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Reality TV betting

245

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  • jordz16jordz16
    edited November 2016
    Id be avoiding Carol and Sam now this trial is getting a decent amount of airtime, there is probably value to be had with Ola (9/2) Larry ) (6/1) and Wayne (12/1) im just going to stick with my Ola bet from earlier though. 
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  • gonedoggingonedoggin
    edited November 2016
    In Response to Re: Reality TV betting:
    Id be avoiding Carol and Sam now this trial is getting a decent amount of airtime, there is probably value to be had with Ola (9/2) Larry ) (6/1) and Wayne (12/1) im just going to stick with my Ola bet from earlier though. 
    Posted by jordz16
    Yeeeeessss Jordz, you da man!
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  • MP33MP33
    edited November 2016
    In Response to Re: Reality TV betting:
    In Response to Re: Reality TV betting : Yeeeeessss Jordz, you da man!
    Posted by gonedoggin
    +1 to that - Got her at 5/1 before the programme started .I noticed she went in to 9/4 towards the end of it. @Jordz - what time do we find out whos doing the trial?
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  • jordz16jordz16
    edited November 2016
    Another nice win, i think that confirms how important air time will be over the next few days..

    as for the trials, im not sure, i only noticed by chance earlier when i googled IAC, but a simple search of the twitter or website in the afternoon should provide the much needed info. 
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  • jordz16jordz16
    edited November 2016
    been announced Larry and Jordan are doing the trial tonight, which means id e avoiding them again, that leaves 3 likely candidates, Carol (5/4) Sam (11/4) and Wayne (6/1) I agree Carol is most likely to go, but i wouldnt touch her at that price, statistically Sam is about the right price but i feel she is desperate to stay and that may sway some voters, so if there is any value then its with Wayne at 6/1, he seems like a top bloke and is well liked but i dont think hes getting enough airtime and if we remember When Jimmy Bullard was on here he was out first so Footballers down have the greatest of records.. My hope is Carol will drift at some point and if she gets to 5/2 at any point then il have a saver bet on her as well.
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  • gonedoggingonedoggin
    edited November 2016
    In Response to Re: Reality TV betting:
    been announced Larry and Jordan are doing the trial tonight, which means id e avoiding them again, that leaves 3 likely candidates, Carol (5/4) Sam (11/4) and Wayne (6/1) I agree Carol is most likely to go, but i wouldnt touch her at that price, statistically Sam is about the right price but i feel she is desperate to stay and that may sway some voters, so if there is any value then its with Wayne at 6/1, he seems like a top bloke and is well liked but i dont think hes getting enough airtime and if we remember When Jimmy Bullard was on here he was out first so Footballers down have the greatest of records.. My hope is Carol will drift at some point and if she gets to 5/2 at any point then il have a saver bet on her as well.
    Posted by jordz16
    Im gonna follow cos you've done really well on the others. My problem with going for Wayne is I sometimes believe in the logic that when someones been in the bottom 2 the Wayne "die hards" might come out hard now to keep him in.
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  • jordz16jordz16
    edited November 2016
    thats true, and i did consider leaving it for now, what swayed it for me was only Martin has a lesser online following than Wayne also i feel that Joel is very Similar to Wayne except slightly funnier so those who may consider voting for Wayne would probably sway towards voting for Joel. But as its a 3 horse race imo Id happily have a bet on Sam or Carol too if their prices reach 3/1
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  • MP33MP33
    edited November 2016
    sam did reach 3/1 - About 10 mins before the vote Wayne was evs fav to go. Had a little bet on him earlier at 6,s

    EDIT - Didn,t expect Jordan - cudda got 12/1 during the show
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  • jordz16jordz16
    edited November 2016
    It Was a strange one tonight, there are a couple of reasons why i can justify it, his task was aired very early during the show when the viewing figures are at the lowest, the task seemed fairly easy and wasnt given a huge amount of airtime... I felt like things were nailed on with Wayne as he reached odds on midway through the show, unfortunately 5 mins before the voting closed he did the mini trial with Adam which would have seem a late flurry of votes and was probably what cost us
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY
    edited November 2016


    Lamb next out is 11/2. Mentioned in the after show (by Danny baker) he was close to walking on a couple of occasions, but being a 'pro' didnt (obv). He was also visibly sunk when he didnt go tonight. Plus the trial coming up where 4/5 get water cannoned etc, so younger ones needed for that imo.
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  • MP33MP33
    edited November 2016
    Looks a bit tricky tonight. I know Sam and Joel are doing a trial so maybe Sam will et saved.

    just noticed Saara was still 4/1 in a cpl of places for next elimination on X-factor, so placed a bet on that and hoping she,s in the bottom 2 and it goes to deadlock

    EDIT : got Lamb at 6/1 with a small bet for tonight
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  • jordz16jordz16
    edited November 2016
    I wont be watching tonight, as the West ham game is on, Sam And Joel will be doing the trial, which means id consider Wayne (9/4), Larry (6/1), Carol (9/4), and Martin (12/1) for tonight... i wont personally be having a bet, but if any of them 4 seem to get considerably less airtime than the others then thats who id go with providing i was still getting a decent price (2/1+)
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  • MP33MP33
    edited December 2016
    Took an early price of 9/2 on Larry again to go.

    I,ve got a feeling it will be Wayne and Martin doing the trial tommorow as they wanted to do it tonight. Larry looks fed up now and with Sam getting more time with less contestants in shes coming accross quite well.

    Just placed my first bet on Strictly - With the first perfect 40 of the series i can only see Danny Macs odds going further in and think he,s only hovering around 4/5 as he came 2nd in that cha cha cha challenge to Louise. He,s been consistently best throughout the series and i just can,t see him not winning now.  

    EDIT : Elimination for Strictly looks quite straightforward this week with Judge Rinder almost certain to go and although 4/11 isn,t a big price i can,t see anyone else going and he won,t win a dance off against any of the remaining contestants
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  • jordz16jordz16
    edited December 2016
    I didnt catch the show yesterday, but from what i read it seemed Carol got the least airtime and reaffirmed my opinions on how the voting works, therefore im going to try and avoi backing anyone untl we know who is doing the Dingo challenge each day as that gets aired just before voting closes, this also helps us narrow down the field. It seems Scarlett is doing the trial today who is very safe anyway, so there will be a 4-horse race between, Wayne (7/4) Sam(9/4) Larry(4/1) and Martin (9/2) Hopefully 2 of these end up doing the dingo challenge to make it much easier for us. As it is Martin and Larry offer as a small amount of value if you wish to take the early price, but personally im going to wait and see and hope the prices dont shorten too much before we have much more info. 


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  • pokerdonkpokerdonk
    edited December 2016
    NO WONDER BOOKIES ARE RICH THE AMOUNT OF RETARDS THAT BET ON THIS SHIT3
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  • MP33MP33
    edited December 2016
    In Response to Re: Reality TV betting:
    I didnt catch the show yesterday, but from what i read it seemed Carol got the least airtime and reaffirmed my opinions on how the voting works, therefore im going to try and avoi backing anyone untl we know who is doing the Dingo challenge each day as that gets aired just before voting closes, this also helps us narrow down the field. It seems Scarlett is doing the trial today who is very safe anyway, so there will be a 4-horse race between, Wayne (7/4) Sam(9/4) Larry(4/1) and Martin (9/2) Hopefully 2 of these end up doing the dingo challenge to make it much easier for us. As it is Martin and Larry offer as a small amount of value if you wish to take the early price, but personally im going to wait and see and hope the prices dont shorten too much before we have much more info. 
    Posted by jordz16
    they,ve done a live trial quiz thing live on "this morning". It will be intereseting to see who they show from that as everyone was involved
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  • jordz16jordz16
    edited December 2016
    with the voting extended to 24 hours, it means that tonights airtime will be less important, the "big 3" should be certs to stay, that leaves 4 others, but with Larry having 4x the fan base of the others then the 24 hour vote should have been enough time for his management to secure enough votes for his safety. So that leaves us with 3 and with Sam never havig been in the bottom 2 im going to reluctantly rule her out, so Im either going for Martin or Wayne and i think i will back both of them to play it safer
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited December 2016
    I've gone for Wayne.

    Top 3 untouchable and Sam will get coverage on the dingo trial. Larry and Martn getting plenty of airtime over their differences, so even though dont show either in the best of light at times (more so Martin) I think it will pick up votes out of sympathy or spite to keep them both in.
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited December 2016
    Larry going could be bad news for Martin.

    Top 3 remain untouchable. With noone left who openly dislikes Martin he could struggle as he will naturally get less airtime and no sympahy vote. Sam has done well of late and the 3 younger guys are pretty close knit - the "lads montage" and the press treatment probably helped save Wayne today but because he is 4th favourie to win Martin could be best value for an early punt. 

    I might even keep backing him to be eliminated now anyway seeing as I have the 2 early e/w bets on him to win.




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  • MP33MP33
    edited December 2016
    In Response to Re: Reality TV betting:
    Took an early price of 9/2 on Larry again to go. I,ve got a feeling it will be Wayne and Martin doing the trial tommorow as they wanted to do it tonight. Larry looks fed up now and with Sam getting more time with less contestants in shes coming accross quite well. Just placed my first bet on Strictly - With the first perfect 40 of the series i can only see Danny Macs odds going further in and think he,s only hovering around 4/5 as he came 2nd in that cha cha cha challenge to Louise. He,s been consistently best throughout the series and i just can,t see him not winning now.   EDIT : Elimination for Strictly looks quite straightforward this week with Judge Rinder almost certain to go and although 4/11 isn,t a big price i can,t see anyone else going and he won,t win a dance off against any of the remaining contestants
    Posted by MP33
    Boom - Agree with Phantom and will go for Martin tommorow. I,ve still got him to win at 40,s but think its unlikely now. Took an early price and got 7/2. Considering he,s been in the bottom 2the last 3 days i think its good value
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  • jordz16jordz16
    edited December 2016
    I called it very wrong last night, probably my fault as i thought his bigger following would keep him safe, yet when i looked on his twitter page there was only 2 tweets in 24 hours, where as Wayne and Sam's pages had hundreds of messages canvassing votes, so a little bit of an oversight from me there... im off out tonight so wont be having a bet on it but would edge towards saying Martin would be the value option as him, Wayne and Sam will be very close. 
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  • MP33MP33
    edited December 2016
    In Response to Re: Reality TV betting:
    In Response to Re: Reality TV betting : Boom - Agree with Phantom and will go for Martin tommorow. I,ve still got him to win at 40,s but think its unlikely now. Took an early price and got 7/2. Considering he,s been in the bottom 2the last 3 days i think its good value
    Posted by MP33
    Got paid on this but only half the odds with it being a double eviction. Didn,t realise they were going to evict both at the same time. I wonder why Martin left first tho? Could it be because he got less votes?

    Anyway onto X-factor and i think i,ll stick with my bet on saara to go . She,s still 4/1 and i think she may have peaked. She,s had a bt of time out of the botton 2 now but with only 4 left incl.Emily and matt who.ve never been there i think its a good chance.

    You,d also think they,d like a group in the final and Simon has been a fan of 5 after midnight since the start 
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited December 2016
    In Response to Re: Reality TV betting:
    In Response to Re: Reality TV betting : Got paid on this but only half the odds with it being a double eviction. Didn,t realise they were going to evict both at the same time. I wonder why Martin left first tho? Could it be because he got less votes? Anyway onto X-factor and i think i,ll stick with my bet on saara to go . She,s still 4/1 and i think she may have peaked. She,s had a bt of time out of the botton 2 now but with only 4 left incl.Emily and matt who.ve never been there i think its a good chance. You,d also think they,d like a group in the final and Simon has been a fan of 5 after midnight since the start 
    Posted by MP33
    Martin was announced as being in 6th place. you should get full payout. I did but it was a sweat waiting for it to be settled.
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  • MP33MP33
    edited December 2016
    N1 Phantom. I watched over the Martin interview as Dec did say he,d finished 6th .I placed my bet elsewhere . Just phoned up about it and  as i was on the phone the amount in my account doubled. Apparantly they,ve had numerous calls and the issue had been escaleted. Thank god - wasn,t looking forward to arguing my point with someone in the Phillipines who can,t speak very good English and has probably never even heard of i,m a celeb

    Think Sam is nailed on tonight but odds look little short for a punt

    EDIT : tried to do a double with Sam and Judge Rinder to go tonight but wouldn,t accept my bet so just went for single on Rinder although its only 2/7. Absolute cert tho
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY
    edited December 2016
    In Response to Re: Reality TV betting:
    Follow on from above, just had Scarlett & Joel in the dual forecast @ 11/4. The value e/w bet might be Jordan @ 66/1 who is going on a 'journey' the more the show goes on.
    Posted by MAXALLY

    Booom! That pays for the w/end poker losses and a few beers. Merry Xmas me ;)
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  • MP33MP33
    edited December 2016
    In Response to Re: Reality TV betting:
    I,ve jusr laid my Joel to win bet off as he,s come right in 5/2 - took your advice for once jordz and backed him at tens. Gonna put some of the profit on maxallys tip for the forecast and a bet on Ola to go although i,m also gonna watch first and see if she gets much air time also think Saara to go nxt week is good value at 4/1 
    Posted by MP33
    N1 Maxy

    Gutted its finished. Its been a nice little earner. Got some good odds on the evictions this week. One thing i,ve learnt from this series tho is to stick with the younger celebs as with this "5 free votes on the app" as opposed to 1 phone call - the voters tend to be a lot younger 

    Made a couple of quid on Judge Rinder going in Strictly and my Danny Mac bet is looking good after he,s finally gone in from 4/5 to around 4/7. He seems to be a class above the rest. Wanted to do a forecast with him and louise but can,t see anywhere taking bets on it

    As for X-factor - After Dermott said that all the contestants have all been voted top at some point it should have been a cue to lay Matt off as he,s been odds on nearly all the way through. But now after the result he,s slipped to 2nd fav behind Saara. I lost my Saara to go bet and am suprised at how the public have changed their minds on her. Haven,t got a clue on whos gonna win now. 

    Is there any way of finding out how the voting has gone after these shows finish or do they still keep it qiuet
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited December 2016
    They usually do publish x factor votes after the series finishes.

    I dont know about the other shows.

    I am still happy with my strictly bets on Louise 15/2 and Claudia 9/1 both e/w.

    While Danny is the more all round dancer and has been consistently very good I think Claudia is still in with a shout albeit at 1/4 odds for a olace now there isnt great value there.

    I think Ore is almost certain to go next week. If Claudia manages to put some emotion into her rumba she will really close the gap. 

    The best dancer of the series overall doesnt always win. It is often down to who performs well on the final night and in particular who can nail the show dance.

    Chris Hollins and Louis Smith for example.

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  • jordz16jordz16
    edited December 2016
    Im a celeb unfortunately went as predicted, i would be interested to see the voting % as id of imagined it was very close between the top 3.. was a profitable series with ew money for joel and a few good elimination bets but its always annoying when you dont manage to get the winner, 
     X factor has gone a bit crazy in recent weeks with Saara going from 125/1 to fav within 4 weeks. Matt Terry has been treated awfully constantly given the worst spots, worst songs, least airtime etc, i dont quite no why, but even though hes receiving positive comments they have one everything possible to stop him winning... Emily was given very bad treatment too this week, with them possible wanting to avoid another female winner, i feel that no one from this series will go on to have an actual music career so i wont be risking backing anyone this week as it could go any way. 
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited December 2016
    Gone for Ore to go at 5/6 this week as I suspect if I am right that will shorten considerably after the dances.

    I have also gone for Claudia to be top female at 7/2 - she tied with Louise this week, technically she is already a better dancer and just needs to connect a little more with the emotion which she is working on.

    Also being a professional gymnast I think she will cope better with the rigours of 2 and 3 dances in the last 2 weeks.

    I am not saying she shoud be favourite to beat Louise but it is alot closer than those odds.
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  • MP33MP33
    edited December 2016
    In Response to Re: Reality TV betting:
    Gone for Ore to go at 5/6 this week as I suspect if I am right that will shorten considerably after the dances. I have also gone for Claudia to be top female at 7/2 - she tied with Louise this week, technically she is already a better dancer and just needs to connect a little more with the emotion which she is working on. Also being a professional gymnast I think she will cope better with the rigours of 2 and 3 dances in the last 2 weeks. I am not saying she shoud be favourite to beat Louise but it is alot closer than those odds.
    Posted by Phantom66
    Saara going from 125/1 to fav within 4 weeks.

    Wish i,d punted on that. Haven,t got a clue who,s gonna win now

    N1 Phantom - I,m liking those odds on Ore to go so punted on it myself - GL
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