It's just variance...............

unknown_username

In Response to Re: It's just varience...............:

so you do better on another site.....woopdy do sample lol
Posted by YOUNG_GUN

Not the point ........ I do so bad on here is the point.

If it's my game at fault, why is it so different ?

If it's varience why is it so different if it's all random ?

Varience shouldn't effect one site and not others.

I haven't hardly won a hand in 20 ME BH's and not taken one single bounty on Sky, and yet I can regularly better 95%+ of the field elsewhere.

Do the 6 out of 7 exits listed above look normal to you?

unknown_username

A little bit more positive variance on the other side ...........

PokerStars Tournament #407010533, No Limit Hold'em
Buy-In: $20.00/$2.00 USD
1111 players
Total Prize Pool: $54860.00 USD 
Tournament started 2011/02/16 19:15:00 WET [2011/02/16 14:15:00 ET]
Tournament finished 2011/02/17 4:47:48 WET [2011/02/16 23:47:48 ET]
1: HustlerKobe (Ukraine), $10094.39 (18.4%)
2: popdog (United Kingdom), $7323.81 (13.35%)
3: Prugi (Poland), $5486.00 (10%)
4: bundesmiro (Germany), $4114.50 (7.5%)
5: rudis80 (Sweden), $2880.15 (5.25%)
6: Giftpil$ (Germany), $2331.55 (4.25%)
7: arrotin9 (Switzerland), $1782.95 (3.25%)
8: UlisJoker (Russian Federation), $1234.35 (2.25%)
9: Bryant1k (Lithuania), $768.04 (1.4%)
10: loco602 (Netherlands), $548.60 (1%)
11: power07king (Canada), $548.60 (1%)
12: royamsterdam (Netherlands), $548.60 (1%)
13: santos22 (Hungary), $438.88 (0.8%)
14: Ialogen (Germany), $438.88 (0.8%)
15: Aleseed (Russian Federation), $438.88 (0.8%)
16: Spowi07 (Austria), $340.13 (0.619%)
17: DeJot89 (Germany), $340.13 (0.619%)
18: marcellomd (Germany), $340.13 (0.619%)
19: Csabesz3 (Hungary), $246.87 (0.45%)
20: sizzlinbetta (United States), $246.87 (0.45%)
21: concretum (Estonia), $246.87 (0.45%)
22: jonesymark (United Kingdom), $246.87 (0.45%)
23: ThEcLaiMEer (United Kingdom), $246.87 (0.45%)

The guy on the bottom of the list - ''the claimeer'' is an old buddy from the Tribeca days and I haven't seen him for years but I had the pleasure of sharing a table with him for a couple of hours tonight. A great, great player and a gentleman. 

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: It's just varience...............:

In Response to Re: It's just varience............... : Not the point ........ I do so bad on here is the point. If it's my game at fault, why is it so different ? If it's varience why is it so different if it's all random ? Varience shouldn't effect one site and not others. I haven't hardly won a hand in 20 ME BH's and not taken one single bounty on Sky, and yet I can regularly better 95%+ of the field elsewhere. Do the 6 out of 7 exits listed above look normal to you?
Posted by elsadog

Alan !!!!

Maybe I am totally missing the point............

But I've just sharkscoped you again, and you are nearly $7,000 up on sky over 833 games.

You've finished in the money 25% of the time and have a 52% R.O.I.

I'm sure you don't mind me quoting these stats, if you do, let me know and I'll delete them before anyone gets a chance to read, but if I had them, I'd be proud of them, and want to tell the world about it.

You've won 3 main events in the 18 months I've been on sky, I've not even had a top 3 finish (yet have a similar record on skope)

If the above is "you doing so bad on here" then you have extremely high standards !!!!

Maybe you're beaten before you start? When you reg for a game on sky, you expect the worst and it must influence your play?

Craching result btw, I'm jealous...........

djblacke04

In Response to Re: It's just varience...............:

In Response to Re: It's just varience............... : Alan !!!! Maybe I am totally missing the point............ But I've just sharkscoped you again, and you are nearly $7,000 up on sky over 833 games. You've finished in the money 25% of the time and have a 52% R.O.I. I'm sure you don't mind me quoting these stats, if you do, let me know and I'll delete them before anyone gets a chance to read, but if I had them, I'd be proud of them, and want to tell the world about it. You've won 3 main events in the 18 months I've been on sky, I've not even had a top 3 finish (yet have a similar record on skope) If the above is "you doing so bad on here" then you have extremely high standards !!!! Maybe you're beaten before you start? When you reg for a game on sky, you expect the worst and it must influence your play? Craching result btw, I'm jealous...........
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

hmmm... didnt you come second in the 220 deepstack dohhhhhh?

for 2 grand?

MAXALLY

In Response to Re: It's just varience...............:

A little bit more positive variance on the other side ........... PokerStars Tournament #407010533, No Limit Hold'em Buy-In: $20.00/$2.00 USD 1111 players Total Prize Pool: $54860.00 USD  Tournament started 2011/02/16 19:15:00 WET [2011/02/16 14:15:00 ET] Tournament finished 2011/02/17 4:47:48 WET [2011/02/16 23:47:48 ET] 1: HustlerKobe (Ukraine), $10094.39 (18.4%) 2: popdog (United Kingdom), $7323.81 (13.35%) 3: Prugi (Poland), $5486.00 (10%) 4: bundesmiro (Germany), $4114.50 (7.5%) 5: rudis80 (Sweden), $2880.15 (5.25%) 6: Giftpil$ (Germany), $2331.55 (4.25%) 7: arrotin9 (Switzerland), $1782.95 (3.25%) 8: UlisJoker (Russian Federation), $1234.35 (2.25%) 9: Bryant1k (Lithuania), $768.04 (1.4%) 10: loco602 (Netherlands), $548.60 (1%) 11: power07king (Canada), $548.60 (1%) 12: royamsterdam (Netherlands), $548.60 (1%) 13: santos22 (Hungary), $438.88 (0.8%) 14: Ialogen (Germany), $438.88 (0.8%) 15: Aleseed (Russian Federation), $438.88 (0.8%) 16: Spowi07 (Austria), $340.13 (0.619%) 17: DeJot89 (Germany), $340.13 (0.619%) 18: marcellomd (Germany), $340.13 (0.619%) 19: Csabesz3 (Hungary), $246.87 (0.45%) 20: sizzlinbetta (United States), $246.87 (0.45%) 21: concretum (Estonia), $246.87 (0.45%) 22: jonesymark (United Kingdom), $246.87 (0.45%) 23: ThEcLaiMEer (United Kingdom), $246.87 (0.45%) The guy on the bottom of the list - ''the claimeer'' is an old buddy from the Tribeca days and I haven't seen him for years but I had the pleasure of sharing a table with him for a couple of hours tonight. A great, great player and a gentleman. 
Posted by elsadog

Very nice result Alan.

Couple of quick questions.....

How many rebuys/add ons did you take?

How long did the tourney run for and likewise the FT and the H/U?

Well done again mate, nice to see!!

P.S. Can you lend me a fiver for a cup of coffee squire? )

Alan

DOHHHHHHH

I wrote that post ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ went downstairs to make a brew, and remembered that win you're talking about.

I honestly forgot about it whilst writing that post.

But does it class as an 8pm main event??

More a 50 runner sit n go imo

Altho I did have to run like mickjenn to get there, AK v AA and 99 v JJ aipf ..............

unknown_username

In Response to Re: It's just varience...............:

In Response to Re: It's just varience............... : Very nice result Alan. Couple of quick questions..... How many rebuys/add ons did you take? How long did the tourney run for and likewise the FT and the H/U? Well done again mate, nice to see!! P.S. Can you lend me a fiver for a cup of coffee squire? ) Alan
Posted by MAXALLY

The tournament was a maximum one re-buy and one add-on. I took the add-on but no re-buy. It ran from 7.15 (I think) until about 5.30' ish. I was talking to HuFlung on MSN at midnight with about 80 still left in and I said it would be a 2 am jobby. It wasn't !

Final table (9 man) was about 3 hours and very vigorous. I sharked the other guys on the FT and they all but one fish (not me btw) had ROI's to die for and 5 of them had 6 figure mtt profits. TheClaimer shows a $191,000 mtt profit !!!!! 

The fiver's in the post )

unknown_username

In Response to Re: It's just varience...............:

In Response to Re: It's just varience............... : Alan !!!! Maybe I am totally missing the point............ But I've just sharkscoped you again, and you are nearly $7,000 up on sky over 833 games. You've finished in the money 25% of the time and have a 52% R.O.I. I'm sure you don't mind me quoting these stats, if you do, let me know and I'll delete them before anyone gets a chance to read, but if I had them, I'd be proud of them, and want to tell the world about it. You've won 3 main events in the 18 months I've been on sky, I've not even had a top 3 finish (yet have a similar record on skope) If the above is "you doing so bad on here" then you have extremely high standards !!!! Maybe you're beaten before you start? When you reg for a game on sky, you expect the worst and it must influence your play? Craching result btw, I'm jealous...........
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

If, like me, you play only tournaments you have to expect high variations in results. It's not the varience I have a problem with it's the ''how''

By that I mean the manner of losing. Continually being out drawn by dominated hands is unusual in my book. The list I posted earlier isn't some made up fantasy of losses. It's fact, and that's only the last 10 days of hardly playing on here. I have hardly managed a cash in over 200 games on Sky and I haven't won a hand in the ME BH for months, I've stolen a few to keep myself in the game but whenever it's come to a showdown I've lost. It's not a whinge, I am genuinely confused and concerned because I've never seen anything like this let alone experienced it. That is why I started this thread and got so involved with the RNG threads. 

Mention was made of my game and yet I have felt I was playing good tournament poker, and that's why I started this mini comparison last week. I hear what you say about being beaten before I start and negativity can demolish anyone's game. But you will see from the examples above that after picking my spot I was all-in on every occasion preflop and had the dominant hand in every case. I'm not sure that negativity comes into pre-flop all-ins.

.......... and yes I probably do have high standards and my expectations are maybe a little too high. But that's not a negative trait.

YOUNG_GUN

wow nice result, just out of interest is that a 9 handed tournament? maybe you have a better game for it, although i can see by the hands you got beat by alot is unlucky here but it will turn, you cant run that bad forever

IRISHROVER

In Response to Re: It's just varience...............:

A little bit more positive variance on the other side ........... PokerStars Tournament #407010533, No Limit Hold'em Buy-In: $20.00/$2.00 USD 1111 players Total Prize Pool: $54860.00 USD  Tournament started 2011/02/16 19:15:00 WET [2011/02/16 14:15:00 ET] Tournament finished 2011/02/17 4:47:48 WET [2011/02/16 23:47:48 ET] 1: HustlerKobe (Ukraine), $10094.39 (18.4%) 2: popdog (United Kingdom), $7323.81 (13.35%) 3: Prugi (Poland), $5486.00 (10%) 4: bundesmiro (Germany), $4114.50 (7.5%) 5: rudis80 (Sweden), $2880.15 (5.25%) 6: Giftpil$ (Germany), $2331.55 (4.25%) 7: arrotin9 (Switzerland), $1782.95 (3.25%) 8: UlisJoker (Russian Federation), $1234.35 (2.25%) 9: Bryant1k (Lithuania), $768.04 (1.4%) 10: loco602 (Netherlands), $548.60 (1%) 11: power07king (Canada), $548.60 (1%) 12: royamsterdam (Netherlands), $548.60 (1%) 13: santos22 (Hungary), $438.88 (0.8%) 14: Ialogen (Germany), $438.88 (0.8%) 15: Aleseed (Russian Federation), $438.88 (0.8%) 16: Spowi07 (Austria), $340.13 (0.619%) 17: DeJot89 (Germany), $340.13 (0.619%) 18: marcellomd (Germany), $340.13 (0.619%) 19: Csabesz3 (Hungary), $246.87 (0.45%) 20: sizzlinbetta (United States), $246.87 (0.45%) 21: concretum (Estonia), $246.87 (0.45%) 22: jonesymark (United Kingdom), $246.87 (0.45%) 23: ThEcLaiMEer (United Kingdom), $246.87 (0.45%) The guy on the bottom of the list - ''the claimeer'' is an old buddy from the Tribeca days and I haven't seen him for years but I had the pleasure of sharing a table with him for a couple of hours tonight. A great, great player and a gentleman. 
Posted by elsadog

Top dog more like lol ,
excellent result ,
wd ALAN .

AMYBR

Been Back at a site that rhymes with sull Milt this last month.  Had huge winnings from MTT's.  Withdrew the bulk of it then I seemed to get doomswitched.  eg.  bubble of 1100 MTT. 3 bet AKs one call flop AK4.  Open for a bet , guy bluffs all in with Q2. T Q R Q.  Bit sick.  Every big pocket pair done by river set, with bets on each street.

Once again got me thinking.  I can probably put my worst beats over 6 years in a tidy basket that holds maybe 15.  I'm talking specials, your river 2 outers.  But over a 2 day online session i'd need a basket that held 50+.

Still agree with Alan there.  Its not the why but the HOW.

unknown_username

Thanks Denis

Young Gun - yes it was 9 man table.

I don't think the difference in 6 and 9 tables has anything to do with it to be honest. I have a half-decent short game and I have won about 40% of the final tables I have made even from being very short stacked. Last night's FT lasted hours and we were 4 handed forever. 

unknown_username

Tonight I thought I'd have a night off from Poker and so I played in the 15k BH on Sky.

I'm glad to say my record, of not winning a hand let alone a bounty, is safe and sound in this tournament. About the third hand my KQ made the str8 on the turn ......... unfortunately my opponent had flopped the full house (can't beat some early action hands) and I survived with a shorter stack than I started with. Over the next 20 minutes I had KQ twice more and A4 3 times on the button, all of which completely missed the board and whittled my stack down further. Eventually I went all-in to a 3 way pot with A7s, paired it on the flop, and was ahead until the river card gave my opponent what he needed for a str8 to take me out.

At least it wasn't AA getting cracked ...... I was getting bored with that one. 

Oh well! ......back to playing poker tomorrow.

unknown_username

In Response to Re: It's just variance...............:

 ELSADOG  .......  Did you have Fun.?
Posted by logdon

I did, I find Bingo so relaxing ;o) .................... and at least it was Jaegerbomb who benefitted most with his flopped F/H.

IRISHROVER

In Response to Re: It's just variance...............:

Tonight I thought I'd have a night off from Poker and so I played in the 15k BH on Sky. I'm glad to say my record, of not winning a hand let alone a bounty, is safe and sound in this tournament. About the third hand my KQ made the str8 on the turn ......... unfortunately my opponent had flopped the full house (can't beat some early action hands) and I survived with a shorter stack than I started with. Over the next 20 minutes I had KQ twice more and A4 3 times on the button, all of which completely missed the board and whittled my stack down further. Eventually I went all-in to a 3 way pot with A7s, paired it on the flop, and was ahead until the river card gave my opponent what he needed for a str8 to take me out. At least it wasn't AA getting cracked ...... I was getting bored with that one.  Oh well! ......back to playing poker tomorrow.
Posted by elsadog

I played on  stars yesterday afternoon & evening ,
plus a little this morning .
I must be completely honest and say
the amount of starting hands holding up  were extraordinary high .
I roughly saw or played in over 500 hands .
Played 3 games in total & cashed in all 3 .
Best result 48th from 1059 players .

unknown_username

In Response to Re: It's just variance...............:

In Response to Re: It's just variance............... : I played on  stars yesterday afternoon & evening , plus a little this morning . I must be completely honest and say the amount of starting hands holding up  were extraordinary high . I roughly saw or played in over 500 hands . Played 3 games in total & cashed in all 3 . Best result 48th from 1059 players .
Posted by IRISHROVER

Very nice results Denis.

For me the difference is the hands that win the pots. There are full-on action hands from time to time as you would expect but they are in the minority not the majority and the best hands hold-up far more often.

unknown_username

What mtt's did you play Denis. Did you try the S&G's?

unknown_username

Lost out in the 35k guaranteed on PS but cashed in the 40k.

I also had a good run for my money in the Sky Open and cashed in that too. 

But you don't fool me Sky, one swallow won't ever make a summer. )

unknown_username

Played 3 mtt's and crashed in them all. No bad beats, not even an amazing river, just lousy play and bad decisions on my part.

Ah well, always the next day.

unknown_username

I played a bit of cash while waiting for the Primo sat to start. It was very interesting -

First hand I played was this -

elsadog	Small blind		£0.10	£0.10	£26.20
sanyue	Big blind		£0.20	£0.30	£6.92
	Your hole cards	K A
5starginal	Raise		£0.40	£0.70	£16.32
Bess02	Fold
dopeboy	Call		£0.40	£1.10	£17.77
GREGHOGG	Fold
elsadog	Raise		£1.10	£2.20	£25.10
sanyue	Call		£1.00	£3.20	£5.92
5starginal	Call		£0.80	£4.00	£15.52
dopeboy	Call		£0.80	£4.80	£16.97
Flop
		2 10 J
elsadog	Bet		£2.40	£7.20	£22.70
sanyue	All-in		£5.92	£13.12	£0.00
5starginal	Fold
dopeboy	Call		£5.92	£19.04	£11.05
elsadog	Call		£3.52	£22.56	£19.18
Turn
		8
elsadog	Check
dopeboy	Check
River
		10
elsadog	Check
dopeboy	Check
elsadog	Show	K A
sanyue	Muck	3 A
dopeboy	Show	4 2
dopeboy	Win	Two Pairs, 10s and 2s	£21.43

Magnificent call pre-flop

Next hand was this -

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
5starginal	Big blind		£0.20	£0.20	£35.72
	Your hole cards	7 A
Bess02	Fold
dopeboy	Call		£0.20	£0.40	£34.10
Loose1	Call		£0.20	£0.60	£19.30
elsadog	Raise		£0.60	£1.20	£18.50
5starginal	Call		£0.40	£1.60	£35.32
dopeboy	Call		£0.40	£2.00	£33.70
Loose1	Call		£0.40	£2.40	£18.90
Flop
		5 3 A
5starginal	Check
dopeboy	Check
Loose1	Bet		£1.20	£3.60	£17.70
elsadog	Call		£1.20	£4.80	£17.30
5starginal	Call		£1.20	£6.00	£34.12
dopeboy	Fold
Turn
		9
5starginal	Bet		£3.00	£9.00	£31.12
Loose1	Call		£3.00	£12.00	£14.70
elsadog	Call		£3.00	£15.00	£14.30
River
		7
5starginal	Bet		£9.00	£24.00	£22.12
Loose1	All-in		£14.70	£38.70	£0.00
elsadog	All-in		£14.30	£53.00	£0.00
5starginal	Call		£5.70	£58.70	£16.42
5starginal	Show	9 A
Loose1	Show	A 3
elsadog	Show	7 A
5starginal	Win	Two Pairs, Aces and 9s	£56.90

All four aces are out and we all hit 2 pair - just LOL

Then the Primo sat started and the 2nd hand I played was this -

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
Pokerogue	Small blind		75.00	75.00	6552.50
elsadog	Big blind		150.00	225.00	1945.00
	Your hole cards	K K
mkgunner	Fold
scotty77	All-in		802.50	1027.50	0.00
Red_King	Call		802.50	1830.00	3462.50
Pokerogue	Fold
elsadog	All-in		1945.00	3775.00	0.00
Red_King	Call		1292.50	5067.50	2170.00
elsadog	Show	K K
scotty77	Show	4 6
Red_King	Show	Q K
Flop
		10 8 J
Turn
		7
River
		A
Red_King	Win	Straight to the Ace	5067.50

Scotty's shove is perfectly understandable .......... the outcome is perfectly predictable.

It's just varience .........................

AMYBR

Come on bud, its no fun if every hand isnt a cooler

unknown_username

In Response to Re: It's just variance...............:

Come on bud, its no fun if every hand isnt a cooler
Posted by AMYBR

Did you read them all .....had to add as I went along ....... it's good this bingo lark.

djblacke04

lets be honest ,ak doesnt win everytime.....(hand 1)

and hand 2( ace rag), you should nt have called the bet on the turn as you must have known you were behind..

and as for the KK,not a lot you could do...but you did call two all ins with out and Ace....flop was unlucky..

but these are three hands from many...

and i do notice that actually , Sky is your most profitable network that you play...

but anyway good luck at the tables..

unknown_username

In Response to Re: It's just variance...............:

lets be honest ,ak doesnt win everytime.....(hand 1) and hand 2( ace rag), you should nt have called the bet on the turn as you must have known you were behind.. and as for the KK,not a lot you could do...but you did call two all ins with out and Ace....flop was unlucky.. but these are three hands from many... and i do notice that actually , Sky is your most profitable network that you play... but anyway good luck at the tables..
Posted by djblacke04

Well first point is Sky isn't the most profitable network although it is/was profitable for me. I only use the elsadog name on sky so if your scoping it you're looking at someone else I'm afraid.

I have only played a handful of games on here recently and if you take into account the other hands I outlined earlier in this post that doesn't make it 3 hands from many.

As for calling I went into the game with every intention of seeing what outcomes there would be. The 6x raise called with trash that holds, the everyone has an Ace and hits 2 pair hand and the KK are typical of this site. I said it was interesting and it was.

BTW do you still send emails to people regarding the general assumption that online poker is fixed/rigged. I haven't had one copied to me for a while, or are you now a convert.

DOHHHHHHH

The only surprising thing aboout the above hands, is that Scotty missed.

unknown_username

In Response to Re: It's just variance...............:

The only surprising thing aboout the above hands, is that Scotty missed.
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

LOL yeah 2 hands on the run .....doomswitched??????

unknown_username

Tonight I thought I'd play the two ''main events''

The Primo and the PS $1.5 million )

In the Primo it went wrong from the off when my AQ was cracked and that was followed by a bit of a card famine. Blinds were whittling away at what remained of my stack and then along came 88. Now every bone in my body was screaming don't do it but it was getting to desperation stakes and so I shoved. The other guy had QQ - of course, he would wouldn't he.

In the PS million I got a decent run for my money and finished about 800th of 9500 for $500. Not life changing but at least I enjoyed it. It was also nice to see that I had no less than 12 PS pro's in the field behind me. Good job they don't play on here, finishing behind me on Sky would be harder than winning the million.

I think I'll hang around here a while longer and have the occasional game - I'm intrigued to see just how far this so called adverse variance can go - it's 6 months now and counting. Luckily PS are funding my experiment - my balance on there is looking rather healthy.

unknown_username

Well I've had a bit of time off from the big mtt's as my old brain is stuffed after a few 6 hour sessions.

Tonight I entered 3 mtts.

The BH on Sky - took two bounties (that's a huge improvement) but no cash.

The 8k on PS - crashed out mid-field

The 35k (made a 45k pool) on PS. - Finished 8th and was a little unlucky not to get a better finish. A standard race my QQ vs AK ........ and I lost. 

So although there are signs that the ''adverse varience'' on Sky is improving a little, I am miraculously unaffected on PS.

Strange thing this ''varience''

Norbit

I'm confused as to why you still play here..

I'm not saying stop or nout, just weird you do so well on PS (grats on some nice wins btw) but still play here with much smaller prizepools n then complain when you get a sick beat.

Why don't you just play PS and use the forum here. I do the same except im on paddy P...

If i remember rightly your posts back in the day on this forum were always nice n fun to read now it seems its all moans.

It's not all you tho, people moaning, posting they gunna leave sky only to play the next day is making this forum more dull by the day.

Sorry i had to rant on your thread, kinda agree more action flops on here, but i put that down to the field being weak and people rating their hands more than they should be.

I blame Hot 'O Meter!  lol

AMYBR

In Response to Re: It's just varience...............:

I'm confused as to why you still play here.. I'm not saying stop or nout, just weird you do so well on PS (grats on some nice wins btw) but still play here with much smaller prizepools n then complain when you get a sick beat. Why don't you just play PS and use the forum here. I do the same except im on paddy P... If i remember rightly your posts back in the day on this forum were always nice n fun to read now it seems its all moans. It's not all you tho, people moaning, posting they gunna leave sky only to play the next day is making this forum more dull by the day. Sorry i had to rant on your thread, kinda agree more action flops on here, but i put that down to the field being weak and people rating their hands more than they should be. I blame Hot 'O Meter!  lol
Posted by Norbit

Yeah I dont play here i just use the forum.  Suppose We have to give it credit for being a good group then