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CHELTENHAM 2011 - The Official Sky Poker F.A.B Thread.
Hi all, not sure if something similar has been done already but the greatest week of the sporting year is almost upon us and I know for sure that I absolutely can't wait, excitement is killing me!!!!!!!!!!!
so therefore wanted to stick up a thread about all things cheltenham so everyone can share their views, fancies and lays of the meeting.
happy punting everybody, heres hoping for a good 1!!!!!!
regards HailHail
so therefore wanted to stick up a thread about all things cheltenham so everyone can share their views, fancies and lays of the meeting.
happy punting everybody, heres hoping for a good 1!!!!!!
regards HailHail
Comments
when more posts are up (hopefully!) then i'm fine with going into more reasoning for each selection, but for now ill just list a brief list of my fancies to get things moving..........
not all races are covered, still to get a better look at some of the handicaps, but i'll list m ost of the portfolio and a NAP for each day
TUESDAY
SUPREME NOVICES: spirit son, recession proof e/w
ARKLE: medermit (NAP)
SPINAL RESEARCH HANDICAP: sunnyhillboy
CHAMPION HURDLE: peddlers cross
X COUNTRY: garde champetre (handicapper has loosened grip and he WILL go in again this year!!)
DN MARES HURDLE: quevega
WEDNESDAY
NH CHASE: alfa beat (NAP)
NEPTUNE NOVICES HARDLE: rock on ruby
RSA CHASE: wayward prince e/w
QM CHAMPION CHASE: somersby
CORAL CUP: aegean dawn (with a run), call the police
FRED WINTER: a media luz
CHAMPION BUMPER: allure of illusion, star neuville
THURS
JEWSON NOVICES CHASE: was gonna be hells bay, backed him in ante post multiples like he couldnt get beat but has been ruled out!!!!! : (
however, Every cloud, winner is WISHFULL THINKING (NAP)
PERTEMPS FINAL: barafundle, lush life e/w
WORLD HURDLE: big bucks (nothing surprising there but with some offering 11/10 it is a gift from the heavens!)
saver e/w mourad
FRIDAY:
TRIUMPH HURDLE: grandouet
ALBERT BARTLETT HURDLE: mossley e/w
GOLD CUP: with so many questions over so many, i might just sit back and enjoy it as a spectacle, though if the gound came up soft (good to soft) the PANDORAMA would be nap of the week so going to wait unrtil nrnb comes in everywhere and shop round for best price, anything 20's would be absolute steal if he got his conditions!
GRAND ANNUAL: tanks for that (plot horse from henderson yard to win race dedicated to his father, has run over hurdles to protect chase mark)
hope that made for non too boring reading, hope some selections you'll agree with, and some of course that you won't!!! interested to hear feedback and your selctions and any other thoughts you may have about the greatest show on earth!
Btw has anyone ever been to the cheltenham festival?
DON: 210 PREMIER DES MARAIS
NEW: 225 THE SAWYER
NEW 300: BIG FELLA THANKS
NEW 335: MADE IN TIME
I remember dawn run thought oneil gve it a great ride.Red rum i never ever backed it just my luck lol.
Ive only been to flat racing at doncaster,haydock,ripon and york loved it nothing better than live racing the atmosphere is second to none
Hailhail,
Pity you missed an entry into the Naps table.
I also thought Hells Bay was nailed on but as I took the bookie with days of theyear NRNB i have already got my money back.
Other NRNB already exercised
Walkon 10-1for Coral Cup
Moonlight Drive 25-1 for Alfred Barlett
Kempes 16-1 for Ryanair
Peddlers cross 5-1 for Champion
Finians Rainbow 9-2 for Arkle
Recession Proof 9-1 for Supreme Novices
Father Vaigret
Hailhail inspired me to do some more
Ocean Transit 66-1 for Mares Hurdle
Hey Big spender 16-1 Byrne Group
Local Hero 25-1 Triumph hurdle
French opera 12-1 for Grand annual
Presenting forever 14-1 for Spinal research
Divers 8-1 Centenary
God Bless em all
All done on best odds and NRNB
vaigret
yes i'm sorry i missed the naps table too! had a check up on it on friday evening when i set up this thread, good work!
since putting up my selections i have heard word on numerous forums for moonlight drive for the Albert Bartlett also, and just moments ago read that John Quinn is very keen on his chances, i know that hes been baced in to 16's accross the board, might have a nibble (but do tend to take such festival 'tips' with a slight pinch of salt!)
I think the tips for Moonlight Drive came from interview in Racing post with owner. Thats where i got it from
Father V
Supreme Novices
PT would have liked to have seen Day Of A Lifetime get a run Sunday, DR Cue Card will win Day of a Lifetime "a donkey", GC 9/10 winners rated 159 or higher likes Cue Card, Spirit Son to run a good race Sprinter Sacre needs flatter track. NF says Al Ferof was giving him a really great feel when he fell at Cheltenham and 16/1 is a big price. HB Cue Card. EM 8/38 Fav have won (thanks for that). RJ on phone says that Cue Card has the best chance of winning of any horse at the festival, banker of the meeting and that 9/4 is massive.
Arkle
NC Realth Dubh e/w, DR Questions Medermits attitude but likely winner, Captain Chris too slow and Starlucks in need of a run. GC Captain Chris e/w but no strong opinion (no bet). NF Finians Rainbow by far the best of the English horses. HB Medermit. EM Medermit.
CT on phone Medermit massive chance, 3rd time lucky? "I'll have Ruby in my sights at the last, don't worry about that" Medermit his nap of the week!
On Bensalem in Will Hill he says horse is looking forward but needs to sort out jumping.
Champion Hurdle
NC can't have Hurricane Fly likes Peddlers X. PT doesn't seem overly keen on Hurricane Fly while DR says you must wait till the day to back Hurricane due to his temperament, thinks Overturn massive price e/w. GC Dunguib suits stats and likes A Thousand Stars e/w. NF if theres cut in the ground he would love the ride on Peddlers X. HB Menorah.
RJ on phone says it's a very hot Champion but sees Hurricane Fly as biggest danger to Menorah, I get the impression he's very confident.
Neptune Investment Novices
NC First Lieutenant. DR Oscars Well will be bigger on the day 4/1 a "scandalous price". GC Rock on Ruby to place. HB First Lieutenant.
RSA Chase
PT Couldn't back Mikael D'Haguenet shaking head "no he won't" and he's riding it? DR Its wide open Quito De La Rock and Bostons Angel e/w. NF Aiteen Thirtythree. HB Bostons Angel.
NC taking on Big Zeb and Master Minded, likes Sommersby or Sizing Europe. DR Ground is the key to Big Zebs chance "Woolcombe Folly may as well be running around the beach than run in this thing!" GC can't have Sommersby in a million years. NF If Big Zeb gets his ground then Master Minded no chance likes Sizing Europe e/w. HB really pleased with Sizing Europe and hes hopeful 12/1 huge price. EM 26/29 winners in single figures and 10/12 1st/2nd in Arkle. DR "All we got to do is back Sizing Europe into single figures and he ticks all the boxes."
Bumper
NC Laid Allure of Illusion back in September at 12/1. PT not confident of any Mullins that have been out already, one or two still in yard but gave no details, he didn't seem confident to me. DR LoveofHigherLaw won't be entered Raise The Beat "right good horse" but Allure of Illusion WILL go off favourite! GC Knights Pass very good horse, don't rule out Persian Snow on better ground, Ericht better of Hendersons horses. NF Knights Pass very impressive and won under penalty he and Persian Snow stand out a mile. EM Fingal Bay.
RJ on phone Persian Snow did not like the soft ground, would not be confident unless the ground is right he needs it good.
Thats where I left it as it ran fairly late might be of some help, interesting night nonetheless. Hope this goes up as I already tried to post it and I've had to type it again. Must copy it this time!! If I get any more from mates that stayed on I'll let you know.
Don't shoot the messenger!
i no what happened ryan,i bet you got p.ssed
nice one goody, going to one tonight @ europa myself, matt chapman off ATR plus a few others so sould be some good info lurking about. got my 'weekender' ultimate guide newspaper in today, been getting it last 5 or 6 years super read but they've changed the format a bit this year so slightly disappointed but still a very worthwhile read nonetheless. they usually show trends for every race but have'nt this year for some reason? and as a trends backer i could do with the info in handy paper form for quick reference!! sure i can go online so alls not lost i guess.
like double, ive TFR with quevega and BB and medermit (9/2) in trebles, plus TFR with big zeb and a few others, but a decent e/w bet on wayward prince with the win part of bet very much a possibility.
ive hells bay (scrubbed) in yankees etc with menorah and medermit ante post like they couldnt get beat, however ive cooled slightly on menorah given 2 major trends; winner has had a run same calendar year and supreme novice winners have'nt won in somewhat 60 years??!! think ive got that right! so iver now cooled my interest in hobbs' charge considerably and im keeping the faith in a big winner for me last year in peddlers, delighted jason maguire gets to keep ride! last year n supremes i was a major non believer for dunguib and didnt fancy at all! it was oscar whisky i took to beat the jolly that day and although a staying on 4th to menorah, i expect more improvement from him and would be my idea of something e/w to peddlers.
i have a gut feeling the reigning champ binocular may finish unplaced.........
Nice info goodylad
I def think Menorah danger to my fancy Peddlers Cross
andybuck lovely 16-1 about Grand Crus, certain to be placed and could surprise Big Bucks.
Father V
I do fancy Thousand Stars for place, surprised still available at 50/1 now confirmed runner. Reckon he'll be in winners enclosure with his mate Hurricane Fly, who I think could be favourite come the day.
Tuesday could be a day for the favourites, Cue Card, Medermit & Quevega all have great chances.
I've also backed Aiteen Thirtythree in RSA (20/1) and Back in Focus in AB Hurdle (66/1) before their last run, so I've got some value if nothing else.
Really looking forward to it.
Oceans Transit odds seems high with current form, any idea why or just stayed under the radar? Anyway tanks for highlighting and I will be following the Father with than one.
Ocean Transit has two options for cheltenham, this race and Martin Pipe conditional. I'm going to have a bet whichever it goes in. The doubt seems to be whether it goes on a left handed track and small trqainers get overlooked sometimes. However the form reamains rock solid. Blue Nymph 11-1 and Cloudy Spirit 11-4 both come out of race and won easily and I mean easily.
I continue to look at horses who ran in the ludlow race and I wouldnt be surprised if the Kempton form works out well too.
Lets hope so
Father Vaigret
It ws interviewing a pro poker player (cant remember who), but he tipped Binocular in the Champs Hurdle and said by the time the race goes off it will be a lot shorter than it was then - its my only bets I,ve had for Cheltenham, but I managed to get 11/2 (£20) and 5/1 £10 - just checked on Sky and its now 3/1, but still beleive if your gonna back it to back it now as I think it will go in further
BINOCULAR
will NOT win the Champion Hurdle this year.
Sorry MP33
Father Vaigret
I wouldnt put you off that , I did it last year.
I like 4 or five before i would back Binocular.
Just cant see it winning, but i've been wrong before
Bye the way I have just entered Racing Post Select a stable , bit of fun around the festival if you like kind of thing. £20000 first prize
Father Vaigret
I have backed the following, in various different single and multiple bet types:
Champion Hurdle - Binocular (win), Khyber Kim (each way)
Can't beat course and distance form at Cheltenham and though some say last year's race wasn't the strongest there can be no arguments with how easily Binocular won. Khyber Kim is over-priced and I have him at 25/1 each way.
Champion Chase - Big Zeb (win), Sizing Europe (eaxh way)
Same rationale as the CH, I am a huge Master Minded fan but I think his time has just passed. Cant have Woolcombe Folly, Sizing Europe is over-priced as the Arkle winners have a very good record in this race and have 12/1 each way
RSA Chase - Time For Rupert (win)
My banker of the week. Has the course and distance form, was easily the best hurdler, which is a good pointer. IMO the biggest certainty for this race since Denman (watch him lose easily now!). Backed him at 7/1 ante post but will be going in again on the day.
World Hurdle - Big Bucks (win)
Cannot see the reigning champ getting beaten and odds against is an excellent price
Ryanair - Albertas Run (each way)
The reigning champ is being seriously overlooked, has course and distance form, will get his trip and ground for first time this season. Have backed at 14/1 ante post
Supreme Novices - Cue Card (win)
Backed at 5/1 ante post. Not much of a backable price now but the most likely winner. Has easily the best form of any in the race.
Jewsons Novice Chase - Mr Gardner (each way)
Backed him at 25/1 after an impressive comeback at Sandown behind Medermit. Jumped really well and could go well at still a decent price
Arkle - Medermit (win)
I have no concerns about his temperament, for me is the class horse in the race
Gold Cup - Denman (each way), Kauto Star (each way)
Backed both at decent each way prices. If Long Run finds a rhythm he will probably win but I have my doubts
Neptune Novices Hurdle - Oscars Well (win)
Was very impressed by his last win in Ireland and backed him straight afterwards
National Hunt Chase - Chicago Grey (win)
Has easily the best form on offer against Time For Rupert and Quinz, if he stays he should win
Triumph Hurdle - Sam Winner (each way)
Think you can forget the Chepstow run, has some very good form and still a good price
Mares Hurdle - Banjaxed Girl (each way)
Quevega will ber very hard to beat but BJ is the 2nd highest rated horse and is a good each way price
Pity you missed the Naps Table, from your selections and reasoning you would have been a strong fancy.
Good luck with all your bets, I just wish I had the money to lay Binocular to all you fans
Father Vaigret