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DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?

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  • grantorinograntorino
    edited December 2011
    mmm, we are only about ~65% favourite to win hand, and it doesnt guarantee we cash. If everyone limps next hand we should be 75% to cash
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  • SHANXTASHANXTA
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    Am i misreading this or are people actually considering folding AKs in an unopened unlimped pot from the small blind 4handed with 2BB?! Thats way way way too nitty to fold here. Jesus, if you're waiting for Aces Vs Kings in a DYM on the bubble, gl with that... Any tournament for that matter, at any stage this is a horrible fold. Funnily enough, playing in a live tournament a few months ago i raised UTG folded AKos when we were 13handed and 12 got paid. When a pro at the table heard id folded AK, he went ballistic. So Im not saying that Ak is never foldable, of course it is. But here its just truly awful to fold it. If youre not willing to gamble 2BB in a touney people will walk all over you. No one has ever won a tournament without gambling. So i get that in a dym you dont set out to win, but rather finish in the top 50% but long term thats just plain wrong. You might cash this DYM but if faced with this situation 100 times it defo the right thing to shove every time and accept that variance will do its work. End of.
    Posted by Fluxfoxy32
    facing this situation 100 times folding is 100% the correct thing to do
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  • Fluxfoxy32Fluxfoxy32
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : facing this situation 100 times folding is 100% the correct thing to do
    Posted by SHANXTA
    Go on explain how so ? Because it really really isnt...
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  • SHANXTASHANXTA
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : Go on explain how so ? Because it really really isnt...
    Posted by Fluxfoxy32
    the MTT example u give above is irrelevant, and on the face of it, looks a bad fold

    are you basing your DYM advice here on the 'pro' telling you your AK was a bad fold?

    MTT payout structures are normally top heavy, so playing just to min cash isnt normally the best tactice and u should be going FTW

    in a DYM you get paid exactly the same whether u finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd, have you looked at the other stacks?
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  • Fluxfoxy32Fluxfoxy32
    edited December 2011
    Im not basing it on what he said at all. That was just me accepting that Ak can be folded preflop and there are grey areas. I wasnt justifying anything on his notions of a good or bad fold.
    Right, you're 4/4 in a DYM and are about to be blinded out w/ 2BB left. IF you dont shove here, you'll be blinded out anyway and finish 4th eh ? Whereas if you shove, its definitely +EV. Youre only behind to pocket pairs and youll be approx 70% against two live cards. So over time, youll double much more than if you go broke here. And if you DU then youll obviously have a better chance of cashing. A shove is defo +EV against one opponent. Plus when you DU here youll have more fold equity for stealing blinds in later hands, which should be enough to get you into the money. 
    The real concern in this situation is that you are just going to let yourself be blinded out, waiting for aces or Kings ??Shove the Ak and give yourself a chance...
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  • Fluxfoxy32Fluxfoxy32
    edited December 2011
    *If Bell has 355 then it is a fold as hell be in the blind next hand and youll probably cash. (Didnt see that) But say Bell has 2 or 3K ; instashove.
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    folding is +EV
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  • Fluxfoxy32Fluxfoxy32
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    folding is +EV
    Posted by rancid
    With those stacks, yes but ("*If Bell has 355 then it is a fold as hell be in the blind next hand and youll probably cash. (Didnt see that) But say Bell has 2 or 3K ; instashove.") different stack sizes or in an MTT and it obviously is very +EV.
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : With those stacks, yes but (" *If Bell has 355 then it is a fold as hell be in the blind next hand and youll probably cash. (Didnt see that) But say Bell has 2 or 3K ; instashove.") different stack sizes or in an MTT and it obviously is very +EV.
    Posted by Fluxfoxy32
    yeah, but no but - that's not the question !
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  • Twenny_PTwenny_P
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : With those stacks, yes but (" *If Bell has 355 then it is a fold as hell be in the blind next hand and youll probably cash. (Didnt see that) But say Bell has 2 or 3K ; instashove.") different stack sizes or in an MTT and it obviously is very +EV.
    Posted by Fluxfoxy32
    I'm with you Flux...

    Even if Bell is only 355 and all in big blind next hand, what's to say they don't get pocket Aces dealt, and wins pot against anyone that bets in to it with junk that they had to play to try to beat Bell.. You are now on level (ish) stack with Bell and chasing to be dealt a hand!! Whilst you have Ace King, against just the BB, who could have absolutely nothing and fold, you have to Shove here!!

    TwennyP
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  • SHANXTASHANXTA
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : I'm with you Flux... Even if Bell is only 355 and all in big blind next hand, what's to say they don't get pocket Aces dealt, and wins pot against anyone that bets in to it with junk that they had to play to try to beat Bell.. You are now on level (ish) stack with Bell and chasing to be dealt a hand!! Whilst you have Ace King, against just the BB, who could have absolutely nothing and fold, you have to Shove here!! TwennyP
    Posted by Twenny_P[/QUOT

    painful 2 read

    try and read thru the whole thread and take in some of the free advice
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  • Twenny_PTwenny_P
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? :
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : I'm with you Flux... Even if Bell is only 355 and all in big blind next hand, what's to say they don't get pocket Aces dealt, and wins pot against anyone that bets in to it with junk that they had to play to try to beat Bell.. You are now on level (ish) stack with Bell and chasing to be dealt a hand!! Whilst you have Ace King, against just the BB, who could have absolutely nothing and fold, you have to Shove here!! TwennyP Posted by Twenny_P[/QUOT painful 2 read try and read thru the whole thread and take in some of the free advice
    Posted by SHANXTA
    Sorry, but I have read through the whole post..

    Explain what I say is wrong!!

    All fair saying 'do this' 'do that', 'you're wrong', but be clear and give reasoning...
    That is what helps people understand what is wrong.

    I stand by my thoughts (and clearly state the reasoning) I'm not saying it's 100% correct, but does it not make sense?

    To prove a point i will post a bubble spot play where I am in same position...
    Although I only have K Q (so even worse hand to hold)..
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    JME87 Small blind  300.00 300.00 1740.00
    oldtroll Big blind  600.00 900.00 4633.75
      Your hole cards
    • Q
    • K
    		     
    Twenny_P Raise  1800.00 2700.00 556.25
    Benson87 All-in  2370.00 5070.00 0.00
    JME87 Fold     
    oldtroll Fold     
    Twenny_P All-in  556.25 5626.25 0.00
    Benson87 Unmatched bet  13.75 5612.50 13.75
    Twenny_P Show
    • Q
    • K
    		   
    Benson87 Show
    • 10
    • A
    		   
    Flop
       
    • 6
    • 3
    • Q
    		     
    Turn
       
    • 8
    		     
    River
       
    • 8
    		     
    Twenny_P Win Two Pairs, Queens and 8s 5612.50  5612.50
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    Simply put, the big blind will go through the short stack next so therefore there's a greater chance bell will go out than you shoving AK and being called by any 2 and winning - there's also a chance the other ss will get busted

    combine that together = fold

    btw Tweeny that hand you posted - just shove
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  • Twenny_PTwenny_P
    edited December 2011
    Here you see JME is the short stake.
    Benson has been playing really tight for most of game and was chip leader until a couple hands previous.

    I have less than 4 big blinds and am in BB spot next...
    I would recon most of you would say fold in this hold, and ride round the blinds?

    Yes, I'm lucky anf the Q drops for me...

    But that's poker, a game of chance!! for all your numbers and numerics you can plan, it still needs the 5 cards on the board to drop in your favour...

    I am now chip leader and next hand dealt pocket 7's.. and a 7 drops on River..

    I take out Benson (who must be really sick now, after being ahead for nearly most of the game) the remaining 3 cash I make £4.50.. Lovely, thanks...

    Now show me what I did wrong?
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    Here you see JME is the short stake. Benson has been playing really tight for most of game and was chip leader until a couple hands previous. I have less than 4 big blinds and am in BB spot next... I would recon most of you would say fold in this hold, and ride round the blinds? Yes, I'm lucky anf the Q drops for me... But that's poker, a game of chance!! for all your numbers and numerics you can plan, it still needs the 5 cards on the board to drop in your favour... I am now chip leader and next hand dealt pocket 7's.. and a 7 drops on River.. I take out Benson (who must be really sick now, after being ahead for nearly most of the game) the remaining 3 cash I make £4.50.. Lovely, thanks... Now show me what I did wrong?
    Posted by Twenny_P
    Not relevent to the initial discussion, but is there any reason why you raised 1,800 and left 500 behind instead of just going all in?
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  • Twenny_PTwenny_P
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    Simply put, the big blind will go through the short stack next so therefore there's a greater chance bell will go out than you shoving AK and being called by any 2 - there's also a chance the other ss will get busted
    Posted by rancid
    I state again... Poker is a game of Chance!!

    You are relying on other factors being in your favour..

    why not Chance shoving A K and getting extra chips to back you up? when is BB is 50:50 to fold.

    Even if he calls 'any 2 cards' at this point he needs to be holding a pair to beat you. (most likely he won't have)

    You are then both reliant on the board dropping a card that matches either players needs. A K high beats any other 2 cards high!! your odds (in my reconing) are in your favour.

    Again, I say, there is no guarantee that short stake doesn't hit a hand and doubles up!!!


    And it tweNNy, not Tweeny!!!

    Ranpid... lol (sorry just kidding)
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  • Twenny_PTwenny_P
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : Not relevent to the initial discussion, but is there any reason why you raised 1,800 and left 500 behind instead of just going all in?
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    Yes, my laptop was playing up slow, and I was running out of time to correct my error in pressing 3bb instead of all in.. In that - i confess was an error. 
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  • SHANXTASHANXTA
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    Here you see JME is the short stake. Benson has been playing really tight for most of game and was chip leader until a couple hands previous. I have less than 4 big blinds and am in BB spot next... I would recon most of you would say fold in this hold, and ride round the blinds? Yes, I'm lucky anf the Q drops for me... But that's poker, a game of chance!! for all your numbers and numerics you can plan, it still needs the 5 cards on the board to drop in your favour... I am now chip leader and next hand dealt pocket 7's.. and a 7 drops on River.. I take out Benson (who must be really sick now, after being ahead for nearly most of the game) the remaining 3 cash I make £4.50.. Lovely, thanks... Now show me what I did wrong?
    Posted by Twenny_P
    the reason u learn the maths is because if you make the right decisons then over the course of time u will win moniez

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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : Yes, my laptop was playing up slow, and I was running out of time to correct my error in pressing 3bb instead of all in.. In that - i confess was an error. 
    Posted by Twenny_P
    I wouldn't say it was an error really, it's as good as a shove. Was just wondering if there was some reason for the raise instead of an all in.

    fwiw I also shove there.
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  • Twenny_PTwenny_P
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : the reason u learn the maths is because if you make the right decisons then over the course of time u will win moniez
    Posted by SHANXTA
    So no actual comback on my point!

    Yes, I cashed.. I'm making monies..

    Possibilities is still chance and relient on an outcome.

    98% chance to win is still a 2% chance to lose..
    SODs law - you lose... ha ha..
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : I state again... Poker is a game of Chance!! You are relying on other factors being in your favour.. why not Chance shoving A K and getting extra chips to back you up? when is BB is 50:50 to fold. Even if he calls 'any 2 cards' at this point he needs to be holding a pair to beat you. (most likely he won't have) You are then both reliant on the board dropping a card that matches either players needs. A K high beats any other 2 cards high!! your odds (in my reconing) are in your favour. Again, I say, there is no guarantee that short stake doesn't hit a hand and doubles up!!!
    Posted by Twenny_P
    There's a greater chance of finishing in the money if you fold this spot, you only need to finish in the top three -

    Do you think we are all crazy )



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  • Twenny_PTwenny_P
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : I wouldn't say it was an error really, it's as good as a shove. Was just wondering if there was some reason for the raise instead of an all in.
    fwiw I also shove there.
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    Thanks Dohhhhhhh,
    I appreciate your agreement.

    Cheers
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  • Twenny_PTwenny_P
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : There's a greater chance of finishing in the money if you fold this spot, you only need to finish in the top three - Do you think we are all crazy )
    Posted by rancid
    Is the chance to finish in the money greater if you win with A K and have more chips?

    Not saying your all mad, but there is a mix of people saying shove and some fold.

    Are the shove sayers Mad then?
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : Is the chance to finish in the money greater if you win with A K and have more chips? Not saying your all mad, but there is a mix of people saying shove and some fold. Are the shove sayers Mad then?
    Posted by Twenny_P
    No, there's a greater chance one of your oppo's will bust

    Don't blame me I just drive the bus !

    google "icmizer" and play around with it - may be surprised in what you learn

    try pokerstove aswell )
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  • JingleMaJingleMa
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : Is the chance to finish in the money greater if you win with A K and have more chips? Not saying your all mad, but there is a mix of people saying shove and some fold. Are the shove sayers Mad then?
    Posted by Twenny_P

    That's the point - there's a better chance of cashing if you fold.

    The people who said shove have either mis-read the stack sizes, or do not understand DYM theory on this point.

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  • Twenny_PTwenny_P
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : No, there's a greater chance your oppo will bust Don't blame me I just drive the bus !
    Posted by rancid
    If only life was like the film 'Sliding Doors'...

    Then we could see what happens in either play..

    LOL...
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : That's the point - there's a better chance of cashing if you fold. The people who said shove have either mis-read the stack sizes, or do not understand DYM theory on this point.
    Posted by JingleMa

    First glance it looks like the easiest shove in the world, right :S

    Maths say it's a fold though so..................Tweeny get on the love bus
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  • rancidrancid
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : If only life was like the film 'Sliding Doors'... Then we could see what happens in either play.. LOL...
    Posted by Twenny_P

    But you can, but you can :)
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  • JingleMaJingleMa
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : First glance it looks like the easiest shove in the world, right :S Maths say it's a fold though so..................Tweeny get on the love bus
    Posted by rancid

    Only if you don't play / understand DYM's...

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  • SHANXTASHANXTA
    edited December 2011
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold?:
    In Response to Re: DYM - AKs in SB w/2bbs Shove or Fold? : If only life was like the film 'Sliding Doors'... Then we could see what happens in either play.. LOL...
    Posted by Twenny_P
    but we do know wot happens! dyms have effectively been 'solved' and there is an optimal way to play almost every situation, and in this case folding will be alot more profitable than shoving 
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