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peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!

24

Comments

  • edited April 2014
    Hi Peter.

    Impressive yields from the opening 3 races and I'll be watching your LOCK BET with zeal. Season long bets are not for me though.

    Scouring the markets on betfair I noticed:

    1. Hulkenberg podium - 7.4
    2. Saftey car - 2.46
    3. Perez top 6 - 2.4

    I'd strongly recommend that you always take the best prices unless you're boycotting a particular firm. May seem trivial on a one off basis but it surely adds up over time.


    Edit*** These are available prices. You could get matched even higher as theres not much liquidity and the markets are yet to fully form.

    *****second edit. If you're opening new accounts and getting 'promo cash' you should lump it on in 1 bet then green up on the exchanges. Its crucial not to let genuine free money opportunuties slip away. 
  • edited April 2014
    In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:
    Hi Peter. Impressive yields from the opening 3 races and I'll be watching your LOCK BET with zeal. Season long bets are not for me though. Scouring the markets on betfair I noticed: 1. Hulkenberg podium - 7.4 2. Saftey car - 2.46 3. Perez top 6 - 2.4 I'd strongly recommend that you always take the best prices unless you're boycotting a particular firm. May seem trivial on a one off basis but it surely adds up over time. Edit*** These are available prices. You could get matched even higher as theres not much liquidity and the markets are yet to fully form. *****second edit. If you're opening new accounts and getting 'promo cash' you should lump it on in 1 bet then green up on the exchanges. Its crucial not to let genuine free money opportunuties slip away. 
    Posted by ff55hh
    Thanks! :-)

    I always use oddschecker to find the best prices, but the one site I do not use is betfair - it confuses me to be honest, I don't like the user interface at all and have had many deposit issues with them in the past :/

    Curious to know why you think I should lump any promo cash on one bet rather than spreading it around? Would this provide an advantage that I haven't thought about?
  • edited April 2014
    In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:
    Just noticed a nice bet on Sky right now here . I am SUPER confident that will come off, and 3/1 is a cracking price! Wish I had a spare £1K to put on it to be honest! :/ I urge all of you to lump on!
    Posted by peter27
    The link isn't working Peter, what was it? Is it too late?
  • edited April 2014
    In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:
    In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread! : The link isn't working Peter, what was it? Is it too late?
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    They took it down while FP1 is running, should be back up shortly. It was under "win specials": Mercedes to win 16 or more races this season :-)
  • edited April 2014
    Alright Peter.

    An example of what to do with promo cash -

    £10 promo on rosberg @ 2/1
    ~£6.50 lay of rosberg @ 3.0

    If he wins you get £20 on VC and - £13 on betfair so +£7 total
    If he loses you lose the promo cash and win £6.12 on betfair so +£6.12

    Hopefully you can make more from the £10 promo but I prefer the easy life. Also be careful that the promo cash doesn't expire before the next F1 offering.

    I'm surprised you had deposit problems with any site to be honest, they need the liquidity.

    Also, what happened to your poker diary, it was one of my favourites?
  • edited April 2014
    In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:
    Alright Peter. An example of what to do with promo cash - £10 promo on rosberg @ 2/1 ~£6.50 lay of rosberg @ 3.0 If he wins you get £20 on VC and - £13 on betfair so +£7 total If he loses you lose the promo cash and win £6.12 on betfair so +£6.12 Hopefully you can make more from the £10 promo but I prefer the easy life. Also be careful that the promo cash doesn't expire before the next F1 offering. I'm surprised you had deposit problems with any site to be honest, they need the liquidity. Also, what happened to your poker diary, it was one of my favourites?
    Posted by ff55hh
    Ah, matched betting! I used to be on a site that would tell you exactly how much to place on what and on which site (that is assuming you hadn't already signed up to those bookies, and could therefore recieve the new player offers). However, like you said, if you're selections are right while betting with the traditional method - you will make more :-)

    I only had £5 of promo cash, and have already spent £4 on my Chinese GP bets :p

    My poker diary is still going on here :-)
  • edited April 2014
    Pre-Season (Update)

    Sky Bet

    Mercedes 1-2 in Drivers Champs (Hamilton/Rosberg in any order) @ 7/2 - £10
    Mercedes F1 to win 8 or more races during the season @ 6/4 - £10
    Marussia F1 team to score a point in any of the first four races @ 4/5 - £10
    ... LOST
    Red Bull NOT to finish on podium in any of the first 5 races @ 13/8 - £8
    ... LOST
    Mercedes to win first 5 races @ 14/1 - £5
    Vettel NOT to win a race in 2014 @ 11/4 - £4
    Marussia and Caterham both to score a point during the season @ 6/4 - £4
    Williams to finish in top 3 of the Constructors Championship @ 9/4 - £2.50
    Felipe Massa to outscore Fernando Alonso (whole season) @ 9/4 - £2.50

    Betfred

    Constructors Championship 2014 Outright Winner: Mercedes @ EVS - £50

    Total staked: £106
    To be settled: £88
    Returned: £0
    Profit/Loss: - £18
  • edited April 2014
    Race 4: China

    Bet Victor*
    Podium Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 4/1 - £1 ... LOST
    Top 6 Finish: Sergio Perez @ 6/5 - £1 ... LOST
    Outright Group C Race (Rai/Per/Mag/Kvy): Sergio Perez @ 37/20 - £1 ... LOST
    Outright Group A Race (Vet/Alo/Bot/Ric): Valtteri Bottas @ 11/4 - £0.50 ... LOST
    Outright Group B Race (Mas/Hul/But/Per): Nico Hulkenberg @ 9/4 - £0.50 ... WON £1.13

    Bwin
    Race Specials: How many cars will be placed in the final classification: Exactly 15 cars @ 15/2 - £1 ... LOST

    SkyBet
    Race Winner: Nico Robserg @ 2/1 - £2 ... LOST
    1st Practice: Nico Hulkenberg @ 33/1 - £0.50 ... LOST

    StanJames
    Safety Car: Yes @ 5/4 - £1.50 ... LOST

    William Hill
    Points Finish: Daniil Kvyat @ 2/1 - £1 ... WON £3

    I knew this would be a bad week for me after qualifying really - but my losses were dampened by the fact that £4 of my stake was promo cash!

    Total staked: £10 (including £4 in promo cash)
    To be settled: £0
    Returned: £4.13
    Profit/Loss: - £1.87 (- £4 in promo cash)
  • edited May 2014
    Race 5: Spain

    Paddy Power
    Podium Finish: Sebastian Vettel @ 7/4 - £0.50

    Bet Victor
    Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 13/5 - £1
    Top 6 Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 6/5 - £1

    Bet365
    Number Of Finishers: 18 or 19 @ 11/4 - £2

    Bwin
    Race Leaders: Over 2.5 @ 12/5 - £1
    Fernando Alonso Practice One Top 3 Finish: No @ 17/11 - £2

    Given that all teams will be bringing a host of upgrades to this race, the pecking order could well be completely different and therefore I have only bet £7.50 rather than my usual £10, I may place more bets after the practice sessions however :-)

    Total staked: £7.50
    To be settled: £7.50
    Returned: £0
    Profit/Loss: £0
  • edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:
    Race 5: Bwin Race Leaders: Over 2.5 @ 12/5 - £1 Fernando Alonso Practice One Top 3 Finish: No @ 17/11 - £2 
    Posted by peter27
    LOL @ the baffling fractional odds from Bwin!! They were going 42/43 on something earlier :-)))

    Good luck Peter, I'll be following with interest again.
  • edited May 2014
    Just bet my remaining £2.50 for this week:

    Race 5: Spain
    (In-Play)

    William Hill
    Pole Position: Nico Rosberg @ 11/10 - £2.50
  • edited May 2014
    Pre-Season (Update)

    Sky Bet

    Mercedes 1-2 in Drivers Champs (Hamilton/Rosberg in any order) @ 7/2 - £10
    Mercedes F1 to win 8 or more races during the season @ 6/4 - £10
    Marussia F1 team to score a point in any of the first four races @ 4/5 - £10
    ... LOST
    Red Bull NOT to finish on podium in any of the first 5 races @ 13/8 - £8
    ... LOST
    Mercedes to win first 5 races @ 14/1 - £5 ... WON £75
    Vettel NOT to win a race in 2014 @ 11/4 - £4
    Marussia and Caterham both to score a point during the season @ 6/4 - £4
    Williams to finish in top 3 of the Constructors Championship @ 9/4 - £2.50
    Felipe Massa to outscore Fernando Alonso (whole season) @ 9/4 - £2.50

    Betfred

    Constructors Championship 2014 Outright Winner: Mercedes @ EVS - £50

    Total staked: £106
    To be settled: £83
    Returned: £75
    Profit/Loss: + £57
  • edited May 2014
    Race 5: Spain

    Paddy Power
    Podium Finish: Sebastian Vettel @ 7/4 - £0.50 ... LOST

    Bet Victor
    Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 13/5 - £1 ... LOST
    Top 6 Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 6/5 - £1 ... LOST

    Bet365
    Number Of Finishers: 18 or 19 @ 11/4 - £2 ... LOST

    Bwin
    Race Leaders: Over 2.5 @ 12/5 - £1 ... LOST
    Fernando Alonso Practice One Top 3 Finish: No @ 17/11 - £2 ... WON £5.10

    William Hill
    Pole Position: Nico Rosberg @ 11/10 - £2.50 ... LOST

    Lost money on the race sadly, but I did win £75 for Mercedes winning the first five races of the season, so happy at that (see the post above).

    Total staked: £10
    To be settled: £0
    Returned: £5.10
    Profit/Loss: - £4.90
  • edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:
    Pre-Season (Update) Sky Bet Mercedes 1-2 in Drivers Champs (Hamilton/Rosberg in any order) @ 7/2 - £10 Mercedes F1 to win 8 or more races during the season @ 6/4 - £10 Marussia F1 team to score a point in any of the first four races @ 4/5 - £10 ... LOST Red Bull NOT to finish on podium in any of the first 5 races @ 13/8 - £8 ... LOST Mercedes to win first 5 races @ 14/1 - £5 ... WON £75 Vettel NOT to win a race in 2014 @ 11/4 - £4 Marussia and Caterham both to score a point during the season @ 6/4 - £4 Williams to finish in top 3 of the Constructors Championship @ 9/4 - £2.50 Felipe Massa to outscore Fernando Alonso (whole season) @ 9/4 - £2.50 Betfred Constructors Championship 2014 Outright Winner: Mercedes @ EVS - £50 Total staked: £106 To be settled: £83 Returned: £75 Profit/Loss: + £57
    Posted by peter27
    Very nice shout Peter
  • edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:
    In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread! : Very nice shout Peter
    Posted by ff55hh
    Thanks! :-)

    Monaco bets will be up shortly.
  • edited May 2014
    Race 6: Monaco

    Bet Victor
    Points Finish: Kevin Magnussen @ 5/4 - £1
    Group B (Alo/Bot/Mas/Rai): Fernando Alonso @ EVS - £1
    Group C (Gro/But/Hul/Per): Sergio Perez @ 9/2 - 50p
    Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 12/5 - £1

    Ladbrokes
    W/O Mercedes: Daniel Ricciardo @ 9/4 - 50p
    To Reach Qualifying Session Three: Kevin Magnussen @ 5/2 - 50p

    Sky Bet
    Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button @ 2/1 - £1

    Bwin
    Number Of Finishers: Exactly 17 @ 13/2 - 50p
    Caterham Total Finishers: 1 @ 4/3 - 50p
    Lotus Total Finishers: 1 @ 6/5 - 50p
    Total Safety Car Periods: 3 Or More @ 13/4 - 50p

    Coral
    Not To Finish The Race: Esteban Gutierrez @ EVS - £1
    Not To Finish The Race: Daniil Kyvat @ 7/4 - £1
    Not To Finish The Race: Sebastian Vettel @ 5/1 - 50p

    Total staked: £10.00
    To be settled: £10.00
    Returned: £0
    Profit/Loss: £0
  • edited May 2014
    Hi Peter, tidy effort again.

    Couple of questions.....

    1. Would you consider a point staking system???

    Should make it easier to track your progress.

    2. I know that you don't have a large data sample yet but do you have an idea about which markets you're doing best at?? 

    I would check myself but your scattergun approach is making it hard :-)))))
  • edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:
    Hi Peter, tidy effort again. Couple of questions..... 1. Would you consider a point staking system??? Should make it easier to track your progress. 2. I know that you don't have a large data sample yet but do you have an idea about which markets you're doing best at??  I would check myself but your scattergun approach is making it hard :-)))))
    Posted by ff55hh
    A point staking system? As in betting 1000 points every race where 1 point is 1p (just an example)? I'm not sure what that would achieve really? Maybe I don't know what you mean - please elaborate :-)

    Nope, no idea to be honest - maybe I'll make some statistics on it if I get time though. I do look to set to make great profits on my pre-season bets though! In some ways it's a shame however, because I knew for certain that would be the case, just didn't have the capital to support that. Wanted to put much more than just £50 on Mercedes to win the title at EVS for instance.
  • edited May 2014
    Say that your standard stake from a £10 BR is £1.

    1pt = £1

    Adjust from 0.5 -2pts depending on your perception of value.

    Double the value of 1pt once your roll is £20. Same at £40 and so on.

    Should stop your data from being misleading in my opinion
  • edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:
    Say that your standard stake from a £10 BR is £1. 1pt = £1 Adjust from 0.5 -2pts depending on your perception of value. Double the value of 1pt once your roll is £20. Same at £40 and so on. Should stop your data from being misleading in my opinion
    Posted by ff55hh
    Ahh, I see what you mean!

    Although we could just do the calculations to see my most profitable market rather than using a points system - it's about the same amount of work, just either before (points system) or after (manually checking).

    I'm not sure that made a whole lot of sense, but I know what I mean haha! Personally, I would rather just deal with cash - the aim is quite simply to make money, so using currency instead of points is something I'm happy with. Having said that, if I were varying my stake from week to week then a points system would be a very viable option :-)
  • edited May 2014
    Race 6: Monaco (Update)

    Bet Victor
    Points Finish: Kevin Magnussen @ 5/4 - £1
    Group B (Alo/Bot/Mas/Rai): Fernando Alonso @ EVS - £1
    Group C (Gro/But/Hul/Per): Sergio Perez @ 9/2 - 50p
    Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 12/5 - £1

    Ladbrokes
    W/O Mercedes: Daniel Ricciardo @ 9/4 - 50p
    To Reach Qualifying Session Three: Kevin Magnussen @ 5/2 - 50p ... WON £1.75

    Sky Bet
    Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button @ 2/1 - £1

    Bwin
    Number Of Finishers: Exactly 17 @ 13/2 - 50p
    Caterham Total Finishers: 1 @ 4/3 - 50p
    Lotus Total Finishers: 1 @ 6/5 - 50p
    Total Safety Car Periods: 3 Or More @ 13/4 - 50p

    Coral
    Not To Finish The Race: Esteban Gutierrez @ EVS - £1
    Not To Finish The Race: Daniil Kyvat @ 7/4 - £1
    Not To Finish The Race: Sebastian Vettel @ 5/1 - 50p

    Total staked: £10.00
    To be settled: £9.50
    Returned: £1.75
    Profit/Loss: + £1.75
  • edited May 2014
    Race 6: Monaco

    Bet Victor
    Points Finish: Kevin Magnussen @ 5/4 - £1 ... WON £2.25
    Group B (Alo/Bot/Mas/Rai): Fernando Alonso @ EVS - £1 ... WON £2
    Group C (Gro/But/Hul/Per): Sergio Perez @ 9/2 - 50p ... LOST
    Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 12/5 - £1 ... WON £3.40

    Ladbrokes
    W/O Mercedes: Daniel Ricciardo @ 9/4 - 50p ... WON £1.63
    To Reach Qualifying Session Three: Kevin Magnussen @ 5/2 - 50p ... WON £1.75

    Sky Bet
    Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button @ 2/1 - £1 ... WON £3

    Bwin
    Number Of Finishers: Exactly 17 @ 13/2 - 50p ... LOST
    Caterham Total Finishers: 1 @ 4/3 - 50p ... LOST
    Lotus Total Finishers: 1 @ 6/5 - 50p ... WON £1.10
    Total Safety Car Periods: 3 Or More @ 13/4 - 50p ... LOST

    Coral
    Not To Finish The Race: Esteban Gutierrez @ EVS - £1 ... WON £2
    Not To Finish The Race: Daniil Kyvat @ 7/4 - £1 ... WON £2.75
    Not To Finish The Race: Sebastian Vettel @ 5/1 - 50p ... WON £3

    Total staked: £10.00
    To be settled: £0
    Returned: £22.88
    Profit/Loss: + £12.88
  • edited June 2014
    Race 7: Canada

    Bet Victor
    Points Finish: Daniil Kyvat @ 15/8 - £1
    To Reach Qualifying Session Three: Kevin Magnussen @ EVS - £1
    No Points Finish: Kimi Raikkonen @ 9/4 - 50p

    Stan James
    Points Finish: Romain Grosjean @ 2/1 - 50p

    Sky Bet
    Top 6 Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 15/8 - £1
    Hat Trick (Pole, Win, Fastest Lap): Lewis Hamilton @ 9/4 - £1.25

    William Hill
    Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button @ 5/2 - £1

    Paddy Power
    Group C (Bot/Mas/But/Mag): Jenson Button @ 12/5 - 50p
    Double Points Finish: Force India @ 11/10 - £1
    W/O Mercedes: Nico Hulkenberg @ 20/1 - 25p

    Bwin
    Double Points Finish: McLaren @ 2/1 - £1
    Lotus Total Finishers: 1 @ 6/5 - 50p
    Sauber Total Finishers: 1 @ 11/10 - 50p

    Total staked: £10.00
    To be settled: £10.00
    Returned: £0
    Profit/Loss: £0
  • edited June 2014
    Race 7: Canada (Update)

    Bet Victor
    Points Finish: Daniil Kyvat @ 15/8 - £1
    To Reach Qualifying Session Three: Kevin Magnussen @ EVS - £1 ... LOST
    No Points Finish: Kimi Raikkonen @ 9/4 - 50p

    Stan James
    Points Finish: Romain Grosjean @ 2/1 - 50p

    Sky Bet
    Top 6 Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 15/8 - £1
    Hat Trick (Pole, Win, Fastest Lap): Lewis Hamilton @ 9/4 - £1.25 ... LOST

    William Hill
    Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button @ 5/2 - £1

    Paddy Power
    Group C (Bot/Mas/But/Mag): Jenson Button @ 12/5 - 50p
    Double Points Finish: Force India @ 11/10 - £1
    W/O Mercedes: Nico Hulkenberg @ 20/1 - 25p

    Bwin
    Double Points Finish: McLaren @ 2/1 - £1
    Lotus Total Finishers: 1 @ 6/5 - 50p
    Sauber Total Finishers: 1 @ 11/10 - 50p

    Total staked: £10.00
    To be settled: £10.00
    Returned: £0
    Profit/Loss: £0
  • edited June 2014
    Just done this in play bet with 11 laps left . Can,t beleive rosberg is still 1.9 with dodgy brakes and a host of cars right behind him

    EDIT : Knew i should have backed amount of finishers as its known as a difficult circuit and takes a lot out of the btrakes. Thinkm there down to 15 cars now or less

    Placed (matched)

    Back (Bet For)OddsStakeProfit
    Canadian GP http://sn4.cdnbf.net/exchange/page/images/darker_sprite_12260_.png') 0px -1331px no-repeat transparent" class="inplay">(In-Play)
    Daniel RicciardoWinner12.5£2.50
    £28.75
    Ref: 38088075517M Matched: 20:27 08-Jun-14
  • edited June 2014
    Race 7: Canada

    Bet Victor
    Points Finish: Daniil Kyvat @ 15/8 - £1 ... LOST
    To Reach Qualifying Session Three: Kevin Magnussen @ EVS - £1 ... LOST
    No Points Finish: Kimi Raikkonen @ 9/4 - 50p ... LOST

    Stan James
    Points Finish: Romain Grosjean @ 2/1 - 50p ... LOST

    Sky Bet
    Top 6 Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 15/8 - £1 ... WON £2.88
    Hat Trick (Pole, Win, Fastest Lap): Lewis Hamilton @ 9/4 - £1.25 ... LOST

    William Hill
    Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button @ 5/2 - £1 ... WON £3.50

    Paddy Power
    Group C (Bot/Mas/But/Mag): Jenson Button @ 12/5 - 50p ... WON £1.70
    Double Points Finish: Force India @ 11/10 - £1 ... LOST
    W/O Mercedes: Nico Hulkenberg @ 20/1 - 25p ... LOST

    Bwin
    Double Points Finish: McLaren @ 2/1 - £1 ... WON £3.00
    Lotus Total Finishers: 1 @ 6/5 - 50p ... LOST
    Sauber Total Finishers: 1 @ 11/10 - 50p ... LOST

    Total staked: £10.00
    To be settled: £0
    Returned: £11.08
    Profit/Loss: + £1.08
  • edited June 2014
    In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:
    Just done this in play bet with 11 laps left . Can,t beleive rosberg is still 1.9 with dodgy brakes and a host of cars right behind him EDIT : Knew i should have backed amount of finishers as its known as a difficult circuit and takes a lot out of the btrakes. Thinkm there down to 15 cars now or less Placed (matched) Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit Canadian GP   http://sn4.cdnbf.net/exchange/page/images/darker_sprite_12260_.png ') 0px -1331px no-repeat transparent" class="inplay">(In-Play) Daniel Ricciardo Winner 12.5 £2.50 £28.75 Ref: 38088075517M Matched: 20:27 08-Jun-14
    Posted by MP33
    Nice bet! Good stuff! :-)
  • edited June 2014
    Race 8: Austria

    Bet365
    Number Of Finishers: Over 18 @ 2/1 - £2

    Bet Victor
    Top 4 Finish: Sergio Perez @ 7/1 - £1
    Group B (BOT/HUL/RAI/BUT): Nico Hulkenberg @ 9/4 - £1
    Group C (MAL/SUT/GUT/BIA): Pastor Maldonado @ 23/20 - £2

    Sky Bet
    Practice 1 - Winning Driver: Daniel Ricciardo @ 16/1 - 25p
    Practice 1 - Winning Driver: Sebastian Vettel @ 16/1 - 25p

    Bwin
    Double Points Finish: Force India @ 6/5 - £1

    William Hill
    Group 4 (VER/KVY/GRO/MAL): Daniil Kvyat @ 13/8 - £1

    Total staked: £8.50
    To be settled: £8.50
    Returned: £0
    Profit/Loss: £0

    Still got £1.50 more to play with this weekend, will probably use it pre-qualifying.
  • edited June 2014
    In Response to Re: peter27's Formula One Betting Thread!:
     Saw a tip for Hamilton to win SPOTY in 2014 @ 14/1 ? More value in that than backing him to win the F1 C'ship? 
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    7/4 now :/
  • edited June 2014
    Placed my additional £1.50 for this week on Sergio Perez to score points at 2/1 with Bet Victor.
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