Reality TV betting

jordz16

I thought it would be easier to set up a thread for this instead of hijacking the Channing thread.

anyone with any opinions or tips on any sort of TV or reality tv betting is welcome to post..

I will post my tips up for I'm a celeb, X factor, strictly, Big Brother etc as and when the time comes, 

I'll start by tipping Joel Domett at 10/1 for Im a celeb, looking back at previous winners the most they have in common is having a good sense of humour which is important after weeks of lack of sleep/food etc, so picking the comedian is the obvious choice. I think the lass from Gogglebox is rightly favourite as she has a bigger following already, but is too short of a price to consider, Ill probably cover myself by backing 1 or 2 more once the show starts.

Phantom66

I've put a small bet on Martin Roberts e/w at 16/1 I am a homes under the hammer fan.

Hopefully he will be the "housewives choice". 

Agree with you that Scarlett is a worthy favourite but too short to bet on before an episode is shown. Fits the reality/soap star profile of most winners.

There are also bound to be some late entrants which can mess up the SPs considerably.

Half way through usually pretty easy to predict top 3.

Phantom66

My Strictly Picks from the other thread are holding up ok.

Especially Louise who is now 5/2 from 15/2, Claudia is 8/1 from 9/1 and represents the value imo at that price.

wynne1938

I have had a fun bet on Strictly:

Anastasia 50/1 OUT

Judge Rinder 10/1

Phantom66

do you think I will get money back for a non-runner?

jordz16

It's hit and miss, I backed Will Young on strictly, and Skybet refunded everyones bets which was nice, but unless they state it then they dont have to refund you, 

Phantom66

They are still taking bets on Martin Roberts and Danny Baker after taking them off yesterday.

Danny Baker is favourite male - which must mean the others are good value if he isn't going in?

But then maybe he is?

I think it would be fair to take peoples punts pre-announcements e.g. for Farage and not refund if they didnt go in, but unfair if they took money when they reduced the field to the "leaked" list and then people on it didnt go in.

I suppose I'll just wait and see now.

jordz16

I think if someone pulled out at the last minute you would be very unlucky not to get your money back. 

jordz16

Early shout for X factor elimination.

Sam Lavery 2/1

sees to have been given hardly any airtime last few weeks, and virtually no budget spent on her perfomances indicate she is not wanted, if she is put in the first 3 of the show this week then i think 2/1 is great value. its a 3 way spli between her, Ryan and Sara, and given the other 2 have had a mini revival in the last couple of weeks i feel sams time could be up

MP33

In Response to Re: Reality TV betting:

Early shout for X factor elimination. Sam Lavery 2/1 sees to have been given hardly any airtime last few weeks, and virtually no budget spent on her perfomances indicate she is not wanted, if she is put in the first 3 of the show this week then i think 2/1 is great value. its a 3 way spli between her, Ryan and Sara, and given the other 2 have had a mini revival in the last couple of weeks i feel sams time could be up
Posted by jordz16

Not had a punt tonight but after hearing they,ve got rid off the flash vote i can see Sam and Ryan in the bottom two and would have to be Ryan going home in a sing off. It was interesting to hear last week that there was only 4% difference in the voting between the bottom 4 and yet Matt Terry is still odds on to win.

EDIT : Just had a small wager on on ryan at 5/2  for elimination ( i thought he,s be odds on )

jordz16

Bosh 3/3 on eliminations, but did notice Emil has drifted A bit in the outright s which is a slight worry.

In better news Joel has came in to 4/1 on I'm a celeb

MP33

In Response to Re: Reality TV betting:

Bosh 3/3 on eliminations, but did notice Emil has drifted A bit in the outright s which is a slight worry. In better news Joel has came in to 4/1 on I'm a celeb
Posted by jordz16

I,m really starting to kick myself now - I was gonna follow you this time Jordz but figured you,d done your bet before finding out that they,d got rid of the flash vote. Also held off on Joel for i,m a celeb. i wanted to wait until it started as still unsure of the full field - well done tho - gr8 tips and bets

ps (thought i,d got it when it came to Mrs O,s decision but seems she changed her mind as she was saying it)

jordz16

Having a saver bet on Vorderman at 16/1 in the jungle, she seems mentally strong and has the biggest social media following out of all the celebs, im unsure whether she is exciting enough to win it but id be very suprised if she is still a double figure price by this time next week

MP33

In Response to Re: Reality TV betting:

Having a saver bet on Vorderman at 16/1 in the jungle, she seems mentally strong and has the biggest social media following out of all the celebs, im unsure whether you is exciting enough to win it but id be very suprised if she is still a double figure price by this time next week
Posted by jordz16

Good point. I,ve managed to get Joel at 9.4 and Vorderman at 19.5

Not sure whats happening with X-factor odds but Honey G is second fav in some places. The novelty acts have been getting closer in recent years like Reggie and Bollie coming 2nd last time. Could this be the year???

jordz16

In Response to Re: Reality TV betting:

In Response to Re: Reality TV betting : Good point. I,ve managed to get Joel at 9.4 and Vorderman at 19.5 Not sure whats happening with X-factor odds but Honey G is second fav in some places. The novelty acts have been getting closer in recent years like Reggie and Bollie coming 2nd last time. Could this be the year???
Posted by MP33

Its a 4 horse race, and normally by this stage you have a clear idea of who they are pushing to win, early on it seemed like it was clearly Matt, then it seemed like it was Emily, now it could be any of the 4 front runners, im not sure whether Simon would like the idea of Honey G winning as it may affect the number of credible artists who apply in future years. so i would imagine her given the worst slot and a low budget performance at the final. id never back Matt at that price as he doesnt seem a very marketable winner and there must have been a reason they really cut his airtime after the first 2 weeks, i still feel the value is with Emily as once ryan is eliminated she will know doubt have the whole of Scotland backing her. 

Phantom66

I think I have done my money on mr roberts, glad it was only a small outlay. Coming in and whinging like that isn't going to get any fans. Most likely to be first out now. 

jordz16

X factor looks predictable this week, Ryan given worst slot and dreaded compliment from Simon, 90% sure he will go but wont touch him at the prices offered, Big plus for Emily being given the final slot again, definitely sensing she is preferred to Matt by those in charge,

over to Im a celeb, big indicator of popularity from the latest camp vote with Scarlett given camp leader and Joel vice-leader

Scarlett definitely the most likely winner but wouldnt back anyone at evs this early, the value is still with Joel at 10s, only him, Scarlett will appeal to male, female, young and old imo. 

Phantom66

Strictly elimination was easy money with Greg Rutherford getting 2nd lowest mark and not being as "entertaining" as Ed or Judge Rinder. He was 6/4 j/f to go. I put a saver bet on Ed as I was sure greg would be in dance off and Ed at 5/2 was the only one who greg could have beaten in a dance off.

I suspect Ed's time will come soon and I hope it does, as the better dancers deserve a shot at the final.

The bookies see it as a clear 2 horse race now with Danny and Louise super short, I have Louise e/w with a top 3 finish when 15/2. Claudia has drifted to 10/1 after being in the dance off. Still have hopes of getting a return if she can make top 3 with my e/w @8/1. If she gets to the final then I think she will be in with a chance of winning it. She made one mistake on Saturday otherwise she would also have got 10s.

jordz16

4/4 on X factor so far, even if i didnt have any money on it this week, Honey G looks most vulnerable this week, and she wouldnt survive a sing off against any of the main 3 contenders, will be interesting to see the running order for net week as im not sure if they are singing two songs or one, the Only way Honey G wont go is if Sara is given a bad spot/song, and Honey G gets one of the final 2 spots and a big production. 

On Celeb Scarlett has made a big drift to 6/4 which is goo to see, if she ever gets as high as 3/1 i think id start backing her, Joel has came right in now and probably doesnt offer much value, i think Carol at 25/1 offers some great each way value as she doesnt seem the type to implode at any point. with the app playing a big part in this years show i do feel the winner will be one of the younger members though.

If i had to pick my predictions right now is would be 1. Scarlett, 2. Joel, 3. Carol

MP33

I,ve had a small punt on Martin Roberts at 40/1 EW. I think he represents better value than some of the shorter priced celebs as he gets a lot more air-time than them. Its easy to forget a cpl of them are even there. I love watching him as well and hopefully he,ll get plenty more trials to do. I,m not saying he,ll win but think can definately see him getting to last 2 or 3

MP33

Just been looking at the odds for x-factor. It seems Emily has slipped to 10/1 and is now 4th fav - even behind Saara. theres been 2 acts on (Matt and Saara). Could this be a good time to back her ? 

jordz16

In Response to Re: Reality TV betting:

Just been looking at the odds for x-factor. It seems Emily has slipped to 10/1 and is now 4th fav - even behind Saara. theres been 2 acts on (Matt and Saara). Could this be a good time to back her ? 
Posted by MP33

Id say so, her and Sara were given the best slots and most airtime last night which means they are very much hoping to have both in the semi final, Matt Terry was again given the least airtime and worst possible slots on the show, it shows he would not be a popular winner among those in control but hes obviously extremely popular which is why they are fighting it so hard. Im sure Honey G's time will be up this week, id expect to see her and Sara in the bottom 2. with Sara singing second an therefore being saved by the judges. 

gonedoggin

Sara & Honey G bottom 2 is 5/1. Gona have me some of that....not let us down yet Jordzy

MP33

Was gonna punt on Honey G but shes now only 1/3 best priced to go . Gonna go for the bottom combo on Sky off Honey G and Saara  and is now 7/1 - GL ( ps . How do you think Martin will do in a celeb - into 8/1 from 40,s

ps Didn,t realise what a good market Sky has on these

Phantom66

RE: I'm a celeb and Martin I think the top 4 are clear and unlikely to be dislodged. Given their air time and amount of people voting for them when it is to do a trial or get a perk.

Scarlett, Adam, Joel and now Martin. I agree Scarlett and Adam are favourites but after thinking I have done my money pleased he is in there with a shout now.

I think Larry being a d*ck to him will help him, especially with scarlett speaking up for him as opposed to being the "victim" last time. They also showed alot of celbs saying nice things about Martin.

So he is in with a shout of top 2 and probably represents the value for an e/w bet. I actually had 2 bets on him before he entered at 16/1 and 33/1 and that was e/w 3 places so I could yet get a return.

jordz16

5/5 on X factor eliminations, given the only 2 who havent been in the bottom 2 all series are Emily and Matt then i guess its a 2-way shoot out between them. Saras price has dropped rapidly but its hard to imagine they would want her to win as im not sure how marketable she would be as a winner, although she does add some European interest if she makes the final.

I'm a celeb should be easy to pick each elimination, as there is only a short window to vote, therefore look at the bottom 4 in the market and pick whoever has had the least airtime that night..

In terms of the winner market it looks likely to be a 3 horse race (sorry Phantom!) going by recent follows, interactions, and likes, Scarlett, Joel and Adam have had more than double the rest of the field combined..... Scarlett comes out on top, Adam is a close second, and Joel is third. There is still time for it all to change though, as it only takes 1 major incident to swing the odds in anyones favour.

 Martin Roberts is a strange one, i think if people were voting who to eliminate he would have been first gone, but as its a save vote then the biggest and strangest charachters should make it a lot further, for him to have a chance of winning though he will need to monopolise the airtime, im not too sure the producers would want him to win either with him representing a tv show from another channel, but the same goes for Scarlett too although i think she may have quit her show to come on here.

 Given the 2 eliminations so far have been celebs who are virtually unknown to those under 25 that may be the way the eliminations now go. If i had to plump for the next elimination id say Sam Quek 2/1 as she has by far the lowest fanbase left in but i wouldnt be betting on it until ive seen a portion of the show. 

gonedoggin

If youve got a laptop handy when its on tonight Jordz do you mind sticking in here who your gonna go with? I agree that Sam will go tonight too and thats my plan but il wait for a bit

jordz16

Yeah i will try to, just seen Sam and Carol will be doing the trial tonight which may give them enough airtime to keep them safe.. this would lead me to think that Ola Jordan is vulnerable at 15/2.. I may have a bet on that now as i reckon sam/Carol's odds will drift once they are seen doing the trial

MAXALLY

In Response to Re: Reality TV betting:

I'm a celeb should be easy to pick each elimination, as there is only a short window to vote, therefore look at the bottom 4 in the market and pick whoever has had the least airtime that night.. In terms of the winner market it looks likely to be a 3 horse race (sorry Phantom!) going by recent follows, interactions, and likes, Scarlett, Joel and Adam have had more than double the rest of the field combined..... Scarlett comes out on top, Adam is a close second, and Joel is third.
Posted by jordz16

You have nailed it there Jordz. I have been following this thread with interest from the start as I have had quite a bit of success on Reality TV betting myself over the last few years. I only follow IACGMOOH & Big Brother now so have not contributed. I just can not watch Strictly & Xfactor rigged shows anymore so leave them markets alone.

Anyway, I tipped (not here but another forum) Scotty T to win CBB  a while back. I had a very large amount (for me anyway) on him to win and it was just down to his age and media interaction like twitter follows etc. 

The one factor thing I will add to your 3 horse race (which I agree with) is if the winner is 'sellable' after the show ends?. Scarlett is my fav to win but Joel could be more suited to the aftershow stuff like Xtracamp which is now fronted by ex winners, who are all wannabe presenters, plus a comic frontman. For this reason, I have had bets on both.

Good luck anyway....and if anyone asks, neither of us watch any of it!

MAXALLY

Follow on from above, just had Scarlett & Joel in the dual forecast @ 11/4.

The value e/w bet might be Jordan @ 66/1 who is going on a 'journey' the more the show goes on.

MP33

I,ve jusr laid my Joel to win bet off as he,s come right in 5/2 - took your advice for once jordz and backed him at tens. Gonna put some of the profit on maxallys tip for the forecast and a bet on Ola to go although i,m also gonna watch first and see if she gets much air time

also think Saara to go nxt week is good value at 4/1