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Firstly horses I am doing that are not included in the ratings
12.45 Sand -Kentford Grey Lady Evens - Lost
1.50 Sand -Williams Wishes 5-4 -won very nicely after a bad mistake two out, this horse is very good.
2,45 Chepstow -Fred the Shred 8-1 -2nd
Here goes
iiii -Alfie Spinner 3.40 Sandown - 9-2 -If he stands up he should win this and already backed down to 9-2 from 7-1. Only problem he is also in Coral Welsh National and if he goes there have a bit of 12-1. didnt run well enough but wouldnt have beaten Katenko who was very impressive.
iii -Melodic Rendzvous 2.25 Sandown - 11-4 - Poet will be backed as though it is a good thing but Veloce who he beat last time didnt look a good thing at Musselburgh today. Also Jeremy Scott reckonds this is best horse he has ever trained and talking long ago about which Cheltenham race it would win. Also Champagne Fever who he lost to is thought to be one of Irelands best. Had a feeling Poet was overrarated and how did Royal Boy go off favourite this horse is a class above them and won very well at nice odds of 4-1.
ii -Arbor Supreme 3.20 Chepstow -33-1 - Ok he is well out of the weights but Maurice Linehans claim gets soime of that back. He was well fancied for National a little while back but has slipped down the weights. He will like the ground and trip , he won over 4miles last time and looked like he was back in love with the game. Ok this bit of a long shot and Alfie Spinner could still be in this race but I like him a lot. Ran a great race for 4th at 33-1 aint bad, but well done Monbeg Dude, if he could jump he would be brilliant. Good ride by Carberry
i- Michael Flips -2.40 Wincanton -6-1 This one is a bit of for old times sake as I keep on selecting this horse only for it to run below par. I still think it is a better horse than it has been showing and wont forsake it yet. Thats it, this horse has been given too many chances by me now. Had two in this race which I have done before
surprise surprise Big Fella Thanks (the other one) wins easily.
Good luck all
Father V
Lets hope our luck changes when we pick same horses
Said this six weeks ago and WOW is right, won again today after a mistake two out which was probably due to him going too well.
He is very very good as a handicapper, would he beat Sprinter Sacre though .
I hope Giles Cross OK, Have a feeling it was just a case of another horse coming off a long lay off and going out like a light. Hopefully if he can properly trained now he will win at good odds next time.
Not necessarily the virus Bell but sometimes with horses who have been off along time u think you have them fit then they hit a wall. Goring Two did the other day. I have a feeling both will run well next time.
Now +£18 up on ratings
Knew this form was good and Brick Red won absolutely as he liked this afternoon at Ludlow
Here are my ratings for the week followed by some other horses to look out for.
iiii - Justazippy -2.50 Wetherby - 9-2 -over this distance last time at Sandown this horse came looking like the winner until Kentford Gray Lady breezed past her. She was coming back at that horse when she fell at the last and if she hasnt been affected by that I see her winning tomorrow. 4th not as good as I thought
iii- Storm Survivor - 2.25 Warwick - 14-1 -Last year I got the winner of this race with a jonjo trainedhorse, the Hillisofuisneach. This horse has a very similar profile and looked all over a loser last time out before blistering home and then being eased on the line to win cosily. That was against Barafundle, a good yardstick and the extra furlong wont be a hindrance as long as the horse gets on as well with AP as it did for Maurice Linehan. West End Rocker is also interesting back over hurdles as is Holywell also trained by jonjo. Finished 6th or so and dont think he benefitted from AP McCoy although wouldnt have won. holywell second.
ii - Araldur - 2.40 Kempton -11-1 -If Wayne Hutchinson who rode it to win last time was on this horse it would be my four candles rating but unfortunately the idiot is. Even so he shouldnt co ck this up. Last time the horse messed up the third last but was still going well and battled to beat Amigo who franked the form last week at Chepstow. Bears Affair is the danger . Ran well for 4th but Oscar Dara very impressive despite messing up last.
i- Cruchain -2.05 Kempton -7-1 - Last year this horse won this race off 8lb more and whilst its form doesnt look hot , previous form last year didnt either , i still fancy it to run very close again. 3rd despite two horrendous mistakes just as it looked like he would have enough to win.
I said it was an interesting day and some of these other horses were very close to being on the ratings.
3.35 Warwick -Pete The Feat 7-2 - I expect this to win as it should get the extra 3f and is in great form. however watch for Godsmejudge backed into 8-1 and outsider Sea Saffron 25-1 who is only horse in this race to have won over the distance and its last race was over 1m2f shorter than this. Earlier in the season it won twice over 3m6f. Finished 3rd after a bit of interference, thought i had the forecast only both both to get overrun by Rigadin De Beucherne
12.40 Warwick -Franklino 10-1 in from 12-1, not mentioned by King and ridden by Hutchinson. Will come on for race
1.50 Warwick-Fill The Power 8-1 but only 5 horse race and tough job against Rocky Creek. Ran well enough in a class race and forecast with Rocky Creek ok
1.30 -Kempton -Hold On Julio SP back over hurdles to instill some of the confidence lost by Thorntons bad ride last time, Same jockey puts me off a bit. Ran well , 2nd well ahead of rest
3.15 Kempton -HandthePrizeover - 4-1 -Hopefully still ahead of handicapper and if Fill The Power wins get on.Never ran to form of last two races, handcapper got hold of him.
3.50 Kempton- Ivors King 6-1 - Very honest horse that always gives it all, 3rd to Bourne last time out. Burnt himself out going like clappers
1.05 Wetherby -Ballybriggan SP- Dont like small field so not in the ratings, still think it will win and if it does
get on. didnt see this but nowhere
1.40 Wetherby - Swiss Art 4-1 , who came second to it over similar distance last time. pulled up
Good luck to everybody whatever your choice of horses for tomoz
Father V
To cap it all missed out on the place part of Scoop 6 by one horse.
Oh well , back to the drawing board.
Here are the ratings;-
iiii - 4.10 Cheltenham - Lord of House - 6-1 -Won easily last time out and looked a class act and the price looks good.Finished sixth and well stuffed by Mr Watson et al.
iii - 3.35 -Reve De sivola - 9-4 - Very impressive last time out and now strongly favoured for the World Hurdle, must win this to be good enough to win that. What a battler, out battled Knockara and still had enough to see off Oscar Whisky. Another winner
ii- 2.25 - Hunt Ball - 9-1 - one of my favourites and this might be my heart ruling my head but ran on strongly last time over inadequate trip and he likes going this way better. Also well weighted although if previous gold cup winner Imperial Commander back to his best he is best weighted by a long chalk. 3rd at 11-1 , happy with that as owner and trainer felt he would struggle. Imperial Commander what an effort, thought I had forecast at one time only to be done by Cape Tribulation who owes me nothing after last year. Pity I didnt rate him so highly over fences. Will do now
i - 1.15 - Katenko 9-2 -Beat Johns Spirit last time out very well and if that horse wins the 12.40 than this horse must win this. Why was this only my one star ratings even with Johns Spirit running pooorly this horse showed it is improving all the time and won easily. Nice winner, I'll take that.
Also like the look of Benny's Mist 12.40 ande Coneygree 3.00 although the new One is the big favourite.
Talking about big Favourites, Sprinter Sacre looks nailed on in 1.50 but watch out for Williams Wishes although I am surprised they are not keeping him to handicaps.
Just under £20 up to £1 level stake on winners only
iiii - Renoyr- 1.00 Wetherby -4-1-Won very nicely last time and Malcolm Jefferson looks to have found a nice horse from Ireland which I think is still well handicapped. Mubrook is the danger. Let two horses get first run but wasnt going to win , finished 3rd
iii - Carruthers -2.40 Ffos Las - 12-1 - Last time out was last week in Reve De Sivola's hurdle race which I feel was just to keep him fit. The time before that he won over 3m 2F at this course beating Rhum who has since franked the form. What a heart this horse has and the jockey rode it brilliantly, so underrated, and a great win.
ii- Tweedledrum - 2.45 Wetherby- 7-1 -When I first looked at this horse today it was 10-1 , now backed into 7's and likely to shorten further. Battled really hard last time to win a good race at Kempton over 3miles and got a major chance. Didnt see race but only beaten a neck into second by Herdsman
i- Trop Fort -2.05 Ffos Las -14-1 - This is a gamble and not just because of the price as it hasnt run since winning in August, if it handles the ground , its won on soft then I think it over priced. Went out from 14-1 to 40-1 and ran well for most of the race until he went out like a light. Needed the run.
Also fancy 3.20 Wetherby-Fill the Power 12-1
3.45 Ffos Las American Life 25-1
1.50 Sandown -Nozic 6-1
3.00 Sandown-Tail of the Bank 8-1
great shout on the old boy carruthers, jumped sublimly against the shoody jumping up front of my pick Shaking Hands and apart from a more than hairy couple of seconds on the run in never really looked in doubt of getting in
The way I played it , certainly not the way he played his.
LOL
When are people going to take in the vagaries of this website rather than playing real poker .
Father V
Some very trappy but good races this weekend and again I have gone for value.
Could give you Chatterbox 1.15 Newbury won at 5-4 easily, Silvianaco conti 2.25 New won easily 8-11 and Fago 2.40 Warwick , treble went when he was going to win and knuckled over 2nd last .
iiii - Open Day 12.55 Warwick - Open Day 11-2 - This horse came second last time to Dark Lover who is in the Betyfair Hurdles at Newbury. a race of lot higher class. Also going to Newbury is Tony McCoy and although he is not my favourite jockey , what is he doing here for just one ride. Should win. Why oh why does this jockey think he knows better than the horse, was enjoying it self and jumping well until he bugg ered it up asking for another stride 6 from home. Horse lost all confidence although cloudy bob ran so well I doubt it would have won. Picked the wrong one of his two at Warwick Ma Feuile wins.
iii -Bocciani 2.05 Warwick 8-1 - Really enjoyed himself last time out and I fancy him to upset Drumshando 6-4 but never won at this distance and other class horses stepping back in distance and giving my horse weight. Never going to win after bad mistake
ii - Night Safe - 2.50 Uttoxeter 12-1 - This could be anything with three seconds out of its last four runs and coming back off a long lay off. Just hoping Nige has got it fit for this and if so could come in at a nice price. Ran really well first time back after 1000 days off and tired quickly before coming back to just miss out on 3rd.
i - Cause of Causes -3.35 Newbury -14-1 - The aforementioned Betfair and I cant desert this horse who won well against a lot of these rivals and then won again at Navan. Fancy he is an improving type and hopeful he can win again. Obviously too much weight and not in the best place on that inside.
Also fancy
Swiss Art 3.25 Uttox lost
Knock A Hand 1.50 Newbury lost , also given by my mate BELLPOKER
good luck all
Father V