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For clarification...
1. Wasn't meant as a complaint - I have only myself to "blame" for making a losing bet. It was a +EV bet given the promo - I just lucked out.
2. Certainly wasn't meant to encourage promotion abuse.
The simple background is I saw the promo here on this thread, thought I would have a punt on the darts, love watching it. At the time of the bet there were 3 matches left to play Wright v Chizzy was part way through, Norris v Webster and Taylor v Klassen to follow.
I called Wright and Klassen to win and I bet on Webster - just about typical for my sports betting - what made it worse was that action of Webster - terrible to watch him move around so much in his throwing action, even more so when you have money on him. A bit like betting on Furyk at golf. Just thought his experience would see him through v the "newbie".
At 8/11 to start, when things started to go a bit Pete Tong I thought I would check out the cash out price - get myself /> £5 and I'm good I thought. But the site told me I had no valid bet to cash out. No idea why.
With hindsight I could have just bet on the other guy when he was ahead (on another site) except of the few other sites I have started accounts with I cannot remember any login details.
Sky very kindly gave me my £10 back.
It's a Sky Vegas "no lose weekend" - so I thought what they hey "nothing to lose" and I didn't, booked the win a tenner up.
PS You can have Eleven for the price of P&P and The road for x2 the price of P&P (I'd want that one back)
PPS If not in the library then support your local charity shops/2nd hand book stall on a market.
book bankroll nittiness ftw
Green eggs and Ham
The Cat in the Hat
The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
regarding tilt at the tables, I think it's too black & white to go either way on this (stay on the tables or insta-quit). with money directly on the line, it seems almost suicidal to carry on playing if you're not thinking clearly, and worse, if you're thinking completely irrationally, but it could be the best way to actually remove the mental issue.
I'd always just suggest leaving your tables if you feel yourself making too many mistakes. this seems to have worked quite well for me over the years, but admittedly I never really had a significant mental leak. apart from the time I jammed 42o utg 100bb cos a reg said "lol" in the chatbox about one of my lines
some caveats:
+ i am only just starting to work with this solver, so i havent all the nuances / set up down. but this was a good excuse to attempt building a tree, and in a game i am unfamiliar wi
+ i have no idea about 6max 100bb ranges. i assumed you raise A8o+, A6s+ all broadway and 76s+
+ i had villain flat the following range: http://imgur.com/PryXmsR [the colours / 0.5 etc are weights. so i had him 3bet QQ 75% of the time and flat it .25 etc]
+ the solver only allows heads-up, so i ignored the villain in the blinds. for turn play it shouldnt make a great deal of difference.
+ i gave the solver 50%, 75% 100% of pot betsizes + an allin size on flop and turn. and only allowed it to pot river to save on tree size [and time]
so you should abosolutely[heads up, 3 way it may be different] cbet this flop . all of your range cbets at the equilibrium and a half-pot size is strongly favoured.
villain will flat 67.78% and fold the rest. villain doesnt raise at all v half-pot sizing
on the Js you check 41.3% of your range. so you absoulutely have a checking range if you are looking to be properly balanced
AcKc checks 44% of the time. your checking range is here: http://imgur.com/f9k3lHc
and you c/call v a bet.
basically your hand is indifferent to checking and betting. the EV's here are exactly the same. so in this case villains optimal strategy is making our hand indifferent between betting and checking. in reality most villains will actually play well against our bet. they should call all 7x and fold most A and K high without draws. and he shouldnt raise much v our barrel. this probably approaches the average players strat on this turn. but we can adjust and break indifferences when we have reads. for example:
so if villain is tight enough to fold 97o then we strictly prefer betting. if he is agressive enough to raise his turned draws and marginal hands then we should check.
btw this solver is called piosolver. they have a free version that will solve turn and river play with limited betsizes. but it is a fantastic tool if you want to get some idea of what optimal play villains range v your range looks like etc
Thoughts?
Are we folding at any point?
Late night snacks hmmmm. 1. Box of Pringles.
2. Wigan Burger (Steak Pie on a Barm)
3. Cheese on toast.
Aye, tha reet lad, big dollop of HP or Daddies.
The Barm cake MUST be buttered so as not to be dry.