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There is a part 2 somewhere too.
https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby?action=show_static&page=poker_community_blog&plckBlogId=Blog:984622ff-5ae6-4357-a087-da942593ca53&plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&userId=984622ff-5ae6-4357-a087-da942593ca53&plckPostId=Blog%3a984622ff-5ae6-4357-a087-da942593ca53Post%3a59e3d803-95b5-44f6-8b71-0a5177ebf6f0&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest
Here's my analysis of the maths when all three of us get stacks in;
35.29% of the time I scoop the 43,125 pot, 35.29% x 43,125 = +15,218
8.71% of the time I chop the 43,125 pot 2 ways, 8.71% x (43,125/2) = +1,878
56% of the time I lose my 12,265 chip shove and bust, 56% x -12,265 = -6,868
+15,218
+1,878
-6,868
-----------
+10,228
So my shove shows a profit of 10,228 chips on average.
A fold guarantees I have 12,265 chips at the start of the next hand, a shove gives me 22,493 chips on average at the start of the next hand. After running the numbers I'm now totally satisfied that my play was correct, in fact it was a great spot that I'd jump to take every single time.
Closing Balances; Cash £2.28, Poker Points 635
(no change today)
It was just the Omaha freeroll for me again today. I enjoyed an easy start and soon climbed to 3x starting stack courtesy of poor players making bad decisions.
Life got tougher in the mid-stages when a very aggressive player with a big stack got moved to my table. Moments before the add-on break I busted when I decided to go double or bust with my last 9BB in a HU pot. The action was limped to my 6K97 on the BB and the flop came down 86K. It was my intention to check/raise the flop and play for stacks, but disappointingly the villain checked back. So I chose to lead and commit my stack as a big favourite (82.5% equity) on the Q turn, but my 2 pairs and open-ender failed to hold against the big stack’s A735 when he spiked a 4 on the river to complete an unlikely gutshot.
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancemikeky265 Small blind 300.00 300.00 1230.00 GaryQQQ Big blind 600.00 900.00 5064.55 Your hole cards 6 K 9 7 chiptayka1 Fold blue12345 Fold Killswitch Call 600.00 1500.00 17065.00 TCSMINIMAR Fold mikeky265 Fold GaryQQQ Check Flop 8 6 K GaryQQQ Check Killswitch Check Turn Q GaryQQQ Bet 750.00 2250.00 4314.55 Killswitch Call 750.00 3000.00 16315.00 River 4 GaryQQQ Bet 1500.00 4500.00 2814.55 Killswitch Raise 7500.00 12000.00 8815.00 GaryQQQ All-in 2814.55 14814.55 0.00 Killswitch Unmatched bet 3185.45 11629.10 12000.45 GaryQQQ Show 6 K 9 7 Killswitch Show A 7 3 5 Killswitch Win Straight to the 8 11629.10 23629.55
Closing Balances; Cash £2.70 Poker Points 610
Up 42p today
My only game today was the 12-30pm Freeroll. I finished 19th/276 (+33 rebuys/add-ons) for a small prize of 42p.
42p is very welcome, though obviously I’d have preferred more. My exit came when I found myself with Q8o on the BB with only 5BB left (half of average) before posting the blind. A big stack playing nearly every pot limped from UTG and everybody else folded. When the flop came down QT7r my chips were always going in one way or another. I check/shoved; he called and turned over T7o. I had no fold equity, so my demise had pretty much been decided once the deck had been shuffled.
A regular annoyance in these Freerolls is seeing ‘away’ players sit out all the way to the bubble. It’s frustrating when the rest of the field are waiting for them to bust only to see them keep surviving their auto all-ins with a series of unlikely doubles, trebles and chops. Three made it to the bubble today. In my opinion their cards should be killed when dealt, as they would in a live game, ie they cannot win a pot. One of the away players even went deeper than me in this tournament; he finished in 17th place for 50p with zero participation.
You are right to get it in here but when you hit top set you can only make full house by the board paring so your A or 7 are not outs.
You also had a Q to split the pot but yeah I am getting it in here all day long.
Same to you benc. Best of luck to you too. Your results so far are highly impressive, I dabble in hyper HUs for fun myself sometimes, so I know how hard it is to beat the rake by any significant amount. I'm currently grinding out a sign-up bonus on another site by playing HU Hypers, 75% of the way there at the moment.
Closing Balances; Cash £3.20 Poker Points 585
Up 50p today
For the second day in a row I went on a deep run in the 12-30pm Freeroll, though it ended in a somewhat disappointing 14th/263 (+67 rebuys/add-ons) placing for a 50p prize.
A huge 4-way all-in pot close to the bubble propelled me close to the top of the field. I raised to 2.3BB from UTG with pocket KK, then amazingly three players behind me shoved. I half-expected to see pocket AA, so was very happy to find myself facing KQ, KTs and 99, not a single over-card between them. Pocket 99 won the main pot with a straight, but crucially he was the shortest of those all-in by quite some way, I collected all the side-pots to move into the top 5.
My exit came in a cruel cooler when I was sitting on 10BBs, average at the time due to the very fast structure. I managed to run my pocket QQ into pocket KK at a 5-handed table. While the 50p prize is welcome and adds to my balance it was a frustrating finishing position, I had my eye on the bigger money at the final table. If I get through all the points with nothing more than a few min-cashes to show for my efforts life is going to be tough when I have to playing with the money.
Running QQ into KK at such a crucial stage may seem unfortunate, however in my eyes I did no more than lose a flip.
You may be thinking ‘a flip? QQ v KK isn’t a flip; you lost an 80/20 mate’. While that is true, I would rather take this view; if the deck is going to spit out KK and QQ when stacks are shallow then all the chips are going in no matter what. The flip occurs when the cards are dealt. I lost the flip when I was the player dealt QQ, my opponent won the flip when he was dealt the KK. Skill didn’t come into it, exactly the same thing would have happened if the pairs were dealt the other way round, it was 50/50 who got what.
'My account' as it stands today;
http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/8234/myacc1501.jpg
Watch this space. My present thinking is that I might dabble in DYMs when I have 10 buyins. I know I have 10 buy-ins for 30p already, but the trouble is the 30p games all have hyper-turbo 2 minute levels. When you combine that with the 20% rake I think they're almost certainly unbeatable.
I'd rather wait until I have 10 buyins for 60p games. They run with a standard structure, which means any skill edge is much more likely to prevail, though it'll still be difficult to beat the 20% rake. The £1.15 games are even more attractive because the rake drops to 15%.
I've played in 636 £1.15 DYMs here on Sky with an ROI of 7.7%. If I can get into them with 10 buy-ins and avoid a downswing that might be good enough to get the ball rolling.
In 60p games I've run at -0.8%, undoubtedly due in part to the extra rake, also many of my games in those have been level 1 gambles in the DYM laddering competition, if I took them all seriously I should do a bit better.
Yes, I do have that book. I've had volumes I and II for about 3 years, they are by far the best tournament poker books I've ever read. Volume III came out recently, I got my copy for Christmas but haven't got round to reading it yet.
Closing Balances; Cash £3.20 Poker Points 560
No change today
I entered the 10-00am Freeroll today without success. I made it to the usual late stages shallow stack push/fold phase, but came unstuck when I jammed my short stack with Td7d into AQo in the blinds. The three diamonds on the flop looked pretty good for me, but the fourth diamond dealt on the turn gave my caller a higher flush.
Closing Balances; £3.20 Poker Points 535
No change today
Drew another blank today. I played in the 12-30pm Freeroll, though the cards weren’t falling my way and I couldn’t win a pot no matter how hard I tried. My exit summed it up pretty well; when down to 10BB I jammed KJ over a min-raise, both of my callers held A5o, they both made a full house as the board ran-out xAAx5.
With nearly half my points gone and only £3.20 in the bank this hasn't exactly been the best of starts so far.
Closing Balances; £3.20 Poker Points 510
No change today
Today I only played one hand on Sky Poker!
In the 12-30pm Freeroll I was dealt AsKs on the BB in the very first hand and got shoved on. You see wild players in these games happy to gamble with any two cards right from the off. AKs is ahead of an open shove from an unknown, so I made the call. Unfortunately I lost a race against a pair.
I skipped the extra ‘Freezing Freeroll’ today due to the large field and 50 point entry fee. I also decided to skip the 4-00pm tournament. The prize pool was doubled, however the field was more than double what it attracts on a regular day, so overall it wasn't good value for my precious poker points. I’ll be back tomorrow for a crack at the Omaha Freeroll.With hindsight I wish I’d reluctantly laid it down and waited for a lower variance spot to get my stack in. Mind you, there's also another way to look at it; if you're going to bust out in a race before the bubble you might as well get it over and done with in the first hand, it's far less painful than playing for an hour before losing your flip.
Closing Balances; £3.20 Poker Points 490
No change today
No luck today, I entered two 10 point freerolls without success.
First up I tried the hyper-turbo £25 NLHE Freeroll at 6-45am, this being the first time I have ever played a tournament on my iPhone at work. I decided to enter because I noticed saw 77 players were already registered at 2-00am. My assumption was that most of those would be sitting out by 6-45 and not many would be left competing for the money. As it was there were two away players at my table and four playing. I was toast in level 3 after flopping two pairs against middle set.
My second game was the 2-00pm Omaha Freeroll. I enjoyed a superb start with a full treble-up in the first orbit. I flopped the nuts with 56 in my hand and 478r on the flop, then held-up against two players prepared to play for all their chips with inferior holdings.
A mistake ruined my chances in the mid-stages. I got my chips in on the turn with 6Txx in my hand and 8579r on the board. My aggressive opponent was the only other big stack at the table, both of us on more than double the average. He held TJ, so I was only drawing to only three outs for a chop. I was angry at myself for making a stupid error in the heat of the moment and throwing away a great chance of a deep run.
Note to self; less haste in Omaha tournaments, make sure you have the stone-cold nuts before putting your entire 40BB stack in the middle.
How not to play Omaha, I donate my stack;
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceGaryQQQ Small blind 150.00 150.00 11835.00 xdionnex Big blind 300.00 450.00 1600.00 Your hole cards 4 A 10 6 STILETTO Call 300.00 750.00 3905.00 manguwalia Call 300.00 1050.00 11285.00 _Morfeous_ Fold gooligan Fold GaryQQQ Call 150.00 1200.00 11685.00 xdionnex Check Flop 8 5 7 GaryQQQ Check xdionnex Check STILETTO Check manguwalia Bet 1200.00 2400.00 10085.00 GaryQQQ Call 1200.00 3600.00 10485.00 xdionnex Fold STILETTO Fold Turn 9 GaryQQQ Bet 2700.00 6300.00 7785.00 manguwalia All-in 10085.00 16385.00 0.00 GaryQQQ All-in 7785.00 24170.00 0.00 GaryQQQ Unmatched bet 400.00 23770.00 400.00 GaryQQQ Show 4 A 10 6 manguwalia Show 10 8 J 4 River 9 manguwalia Win Straight to the Jack 23770.00 23770.00
Closing Balances; Cash £5.70 Poker Points 455
Up £2.50 today
The first of my two games today was the 12-30pm £100 Freezing Freeroll. Negotiating a field of 523 wild entrants plus their 148 rebuys and add-ons with my one entry isn’t exactly easy, but I managed to make it to bubble, in part courtesy of a late double when I 3-bet shoved my pocket sixes into an openers K9s and won the flip.
Around 20 spots from the money I made a pleasing lay down. With AK on the button and 25BB to play with I flatted an UTG min-raise, not wanting to 3-bet and maybe be forced to flip for my tournament life. The BB completed so three of us saw the flop. The flop came down 66A. The BB donk-jammed and the UTG player, who had me covered, called. I considered it far too likely one of them held trip 6s to play for my stack. My decision was correct; the BB doubled off the UTG opener with his 65o beating AJo.
Post bubble play was a rollercoaster ride with luck swinging both ways. Firstly I sucked out to double with AJ>AK aipf. Then lost a huge pot with AK<A7 aipf that could have launched me into the top five at the time. When down to two tables and all stacks below 10BB I was so short I was forced to shove any two cards from the SB into the BB. My jack-high didn’t improve against pocket tens and I busted in 8th for a prize of £2.50.
I have mixed feeling about the result. To finish 8th of 671 buy-ins for only £2.50 is somewhat frustrating, I had my eye on the £25 for the winner. However, I have to consider that £2.50 is my biggest win to date and it almost doubles my cash balance.
The Omaha Freeroll didn’t get much of my attention for the first hour because my concentration was focussed on the Freezing Freeroll and a deep tournament run on another site. I fell short of the money in 128th/595(+142 r/a) after getting my stack in on a very good flop but failing to either improve or swerve a flush draw.