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i watch and play enough without opening a random table for an hour to see maybe a couple of 6% hitting to know that it doesnt happen as often as you think it does.
oh and theres no team sky poker so that fact is irrelavant, and the figure you had qouted for that was inaccurate as well.
ask yourself this, how much of that theoritical money is recycled time n time again, you have took no account for winnings or anything else, you worked out figures based on assumptions i would fold or lose every hand,
a bankroll is what you have to play with, i do adopt good management, and i certainly dont have the figures that you have tried to band about, people will say keep 30 or 40 buyins per level that you are playing to cover the ups and downs, not keep this fantasy figure because thats what you are going to play in blinds per month. i play well within my means thats why i play at the micros, i have no illusion of granduer of playing for vast sums like some high rollers.
on another note, holdem manager and other programs similar are not compatible with sky, so that arguements out the window.
i must also be a sky favourite, thats why i can win.
I fed these hands into an odds calculator online (for the sake of precision) - http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem - and got 68.64% -v- 27.15% with a draw probability of 4.21%. So the overall win probability for the upper hand was around 2.5-1. Losing it on the river card does wear thin after a while though.
Best wishes wherever you decide to move to.
SkyPoker is NOT rigged. They have no incentive to rig it, and it's regulated by an independant gaming comission.
Anyone claiming otherwise is acting on emotion and needs to either:
1) Take a step back, re-evaluate your claims based on statistical absolutes, and move on from there.
2) Take a break from poker, or learn a way to deal with tilt and/or people sucking out.
3) Realise that poker isn't for you, if you can't handle losing a few pots in a row.
Everyone gets lucky, and most likely, you're forgetting the times when you get lucky on someone else. Every time people get it in good, they expect to win every single time, and when you don't it's like the site has it in for you or some bs.
Every time you win a pot must be some form of running-good, because the times you lose, y'all go crazy about how unlucky you are. There needs to be balance.
- When someone setmines but doesn't flop a set vs your overpair, that's running good.
- When someone check-calls a bet with their gutshot, misses, then folds to your turn bet, that's running good.
- When you get in QQ pre for 100bb and the other guy only has AK, that's running good.
Why? Because the times when people get really lucky on us, hitting their sets, their 4outers, or when they just wake up with Aces or Kings, we think of it as a massive cooler set-up hand, looking up to the poker gods screaming "damn you all!".
You NEED to realise that there isn't just luck in the form of all-ins. There's the run-good you DON'T SEE. This is incredibly important to realise, because if you don't, you're always going to see yourself running bad, and getting unlucky. You will never take mental note of people playing bad and not getting lucky on you, only the times that they do. This perpetuates itself into negative thoughts and poor deductions about how well we're running.
If someone gets in AT vs my AK pre, the result is meaningless. We played it well, they played it bad, happy days.
If I told you I wanted to bet you all even money, that it will be scorching hot tomorrow, at 1/1, you'd all bet against me, right? You place the bet versus me, chuckling to yourself that I've given you rediculously good odds on what is an almost certain outcome in your favour.
Regardless of the weather tomorrow, you've made a good bet. You have gained value in the long run.
Outcomes.
1) It's sunny, you think you're a genius and I'm an idiot for placing money on it not being sunny, and you think nothing more of it. You got your money in ahead, you deserved to win the bet, end of story.
2) I hit my miracle, and it's sunny. You pay up, cursing how unlucky you are, thinking that the weather gods are probably rigged and you're not going to bet against me again because i'm such a massive luckbox, because you should have never lost that bet.
How rediculous does that sound?
That's how rediculous your claims sound when you say that online poker is rigged.
Good day to y'all.
*Disclaimer* - No, I'm not laying even money on it being anything other than sunny tomorrow. Please stop PM-ing me about it, and how you can't wait to take my money.
At the top, you explain how people will remain close-minded in their assumption that online poker is rigged in some way, and that some will just bury themselves into denial based on what they've seen and their inability to accurate coalate the information presented to them (suckouts for vs suckouts against etc).
And then in the 2nd half, you go on to say that you believe sites deal 'action flops' or 'action hands'?
As someone who plays a serious amount of volume, I can quite easily say this (most likely) isn't the case.
There are plenty of hands where it just goes bet-fold, or raise-fold or just walks to someone in the BB.
You're claiming that the site generates these 'action boards' to get more rake.
Which means it would only apply to cash games, right?
Again, I dare anyone to compared MTT+SNG all-ins or hands, to those in cash, and see a difference. Or heck, just sit there objectively and look at the hands being played, and come up with the conclusion that Sky are illegally trying to get more money out of their consumer base.
To believe that such 'action hands' exist, you have to believe;
1) That this only happens in cash games (as the result or speed of hands in MTTs and SnGs is immaterial to SkyPokers' income. Or, that they also balance it in tourneys too, for no reason whatsoever.
2) That the corparation that monitors SkyPoker is turning a blind eye to this illegal software being produced, and that they were undeserving of their 2012 operator of the year award.
3) That the RNG, isn't an RNG. Hands are scripted.
4) The risk of getting caught or found out, and their reputation as a huge company being tarnished, isn't as great as them extracting a little bit more in rake by using this corrupt software. The difference would be minimal, considering that all-ins take a while, rake is usually capped at a certain point, and every hand that goes post flop gets raked anyway.
5) Of course the river is going to change the board more than any other street (apart from the 3 cards on the flop, coming all at once obviously). It's the final street and adds more texture to the board as a result. The more cards on the board, the more textured it is going to be, and thus, the more it will connect with peoples hands. It's the same in Stud for example. 7th street is the card that typically, you'll see change the hands the most. Because there are 6 cards for it to interact with. The same applies to the river in hold'em. Likewise, equity after the river will always be 100% or 0%. on the turn or the flop they almost never are, which again, explains why the river is often such a big street.
As said, i've played a tonne of volume on Sky, and nothing about itseems 'action hands'-y to me. Just my opinion though.
I assume that most of the hands you've seen go to the river have been all-in or relatively large pots - At least the ones that you've considered to be noteworthy have been. Could it possibly be that people only make big pots with big hands or big draws and therefore the board can change the winner of the pot dramatically on turn and river?
How many hands have you noted that didn't go to showdown? How much attention have you paid to hands that were taken down pre-flop, on the flop, turn or river? I'm guessing those hands don't fit your theory so they are disregarded in favour of hands that do. It's called "Confirmation Bias".
I have written on this thread before, telling you that the biggest reason you're losing is likely to be that you're playing too tight. I and others have offered you genuine advice in this matter. They and I are winning players (them more so than I). We have no reason to mislead you and have no desire to upset you. I apologise if you think I've had unpleasant intentions towards you but I generally find it best to be brutally honest: I think you need to address your own play and not worry about the RNG or the software. Just from reading your posts on this thread, I can assure you that there is alot you do not understand as well as you think you do.
I've also previously offered my opinion on the idea that the RNG is designed to produce action hands: I do not think this is the case but it can certainly appear that way at times. The biggest reason for that, in my opinion, is that Sky's players are overwhelmingly tight. Therefore, whenever the money does go in, at showdown it is a surprise if they don't both have big hands. Sometimes those hands are monster hands like Quads, sometimes it's just flush-over-flush. There are very few players on this site who are willing or capable of making big bluffs or big calls for all their stack. Very few in the regular player-base that is. Of course there are plenty of inexperienced players who play fleetingly.
I hope you run better in future ZeroG.
Does anyone know if other sites publish their statistical analysis results?
I got 1outered the other day, <5%, do you hear me whining?
I lost JJ to AQ on J99. 0.7%. Action flop? No. The money went in pre-flop. It came running Q Q. But i suck it up knowing that it'll happen back to me in my favour at some point in the future.
READ THE POINTS UP THERE, and counter them. If your argument holds so much weight, how come I was able to quickly pick 5 gaping holes in your arguments, with no retort from either of you two.
This is all, as Borin said, confirmation bias. You're lacking the critical skills to act rationally, making purely emotional decisions with rhyme or reason, and it's not worth mine, or anyone elses time if you're not going to debate it, but instead just spout off conspiracy theories with no supporting evidence.
/thread
You have a bunch of people of dubious character (the people running the online rooms are thieves, some of whom have convicitions for crooked activities). If you don't think they are, you need only look as far as the scandals that have come public in the past to know that this is the truth. First we had the Absolute Poker scandal, where “an inside employee” it was revealed, was playing with access to other players’ hole cards. Somehow, when someone got too greedy, it got out. Of course, “management” attempted to cover it up, but the uproar on the boards like P5, etc. created too much heat and so they were forced to admit that it was going on. Not-so-cleverly, they blamed it on “a rogue employee.” Oh puleeze – that excuse hasn’t worked since the Nixon administration. In fact, Nixon tried that one with Watergate, and it didn’t work. And it didn’t work for Enron. It NEVER works. Anytime anything that looks like corporate fraud happens and they blame it on a “rogue employee”, we ALWAYS eventually find out that it was deeper than that. Then comes the “hush money” where they make like they are reimbursing people for the money that was stolen from them, while, at the same time, they are still doing it! But it’s not a rogue employee – it’s a systematic management scheme to defraud the players all along, and the instance you hear about is just the tip of the iceberg – the one instance where it got out. But don’t believe me, because the folks at ULTIMATE BET told us that management is doing it! Look at the more recent scandal… ULTIMATE BET.
Yes indeed, it happened again… employees of ULTIMATE BET rigging games and playing with knowledge of hole cards of other players, etc. When it comes out, same procedure – attempted cover up. When it gets out too far to cover up, they admit it, attempt to silence the situation with hush money to “affected players”, then they come up with the excuse.
The folks at UB knew that the “rogue employee” excuse doesn’t pass the laugh test, so they didn’t even attempt it!! Instead, they admitted that it was management systematically stealing from customers by rigging games, viewing hole cards, etc. But they said it wasn’t THEM … you ready .. it was PREVIOUS MANAGEMENT doing it . Oh puleeze.. gag me with a spoon.
So, given the facts that we have:
1) Customers who aren't going anywere
2) Thieves running the game
3) No downside even if they get caught at running a crooked game
4) A profit motive
Why does it surprise anyone that these games aren't rigged???
Moving forwards, myself (and i'm sure a few other forums regulars) would love to see you put this all to the test and monitor your allins.
Everytime you stack someone, double up, or get stacked, put it in a thread that's just dedicated to your progress. Watch them pile up, and then on reflection we can look back and deduce whether we're running bad, playing bad, both, or neither.
3yrs ago, when I was just starting out, i used to think FullTilt was rigged. Legit. I used to lose so much that I thought it was somehow all against me. A few hundred thousand hands, a bigger bankroll to deal with the swings, and some practice/learning/experience later, i realise what a fool i was to think that way. I just wasn't very good, and my small bankroll made me curse every time i got my money in, thinking nothing of it when i won, and going crazy when i lost.
I'm not saying anyone's a fool for thinking online poker is rigged, but it's important that once you take a step back and start reacted logically and not emotionaly, you realise how much better you'll be for it. GL guys.
Was just trying to say that bigger the company the more unlikely the are to jeopardise their image for the sake of a relatively miniscule part of their income. Plus, they seem to have a good rep too, based on past history.
The FTP fiasco was a stand-alone business, and the banks are just... well, corrupt fat cats, you know the drill.
Always good to have a reality check now and again, staying inquisitive and making sure we don't assume absolutes etc, cheers Percy. Yep, i did just call you Percy, even though ik that not you're real name. I've been up 24hrs ffs, my brain is like mush. gg Smit, off i trot to dream about binking the 2k TCOOP high roller.
#usingtwitterhashtagsoutsideoftwitterisrudeboi
#gohomesmityoudrunk
#andmemesarecooltoo
Night all, run good out there.
Just an idea for the sceptics out there.
Submit a Freedom of Information request to Sky for the independent test results?
Good luck
Or did you just get it in preflop AK v JJ, and are now whining about the irrelavent way in which order the cards came out in?