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Who to back? Who to avoid? Well here's my world cup betting lowdown
The greatest show on earth is less than a week away now & I can’t wait. A whole month of nonstop footy. Silky skills, amazing goals, shocking refereeing decisions & most importantly the chance to take a few quid from the bookies.
Here’s my run down on all the qualifying nations. Just so that it’s not a mammoth post I’ll be doing one post per group.
Note: All prices are taken from Skybet only & are correct at time of writing.
Group A:
South Africa – Win outright 125/1
The host nation & whilst the locals are backing them to the hilt they’re not expected to do too much. They find themselves in a tricky group but one which they are capable of getting out of. The biggest surprise is that Benni McCarthy missed out on a place in their final 23. Despite being the all time leading goal scorer for them he’s struggled for form & fitness this season & looks like he’s had one too many visits to Duncan’s pie & mash shop in Green street since his switch from Blackburn to West Ham in January. Most of their 23 are home based players but there are a couple that most people will be familiar with, notably Aaron Mokoena (Pompey) & Steven Pienaar (Everton)
This will be their 3rd finals appearance & so far they’ve yet to make it past the group stage. To date no world cup host has failed to progress past the first group stage & there are many that believe South Africa could be the first with this unwanted record. However, I think back to 2002 when Japan & South Korea co-hosted the tournament & thought it would happen then. I couldn’t have been more wrong & I also think people are being too quick off the mark here as well. I don’t see the Bafana Bafana achieving too much here but I do think they’ll get out a group that contains some very hit & miss teams.
Best bet – Stage of elimination – last 16 @ 7/2
France – Win outright 20/1
A team that, on paper, should do really well. Their 23 man squad reads like a who’s who of world class players. Henry, Malouda, Anelka & Ribery just for starters, so it’s a real surprise then that they’re so hit & miss. They struggled in qualifying finishing 2nd to group winners Serbia & needed a “helping hand” from Henry to get past Ireland in the play offs. Having said that they’re still capable of topping the group but it really depends on which team turns up for the games. Their recent warm up games don’t exactly inspire confidence as they were held to a 1-1 draw with Tunisia, came from behind to beat Costa Rica 2-1 & lost their last game against China 1-0.
Their previous best in the tournament saw them win it on home soil back in 1998. They’re not gonna be anywhere near the final this time round but through the luck of the draw they’re capable of reaching the last 8.
Best Bets:
Group winners @ evens
Stage of elimination – Quarter finals @ 11/4
Mexico – Win outright 80/1
A team capable of causing minor upsets & they can also play a bit too. Unfortunately that won’t see them going too far in the tournament. They’ve got a few familiar names in their squad, most notably Giovani Dos Santos (Spurs), Javier Hernandez (Man Utd), Carlos Vela (Arsenal) & Guillermo Franco (now ex West Ham). Like the other 3 teams in this group they are capable of getting through to the 2nd round but I think they’ll just miss out this time & will head for an early exit.
Their previous tournament best is quarter finalists in 1970 & 1986 (both on home soil) & they’re not gonna improve on that here.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – Group stage @ 10/11
Uruguay – Win outright 100/1
A team with a few quality players including Luis Suarez & Diego Forlan. They qualified after finishing 5th in the South American group & then beating Costa Rica 2-1 on aggregate in a two legged play off.
Many people forget that Uruguay have won this tournament on 2 occasions (1930 & 1950) but they haven’t progressed past the first knockout round since 1970 & I can’t see them getting much joy here either. I think it’ll be a short stay for them.
Best bets:
Finish bottom of Group A @ 9/4
Stage of elimination – Group stage @ 8/11
Comments
Group B:
Argentina – Win outright 13/2
Arguably they’ve got one of the fiercest attacks of the competition with Sergio Aguero, Carlos Tevez & (imo) the greatest player in the world at the moment Lionel Messi. However they did struggle in the qualifiers where they finished in the 4th & final automatic spot with some surprising results along the way including a 1-1 draw with Peru (who finished bottom in qualifying) & a shocking 6-1 defeat away to Bolivia who finished 2nd bottom. Having said that though don’t write them off as like the Germans, they have a habit of producing when it really matters.
Like their South American counterparts Uruguay, they have also won the tournament on 2 previous occasions in 1978 (on home soil) & again in 1986 in Mexico (which included THAT goal). I expect they’ll probably win their group although they’ll face one or two stern tests along the way & with a potential 2nd round game against hosts South Africa I think they’re good for a spot in the last 8.
Best bets:
Group winners @ 2/5
Stage of elimination – Quarter finals @ 9/4
Top scorer – Lionel Messi @ 10/1
Greece – Win outright 125/1
Who can ever forget the surprise package winning Euro 2004 against all odds? They were 100/1 outsiders before the start of that tournament & whilst there’s a decent chance of them progressing to the 2nd round here there’ll be no such surprise this time round. With a squad that’s not exactly bursting with household names they’ll be relying on goals from the not so prolific Giorgos Samaras to see them through.
They qualified by finishing 2nd in their group behind Switzerland & managed to squeeze past Ukraine in the 2 legged play off courtesy of a 1-0 aggregate win. In their only other finals appearance back in 1994 they came up against both Argentina & Nigeria in their group so they’ll be renewing rivalries once again. They bombed out in 1994 conceding 10 goals without reply.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – Group stage @ 8/13
Nigeria – Win outright 100/1
A team with a few well known names are capable of getting out of this group & they’ll be relying on goals from Yakubu & Obafemi Martins, two players well known to the English game. Unfortunately though they’ll be without star man John Mikel Obi who hasn’t recovered from injury in time to take part.
They’ve reached the last 16 on two previous occasions in 1994 & again in 1998 but the best they can hope for here is a 2nd round appearance where they’re likely to face France.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – Last 16 @ 2/1
To qualify from group B @ 5/6
South Korea – Win outright 200/1
The vast majority of their squad are home based players but they do have 2 who ply their trade in the Premier League (Lee Chung-Yong of Bolton & Park Ji-Sung of Man Utd). Who can forget their memorable performance on home soil in 2002 where they reached the semi finals before narrowly losing out to Germany? They’ll be no such run this time round though & I can see an early exit for the serial whipping boys.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – Group stage @ 2/7
Finish bottom of group B @ evens
Group C:
England – Win outright 13/2
What can be said that already hasn’t? Can England win it? In my opinion yes they can but it’s still a big ask. As Gareth (35suited) said in another thread, every time a major tournament comes around I’m full of optimism only to be let down time & again. For patriotic reasons it’ll be well worth having a punt at 13/2 but we’re not gonna have it easy. Assuming we top our group we’ll likely face Serbia in the 2nd round which won’t be easy. Add to those potential meetings with France & Brazil in the quarters & semis respectively, if we are to bring home the gold then we’ll be made to work bloody hard for it.
For me, our major weakness is now at the back. With Rio out I guess Matt Upson will step in & whilst he should be OK in the group games he’ll have a lot to prove in the knockout stages. The one thing we have got though is firepower with Crouch, Defoe, Lampard, Gerrard & of course Wayne Rooney.
Previous winners on home soil in 1966 (sadly before my time) I think that although we’re capable of going all the way, realistically I’ll be quite pleased if we get as far as the semi’s.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – Semi finals @ 7/2
Top scorer – Wayne Rooney @ 10/1
To score in every group game – Wayne Rooney @ 4/1
USA – Win outright 66/1
About 10 years ago I said that sooner or later USA would be one of the world powers in international football & I firmly believe they’re on the right path. With a host of players now plying their trade away from the MLS they should almost certainly get out of this group. They breezed through qualifying with big wins against Barbados (8-0) & Cuba (6-1).
Surprisingly their best ever record was finishing 3rd in the very first tournament way back in 1930 (although only 13 teams took part). In recent times their previous best was reaching the quarter finals in 2002.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – 2nd round @ 6/4
To qualify from group C @ 4/6
Slovenia – Win outright 200/1
A team full of very few household names. Robert Koren stands out amongst them but one man doesn’t make a team. They finished 2nd in their qualifying group behind Slovakia & did very well to beat a tough Russian team over 2 legs in the play offs.
In their only other world cup outing in 2002 they lost all 3 games to Spain, South Africa & Paraguay to finish bottom of their group. I don’t expect them to get beyond the group stages again this time although they should at least register some points by beating Algeria.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – Group stage @ 2/5
Algeria – Win outright 500/1
A team expected to do nothing but make up the numbers in group C although they do have a couple of familiar names in their squad in the shape of Madjid Bougherra, Nadir Belhadj & Hassan Yebda.
I can only see one outcome for the desert foxes here but that doesn’t mean they’re not capable of springing a surprise as they did back in 1982 when they beat West Germany 2-1 in their opening game.
Best bets:
To finish bottom of Group C @ 4/6
Group
Australia – Win outright 125/1
Given that the Aussie’s a so good at so many sports it’s always been a little surprising to me that they’ve never really been that great at football. A large chunk of their squad currently play or have recently played in the Premier league including Mark Schwarzer, Lucas Neill, Tim Cahill & Harry Kewell. They now have to qualify through the Asian qualifiers & came through that by topping their group.
The previous best came 4 years ago when they made the 2nd round but I think they’ll struggle to replicate that achievement this time round given that they’re in such a tough group.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – Group stage @ 2/7
Team top scorer – Tim Cahill @ 3/1
Germany – Win outright 14/1
Blighted by injuries our old enemies simply cannot be written off & the 14/1 on offer might even be worth a small each way dabble imo. They’re certainly capable of scoring goals with a strike force of Miroslav Klose, Lukas Podolski & Mario Gomez but it might be a tall order to go all the way. They qualified by topping their group & the only team to take points of them were Finland who they drew both games with.
They have won the tournament 3 times now (1954, 1974 & 1990) & have also been runners up on 4 occasions (1966, 1982, 1986 & 2002) which shows just why they shouldn’t ever be written off. Let’s not forget that they were expected to do nothing in 2002 under Jurgen Klinsmann.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – Semi finals @ 4/1
Group winners @ 4/5
Team top scorer – Miroslav Klose @ 3/1
Ghana – Win outright 66/1
In almost any other group they would probably be one of the favourites to get through to the 2nd round but they might struggle here. They’ll be missing star man Michael Essien through injury but still have some familiar names in their squad including John Pantsil, Stephen Appiah, Sulley Muntari & Kevin-Prince Boateng. They qualified by finishing top of their group 3 points ahead of nearest challengers Benin.
Their previous best in the finals came 4 years ago in Germany where they went out in the 2nd round. It’s a big ask for them to repeat it this year & particularly without Essien, I think they’ll just miss out this time.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – Group stage @ 8/13
Serbia – Win outright 66/1
This is their first time entering as an independent nation after 9 previous outings as Yugoslavia & 1 in Unison with Montenegro 4 years ago. There are a few familiar faces in their squad including Branislav Ivanovic, Nemanja Vidic, Dejan Stankovic & new Birmingham City striker Nikola Zigic. They qualified by finishing top of their group ahead of France despite not beating them in either game.
Although this is their first outing as an independent nation their previous best as Yugoslavia was 2 4th place finishes in 1930 & 1962. They should get through the group stage where they will likely face England in the 2nd round in a game that will be tight.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – 2nd round @ 15/8
To qualify from Group D @ 5/6
Group E:
Cameroon – Win outright 110/1
They shocked the world back in 1990 when not only did they beat holders Argentina in their opening game but went all the way to the quarter finals where they were finally beaten by England, albeit only just. They don’t have too many household names in their squad but they do have a proven goal scorer in the shape of Samuel Eto’o. They finished top of their qualifying group with only 1 defeat which came away to Togo.
As mentioned their previous best at the finals came in 1990 when they were just 8 minutes away from a semi final place until a Gary Lineker penalty took the game to extra time before England eventually beat them. They’ll fancy their chances of getting out of the group where their main competition for 2nd spot will come from Denmark.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – Group stage (only just) @ 4/5
Team top scorer – Samuel Eto’o @ 11/8
Denmark – Win outright 100/1
Surprisingly Denmark have only taken 3 strikers with them in their squad & they’ll be relying on goals from the likes of Jon Dahl Tomasson & Nicklas Bentner. They finished top of their qualifying group with only one defeat which came against Hungary in the last game & they even beat Portugal away as well so they’re capable of getting results.
The previous best came in 1998 where they went out in the quarter finals to eventual winners Brazil in a 5 goal thriller. They should scrape through the group stage where they’re likely to face Italy in the 2nd round.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – 2nd round @ 15/8
To qualify from Group E @ 10/11
Holland – Win outright 10/1
The Dutch have got to considered serious contenders to win the tournament & their price has been falling in recent weeks. A while ago you could have got 14/1 on them & I can see it dropping further (fwiw, I’ve got money on them e/w @ 11/1). They’ve got so many attacking options its unreal. Van Persie, Robben, Huntelaar, Kuyt & Babel, the list is seemingly endless. They absolutely slaughtered their qualifying group winning all their games & only conceding 2 goals in the process.
Their previous best at the finals came in 1974 & 1978 where they finished as runners up on both occasions. I expect big things from them this time round & if they don’t end up winning it someone has played out of their skins to stop them.
Best bets:
Winners @ 10/1 (& falling)
Group winners @ 4/7
Top goal scorer – Robin Van Persie @ 12/1
Japan – Win outright 250/1
Well we certainly made them look like world beaters last week but I expect normal service to resume here & it’ll be a short stay for them. There are not many easily recognisable faces in their squad although Shunsuke Nakamura & Junichi Inamoto are well known to British fans. They qualified as runners up to group winners Australia.
Their previous best in the finals came on home soil in 2002 where they finished top of their group & went out to Turkey in the 2nd round. They’ll be no such joy here & I fully expect them to finish bottom of their group.
Best bets:
To finish bottom of group E @ 4/5
Total group points – 0 @ 5/1
Group F:
Italy – Win outright 14/1
I correctly backed Italy to win last time out but your money will be much better spent elsewhere this time. They should win their group & with a potential 2nd round game against Denmark they should be good enough for a quarter final place but that’s as good as it gets. They’ve still got some some real quality in their ranks in the shape of Gianluigi Buffon, Fabio Cannavaro & Gennaro Gattuso though. They finished top of their qualifying group 6 points clear of 2nd placed Ireland.
They’ve previously won the tournament on 4 occasions (1934, 1938, 1982 & 2006) as well as being runners up twice (1970 & 1994). They’ll be no joy this time round though.
Best bets:
Group winners @ 2/5
Stage of elimination – Quarter finals @ 9/4
New Zealand – Win outright 750/1
After coming top of their qualifying group containing world powers Fiji, Vanuatu & New Caledonia, they overcame Bahrain over 2 legs to get to only their 2nd ever appearance in the finals. Unfortunately for them it looks as though they’ll purely be making up the numbers. The majority of their squad are home based players although there are a couple of familiar faces in Ryan Nelson & Rory Fallon.
They lost all 3 group games in their only other finals appearance back in 1982 & it’ll be another short stay here.
Best bets:
Anything that involves them losing games.
Total group points – 0 @ 5/4
Paraguay – Win outright 66/1
Despite a population of just 6.5m, Paraguay finds themselves competing in their 4th consecutive world cup finals. Their stand out player is without doubt Roque Santa Cruz. They qualified by finishing 3rd in their group only 1 point behind group winners Brazil. They had some impressive victories along the way including 2-0 against Brazil & 1-0 against Argentina both at home.
Paraguay have never been beyond the 2nd round in the finals. They’ve achieved this on 3 occasions (1986, 1998 & 2002) & I think they’ll just miss out on doing it again this time.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – Group stage @ 6/4
Slovakia – Win outright 250/1
Like Serbia, Slovakia are competing in their first finals as an independent nation having previously competed as part of Czechoslovakia. There are not many familiar names within the Slovak camp although Martin Skrtel, Vladimir Weiss & Miroslav Stoch will be familiar with English fans. The qualified by finishing top of their group which included neighbours Czech Republic.
Although this is their first appearance as an independent nation I think they can look to a decent debut by getting out of their group.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – 2nd round @ 2/1
To qualify from G group F @ 5/4
Group G:
Brazil – Win outright 9/2
There’s a very good reason why Brazil are 9/2 2nd favourites to win & that’s because come July 11th they’re gonna be there or thereabouts. Yet another final appearance is a strong possibility & they are one of 3 teams definitely worth considering putting money on (Spain & Holland being the others). There’s no Ronaldinho or Adriano in the squad but that’s down to the fact they’ve only got to rely on the likes of Robinho, Luis Fabiano, Nilmar & of course Kaka! They topped their qualifying group losing only 2 games along the way.
Previous wins on no less than 5 occasions (1958, 1962, 1970, 1994 & 2002) make them the most successful team in world cup history. Interestingly, a potential key game of this campaign could be a quarter final meeting with Holland. It’s likely to happen & whoever wins that game is likely to go on & win the whole thing.
Best bets:
Winners @ 9/2
Group winners @ 4/7
Brazil-Spain final @ 7/1
Top goal scorer – Luis Fabiano @ 12/1
Ivory Coast – Win outright 33/1
My pick to be one of the surprise teams this tournament, Ivory Coast have the potential to go far. Unfortunately for them the draw has been anything but kind to them. Assuming they get through a difficult group they’ve got a potential 2nd round game against Spain! If Didier Drogba is declared fir for the tournament then they’ve certainly got goals in them. As well as the Drog they can also call upon Saloman Kalou up front & a midfield containing Didier Zokora & Yaya Toure. They finished top of their qualifying group undefeated.
2006 was their only other previous finals appearance where they also encountered a very difficult group against Argentina, Holland & Serbia & Montenegro, falling at the first hurdle. I think they’ll certainly go one better this time though.
Best bets:
To qualify from group G @ evens
North Korea – Win outright 1000/1
Expect no surprises from North Korea here as they are purely making up the numbers. They qualified through finishing 2nd in their group & that’s really about as good as it gets. Expect no surprises here.
North Korea has only qualified for finals on one previous occasion back in 1966. They were the surprise package then reaching the quarter finals. It’ll be short, not so sweet & quite probably very humiliating for them at times this time around.
Best bets:
Anything that involves them losing
Total group points – 0 @ 4/6
Portugal – Win outright 25/1
There’s always one surprise early elimination & this time I think it’ll be Portugal. They rely too heavily on the talents of Christiano Ronaldo & one man can’t do it all. They struggled through the qualifiers & narrowly beat Bosnia in the 2 legged play off.
Their previous best came in 1966 when they reached the semi finals. They won’t be anywhere near them this time though.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – Group stage @ evens
Team top scorer – Christiano Ronaldo @ 6/4
Group H:
Chile – Win outright 66/1
A team that isn’t bursting with household names made a real achievement in their qualifying campaign finishing 2nd behind Brazil. They’ve got the potential to get out of this group but it’s unlikely they’ll get much further.
Their previous finals best came in 1962 when they came 3rd.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – 2nd round @ 11/8
To qualify from group H @ 8/13
Honduras – Win outright 350/1
Honduras have a couple of recognised faces in Maynor Figueroa & Wilson Palacios but other than that they are largely unknowns. They qualified by finishing 3rd in their group where they managed a 1-0 home win over Mexico.
In their only previous finals outing in 1982 they finished bottom of their group & it looks as though it’s gonna be more of the same this time as well.
Best bets:
To finish bottom of group H @ 4/9
Total group points – 0 @ 9/4
Spain – Win outright 7/2 favourites
Where do you begin? Since their Euro 2008 win they’ve been top of the FIFA rankings for 17 of the subsequent 23 months, set a world record of 15 consecutive victories & won all 10 of their qualifying games conceding only 5 goals in the process. Arguably they’ve got the 2 best strikers in the tournament in David Villa & Fernando Torres as well as a midfield which includes the likes of Cesc Fabregas, Xabi Alonso & David Silva. They’re favourites for a reason & it’s not difficult to see why.
Always the under achievers in the finals, their previous best has been quarter finalists in 1986, 1994 & 2002 & they can certainly go all the way this time.
Best bets:
Winners @ 7/2
Top goal scorer – David Villa @ 8/1
Top goal scorer – Fernando Torres @ 12/1
Switzerland – Win outright 150/1
Switzerland qualified by winning their group although some would argue that it wasn’t exactly the strongest group in qualifying. They’ll be relying on goals to come from record goal scorer Alex Frei to see them through the group stages but it’s gonna be a tall order.
They’ve reached the quarter finals on 5 occasions (1934, 13938, 1954, 1994 & 2006) but they won’t be beating it this time round. I think it’ll be an early exit for them. It may even be worth a punt on them finishing bottom of the group if Honduras can spring a surprise in their meeting.
Best bets:
Stage of elimination – Group stage @ ½
To finish bottom of the group @ 7/2
Happy betting peeps. I’ll be adding specific match bets throughout the tournaments as well.
Wow Bob great work m8 not had a chance to read it all yet will spend time on it tomorrow
I,ll certainly be checking out some of those bets on the odds checker sites as I do fancy a cpl of those, especially slovakia not progressing
I have a feeling serbia might suprise a few in a group with Germany who are not the same team without Ballack. Although I don,t think he,s done that well at Chelsea he makes the German side tick and will be greatly missed.
Another good tip i saw on a previous post was N.Korea to score least goals at 9/2 , and after looking at their group I can,t see where there goals will come
have read through all your info Bob & have picked my 8 group winners as an accum which PAYS 30/1
A - FRANCE
B - ARGENTINA
C - ENGLAND
D - GERMANY
E - HOLLAMD
F - ITALY
G - BRAZIL
H - SPAIN
ty bob excellent work .
i have a £5 on south africa to win today @ 15/8 .
im on south africa this afternoon at 9/5
i did your bets on day one (ul south africa)
you realy fancy south africa to beat uruguay? if they do win, i agree it will only be 1-0.
Uruguay 100/1 ew anyone???