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IPL 2014 tips + stuff

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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2014

    Disappointing end from a punting POV.

    On India @ 6/1, WI @ 7/1 in separate semis and Badree ew @ 40/1, it's a hollow win with the latter.

    What a great competition though.  I can't wait for the IPL now.

    That enthusiasm rarely lasts the duration of the comp, but bring it on!  

    WD FISH for flicking the thread up!
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  • ff55hhff55hh
    edited April 2014
    Thought you might've gone all green on the outrights.

    Improtant thing is that we won money for doing nothing:)))))))

    Hope ITV4 show some cricket in beteween the adverts this year.
    Find it a bit tough to watch also since they're more brands than teams but it fills a void up to the UK 'summer'

    County season started Sunday, good to see Glamorgan being helped out by the rain against money bags Surrey.


    Any thoughts on the domestic season?????????

    Might start a thread on the betfair forum too

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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2014

    I don't think I've ever had a proper bet on anything other than the T20 competition in the English domestic scene.

    Very biased, but with Root having something to prove before regaining his England place, and Bairstow, Bresnan and Balance all unlikely to feature, along with the big signing of Kane Williamson I fancy YCCC to go close again.

    Sidebottom is still doing it, Plunkett and Brooks will be better again, yet probably still not good enough for England.

    Looked a couple of weeks ago and we were 11/2, although oddschecker currently only showing a price with betfair, presumably as there are games in running and we're 2nd faves @ 23/5 now.


    Not really a bet for me though, I'm a mug punter not a shrewd long term investor. cba waiting 6 months for a return.

    Root
    Lees
    Williamson
    Bairstow
    Ballance
    Gale
    Rashid
    Plunkett
    Bresnan / Patterson
    Brooks
    Sidebottom

    V optimistic if we can get that team out though! :D

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  • ff55hhff55hh
    edited April 2014
    OMG, have you seen what Glamorgan have done to Surrey today??????


    Your palatial mansions can't spare you from Michael Hogan you rich bast@rds

    muahahahahahahaaaaaaaa
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2014
    In Response to Re: T20 world cup tips + stuff:
    OMG, have you seen what Glamorgan have done to Surrey today?????? http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/o36838 Your palatial mansions can't spare you from Michael Hogan you rich bast@rds muahahahahahahaaaaaaaa
    Posted by ff55hh
    Emphatic run chase too, the wicket can't have been too bad!

    Great start! lol @ Surrey. Their 1-11 doesn't look great either, long season for them. 

    --------

    Seen you talk abit about betfair and trading recently fi55hh. 

    You ever 'play' in game on the cricket?

    I've got alot of time to fill this next couple of months as I wont be playing much poker at all for personal/medical reasons, and with it co-inciding with the IPL I wouldn't mind using some of the poker bankroll to give it a go, for fun and hopefully abit of profit. 

    Any idea where to start? What markets are best to trade in play etc? 

    Any links/resources that might help? 

    I've never done anything like it before. Have half heartedly made en effort to read up on the basics a long time ago but could never be bothered to commit to it. 

    No distractions now so would like to give it a shot, I'd only donate the money by outright 'punting' anyway. 


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  • ff55hhff55hh
    edited April 2014
    Regarding betting on cricket this was my 1st time. My usual sports for betting are horse racing and greyhounds.
    I think they're better mainly cos theres lots of opportunuties each day and you can spread your variance. Also I don't like those sports in any way so it allows me to make more calculated decisions I think.
    With cricket I can watch it without betting on it but I've built up  a wealth of knowledge over the years so I'll see if I can be proftiable over the domestic season. I actually found that the games I bet on in the T20 WC were less enjoyable as I was stressing over money rather than enjoying the spectacle. On a totally personal level I think it might be important to not gamble on all things as its not healthy (I quit sunday darts league to play more poker and now I regret it)


    Regarding trading - to do it properly you'd need some kind of software (gruss, geeks toy etc)
    Wether you used this would depend on the stakes you're dealing in. Kind of like if I used PT4 it may improve my success at poker but it would cost about a weeks profit per month so using it would be a leak for me. Same applies here.
    Same as poker I go purely on intuition. This is a mixture of spinelesness and conforming to a pre concieved strategy. I find it quite easy to luck up an all green and move on to the next race with slightly less than I could have got without bailing out. If i have the leverage I try to split the trade down the middle. If I dont I take a no lose on my individual selection. I can't stress enough that its not rocket science.

    Regarding 'which markets' - I found the liquidity to be poor on anything that wasn't happening immediately. Match odds and top bat (only the 2 currently batting) were going. This seems like an extension of the horses and dogs where they over correct on front runners / dogs with a vacant trap next to them. I'; be able to give a clearer answer in the weeks to come I think.

    Specifically regarding the IPL I think T20 is a game of momemtum above all else so your knowledge will be a huge asset here.

    Just overall BRM should be a great help to you already. This concept was entirely lost on me until I started poker in the autumn. Also from your tips I can see that your judgement is spot on in cricket. If the tourney was run again tomorrow you wouldn't be getting 40/1 badree, 6/1 India etc so if you just trust your judgement and don't get greedy it will be fine I'm sure
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  • ff55hhff55hh
    edited April 2014
    1 more thing would be that in terms of opportunuties (horse race or cricket match) I go for the scattergun approach of trying to get lots of small bets down. But I try to only put 1 bet in the same race/match (trades not withsanding)
    I don't like to end up in a situation where i'm contradicting myself plus whenever I lay 2 dogs for  a place in the same race I always walk into a forecast (((((((((((
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2014
    Cheers fish. 

    Think it'll be trial and error at first, will just play for pennies. 

    It drags on for like 8 months, so by the time of the final I should be qualified and ready to try and climb out of the big hole I've got myself in. 
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  • ff55hhff55hh
    edited April 2014
    Post up your thoughts, I'd be interested to hear them.
    Neutral venues should be interesting.
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2014
    Just re-started my betfair account ready for T20.

    Saw YCCC @ 7/4 to beat Somerset.

    Weather forecast looks fine, and think we got the beating of them on paper, although early season and toss likely to be important so not overly confident. Small stakes.

    Starting from scratch on there, looks like I've bet a couple of quid with 3 different people?

    IPL research begins tomorrow :)

    -----

    edit*

    ok, confused. Yorks lose the toss and are put in. 0-0 after 4 balls, and are now in to 5/4.

    How/why? :/
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  • ff55hhff55hh
    edited April 2014
    In Response to Re: T20 world cup tips + stuff:
    Weather forecast looks fine

    Starting from scratch on there, looks like I've bet a couple of quid with 3 different people? 

    Yorks lose the toss and are put in. 0-0 after 4 balls, and are now in to 5/4. How/why? :/
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH

    Most unusual...

    Reason for that is that only prices with over £2 available are displayed. You will be part-matched for under £2 at bigger prices from time to time.

    Once a market goes in-play the odds always shorten up. This is because when you place a bet you can either keep it or cancel it when it goes in play. those offering the top prices will cancel the bet and reasess leaving a few spivs to try and trade out using joke prices.


    Yorkshire looking good. Probably can't lose from here and will have some scoreboard pressure later today.
    Liquidity seems poor. Almost 120% book as i type. In contrast Mumbai v kolkata is @ 100.6% and its 2 days away. Maybe waiting 4 days for a result is putting people off.

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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2014
    Ugh liquidity is something I'd never even considered, just another thing to get my head around.

    I was having a play around with the golf yesterday, I had a pre tournament sweat on Rickie Fowler still running, so spent most of the round playing about with hypothetical bets, seeing how green I could get.

    Great fun!

    ---------------------

    Struggling with the IPL.

    Like Chennai and Punjab at the moment but it seems wide open.

    1 Virender Sehwag, 2 Manan Vohra, 3 Cheteshwar Pujara, 4 George Bailey, 5 David Miller, 6 Glenn Maxwell, 7 Wriddhiman Saha, 8 Rishi Dhawan, 9 Mitchell Johnson, 10 Murali Kartik, L Balaji

    Shaun Marsh/Thishara Perera on the side.

    Ever heard of winner.com? I'm always unsure with these unheard of bookies.

    They're going 150/1 Manan Vohra top tournament run scorer, which is double the next best price.
    (http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/top-batsman)

    Started the last campaign on fire as an unknown quantity.
     
    Think he's going to get the gig at the top of the order to start with, unless they prefer Marsh to Miller, which would be crackers (imo).

    Insane lower middle order firepower there, gun bowler in MJ, Murrali Kartik underrated too. Fancy them to be in the frame.

    *Edit, after re-looking at the Punjab squad, not as confident that he'll get a game. Looks a toss up between him and Mandeep Singh.

    Still going to take 150/1 at small stakes if that site is ok though and just hope he gets an early score to retain his place should he get the nod.


    Pre tournament fancies (not backed yet)

    Manan Vohra top tournament bat (ew 1/4 odds top 4) @ 150/1
    Punjab to make top 4 @ 11/10
    Chennai tournament winners @ 9/2 (They will make the top 4 gtd)

    George Bailey top Punjab runscorer @ 9/1 (bet365) ?

    Don't know if this is me contradicting myself by taking Bailey in this market and Vohra in the tournament market, but they both look like good prices to me.

    I guess he's 9/1 due to doubts about his selection, but as captain he should get first crack ahead of Marsh.

    Sehwag, Maxwell, Marsh, Miller all ahead of him in the betting, Miller will be held back as a finisher, Maxwell will float, often flatters to deceive with quick 20/30s, Marsh may not play enough, and Sehwag could be anything.

    9/1 looks ok to me for a guy who should get plenty of opportunity batting at 4, and with the firepower around him might take on the responsibility of holding things together whilst still being able to explode himself at the end as he proved in the epic Aus v India ODI series (in India) not so long ago.

    Just got rather excited after seeing 20/1 about Amit Mishra top RR bowler.

    Different Amit Mishra

    Not even a common name, I've never met anyone called Amit. :(

    Heads spinning after just an hour, so much to go at. Back for more later.
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  • ff55hhff55hh
    edited April 2014
    Intended to reply to this yesterday but an up + down day on the horses caused me to forget about cricket.

    Hoping for an IPL preview in the racing post tomorrow cos I've not even familiarised myself with the squads yet.

    George Bailey tip looks a  good shout.

    So far my only research is that the Sri Lankans will be here in a few weeks so that might affect some franchises.

    I'm off to lose in the pool league just now but when I return, humiliated, I'll have a crack at some pre-tournament stuff.

    In your opinion do you think the overseas players are most important or which team has a good crop of young homegrown players??
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2014
    In Response to Re: T20 world cup tips + stuff:
    Intended to reply to this yesterday but an up + down day on the horses caused me to forget about cricket. Hoping for an IPL preview in the racing post tomorrow cos I've not even familiarised myself with the squads yet. George Bailey tip looks a  good shout. So far my only research is that the Sri Lankans will be here in a few weeks so that might affect some franchises. I'm off to lose in the pool league just now but when I return, humiliated, I'll have a crack at some pre-tournament stuff. In your opinion do you think the overseas players are most important or which team has a good crop of young homegrown players??
    Posted by ff55hh
    I've been using the cricinfo "probable first 11s" as a starting point.
    http://www.espncricinfo.com/indian-premier-league-2014/content/story/718635.html

    Think at the top end of the table it's definitely the home grown players that make the difference.

    Chennais success over the years has been built around MS Dohni, R. Ashwin, R jadeja & Suresh Raina.

    That's why I fancy Punjab to do well this year, if the unpredictable Indian opening partnership of Sehwag and Vohra can fire it opens things up for their quality in the middle order. Bit of a punt as they're unpredictable but the price is decent enough to have a go. 

    Excited about the start tomorrow!

    Can only see 1 result, both teams stronger in bowling than batting (which imo will be a rarity looking at the squads), but KKR particularly weak with the bat, Mumbai too strong overall. 

    Putting them in a double with Dehli to win on Thursday. 

    Opposite here, 2 teams packed full of batting talent. 

    RCB will fancy they can chase literally anything, but Gayle had an unconvincing World T20 and their bowling again looks weak even with the addition of Mitchell Starc who wasn't great in the World Cup either. 

    1 M Vijay, 2 Quinton de Ko ck, 3 Kevin Pietersen, 4 Dinesh Karthik, 5 Ross Taylor

    That Dehli top 6 has real potential, hopefully my hero KP can find his feet from game 1, and Ross Taylor is a vastly under-rated batsman imo!

    Mumbai & Dehli double pays 2.66/1

    ----

    My IPL betting thread last time round was abit of a mess, loads of weird amounts being staked and no real system. Going to try and copy the pros by using a points system this time :D 

    Bets placed.

    Kohli top RCB batsman @ 11/8 3 points.

    Punjab to win the tournament @ 13/2 2 points. 

    George Bailey top Punjab batsman @ 15/2 1 point.  (9/1 has goneeeeeeeeeeeeeeee)

    ------------------

    Mumbai & Dehli win double @ 2.66/1 1 point. 


    cba opening an account on winner.com, so not done the Vohra bet. 66/1 elsewhere is rubbish. Prob going to be player of the tournament now.

    Bring on Matt Smith, Ravi Shashtri & strategic timeouts! wiiiiiiiiiiiii

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLhC74QJQ_c
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  • ff55hhff55hh
    edited April 2014
    Calcutta v Bombay

    Only Ghambir is left handed in the top order. (Shakib may play but they have better spinners and better batters than him)

    Ojha top bowler - 11/4 - 1pt

    Ultra dependable bowler, takes over a wicket a game, economy under 7.
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2014
    Gotta be impressed with that KKR bowling attack. Relative to others in the tournament, at least.

    Just don't see them getting enough runs throughout the comp.....
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  • ff55hhff55hh
    edited April 2014
    Picked Shakib of course.

    Spot on about KKR dohhhhh
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  • ff55hhff55hh
    edited April 2014
    drop in pitch, courtesy of Durham CCC
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2014
    Having a go at 'trading' this!

    I've no idea what I'm doing hahaha.

    Only started with a fiver on Mumbai pre toss. Moved it over to KKR after 4 overs, added more after 8.

    Really could do with Kallis out soon so KKR can do some damage before Malinga comes back for his last 3 at the end.

    It's good fun!
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2014
    Tactical Kallis drop obv.

    Malinga knows the game.

    wiiiii what does DOH KNOW! haha. G'wan JACK!
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2014
    Ignored my instincts and went into gamboooooool mode that with so many wickets left KKR could get the slinger away.

    fmlllll

    No choice but to leave it till half time now that he's bowled out.

    Harsh lesson learnt :(

    Big last over plz.
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2014
    Can get a £8.05 freeroll at the break on KKR if I even it up, sounds like a good freeroll to me off a £5 investment.

    Looking at twitter though the guys on there have a greater potential ROI gtd,

    must do better!

    Expect the Mumbai innings to go the opposite way to KKR, good start, stutter between 6-14 and a close finish.

    Will gambooooool and try to have lots of big ROI gtd after 16.

    Do you coach this? hahaha.
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2014
    ughhhhh had a mare here, no idea where to go with it.

    I guess hang on and hope the 2 innings take a similar pattern?

    Left myself no outs rly.

    Still at least I cant lose.
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2014
    Aight I've ballsed this up long ago, but why are they batting Narine out with 4 overs left when they need 18 an over?

    aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

    Reminds me of England v SA in the WT20.

    Ended up -£1.77. wow!
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  • ff55hhff55hh
    edited April 2014
    Extremely depressed today, was within touching distance of being rolled for a £4 per point staking system.

    Missed value on a tip i received last night compounded by a few place lays going wrong.
    Felt as if I was betting for the sake of it today which is annoying.

    Gonna try and get in 15+ bets on the 2 live greyhound cards (1pt stake only)

    Had to go out and missed some of the cricket. Dropped another point on that as Ohja went wicketless.
     *********************************

    FWIW Dohhhh I always take the freeroll. Mainly because I'm pretty spineless. That being said its easier to get fidgety in a 3 hour cricket game compared to horses or dogs.

    Do you mean theres a twitter page doing cricket tips???
    I've not got an account but will make one if theres stuff like that going about.
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2014
    In Response to Re: IPL 2014 tips + stuff:
    Extremely depressed today, was within touching distance of being rolled for a £4 per point staking system. Missed value on a tip i received last night compounded by a few place lays going wrong. Felt as if I was betting for the sake of it today which is annoying. Gonna try and get in 15+ bets on the 2 live greyhound cards (1pt stake only) Had to go out and missed some of the cricket. Dropped another point on that as Ohja went wicketless.  ********************************* FWIW Dohhhh I always take the freeroll. Mainly because I'm pretty spineless. That being said its easier to get fidgety in a 3 hour cricket game compared to horses or dogs. Do you mean theres a twitter page doing cricket tips??? I've not got an account but will make one if theres stuff like that going about.
    Posted by ff55hh
    Yeh there are out and out tipsters on there but also traders who put some 'books' up that look insane (big numbers).

    It's a great tool for stuff like this, I've made a mess of mine by following 100s of plonkers from stuff like big brother so amongst the interesting stuff I get spammed with rubbish.

    Appears easier to make a new 1 than to clean mine up, so going to do that today. I'll pm you a list of good people to follow later.

    ------

    Having another go at trading the game today, starting point is £6.38 on Dehli to win @ 9/5

    Hoping to learn lessons from yesterday and make it pay today!!!
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  • ff55hhff55hh
    edited April 2014
    Just a watching brief for me today. Daily hunt for the racing post took over 90 minutes and tired me out.
    Focusing only on hounds later. Quality insight on 212 last night, "The thing is you never know with dogs"

    Not sure if I love Shonali Nagrani or Isa Guha the most.

    Edit** - like the daredevils spin combo
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  • ff55hhff55hh
    edited April 2014
    On sunrisers here in running.

    Any interest in the snooker world champs dohhhhh?
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  • ff55hhff55hh
    edited April 2014
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  • ff55hhff55hh
    edited April 2014
    constant ad breaks are tilting me


    Edit****

    ffs

    was going for a 1pt on rahane top scorer @ 4.0. Put it on watson by mistake. Can't bail out yet. Watch Steyn get him LBW 1st ball
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