Phantom's Practice Perms

Phantom66

Oh well that's £25.60 saved.

Phantom66

I will keep a running total of any practice placepot/jackpot attempts

Virtual Jackpots
Attempts	1
Times Paid	0
Times Profit	0
Profit/Loss	-£576.00

Virtual Placepots
Attempts	8
Paid	4
Profit	1
Profit/Loss	-£223.10

Quadpots
Attempts	2
Paid	2
Profit	1
Profit/Loss	-£1.34

Putting alot of time in to the Ascot racing (with mixed results) so I thought I would have a dabble at a Placepot attempt as well.

Keeping it realistically small for me even though I am not backing it.

	22nd June Ascot
£0.10	per line PLACEPOT
TIME	Sel 1	Sel 2	Sel 3	Sel 4
2.30	14 Santry	06 Havana Grey
3.05	11 Order of the Garter	16 Tamleek
3.40	01 Alluringly	09 Naughty or Nice
4.20	01 Big Orange	13 Simple Verse
5.00	14 Son of the Stars	21 Keyser Soze	22 Afaak	30 Maths Prize
5.30	SP FAVOURITE	04 Utah	09 First Nation	18 Never Surrender
	TOTAL LINES	256
	TOTAL COST	£25.60

unknown_username

NO YOU STILL IN WTH SANTRY

Phantom66

Of course I am got confused on commentary...

Down to 128 lines

Phantom66

Still in with 64 lines

TIME	Sel 1	Sel 2	Sel 3	Sel 4
2.30	14 Santry
3.05	11 Order of the Garter
3.40	01 Alluringly	09 Naughty or Nice
4.20	01 Big Orange	13 Simple Verse
5.00	14 Son of the Stars	21 Keyser Soze	22 Afaak	30 Maths Prize
5.30	SP FAVOURITE	04 Utah	09 First Nation	18 Never Surrender
	TOTAL LINES	64

Phantom66

Definitely Busto now

unknown_username

YES I DID ALLURINGLY SO THAT WAS BOUND TO SCOTCH IT

Phantom66

End result down 2 legs (should have been 1 as I backed Tricorn myself but didn't put it in placepot)   22nd June Ascot         £0.10 per line PLACEPOT RESULTS                   TIME Sel 1 Sel 2 Sel 3 Sel 4 Sel 5 2.30 14 Santry         3.05 11 Order of the Garter         3.40           4.20 01 Big Orange         5.00           5.30     09 First Nation    

Phantom66

"Risking" a bit more virtual coinage on a slightly bigger perm today.

	23nd June Ascot
£0.10	per line PLACEPOT	ENTRIES
TIME	Sel 1	Sel 2	Sel 3	Sel 4
2.30	02 - Alpha Centauri	04 - Black Sails	09 - Fairyland	11- Madeline
3.05	02 - Best Solution	04 - Crystal Ocean
3.40	01 - Blue Point	02 - Bound for Nowhere	04 - Harry Angel
4.20	04 - Precieuse	07 - Winter
5.00	04 - Desert Skyline	11 - Stradivarius	12 - Time to Study
5.30	05- Wadigor	06 - Star Storm	17 - Mainstream
	TOTAL LINES	432
	TOTAL COST	£43.20

Phantom66

Virtual sweat on going in to Leg 6...

	22nd June Ascot
£0.10	per line PLACEPOT	RESULTS
TIME	Sel 1	Sel 2	Sel 3	Sel 4
2.30	02 - Alpha Centauri
3.05		04 - Crystal Ocean
3.40	01 - Blue Point		04 - Harry Angel
4.20		07 - Winter
5.00		11 - Stradivarius
5.30	05- Wadigor	06 - Star Storm	17 - Mainstream

MISTY4ME

....ME TOO !!

JACKPOT/PLACEPOT PERM FOR ROYAL ASCOT FRI. 23rd JUNE

2.30:  2 - ALPHA CENTAURI 2nd

 5 - CLEMMIE

3.05:  8 - KHALIDI   (nap)   2nd

 4 - CRYSTAL OCEAN 3rd

3.40:  3 - CARAVAGGIO 1st

 4 - HARRY ANGEL 2nd

 1 - BLUE POINT 3rd

4.20  7 - WINTER 1st

 5 - ROLY POLY 2nd

 4 - PRECIEUSE

5.00  3 - COUNT OCTAVE 2nd

 2 - BELGRAVIA

5.35  6 - STAR STORM

 2 - TOP TUG

11 - MISTIROC

14 - PETITE JACK

16 - SIXTIES GROOVE

17 - MAINSTREAM

432 BETS

GOOD LUCK US....... THO' IT WON'T PAY MUCH !!

Phantom66

Star Storm + Mainstream 1-2 would be nice

MISTY4ME

In Response to Re: Phantom's Practice Perms:

Star Storm + Mainstream 1-2 would be nice
Posted by Phantom66

(:D}

STAR STORM WINNING would make JACKPOT A ROLLOVER

Phantom66

Got there but only 2x10p lines for me.

VWP Misty! 24 lines up.

Phantom66

I see what you mean about hard to win big on these placepots Misty.

I won but I lost - Now I know how Theresa May must feel.

	22nd June Ascot
£0.10	per line PLACEPOT	RESULTS
TIME	Sel 1	Sel 2	Sel 3	Sel 4
2.30	02 - Alpha Centauri
3.05		04 - Crystal Ocean
3.40	01 - Blue Point		04 - Harry Angel
4.20		07 - Winter
5.00		11 - Stradivarius
5.30		06 - Star Storm
	TOTAL LINES LEFT	2
	PROFIT/LOSS	-£33.32
	DIVIDEND/£unit	£49.40
	PAYOUT	£9.88

unknown_username

well done both of you

Phantom66

On the plus side I have saved myself £58.92 by not putting money on these

MISTY4ME

In Response to Re: Phantom's Practice Perms:

Got there but only 2x10p lines for me. VWP Misty! 24 lines up.
Posted by Phantom66

CHEERS MATE....... 

would have got back just over doubled stake on PLACEPOT for 10p's, but lost a lot more on JACKPOT  for 50p's!!

GOOD FUN tho'

Phantom66

In Response to Re: Phantom's Practice Perms:

well done both of you
Posted by vaigret

Well done one of us, mine was a hollow victory as I would have still made a loss.

MISTY4ME

In Response to Re: Phantom's Practice Perms:

In Response to Re: Phantom's Practice Perms : Well done one of us, mine was a hollow victory as I would have still made a loss.
Posted by Phantom66

That's the difficulty with the PLACEPOT, even when you do well you struggle to make money.

Saying that.... isn't that like ALL gambling!!

Great BUZZ tho'

wynne1938

Well done all

Phantom66

Will give a Jackpot a try. Hard today without real bankers but seeing as it is only play money and a big jackpot...

TIME	Sel 1	Sel 2	Sel 3	Sel 4
2.10	01 – BALLINURE	02 – EXXARO	03 – GOLDEN DOYEN	04 – KELVINGROVE
2.40	03 – DRAGON DE LA TOUR	04 – ROMEO IS BLEEDING	07 – ZAMA ZAMA	09 – CODE OF LAW
3.10	01 – DEFINITE FUTURE	02 – FOREVER MY FRIEND	05 – SUCH A LEGEND	06 – MARQUIS OF CARABAS
3.40	04 – SLIM PICKINGS	05 – WISHFUL DREAMING	07 – SURF AND TURF
4.10	02 – HONEY POUND	03 – SAILORS WARN	07 – TOO MANY DIAMONDS
4.40	01 – WELD ARAB	12 – FIDELITY

TOTAL LINES	1152
TOTAL COST	£576.00

Phantom66

Didn't take long to check that one.

Phantom66

Placepot for Brighton. Doubt there will be enough in the pool to make this +EV but it's just for practice.

	27th June Brighton
£0.10	per line PLACEPOT	ENTRIES
TIME	Sel 1	Sel 2	Sel 3
2.15	Holdenhurst	Pranceabootthetoon	Cruel clever cat
2.45	Welsh Inlet	Soaring Spirits	With Approval
3.15	Av a Word	Peking Flyer
3.45	Secret Strategy	Mr Pocket	Sandfrankskipsgo
4.15	Strictly Carter	Noble Deed
4.45	Provoking	Fairy Mist	SP FAV
	TOTAL LINES	324
	TOTAL COST	£32.40

 

Phantom66

Been having a think about combo perms to try and get good coverage weighted towards more likely (or favoured) selections. Above is not in selection priority order but I am thinking if it was, something like below:

e.g.

1,   1,   1,   1,   1,   1         1

12, 12,  1,  12,  1,   12       16

13, 13,  1,  13,  1,   13       16 

1,   12,  12,  1,  12,  1         8

12,  1,   1,  12,  1,  12         8

123,12 ,12,  1,   1   123       36

13,123,  1,   1,  12, 123       36

12, 12,  2, 123,  2,   12       24

Total = 145 lines £14.50

I probably need to play a few tunes on it and each time it would depend on no. runners and shape of each individual race but after a few more practice attempts I might give something like this a try.

Phantom66

Started well with 2, but bust 2nd. Doesn't help when 2 of your 3 selections miss the start.

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: Phantom's Practice Perms:

Been having a think about combo perms to try and get good coverage weighted towards more likely (or favoured) selections. Above is not in selection priority order but I am thinking if it was, something like below: e.g. 1,   1,   1,   1,   1,   1         1 12, 12,  1,  12,  1,   12       16 13, 13,  1,  13,  1,   13       16  1,   12,  12,  1,  12,  1         8 12,  1,   1,  12,  1,  12         8 123,12 ,12,  1,   1   123       36 13,123,  1,   1,  12, 123       36 12, 12,  2, 123,  2,   12       24 Total = 145 lines £14.50 I probably need to play a few tunes on it and each time it would depend on no. runners and shape of each individual race but after a few more practice attempts I might give something like this a try.
Posted by Phantom66

Hi Phantom, I definitely think you are barking up the right type of tree with this concept.

I'm giving myself a bit of a break after all the exertions of the last few racing days, but if you are interested, a bit later, I can post what I consider to be +ev perm structures for Placepots.

It would work under a proviso of splitting each race into a "type" ie:

NOT VERY COMPETITIVE (Just a few fancied runners and short priced favourite)

COMPETITIVE (Fairly open affair, say 3/1, 7/2 fav ish)

VERY COMPETITIVE (Usually races where the favourite is > 5/1)

I often find that the best type of cards for Placepots have around two of each of the above category.

Let me know if you are interested in my perm structures for Placepots and I will document them and post on this thread.

Cheers,

G

Phantom66

Definitely up for that G.

StayOrGo

Hi P66.

I took a look at the Carlisle card and it sets up nice to be a test case, so please see spreadsheet below: I will add my horses for the A's, B's, C's etc. shortly

Please bear in mind that I am doing this purely as a statistical exercise, I haven't looked at a single piece of horse form, I am making my selections based upon the proviso that each horses odds accurately reflect it's chance.

In reality you would assess your opinion of their chances, although I do actually believe that a profit can be made without even looking at any form. (I am sure that statement will meet with some criticism)

Each perm is 72 lines, so at 10p would be £7.20 * 6 = £43.20 or at 5p (in shop) would cost £21.60

 

LEG	RUNNERS	ODDS AT FORE	CLASS	PERM A	PERM B	PERM C	PERM D	PERM E	PERM F
2.00	10	7/2,4,9/2,11/2,8/1,9/1	COMPETITIVE	BC	ACD	BCD	AB	A	ABC
2.30	8	5/2,3,9/2,8,8,9	NOT COMP	A	B	AC	ABC	BC	ABD
3.00	14 (HC)	9/2,5,11/2,8,10,11,12,14,14	VERY COMP	ABDF	BC	AB	CD	ADE	AC
3.30	17 (H/C)	6,7,7,9,10,10,12,14,14,16,16	VERY COMP	BCE	AD	AC	ABF	BD	AB
4.00	10	15/8,10/3,15/2,8,11	NOT COMP	A	AB	A	AC	AB	A
4.30	10 (HC)	3/1,9/2,6/1,7/1,8/1	COMPETITIVE	BCD	ABE	ABC	A	AC	AB

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

Here is my A,B.C,D,E and F's. (Based solely on their odds/market position without looking at any form). 

AMENDED AT 1.55PM based on market moves:

LEG	HORSE A	HORSE B	HORSE C	HORSE D	HORSE E	HORSE F
2.00	05 – TOUGH REMEDY 3/1	01 – JOHN KIRKUP 7/2	01 -TEMBER 5/1	07 – AQUADABRA 11/2
2.30	01 – OUR KID 11/4	09 – BIRDETTE 4/1	07 – STAR OF ZAAM 5/1	02 – BYRON'S CHOICE 11/2
3.00	01 – I AM NOT HERE 5/1	09 – MUKHAYYAM 6/1	04 – CHANCERY 11/1	02 – DANCE KING 8/1	07 – WEST DRIVE 6/1	13 – PANKO 12/1
3.30	09 – SILVERY MOON 7/1	02 – KING'S PAVILION 7/1	05 – ROUSAYAN 9/1	03 – GORING 10/1	15 – CARNAGEO 7/1	10 – PENSAX BOY 12/1
4.00	06 – BLETCHLEY 13/8	07 – ELUSIVE BEAUTY 5/1	08 – ISABEL'S ON IT 13/2
4.30	09 – THE STALKING MOON 3/1	04 – FAVOURITE ROYAL 7/2	03 – ENJOY LIFE 11/2	08 – WHATSTHEMESSAGE 9/1	05 – QUICK AND QUIRKY 10/1

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

Please note that in the "VERY COMPETITIVE" races, I have moved away from the first few in the betting.

I'm hoping to get the "RP Favourites", the likes of WEST DRIVE (5/1 Fav) beat in the 3.00PM and CARNAGIO (6/1 Fav), GEORGIAN BAY (7/1 Joint 2nd Fav) and GORING (7/1 Joint 2nd Fav) beat in the 3.30PM.

This is because they are likely to be over-represented in the pool, while the 8/1 to 14/1 bracket are likely to be under-represented.

Of course when the "RP Favourites" DO place in these tough handicaps, it lowers the dividend AND I won't have them in my perm so it's a double negative, but if they do get beat, it is a double positive, as one is likely to still be in where a lot of people would have gone out, which means you give yourself the potential to win when it's a high dividend.

We'll see how it goes. I will amend would be selections before the off, based on non-runners and market moves, but I won't look at any form. I will the do a separate list of A's B's and C's (using same perm strategy) but using people's NAP selections. So it will be a fun exercise of pure statistics v form analysis/statistics combo.

Hope this is of use anyway.

Cheers,

G