1.5/3: Hero Call?

WHOAMI196

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call?:

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call? :I think he checks back an ace on the river. His pot bet to me meant he had no showdown value or a jack so... Text results appended to pokerstove.txt  191  games     0.000 secs    38,200  games/sec Board: 6s 7s 7d Jc Jd Dead:      equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    Hand 0:     53.403%      45.55%     07.85%                 87            15.00   { 9s8d } Hand 1:     46.597%      38.74%     07.85%                 74            15.00   { 55-44, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, K6s, QJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs6s, J8s+, J6s, T8s+, Ts6s, 98s, 96s-95s, 86s-85s, 63s+, 54s, 5s3s, 4s3s, K6o, QJo, J8o+, J6o, T8o+, 98o, 96o-95o, 86o-85o, 63o+, 54o } So its not bad. Just not the best play.
Posted by offshoot

I think you are trying to make out your call is ok when it is very unlikely it is. The range you have assigned the villain is a bit ambitious imo, assuming he calls 3-bets witl ALL above hands then 3-betting 89off is prob burning money IMHO... it just begs the question why 3-bet in the first place. I would clean up his range removing the 86o-85o, 96o-95o and alot of other hands that are on there that are probably over ambitious, even for a fish.

You need to be right at least 33% of the time to make this call an even-stevens, 0-EV call. Since i dont have stove ATM nor do i know this player so i could be wrong but i doubt you are beating over 33% of his overall range, actually i am almost 99% sure. Assuming this guy has just popped out of nowhere how can you even give him a range but just giving him every card in the deck is not the best way to go about it imo; this is never a call against a random.

rancid

as we have nine high, betting > calling imo

A or K high then calling /> betting

don't think we beat enough of oppo's bluff range to be calling with nine high, so problaly bet or c/r shove

saying all that, betting may just get called too much of the time - tough one !

pr1nnyraid

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call?:

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call? : , assuming he calls 3-bets witl ALL above hands then 3-betting 89off is prob burning money IMHO... it just begs the question why 3-bet in the first place. I would clean up his range removing the 86o-85o, 96o-95o and alot of other hands that are on there that are probably over ambitious, even for a fish. Posted by WHOAMI196

There was no 3bet pre..

still questionable iso from sb ev wise

WHOAMI196

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call?:

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call? : There was no 3bet pre.. still questionable iso from sb ev wise
Posted by pr1nnyraid

sorry my bad, well you never want to iso with 89off frm sb we want folds or passive fish, so yea an isolation attempt vs a cs would be very bad.

ref my post, i guess villain is verrry bad he prob has a v wide range and there's a possibility we are breaking even with this call, but its never a profitable call.

lJAMESl

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call?:

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call? : I think you are trying to make out your call is ok when it is very unlikely it is. The range you have assigned the villain is a bit ambitious imo, assuming he calls 3-bets witl ALL above hands then 3-betting 89off is prob burning money IMHO... it just begs the question why 3-bet in the first place. I would clean up his range removing the 86o-85o, 96o-95o and alot of other hands that are on there that are probably over ambitious, even for a fish. You need to be right at least 33% of the time to make this call an even-stevens, 0-EV call. Since i dont have stove ATM nor do i know this player so i could be wrong but i doubt you are beating over 33% of his overall range, actually i am almost 99% sure. Assuming this guy has just popped out of nowhere how can you even give him a range but just giving him every card in the deck is not the best way to go about it imo; this is never a call against a random.
Posted by WHOAMI196

The guy limp calls the button...

WHOAMI196

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call?:

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call? : The guy limp calls the button...
Posted by lJAMESl

yup my mistake

WHOAMI196

Fixed my post:P, all is the same regarding river hero call.

I think you are trying to make out your call is ok when it is very unlikely it is. The range you have assigned the villain is a bit ambitious imo, assuming he limp/calls frm button wide  above hands then isolating with 89off is prob burning money IMHO... I would clean up his range removing the 86o-85o, 96o-95o and alot of other hands that are on there that are probably over ambitious, even for a fish.

You need to be right at least 33% of the time to make this call an even-stevens, 0-EV call. Since i dont have stove ATM nor do i know this player so i could be wrong but i doubt you are beating over 33% of his overall range. Assuming this guy has just popped out of nowhere how can you even give him a range but just giving him every card in the deck is not the best way to go about it imo; this is never a call against a random fish.

offshoot

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call?:

Fixed my post:P,  all is the same regarding river hero call. I think you are trying to make out your call is ok when it is very unlikely it is. The range you have assigned the villain is a bit ambitious imo, assuming he limp/calls frm button wide  above hands then isolating with 89off is prob burning money IMHO... I would clean up his range removing the 86o-85o, 96o-95o and alot of other hands that are on there that are probably over ambitious, even for a fish. You need to be right at least 33% of the time to make this call an even-stevens, 0-EV call. Since i dont have stove ATM nor do i know this player so i could be wrong but i doubt you are beating over 33% of his overall range. Assuming this guy has just popped out of nowhere how can you even give him a range but just giving him every card in the deck is not the best way to go about it imo; this is never a call against a random fish.
Posted by WHOAMI196

Its not ambitious at all. I would bet the large majority of people who limp the button would have no problem doing it with 86o. Also i was pretty generous with regards to hands he could have that beat me aswell with stuff like Q6o and J5.

How can i even give him a range? Easy. What do you do, assume all unknowns can have any hand possible? Or assume this guy, like the hundreds of other weaker players, plays in a pretty similar way?

I mean do you think he limps the button with a tight range? How is that ever condusive with someone who is so willing tp play a hand he will limp in from the button just to see a flop? That alone indicates he will have a wide range. Players with tight ranges dont limp buttons.

There is no range you can give him limping here then check calling/potting the river  that i would ever agree gives me less than 33%.

Raising 89o from the sb is not something im gonna be doing often but at this particular moment on this table it definitely had good implied odds.

Also i think discussion of preflop ranges isnt that productive. Youve never 3bet 42s due to gameflow? Youve never folded JJ to a 3bet? Called T2s on the button? You dont think this guy is folding a large majority of his weak hands to a cbet?

WHOAMI196

it is ambitious. You have given this guy almost over half the deck that you think would be plausible for this guy to have, you should not be putting those ridic ranges on an unknown to prove that you made a correct decision.

So this guy limped/called pre, to then call, call... then bet pot on the river and you give him half the deck :S, he may have limped with the range you have given but realistically he would never call two streets nor bet pot on the river with them, well at least you have to assume this vs an unknown imo.

Obv no idea how bad this guy is but i have put two realistic ranges that suit his line....

Assuming he folds 54off pre, only calls with 54s, folds 44,33,55 on the turn and calls with all of his flush draws and made hands.... giving you a even money shot

Board: 7s 6s 7d Jc Jd

Dead:  

equity win tie      pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 34.314%   21.57% 12.75%            11        6.50   { 9s8d }

Hand 1: 65.686%   52.94% 12.75%            27        6.50   { QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 54s, J9o, T9o, T6o, 98o, 96o, 86o }

Now tightening his range just giving him those middle missed draws and made hands then you are making a big mistake...

Board: 7s 6s 7d Jc Jd

Dead:  

equity win tie      pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 14.000%   00.00% 14.00%             0        3.50   { 9s8d }

Hand 1: 86.000%   72.00% 14.00%            18        3.50   { QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, J9o, T9o, 98o }

I think the above are realistic ranges, on average you dont get called by what you have given him on the turn.

BTW you dont have implied odds with 89o, seriously!! i mean are you expecting 567?, or 922 and he shoves 88!, or what about k109 type flops etc... most of the time you will be getting reverse implied odds. If this guy is passive post flop then its obv ok, because does not matter what flops, you are expected to take it down there and then ...that btw is not implied odds.

offshoot

ok thats fair. How about you take out all the hands i generously said he would limp with when i doubt he would. QJs, QJo, JTs, QTs. Q9s.

Your assumption that a fish would not limp 45o, 68s, 96s, 53s is borderline ridiculous. I doubt he folds 55 on the turn. Possibly even 44. He would have 2 pair. THey dont fold when it says they have 2 pair.

I didnt give him half the deck ffs.I contained all the hands wihch i think he would limp the button with. I gave him all hands wihch had a draw that he would call 2 streets with. A hand with a 6, a jack or a counterfeited pair. Which is basically all the hands he can get to the river with with no showdown value.

offshoot

Your honestly saying he fold all 6's on the turn? Your honestly saying a fish would not limp 53s? 63s? Have you never played anyone bad before? Even if i give him a range which is far too tight removing all small offsuited connectors  i still get 40%

Board: 7s 6s 7d Jc Jd
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     41.364%      34.55%     06.82%                 38             7.50   { 9s8d }
Hand 1:     58.636%      51.82%     06.82%                 57             7.50   { 55-44, Ks9s, QJs, QsTs, Qs9s, J7s+, T8s+, T6s, 98s, 96s-95s, 86s-85s, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, QJo, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }

WHOAMI196

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call?:

ok thats fair. How about you take out all the hands i generously said he would limp with when i doubt he would. QJs, QJo, JTs, QTs. Q9s. Your assumption that a fish would not limp 45o, 68s, 96s, 53s is borderline ridiculous. I doubt he folds 55 on the turn. Possibly even 44. He would have 2 pair. THey dont fold when it says they have 2 pair. I didnt give him half the deck ffs.I contained all the hands wihch i think he would limp the button with. I gave him all hands wihch had a draw that he would call 2 streets with. A hand with a 6, a jack or a counterfeited pair. Which is basically all the hands he can get to the river with with no showdown value.
Posted by offshoot

Without going round in circles, all i am saying in essence this is not a correct call, i am a 50nl noob btw but still the math says this is a incorrect call despite my poker skill or how good i think i am.

I did not say villain would not limp 54off, but vs an unknown i would assume he would fold to a isolation play, would he call turn with 55, 44, 33, etc i would expect him to fold these, or villain might open these hands? who knows, but still its not realistic to give him these on the river esp when you make a 2/3 bet on the turn with another overcard to his possible pocket pairs or 6x combos.

offshoot

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call?:

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call? : Without going round in circles, all i am saying in essence this is not a correct call, i am a 50nl noob btw but still the math says this is a incorrect call despite my poker skill or how good i think i am. I did not say villain would not limp 54off, but vs an unknown i would assume he would fold to a isolation play, would he call turn with 55, 44, 33, etc i would expect him to fold these, or villain might open these hands? who knows, but still its not realistic to give him these on the river esp when you make a 2/3 bet on the turn with another overcard to his possible pocket pairs or 6x combos.
Posted by WHOAMI196

Ok we'll agree to disagree.

zing

you are way off on those ranges whoami

WHOAMI196

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call?:

Your honestly saying he fold all 6's on the turn? Your honestly saying a fish would not limp 53s? 63s? Have you never played anyone bad before? Even if i give him a range which is far too tight removing all small offsuited connectors  i still get 40% Board: 7s 6s 7d Jc Jd Dead:       equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied     Hand 0:     41.364%      34.55%     06.82%                 38             7.50   { 9s8d } Hand 1:     58.636%      51.82%     06.82%                 57             7.50   { 55-44, Ks9s, QJs, QsTs, Qs9s, J7s+, T8s+, T6s, 98s, 96s-95s, 86s-85s, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, QJo, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }
Posted by offshoot

Again this range is too large imo, when you assign a very large range to a villain the numbers are almost certainly false meaning that in reality you have no clue what he had, that you are simply over-guessing and so therefore there is no point using stove whatsoever,... you relied on you're gut feeling here, you were right in the sense that he was weak, good instincts BUT bad move, imo with realistic ranges this is only a break even call at best, shoving the wide range you have given is much better.

WHOAMI196

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call?:

you are way off on those ranges whoami
Posted by zing

well you obv know the villain

WHOAMI196

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call?:

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call? : Ok we'll agree to disagree.
Posted by offshoot

ok

WHOAMI196

was not going to type any more as this thread as it has run its course but there's One thing bugging me here, if this guy is not folding 55, 44, 33 and all the 6x and all the other sh it on the turn why the hell are you betting the turn and then checking the river, or even bluffing this guy at all, just gets silly when you look at it that way, anyway peace out im done.

offshoot

I have outs. Say i raise from the CO would you suggest i check flop or turn? Because the hand plays exactly the same. I beat all those hands on the river. I know a lot of people are suggesting betting or raising as better but in the moment its not crazy to check here now knowing you beat a decent number of hands at showdown.

RogueCell

At least one person posting in here has a very small willy.

GREGHOGG

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call?:

At least one person posting in here has a very small willy.
Posted by RogueCell

Is it you?

RogueCell

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call?:

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call? : Is it you?
Posted by GREGHOGG

I've never had a small willy

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call?:

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call? : I've never had a small willy
Posted by RogueCell

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/507/williecarson.jpg/

Wilhelm

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call?:

At least one person posting in here has a very small willy.
Posted by RogueCell

Mine's called small willy.

pryce6

Ah I misread the hh initially it's actually not that bad.

I'd still fold river though

hurst05

sick value bet on the river.

offshoot

In Response to Re: 1.5/3: Hero Call?:

sick value bet on the river.
Posted by hurst05

hah. That is what we should really be discussing. How i got owned by a 10hi vbet.

rancid

bump because it's pokertainment in the clinic at last !

Batkin88

I bet fold the river here 100% but as played I would call/shove here dependent on stack sizes as pretty face up his hand is bad now (meaning alot of pocket pairs and draws, obv most draws are ahead lol thats why shoving should be an option)