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** JACKPOT SYNDICATE ** OFFICIAL THREAD ** 387 SHARES FINALISED FOR AUGUST 1ST 2017 ONWARDS ** AUGUS

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Comments

  • edited May 2017
    Jackpot will probably be at Ascot tomorrow, if not, it will be Haydock.

    Either way cards to tough, so it's NO-GO and hope for a rollover.

    No need to prep spreadsheets Roger and NAP's will go back to one selection from one of the Jackpot races.

    Cheers,

    G
  • edited May 2017
    Scoop six worth 650,000 tomorrow. just a thought
  • edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE - OFFICIAL THREAD **PLEASE FIND THE UPDATED LEDGER FOLLOWING ON FROM THE 12/05/17 LOSS AT CHESTER ** SHARE DEALINGS ARE NOW FROZEN UNTIL 26TH MAY 2017:
    Scoop six worth 650,000 tomorrow. just a thought
    Posted by vaigret
    Not even a consideration.

    To do a perm covering 60% of betting market in each leg. Perm cost /> £60K, out of our bankroll. :=)

    A £500 perm would give us a less than 0.1% chance imo.
  • edited May 2017
    ok but thought you said in earlier post we might look at it if it really big and why cover 60% in each leg we don't in jackpots . oh well as I said just a thought
  • edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE - OFFICIAL THREAD **PLEASE FIND THE UPDATED LEDGER FOLLOWING ON FROM THE 12/05/17 LOSS AT CHESTER ** SHARE DEALINGS ARE NOW FROZEN UNTIL 26TH MAY 2017:
    ok but thought you said in earlier post we might look at it if it really big and why cover 60% in each leg we don't in jackpots . oh well as I said just a thought
    Posted by vaigret
    We are not far off that in Jackpots, and do average /> 60% (of the betting market, not 60% of selections clearly) per leg. That is the whole premise of our strategy.

    The three perm version was an adapted coverage option, but between the three we had > 60% of the betting market covered in most legs. I am not talking about covering 60% of the field in each leg, clearly that would be un-viable.

    NB: For example a 4/7 shot ON IT'S OWN  covers 57.3% of the betting market, assuming a bookmaker best price mark up of 10%. An Even money shot and a 3/1 shot combined cover 67.5% etc.

    For further info, feel free to read the thread below as to how I work out the betting percentage covered.

    https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby?action=show_static&page=poker_community_forums&plckForumPage=ForumDiscussion&plckDiscussionId=Cat%3ae0fe4c56-4826-4c14-a350-298f784f4e3dForum%3a902ab96e-b209-4e97-96a2-98a6b9a864a8Discussion%3aa18b8047-a54d-49c9-a0b7-cfa14ecfeb34
  • edited May 2017
    ok Stand corrected and this is a Jackpot syndicate anyway so no problems I just thought a chance to win £650000 might be nice for a stake around what we have done last couple of days and their is a place divi which we picked up a few times when the Scoop syndicate was running, interest wained when I left to go on my boat . Sail le Vie

    just like big value I suppose £650000 for 400 appears better than £400 for 10-20k
  • edited May 2017
    oops just realised why Graham wouldn't entertain going for Scoop 6 MONSTER TRICKY RACES. Will shut up now leader

    Have a feeling pot wont go so might be an option when /if it gets an easier week LOL
  • edited May 2017
    its the £2 stake that would be the problem plus the legs are all very hard races to predict. maybe 1 day if we get a few decent cashes we can vote to do the scoop but i think for now its a no go
  • edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE - OFFICIAL THREAD **PLEASE FIND THE UPDATED LEDGER FOLLOWING ON FROM THE 12/05/17 LOSS AT CHESTER ** SHARE DEALINGS ARE NOW FROZEN UNTIL 26TH MAY 2017:
    ok Stand corrected and this is a Jackpot syndicate anyway so no problems I just thought a chance to win £650000 might be nice for a stake around what we have done last couple of days and their is a place divi which we picked up a few times when the Scoop syndicate was running, interest wained when I left to go on my boat . Sail le Vie just like big value I suppose £650000 for 400 appears better than £400 for 10-20k
    Posted by vaigret

    IMO, It's the difference between having a wild punt and having a long term winning strategy (hopefully). I am going for the latter.

    If we ever get a card/rollover/bankroll that allows us to adopt this same strategy for the SCOOP6, all well and good. But I can't see it really.

    Maybe a separate SCOOP6 syndicate is something to consider further down the line, but tbh it would be for the more serious punter I think, as we'd need a very big kitty to adopt the same approach as we do for Jackpots, and that is what I would want to do.

    Regarding the Place aspect of the SCOOP6, if you are considering this on a difficult card, we'd be better to just do a placepot, but no roll overs there obviously. Although I do think there is a way we can get an edge in placepots, but that's a discussion for another day.

    Also with placepots you can do them for 10p lines, or 5p in store, so people can do their own really, no need for a syndicate really, other than the community aspect of it.

    Anyhow for now, we will not be greedy and just keep to the Jackpots.

    Cheers,

    G
  • edited May 2017

    shouldn't have mentioned anything just saw £650000 and thought good idea but when I looked at fields I realised it was a no go. you would have to be  extremely lucky to get it. However if it gets into the millions with smaller fields it might be worth looking at.

    Not suggesting we do for the place part just it does help to get  money back if youjust miss out. When the Scoop 6 syndicate was going, with not so much money/ imput/expertise as we are in this we twice got five out of six and got quite a few place dividends over the time it ran. So agree with comments above but would suggest it not ruled out completelyin exceptional circumstances. 

  • edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE - OFFICIAL THREAD **PLEASE FIND THE UPDATED LEDGER FOLLOWING ON FROM THE 12/05/17 LOSS AT CHESTER ** SHARE DEALINGS ARE NOW FROZEN UNTIL 26TH MAY 2017:
    shouldn't have mentioned anything just saw £650000 and thought good idea but when I looked at fields I realised it was a no go. you would have to be  extremely lucky to get it. However if it gets into the millions with smaller fields it might be worth looking at. Not suggesting we do for the place part just it does help to get  money back if youjust miss out. When the Scoop 6 syndicate was going, with not so much money/ imput/expertise as we are in this we twice got five out of six and got quite a few place dividends over the time it ran. So agree with comments above but would suggest it not ruled out completelyin exceptional circumstances. 
    Posted by vaigret
    Agreed, but it would need to be a very big roll over and comparatively uncompetitive card, scenarios that don't often happen together for the SCOOP 6. Unfortunately.

    Although more likely to get a slightly easier card with the Friday Scoop 6 than the Saturday one. (Tomorrow is ultra tough mind)
  • edited May 2017

    Great work people,sincerely appreciate all the time and effort so many of you are committing to this.


  • edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE - OFFICIAL THREAD **PLEASE FIND THE UPDATED LEDGER FOLLOWING ON FROM THE 11/05/17 RESULTS AT CHESTER ** SHARE DEALINGS ARE NOW FROZEN UNTIL 26TH MAY 2017:
    In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE - OFFICIAL THREAD **PLEASE FIND THE UPDATED LEDGER FOLLOWING ON FROM THE 11/05/17 RESULTS AT CHESTER ** SHARE DEALINGS ARE NOW FROZEN UNTIL 26TH MAY 2017 : Hi Dollie, as I alluded to in my reply to Bearace. I do not expect us to win very often (1 in 12 times), but I do expect the average dividend to be significantly higher than our recent cash, With this in mind, I propose to make a dividend when the share value exceeds £25. The dividend will be a multiple of £5 that will leave the share value between £7.50 and £12.50. Yes this could mean that the one off payments for new members or players that increase their stake is higher than their monthly amount going forward, but this is the lesser of the evils imo, and it also means I can do all that processing between 26th-29th of the month, ready for start of new betting month. When they do make the one-off payment, the next amount will not be due until the 24th of the following month. Lets say we declare a dividend of £20 because the share value is around £30. The process for me will be as follows (Assuming 185 shares): 1) Transfer £3,700 to my current account. (can't make payments direct from Jackpot Syndicate account) 2) Pay ALL members in one go. (not drip drab) 3) Update ledgers etc accordingly. Obviously, it's a lot of work making 24 payments, so I don't want to be doing it all the time for small amounts. As I want to make all the payments in one go, I will need everyone's bank details by the time we do this. HINT, HINT, There is at least 10 of you who's bank details I still do not have. I hope this is acceptable to you and everyone Dollie. Cheers, G P.S. Regarding optimal total number of shares, please read my reply to Bearace.
    Posted by StayOrGo

    Hi Graham,

    I acknowledge and accept your comments in the above post (and your reply to Bearace), but I still have a problem in terms of share value and new members:-

    ·         We are targeting 500 shares, ie 500 at par value £5 = £2500 per month member subscriptions.

    ·         Currently we have 185 shares issued at par value £5 generating £925 per month member subscriptions.

    ·         We are, therefore, seeking to increase the shareholding by 315 shares from new (or existing) members.

    ·         Taking your example above, where the share value is say £10 and this is prior to member subscriptions of £5 per share on 24th of the month, The share value for new members joining on say 26th of the month would be £15, which I believe is too high to get many takers.

    ·         You are unlikely to place jackpot bets any greater than the monthly subscription value in any one month, this would probably be unwise anyway.

    ·         I believe that it would be reasonable to declare a dividend equal to the value of the available funds as at the 23rd of each month and accrue this for future payment to individual shareholders. This is relatively simple to record and something I would be happy to do.

    ·         This would achieve two things:-

    o   Identify a level of return for current shareholders, they know they have something in the bag.

    o   Make the “buy in” for new members far more acceptable as it will be close to the £5 par value and, therefore, make the target shareholding of 500 more realistically achievable.

    As shown by the number of posts on this thread, there has been much interest in this process and I think it would be a shame to put off potential new members with a “buy in” level which may be perceived as too high.

    Just my thoughts.

    Cheers

    Gordon

  • edited May 2017
    Hi Graham,
                Like  Gordon I also have some concerns. I am struggling to get my head round how current shareholders in the syndicate stand when the first month is up. At the moment we have 185 shares @ £5 each with standing orders in place to pay the same amount each month.When the second payment is made do I still have the same number of shares or does that second payment buy extra shares? When new members wish to join they will buy at the current share price -  does this mean that their standing order will be set at that price or will it return to £5 for their second payment?
            This sounds complicated and unwieldy to me . My first solution seems to be much clearer   -  pay out the total fund near the end of the first month and start afresh for the next month. This is in effect making the life of the syndicate  one month .Those members will see a clear return (or loss!) and then rejoin the syndicate along with any new members the following month.With their standing order in place current members will automatically rejoin.By not carrying forward any funds this is more clear cut and easier for members to understand their share in the syndicate.
            I  understand your point about needing more funds to take advantage of opportunities that might arise during the second half of the month but hopefully with new members you will get closer to a working amount with the regular monthly subscription.
           Gordon's solution is along similar lines but seems a little bit more complicated with  exrta work involved in keeping track of who has accured what rather than my suggestion of a fresh start each month.Anyway I think Gordon and I are in agreement although with slightly different approaches.
              Apologies Graham if you ahev already responded to Gordon's post before I have posted mine.
           
  • edited May 2017
    Hi Gordon/Bearace.

    I take your points.

    Can we keep to my suggestion for this month please, and we will see how it pans out in practice.

    If people feel it's not working out then, I will consider changing it.

    I have thought about it a lot, and have a clear understanding in my own mind.

    As always, I am happy to listen to other's thoughts, but lets just give it a go as I originally planned it first, and if people are not happy with it we can change.

    Regarding the 500 shares. It's not so much a target as a cap. Although it probably is the optimal amount.

    PEOPLE CAN REQUEST ADDITIONAL SHARES AND/OR NEW MEMBERS JOIN ON 26TH MAY 2107

     (Please do not post requests before)

    On 25th MAY (Once I receive the standard payments) I will post details surrounding the process for new share requests.

    I will do this as I have always planned for now, and if people are still not happy with how it fits together, then we can consider changing it in subsequent months to something in line with Dollie's suggestion.

    I ensure you that the process will keep the share value static for existing members, so they will not lose out. I understand the rationale behind your proposal Dollie, however I want to keep it simple if possible. As time progresses, I think new members/share changes will occur less, especially if we reach the 500, at which point it will be a closed shop unless someone leaves.

    If the initial share value is not too high, it could be a mute point.

    Cheers,

    G
  • edited May 2017
    Am I being thick or what.

    Surely only new members come in at the start of each month. So keep winnings for each month separate and only to be spent if we want to go for a jackpot in a month when we have run out of the share money. The money left at end of month from the winnings and monthly share money is that months dividend. £5 parts of that go to extre share(s) and rest to cash, only to be paid out three monthly or when someone leaves.

    My Example ME today I think

    I have one share £5 and at mo my share of winnings (I think) is £6.62 and to make it easier (as I cant remember the money we have left for may) say my left over money if we do nothing more in May is  £3.38; at start of June my situation will be

    I will have three shares, my June payment plus the two shares our good work in May has given me .


    Others at the start of June might have 50 shares and some May cash. 

    so on and so on.
     
    Every Six months the  £5 dividends can be paid out if it means we are getting too much in the bankroll ie 3000 shares at £5
     come November(heres hoping)

    This means new members shares will always be £5 and the rest of us for that matter , should give us a nice rolling bank and also allow cash to be paid to people quarterly as we go along. Meaning less work for Graham paying out.

    SORRY GRAHAM DOING THIS  BEFORE YOUR ANSWER ABOVE BUT HOPE IT STILL HELPFUL 

     
  • edited May 2017
    Hi Vaigret and all.

    Yes new members do only come in at the start of the month. (but I need a few days to confirm/receive their payments)

    All will be explained on 25th May. (I am waiting until 25th May, so I can confirm all regular payments have been received and we have a verified share value, before explaining the process)

    Please let me do the process the way I have planned for the first month. See how it works and then we can re-assess.

    So can we please close this discussion topic until then. After that, I promise I will listen fully, but just give me a chance to show you how it pans out in practice.

    It's just the questions being asked will hopefully all become clear at the time.

    Cheers,

    G
  • edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE - OFFICIAL THREAD **PLEASE FIND THE UPDATED LEDGER FOLLOWING ON FROM THE 12/05/17 LOSS AT CHESTER ** SHARE DEALINGS ARE NOW FROZEN UNTIL 26TH MAY 2017:
    Hi Vaigret and all. Yes new members do only come in at the start of the month. (but I need a few days to confirm/receive their payments) All will be explained on 25th May. Please let me do the process the way I have planned for the first month. See how it works and then we can re-assess. So can we please close this discussion topic until then. After that, I promise I will listen fully, but just give me a chance to show you how it pans out in practice. It's just the questions being asked will hopefully all become clear at the time. Cheers, G
    Posted by StayOrGo
    no problem mate trying to make it as easy as poss for you, this must be turning into a full time job . We will have to start paying you soon LOL BIG LOL
  • edited May 2017
    Confirming it is a GO at Ludlow tomorrow. (Sun 14/05/17)

    First Race 2.00pm.

    Final Selections and receipts will be available shortly before then, on the thread in the post above.

    Cheers,

    G
  • edited May 2017
    No good today guys, although a lot of effort from the team, so TY to all those who participated.

    Opening post ledger etc. has been updated.

    Share value is now £3.71

    Cheers,

    G
  • edited May 2017
    The pool was part won today, which means a carry over of £7,209 to tomorrow (that's what we would have won for a 50p line if we managed it today)

    As there is a carry over I will take a cursory glance at tomorrow's potential Jackpot card.

    Cheers,

    G
  • edited May 2017
    Pretty sure it will be either Wetherby or Windsor tomorrow, both of which are tough cards, so we can stand down tomorrow and have a rest. Just one selection tomorrow for those doing NAP's.

    Cheers,

    G
  • edited May 2017
    We have £685.75 left in the kitty, so two (at a push) possible attempts left this month. We may need to choose wisely.

    Certainly not tomorrow anyway.

    Cheers,

    G
  • edited May 2017
    When you get a minute Graham can you send the Totesport screenshots over please.

    Thanks
  • edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE - OFFICIAL THREAD ** NO GOOD AT LUDLOW TODAY (SUN 14TH MAY) ** SHARE DEALINGS ARE NOW FROZEN UNTIL 26TH MAY 2017:
    When you get a minute Graham can you send the Totesport screenshots over please. Thanks
    Posted by Snuffer
    Was doing it as you wrote this. Sent. :=)
  • edited May 2017
    Syndicate Members,

    I have received the screenshots of the Totesport account and can confirm the amended ledger on the opening post is correct and £685.75 is in the betting account.
  • edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE - OFFICIAL THREAD ** ALL PAYMENTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. TY. SHARE DEALINGS ARE NOW FROZEN UNTIL 26TH MAY 2017:
    Had this thought while I was in the bath this morning!     If a situation arose when we had got through the first 5 legs of the jackpot and ,for example,we had say 4 of the  7 runners in the last leg and we knew more or less what we might win with any of our selections  - would  it make sense to back the remaining  3 selections to cover the cost of our perm of even to show a small profit? It would be most likely that the 3 we did not have would be outsiders and these could be backed according to the price so that if any of those 3 won we would cover the cost of our perm  -  of course if they lost we would get the jackpot up with a profit reduced by the amount we bet on the 3 outsiders. If we are talking about hopefully a large dividend the cost of the losing covering bets would not make a lot of difference. These outsiders could be backed on the exchanges at bigger prices than available eleswhere.    For example: We have laid out £500 on our perm and we are through to leg 6 . The remaining 3 that we do not have are available at  10/1  16/1  33/1   We could back them -  £65  @  10/1 ,  £40 @ 16/1 and £20 @ 33/1       That would mean a total outlay of  £500  + the cost of the bets £125  =   £625. So if we got the jackpot up we would lose £125 from our returns but I am sure we would still be happy.If one of the 3 that we did not have in our perm won  we would get back either  £650,£640 or £660  resulting in a profit and lessening the disappointment of losing in the last leg of our jackpot bet.       Of course every situation will be different with regards to the size of our perm, how many runners there are and how many we have backed in the last race -   if it happens to be  a large field it would not be pratical to back say 5 or more horses but if a situation did arise similar to the example I have given then I think it makes a lot of sense to consider this type of insurance.    I was in the bath for quite a long time!               
    Posted by bearace

    Regarding hedging this post by bearace makes perfect sense to me.

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