Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16

jordz16

I thought I would write up my tips for next season to hopefully give me a bit of a sweat. I'll add each bet i place throughout the season but most of the bets i make will be done early on in the season...

First of all League 2

This was the easiest one for me, im never backing pompey at 4/1 and i really dont like the look of orient or oxford, both have managers who are very unproven and their squads are nothing special, so Luton town at 12/1 is my standout bet, they have a manager with a very good record in the lower leagues and they have made plenty of very impressive signings, (especially Dan Potts from West Ham and Josh Mcqouid from Bournemouth) I fully expect them to start the season as clear 2nd favs.

League 1

This was definitely the hardest league, so i have taken a punt on an outsider, Sheff U have been favourites for the last 2 years and failed spectacularly each time, and i dont think the new manager will change that.. Wigan, Millwall and Peterborough all have inexperienced managers and seem to be clubs on a downswing.. I have gone with Gillingham at 40/1 they have a manager in Justin Edinburgh who has worked his way up the leagues and been a success at every club, they have an above average squad for the league and made a couple of good signings in Max Ehmer and Rory Donnelly, and as far as im aware they have the finances to add to that should they need to.

Championship

Another stand out league for me as I fancied Wolves straight from the end of last season, i got them at 20/1 very early and i think you can still get 14/1 now which i think there is value in... In Afobe and Dicko they have 2 pacy young strikers easily capable of scoring 20+ goals each, they have bought in 2 young exciting midfielders in Conor Coady and Jed Wallace but still have experienced campainers in Stearman, Mcdonald, Henry and Edwards. Im against Derby due to an inexperienced manager and the fact they should of gone up for the past 2 years and havent, Middlesborough and Hull just wont score enough goals and Brentford, Burnley and QPR are clubs going through a transitional period at the minute...

Premier league

Chelsea, best team, best manager.

I have backed them all as singles and also done a small 20,000/1 each way acca

Il add some top scorer, relegation and play off bets when i finalise my predictions

Full list of my Antepost bets as follows

Luton 12/1        £20 EW

Gillingham 40/1  £15 EW

Wolves  20/1     £20 EW

Chelsea 7/4       £30

Reading top 6  5/1  £20

Middlesborough top 6  6/4   £100

Everton, Reading, Gillingham, Wycombe all top half   16/1   £20

Swansea, Huddersfield, Chesterfield, Yeovil all bottom half finish   10/1  £25

Kodjia championship top scorer,  50/1    £15 EW

Hearts w/o Celtic   6/1   £50

Osman Sow scottish top scorer  28/1    £10 EW

Scott Sinclair top Villa scorer 25/1   £20

Hazard top Chelsea scorer   5/1    £20

Lens top Sunderland scorer  9/1   £20

Lukaku, Rooney, Kane, Deeney, Sakho all t/s for their clubs, 10/1    £15

Yaya toure top scorer 100/1   £5 EW 

Braintree town top 5 finish 12/1 £10

Real Mardrid to win Champions League  11/2  £25

Schalke to win the Europa League  25/1  £25

Staked   £550         returns ?????

goldnballz

Nice write-up, I've also stuck a few quid on your selections. Good luck

splashies

Nice post and gl, will post my picks in a couple of weeks.

Ice_Tiger

Have made a tidy profit from season long football bets for quite a few years now.

Think this season is a bit trickier but still expect to make a profit.

jordz16

Thank you to both, feel free to post any tips or information that you have.. il update again when the top goalscorer markets open and the season gets a bit nearer...

One extra bet i have made is Reading for a top 6 finish, at 5/1 the price is decent, Steve Clarke is a good manager and they very much underacheived last year, they had a solid/average championship squad and have so far bought in Quinn and Mcshane from Hull, both have lots of premier league and international experience and are aged under 30 so they look very good signings. If they can just sign a striker who is proven at that level who can get them 20 goals then i might back them for the title at big odds.

jordz16

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16:

Have made a tidy profit from season long football bets for quite a few years now. Think this season is a bit trickier but still expect to make a profit.
Posted by Ice_Tiger

i did follow your bets for a while last season, i dont really do much betting during the season as the edges are so small, but glad to see you can still make a profit. if you can use any of your statistics to find some good antepost betting angles feel free to post them

Ice_Tiger

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16:

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16 : i did follow your bets for a while last season, i dont really do much betting during the season as the edges are so small, but glad to see you can still make a profit. if you can use any of your statistics to find some good antepost betting angles feel free to post them
Posted by jordz16

My bets through the season are statistics based (Southend over 20 consecutive home matches under 2.5 goals etc) where there is a lot of money to be made particularly in the second half of the season.

My season long bets are similar to yours, I guess, based upon a bit of logic & a bit of a hunch.

I am happy to bet on big short priced odds. Last season, I had big bets on Reading (5/4) & Brighton (10/11) to finish in the bottom half because I saw them as sides on a downswing a year ago. Sadly Forest for Top Half (8/11) let me down with a late season collapse.

I also had five out of six winners for Top Six (Div Two - Top Seven) in singles and multiples - Norwich, Bristol City, Preston, Bury & Burton. Just Derby let me down. most prices were around 5/4.

Haven't done my research for next season yet so need to get on it soon.

Ice_Tiger

Before I go for my main bets, I have had an outside feeling for Sheffield Wednesday but had been waiting for a sign.

They are a big club but haven't spent like a big club for many years. They have a new owner who has promised promotion within two seasons. However, actions speak louder than words. Actions have started this week. After a couple of standard signings, Wednesday suddenly shell out £2m for Portugese winger Marco Matias, bid £4m for Daryl Murphy then sign Lopez from Celta Viga on a season long loan.

They might not be ready to win it but I snapped up the 28/1 on 888 and 25/1 on SKY Bet each way and I expect their price to be cut further as new expensive signings arrive. Just watched the press conference with their new manager, Carlos Carvalhal and he seems an impressive guy.

Could be the new Watford?

jordz16

Any championship club who are prepared to spend 4 million on a player have to have their eyes on promotion... my only doubt is that their current squad is a long way off being able to challenge for the title but if they manage to get all the players they have been linked with then 28/1 is definitely good value.

Ice_Tiger

Think it needs quite an overhaul but they had the third best defence in the division last season so they only have the midfield & strikers to address.

I think the margins between top teams and teams as low as 17th or 18th is quite fine in this division. Bournemouth & Watford went from mid table to promotion in one season so it can be done. A lot depends on how well the relegated sides perform because most seasons, they tie up one or two of the top three places. Last season only Norwich of the relegated sides challenged.

Obviously, they need to make the signings then they need to fit in. just think at the prices available, it represented value. 

Ice_Tiger

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16:

I have made one bet for today... i dont normally bet much on individual games but being an avid west ham fan i feel i have a bit of an edge with this one.. Lusitans v West Ham Josh Cullen 9/2 anytime goalscorer... hes making his full debut and will be eager to make an impact, he has scored quite a few goals for the development side and had a great chance to score in the first leg after coming off the bench, we took it very easy in the first leg and should of won by at least 5/6 goals, and with an extra weeks training against a team who have nothing to play for id expect us to get at least 5 this evening.
Posted by jordz16

Can't comment on the value of this bet but the bookies are pretty tight on goalscorer bets so I generally keep clear.

jordz16

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16:

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16 : Can't comment on the value of this bet but the bookies are pretty tight on goalscorer bets so I generally keep clear.
Posted by Ice_Tiger

yeah same here its rare i would make a bet but with it being a debut and with the bookies not being too sure how to price up the game i think it was ok, some sites were offering 4/6 on it, and 10 mins before kick off  the shortest odds was 6/4.. the joint fav scores before kick off were 4-0 and 5-0 so with that amount of goals expected then 9/4 for a goalscoring midfielder to score at anytime is pretty good.

jordz16

Added an extra bet this year.

Everton

Reading

Gillingham

Wycombe 

all to finish in the top half of their leagues. its a 16/1 accumalator which is a bit of a punt but i do fancy them all the at least be challenging for a top 6 spot.

Ice_Tiger

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16:

Added an extra bet this year. Everton Reading Gillingham Wycombe  all to finish in the top half of their leagues. its a 16/1 accumalator which is a bit of a punt but i do fancy them all the at least be challenging for a top 6 spot.
Posted by jordz16

Need to do my homework on this one.

Off the top of my head, Wycombe looks sound. Everton do better without European distractions. Reading were very poor last season & lucky not to be relegated. They have bought well but top half is a punt. Gillingham have a talented manager & could have a good season.

jordz16

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16:

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16 : Need to do my homework on this one. Off the top of my head, Wycombe looks sound. Everton do better without European distractions. Reading were very poor last season & lucky not to be relegated. They have bought well but top half is a punt. Gillingham have a talented manager & could have a good season.
Posted by Ice_Tiger

yeah that was pretty much my thinking on all 4, reading have definitely bought well, i think they will be clear of relegation, normally 15th and 5th can be seperated by as little as 10 points so it is definitely a bit of a lottery for top half places in that league

jordz16

Following on from my last bet i decided to pick 4 teams all to finish in the bottom half of their respected leagues

Swansea - a manager i do like, so i nearly didnt pick them but from a statistical point of view its a good bet... If you look at statsbomb they massively over acheived last year and given the amount of shots they had, and shots they conceded they should have been lower mid table, so im hoping that balances out this year

Huddersfield - they just strike me as a typical bottom half club in the championship, and they sold, imo, their best player in Conor Coady

Chesterfield - Dean Saunders is a very unconvincing manager, and even though they have kept most of their squad who finished 6th last year i feel this will be a year of transition as they dont look like they will be spending money and i dont fancy them to score too many goals either

Yeovil - they just seem to be in freefall, they are struggling to get a squad of players together and i think they will be happy with anything except relegation

for the acca its 10/1 

Ice_Tiger

I have bet more on Sheffield Wednesday.

I took the 28/1 & 25/1 last week and have added more at 25/1 & 22/1. They have already made seven decent signings with rumours of two more good signings in the next 24 hours. Certainly seems like great each way value.

BARBIE59

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16:

Before I go for my main bets, I have had an outside feeling for Sheffield Wednesday but had been waiting for a sign. They are a big club but haven't spent like a big club for many years. They have a new owner who has promised promotion within two seasons. However, actions speak louder than words. Actions have started this week. After a couple of standard signings, Wednesday suddenly shell out £2m for Portugese winger Marco Matias, bid £4m for Daryl Murphy then sign Lopez from Celta Viga on a season long loan. They might not be ready to win it but I snapped up the 28/1 on 888 and 25/1 on SKY Bet each way and I expect their price to be cut further as new expensive signings arrive. Just watched the press conference with their new manager, Carlos Carvalhal and he seems an impressive guy. Could be the new Watford?
Posted by Ice_Tiger

Who do u support again ?? Shef wed by any chance lol?

Ice_Tiger

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16:

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16 : Who do u support again ?? Shef wed by any chance lol?
Posted by BARBIE59

Never let any personal issues influence my betting.

Haven't bet a penny on Sheffield Wednesday for promotion in the last three seasons.

They were 66/1 to win last season and that was skinny IMO. A month ago they were 50/1. A week ago, they were 28/1. Now they are 22/1 and with two new signing expected to be announced this week I can see the price dipping under 20/1 next week.

See those prices as good value.

BARBIE59

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16:

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16 : Never let any personal issues influence my betting. Haven't bet a penny on Sheffield Wednesday for promotion in the last three seasons. They were 66/1 to win last season and that was skinny IMO. A month ago they were 50/1. A week ago, they were 28/1. Now they are 22/1 and with two new signing expected to be announced this week I can see the price dipping under 20/1 next week. See those prices as good value.
Posted by Ice_Tiger

Cool im gona put them in my top half finish acca off the back of what you said lol so fingers crossed them make top half but finish below LEEDS UTS MOT Good luck with your bets

Ice_Tiger

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16:

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16 : Cool im gona put them in my top half finish acca off the back of what you said lol so fingers crossed them make top half but finish below LEEDS UTS MOT Good luck with your bets
Posted by BARBIE59

Still struggling with Leeds for next season so maybe you can give me an insiders view.

I have done well with Leeds to finish in the bottom half for the last couple of seasons (fairly easy bets) but expect them to make serious moves to address this for the coming season. At the moment, I am not seeing enough but don't feel confident to back them for bottom half either.

Unless I get a strong vibe either way, I guess I will give them a swerve this season.

BARBIE59

If we keep hold of mowatt, cook and byram think top half easy we signed bamba and Chris wood match winners at both ends of pitch think we still short of a good winger to get the service for the wood and erwin. but I'm not convinced about uve Rossler as of yet so I'm not betting anything on Leeds but if we do get off to good start a top  6 finsh be the goal 

Ice_Tiger

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16:

If we keep hold of mowatt, cook and byram think top half easy we signed bamba and Chris wood match winners at both ends of pitch think we still short of a good winger to get the service for the wood and erwin. but I'm not convinced about uve Rossler as of yet so I'm not betting anything on Leeds but if we do get off to good start a top  6 finsh be the goal 
Posted by BARBIE59

Do rate Rosler.

Don't rate Chris Wood though. He is rated pretty much based upon one hot spell a few years ago. He has only five goals over the last two seasons so remain unconvinced until he starts scoring in volume again.

ALFIE123

1st bet of the season

Football	Sky Bet Championship	Sky Bet Championship Winner 15/16	Win Outright	03/05/2016 15:00	Derby @ 6/1
Football	Sky Bet League 2	Sky Bet League 2 Winner 15/16	Win Outright	03/05/2016 15:00	Luton @ 9/1
Football	Premier League	Premier League Winner 15/16	Win Outright	16/05/2016 15:00	Chelsea @ 6/4

jordz16

Just put a decent bet on Middlesborough to finish in the top 6 at 5/4... I had been avoiding them as i was worried they may not score enough goals this year, but when they signed Stewart Downing it was a sign they are going for the title, he will be a fantastic player at that level, hes rarely injured and very consistent, then this morning I hear they have agreed to sign Rickie Lambert (although it hasnt quite gone through yet) even though hes getting on a bit now im sure he will be able to get 15+ goals at that level as well leading the line very well, i think with them two players they add a huge amount of experience to an already solid team so it would be a big surprise to me if they dont finish in the top 6

jordz16

Jonathan Kodjia??

yep, before today his name meant nothing to me either, but i think he will be my outside bet for Championship top goalscorer, but there is a tiny bit of logic in it, 

Last year West Ham signed Diafra Sakho for £2.5M, he had just be named French Ligue 2 player of the year, i knew nothing about him but 12 months later he had scored 15 goals for an average premier league team and been linked with 15-20M moves to Man U and Liverpool...

This years French Ligue 2 player of the year was one, Jonathan Kodjia, who Bristol City have signed for £2m, so for a team who have just been promoted from league 1 to splash out £2m must mean they want him to be their main striker next season. I dont fancy Bristol City to set the championship alight but i do expect them to score plenty of goals and when i noticed he was 50/1! to be top scorer i felt that was too good of a price not to lump on a decent each way bet... Of course there is a chance he doesnt settle in England, and ends up being shipped out after a few months, but i think at 50/1 then its a punt worth taking. 

Eyeman

Codger? Sounds a bit old.

Ice_Tiger

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16:

Jonathan Kodjia?? yep, before today his name meant nothing to me either, but i think he will be my outside bet for Championship top goalscorer, but there is a tiny bit of logic in it,  Last year West Ham signed Diafra Sakho for £2.5M, he had just be named French Ligue 2 player of the year, i knew nothing about him but 12 months later he had scored 15 goals for an average premier league team and been linked with 15-20M moves to Man U and Liverpool... This years French Ligue 2 player of the year was one, Jonathan Kodjia, who Bristol City have signed for £2m, so for a team who have just been promoted from league 1 to splash out £2m must mean they want him to be their main striker next season. I dont fancy Bristol City to set the championship alight but i do expect them to score plenty of goals and when i noticed he was 50/1! to be top scorer i felt that was too good of a price not to lump on a decent each way bet... Of course there is a chance he doesnt settle in England, and ends up being shipped out after a few months, but i think at 50/1 then its a punt worth taking. 
Posted by jordz16

Foreign players playing for the first time in England often play well but rarely win you a top scorer bet. Even Diego Costa couldn't get PL top scorer in a Chelsea side. In fact I think Thierry Henry was the last player to top score in his debut season in England in the PL.

In the Championship, no foreign player has top scored for over a decade.

14/15 Daryl Murphy 27

13/14 Ross McCormack 28

12/13 Glenn Murray 30

11/12 Rickie Lambert 27

10/11 Danny Graham 24

09/10 Nicky Maynard 20

08/09 Sylvan Ebanks Blake 25

07/08 Sylvan Ebanks Blake 23

06/07 Jamie Cureton 23

05/06 Marlon King 21

I just think there is too much risk attached to backing players with no track record although at 50/1, you might consider it a bit of a punt. There are enough proven goalscorers out there with Rhodes, Afobe, Bent, Martin, Murphy & McCormack that I doubt that he will get that close. Looking for a long shot, you could do worse than Adam Le Fondre depending on where he moves to at 50/1, Vokes (40/1) or Beckford (50/1).

jordz16

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16:

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Football betting 2015-16 : Foreign players playing for the first time in England often play well but rarely win you a top scorer bet. Even Diego Costa couldn't get PL top scorer in a Chelsea side. In fact I think Thierry Henry was the last player to top score in his debut season in England in the PL. In the Championship, no foreign player has top scored for over a decade. 14/15 Daryl Murphy 27 13/14 Ross McCormack 28 12/13 Glenn Murray 30 11/12 Rickie Lambert 27 10/11 Danny Graham 24 09/10 Nicky Maynard 20 08/09 Sylvan Ebanks Blake 25 07/08 Sylvan Ebanks Blake 23 06/07 Jamie Cureton 23 05/06 Marlon King 21 I just think there is too much risk attached to backing players with no track record although at 50/1, you might consider it a bit of a punt. There are enough proven goalscorers out there with Rhodes, Afobe, Bent, Martin, Murphy & McCormack that I doubt that he will get that close. Looking for a long shot, you could do worse than Adam Le Fondre depending on where he moves to at 50/1, Vokes (40/1) or Beckford (50/1).
Posted by Ice_Tiger

yeah i agree it is a punt, but if he was british he would probably be about 16/1, thats why i would say there is value... il happily take a risk at 50/1, also he hes built like a championship striker, if you look at them top scorers most are 6ft+ robust, target men which is what this guy is. He is also very very quick i have read and pace alone guarantees you a few goals in that league, he wont be my only bet in this market but from my early research i see him as the best value, the hardest thing is finding a guy whos guaranteed to play 40+ games, and the only ones in that bracket for top half teams are generally under 20/1

Eyeman

Codger? Sounds a bit old.

jordz16

Added a new bet..

Hearts to win the Scottish Prem w/o Celtic

I had a shortlist of the 4 teams i thought would be in with a shout, they were Aberdeen, Hearts, Inverness and Dundee, 

I quickly ruled out Dundee when I had seen they had sold their 3 best players to Celtic in the last 12 months, I watched Inverness in the Europa league last week and they looked fairly solid but were definitely lacking going forward so i ruled them out. So it was between Hearts and Aberdeen, I felt like Aberdeen would be slight favourites as they have slightly more proven players but once i noticed the odds i had to back Hearts!, 6/1 for Hearts, 4/6 Aberdeen, Hearts played fantastic last season and kept a majority of their squad as well as adding a few players who are far better than what they had.