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"Card counting" is not guaranteed.
It gives you an edge over the casino which is why they ban it.
You appear to be unable to grasp the simplest part of any of my points.
I will happily explain the maths of the system to you but, given your current level of posting, I fear that the "subtleties" may escape you.
great.. i am glad this thread has been moved to area 51. it's time to get off this bus.
good morning all.
So tell me if my theory is silly. If you bet on a given colour, say red, every time and keep doubling your bet if you lose you will eventually make profit when it comes in, no? I do realise it's possible for an infinite number of blacks to come in but by employing common sense over mathematical possibilities we know this is highly unlikely.
I'd be intrigued to hear your take on this.
Stoneface has made some statements, not all of which are true, and obviously some are somewhat irrational. However, some have posted in reply with the same irrational verve. Mere gives (as always) an informed reasoning of odds and likelihood. However, the statement which is so often made that there is no good reason for the 'tweaking' of the RNG or software is not true.
It is true that there is no reason for any site to favour any player over any other player. That certainly would make no sense. It would have no influence on profitability of the site and therefore is pointless for any profit driven organisation. The single overriding factor for profitability and longevity for any poker site is the number of players using the site. So the only interest any site would have in 'tweaking' the software would be to increase footfall across the site.
In the early days of online poker the numbers were small. The site I played on had numbers not much above those on Sky at the moment. As with sky the community was small and what was very apparent was that there was a small number of players who were winners. These players featured in the final stages of tournaments every week. Some players improved and also began to feature in the prize money but the majority stayed for as long as their finances allowed and then disappeared. There was a huge turnover at the lower end of the skill range and the better players enjoyed a very profitable period of some 3 years. After a 'software update' something strange happened on that site and all the skins associated with each cage of the network. Players had a single card which appeared in the bottom right hand corner of the screen. A lot of table chat resulted over the next two weeks regarding the appearance of 'the card.' What became apparent was that the card wasn't on everyone's screen but it was on what could be regarded as the majority of regular's screens. When the site management were asked about the mysterious card they denied that it existed. Despite players insisting that it was there the official stance taken by the site was that it didn't exist and that it was impossible for it to be part of the screen image. After 2 weeks there was a 'scheduled software update' even though this was normally every month previously. After the update the mystery card disappeared and was never seen again.
Over the next few months my ROI dropped quite dramatically and if conversations with other regulars are to be believed so did theirs. I was still in profit but not nearly as profitable as I had been. What also became apparent was the number of players on the site grew over the next year at an incredible rate. I don't know whether the two things were related at all, I know that a few other things happened at the same time which were odd to say the least. One that stands out was the prevalence of quads that suddenly appeared at the same time as the mystery card. Literally everyone was hitting quads for a period of a few days. Table chat was buzzing with players comparing how many quads had been out on their table that night. It was quite normal to personally have quads 6 or seven times a night. There was something odd going on with the software, for sure.
The reason for the long story is that there is a very good reason for a poker site to tweak the software (if it is possible to do it and not be provable) and that is to equalise or handicap the skill factor. Equalising skill will almost certainly hold lesser skilled players in the game longer and will keep them playing the site longer. This would have the effect of recirculating the cash available, making the weaker player's money last longer and maintaining the numbers, whilst the rake increases.
If it were purely down to skill then the weaker players would all go bust (even taking into account the luck factor) and the better players would thrive (how it was in the early days of online poker) and eventually the site would have just a handful of players.
I don't suggest this 'tweaking' happens on sky or any other site for that matter, but the statement that there is no incentive for sites to do this just isn't true. Whether any site/organisation would be involved is another matter. I suppose it would all depend on the risk involved. There need be no changing of the cards from the RNG (which would show up in any audit) but control over the distribution of the cards to individual players could have the 'desired effect.'
There you go Stoneface, I've tried to give you some ammo
This has the makings of a classic area51 thread ......... I love it.
no, no, no, no no.
this is classic conspiracy theorists logic. the sequence of thought is incorrect.
it's the same in the da vinci code. the story starts with an unbelievable statement and adding that if it were to be true you would find evidence of a particular kind. on finding this evidence they conclude that the original statement is true.
for example, andy murray is an alien in the guise of a human being. look out for evidence of having two arms and two legs. oh god, he has. therefore andy murray is an alien. the example continues with skypoker software being tweaked. look out for evidence of several quads. oh god, there they are. skypoker software is corrupt.
the correct sequence is first see the evidence and thereafter conclude a statement, not the other way round.
and if andy murray beats nadal today? it doesn't prove he is an alien, it doesn't prove that he is a better player than nadal, it doesn't mean anything...unless nadal is an alien as well.
best regards
rob
Hi Bandini and thanks for the flattery.
The method that you have described is known as the "Martingale Method". It's not silly but all it does is reverse the way that the odds work, effectively.
What you need to consider is that if you staked £1 on the first bet, you would have to stake £1024 on the tenth bet to win £1 (and would have lost £2047 in total if that bet does not win).
10 successive reds (or blacks) are unlikely but far from impossible.
In summary, you are still expected to lose money using this method - you are just likely to lose it more slowly!
Read it again Aussie, the quads example wasn't sky. It happened and it wasn't a few, they shut the site down for 24 hours because something was obviously amiss. The point I was making was that the usual put-down for anyone questioning the randomness is that it isn't in the sites interest to 'tweak' the software. That just isn't true. Whether it's ever been done is another matter. I thought I made that clear .... perhaps I didn't.
Now back to Andy Murray ........ how did you find out he was an alien?
laughed at your response about alien murray.
actually my post was in response to the post above yours. while i was typing my response you had jumped the queue with yours. sorry for the confusion, i wasn't commenting on your post.... or was i? how spooky was that?
hey, wow! the one above yours was yours too. curiouser and curiouser. i think are 51 is a weird place.
Its so easy for players to push the call button when your sat at home, if your behind and get lucky no one can smack you round the head or give you abuse to your face for making a bad call. the worst you can get online is a few ***** in the chat box.
as far as fixed RNG goes there's just no point, to much risk for a possiable very very very small gain.
1. There's an upper limit you can bet on roulette, so with a bad run then you can definitely lose money
2. The 0 (and the 00 on the American tables) aren't red or black - so the odds of you winning aren't exactly 50:50 - hence you're statistically guaranteed to lose in the long run even if there wasn't an upper limit.
As for the OP - I got a few pages through and was going to post something about what 'fixed odds' actually means - but it soon became clear that it wasn't really worth it as that was just a phrase being used to mean what the OP wanted it to mean.