 4 or More @ 7/1 - £1.25 ... LOST
Ricciardo Specials: Not to be Classified @ 2/1 - £1 ... WON £3
William Hill
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 2/1 - £2 ... LOST
Podium Finish: Valtteri Bottas @ 13/5 - £1 ... LOST
First Constructor Retirement: Lotus @ 5/1 - £1 ... WON £6
Total staked: £10
To be settled: £0
Returned: £14
Profit/Loss: + £4.00
Sky Bet
Mercedes 1-2 in Drivers Champs (Hamilton/Rosberg in any order) @ 7/2 - £10
Mercedes F1 to win 8 or more races during the season @ 6/4 - £10
Marussia F1 team to score a point in any of the first four races @ 4/5 - £10
Red Bull NOT to finish on podium in any of the first 5 races @ 13/8 - £8 ... LOST
Mercedes to win first 5 races @ 14/1 - £5
Vettel NOT to win a race in 2014 @ 11/4 - £4
Marussia and Caterham both to score a point during the season @ 6/4 - £4
Williams to finish in top 3 of the Constructors Championship @ 9/4 - £2.50
Felipe Massa to outscore Fernando Alonso (whole season) @ 9/4 - £2.50
Betfred
Constructors Championship 2014 Outright Winner: Mercedes @ EVS - £50
Total staked: £106
To be settled: £98
Returned: £0
Profit/Loss: - £8
Good luck with the thread, and of course Bahrain. Will post my thoughts after practise, or qualifying.
Sky Bet
Points Finish: Sergio Perez @ 7/4 - £1
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 9/4 - £1
Raikkonen Specials: Set Race Fastest Lap @ 18/1 - £0.50
William Hill
Top 6 Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 6/4 - £2
Bet365
Podium Finish: Sebastian Vettel @ 11/10 - £1
Bwin
Race Specials: How many cars will be placed in the final classification: Exactly 15 cars @ 15/2 - £1
PaddyPower
Outright Group Betting 2 (Bot/Mas/Rai/But): Kimi Raikkonen @ 12/5 - £2
Outright Group Betting 3 (Mag/Hul/Ric/Ver): Daniel Ricciardo @ 23/10 - £1.50
Actually found value spots for this race quite easy, spread my bets across several different bookies - as you can see. Fingers crossed!
Total staked: £10
To be settled: £10
Returned: £0
Profit/Loss: £0
Yeah, I would love you to post your own tips on here - would be great to have some competition
In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!: I strongly disagree. Of course, that was never going to happen under normal circumstances - but the opening race was not normal circumstances, we had no idea how many cars would finish. It was perfectly reasonable to assume that any car that finished the race would score points given what had happened in pre-season testing. There were only 13 finishers in that race so it was close (although he did retire himself actually - we needed him to finish the race). Given the 1000/1 price, I was more than happy to place 10% of my "weekend roll" on it :-)
My podium prediction (post-qualifying) would be Rosberg, Hamilton & Perez. As for drivers to score points, I would suggest Nico Hulkenberg for a top six finish (something I already tipped this weekend, see above) and Daniil Kvyat to score points from 12th on the grid might also provide some value. Hope that helps!
Sky Bet
Points Finish: Sergio Perez @ 7/4 - £1 ... WON £2.75
Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 9/4 - £1 ... LOST
Raikkonen Specials: Set Race Fastest Lap @ 18/1 - £0.50 ... LOST
William Hill
Top 6 Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 6/4 - £2 ... WON £5
Bet365
Podium Finish: Sebastian Vettel @ 11/10 - £1 ... LOST
Bwin
Race Specials: How many cars will be placed in the final classification: Exactly 15 cars @ 15/2 - £1 ... LOST
PaddyPower
Outright Group Betting 2 (Bot/Mas/Rai/But): Kimi Raikkonen @ 12/5 - £2 ... LOST
Outright Group Betting 3 (Mag/Hul/Ric/Ver): Daniel Ricciardo @ 23/10 - £1.50 ... WON £4.95
Total staked: £10
To be settled: £0
Returned: £12.70
Profit/Loss: + £2.70
Yep, I knew Mercedes' car is that dominant. The funny thing is that I'm still pretty sure the team did not have their engines running at full power during the race ..
Bet Victor*
Podium Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 4/1 - £1
Top 6 Finish: Sergio Perez @ 6/5 - £1
Outright Group C Race (Rai/Per/Mag/Kvy): Sergio Perez @ 37/20 - £1
Outright Group A Race (Vet/Alo/Bot/Ric): Valtteri Bottas @ 11/4 - £0.50
Outright Group B Race (Mas/Hul/But/Per): Nico Hulkenberg @ 9/4 - £0.50
Bwin
Race Specials: How many cars will be placed in the final classification: Exactly 15 cars @ 15/2 - £1
SkyBet
Race Winner: Nico Robserg @ 2/1 - £2
1st Practice: Nico Hulkenberg @ 33/1 - £0.50
StanJames
Safety Car: Yes @ 5/4 - £1.50
William Hill
Points Finish: Daniil Kvyat @ 2/1 - £1
The two Force India drivers feature quite heavily in my bets this weekend - hopefully they show strongly like at the previous race. I see no reason to suggest otherwise.
*Note: My Bet Victor bets were done using "promo cash", essentially they are free bets and if they win I will be returned the profit, but not the original stake.
Total staked: £10 (including £4 in promo cash)
To be settled: £10 (including £4 in promo cash)
Returned: £0
Profit/Loss: £0
I am SUPER confident that will come off, and 3/1 is a cracking price! Wish I had a spare £1K to put on it to be honest!