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total so far: +£52.36
my total today finished in a unusual fasion
profit and losses per table were 11 profits and 13 losses but luckily with a profit of £8.22 and £10.20 on two of the tables i still was in profit so overall today i got £45.25 profit and losses came to £30.11 so my winnings finished on £15.14
friday was a very small session and TBH i shouldn't have bothered so in the end i lost 9.49 on friday.
It's an example to show how massive an effect just a tiny change from your actual EV can create. It's a very basic example, assuming we play down to the river all the time and making a flush will win the hand but it's just designed to show the possible swings.
Imagine over the course of a week you flop 100 flush draws and you're opponents also flop 100 flush draws.
Let's assume we always play down to the river, this means we should both make around 33 flushes (and win them pots)
Imagine we are running just a tiny bit under EV and only make the flush 25 times, then imagine our opponents are running a tiny bit better than EV and make 40 flushes in that time.
That tiny difference has caused us to lose 15 pots more than we would expect to. An average pot at 4NL is say £1.20 so just over the course of 1 week, that's £18 you've lost more than you can expect to long term, and that's just ONE of a million possible situations in poker like 'do we/they flop a set more/less than expected in a given session/week' etc etc.
In summary, most people vastly underestimate how massive a difference variance can make.
yes it's so east to get results oriantated each session,and like you've said just a little swing here and there can and does make a massive impact on just 1 session.
i guess i'll have to adjust to it,and try not to let it get to me too much. lol
thanks again mate
dev
won £7.74
down £17.05 this month.
sounds better than -30 lol
2 tables 4 hrs
happy with how i played and getting the W.
clawing it back,slowly.
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dev
after a good start to the week i suffered heavy since having the break off after loosing money friday and making losses on more table that winning saturday today was the worst of all with losses of 18.96 because my strong hands just didn't seem to ever get much unless i was shoving with the draws.
over the whole week i my outcome is +£15
Been a while since i posted up, i'm only going to be playing a maximum of 1 hour at cash a day over the next while, i was spending to much time playing and not enjoying it as much -))
Yesterday i lost £7.80 playing cash
Today i made about £3
Total Minus £4.80 (cash 2p 4p)
I've been playing a few BH and on the transaction history it moves the cash results off the screen, how do you check exactly whats been won or lost at cash?
then show my complete,change to poker activity from the last 24 hours,change to week,etc..
press quick history search
and all your poker results will come up
all tables come up..
cash tables
tournament
money out column is how much you have paid in for that table (bit confusing)
money in column is how much you have won for that table
so
ex; money in £11.60 money out £4.12 you have won £7.48 from that table
hope that helps
dev
ps, i just have a diary and know my b/roll before each session,then if i'm only playing cash for example,
i just check my b/roll after each session and know how much i've won/lost. simple
A profits a profit lol
started off well this morning but then things turn round as the evening it was much harder to decided weather to call or not.
lost £2.25 9 tables
tuesday
won £7.28 9 tables (down £12.02 this month)
ran pretty bad y'day so happy with small loss
better tonight,played aggressive and raising whenever possible,still not perfect poker,but getting there...slowly.
also playing 9 tables,feels comfortable,so will continue as long as the losses don't get to big.
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dev
Good fold:D
yes i remember the hand,i had ace as you say.(can't remember kicker,prob K)
i thought you must have house,or if you were bluffing,well played.
i've learnt that a bad fold is better than a bad call,and saves you money in the long run,at nl4 anyway.
i've called so many times like in that situation,and more often than not i'm behind.
dev
Folding AK on AAx, that's respect Larson
alarm bells to start with...pot bet from nowhere
i'm behind to a6 a2 a7 aj aq ak 66 22 77 that's a lot of hands.
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i've invested £1.10
i'm now being asked to risk £2.60 to win £4.10 effective
i'm behind to 9 hands,(which of course i hadn't calculated at the time,but i knew it was quite a few.)
i felt fold was best option and if my good friend was bluffing..well played to him.
dev
Larson posted it in the clinic and I've given my thoughts. I don't think he should ever have most of the hands that beat you. He probably 3bets AJ+ so we can probably rule out them 3 hands. He probably doesn't call the flop with 22, or 2 streets with 77, so we can probably knock 2 more hands off the list.
That takes us down to only 4 hands he should have that beat us, and he does love a good bluff.
Posted by devonfish5
I need to print this on a large sheet of paper and repeat 20 times like a Buddhist chant surrounded by joss sticks and tinkling bells, before I start a session.
So many times lately I get a straight or a flush the river pairs the board and I call the shove screaming "I know you're bluffing....................oh sh *t !
I got lucky in this hand, i hut my full house on the river.
Brilliant fold!
Maybe i should have checked or shoved on the river, if i shove you possibly call?? It looks so much like a bluff.
that's what i mean about 'NOT PLAYING PERFECT POKER' mate.
playing 9 tables,as i was just occasionally i would forget the new 'golden rule' of not raising 3x or more,but at least i did put in a 2x raise here. lol
you say he SHOULDN'T have most of the hands that beat me ,but you have to remember this is nl4 not nl20 or nl30 which lets be honest is another world,as i'm sure you know. lol
i've not yet looked at the hand in poker clinic so will be interested in what lasson had. lol think larson himself has said he could have checked the river ,which i think he should as suddenly going from ch ch to pot bet,smelt fishy to me.
i'm a believer of keeping the same line on each street as any big change made,like hear is not optimal play.
as it goes,had larson checked the river i would have probably checked as i would have been concerned as to what he was calling my previous bets with.
i'm also aware that he could have been bluffing there,but as i'm sure he knows me and my game quite well
he must have been a little concerned that i could have had the f/house,so i took that into consideration,very quickly,and gave him the benefit of the doubt.
as i've also said,i'm only losing £1.10 effective here which was another factor.
i've learnt it's better to back down from marginal situations all be it reluctantly...lose the battle and hopefully stay alive and win the war,ie,come out the session winning.
that's not to say i'd fold here every time to every player, that would be a weakness,but just occasionally as here,it felt right,so i did.
dev
yes i think the shove would have looked more of a bluff than the pot bet,but against you i would have folded anyway.
i would have just checked the river had you checked so it wouldn't have made any difference i'm afraid. lol
good play though by you i thought. i'm not 'tight old devonfish' for nothing lol
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dev
ps; lets go to poker clinic and find out what you really had. lol
plenty of practise at losing...
that helps!! lol
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dev
Posted by clubhammer[/QUOTE
i'ts taken me some time to learn that mate,but i've found it to be true.
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dev
You should not fold, if oppo is limp/calling rag aces versus you then it's good for you long term
You have oppo drawing to 3 outs most of the time
Also LARSON maybe c/r river is probably better or open shoving - and Dev don't ever check behind on river you lose so much value
i agree with what you are saying mate,and most of the time i would call here.
but on this occasion against this player something inside was telling me to fold.
maybe it was partly due to the line larson took ch ch pot bet,i don't know,but it smelt fishy to me anyway,so i folded.
so many times here in the past and with other hands similar to this i would have made the call,only to see myself beaten.
at nl4 most times here most players in this spot will have you beat..not all.
i have notes on dozens of players and that also determines my decisions on all important plays.
i'm really trying to crack this cash game this year,and yes i'm making plenty of mistakes.
(why do you think i've dropped back to nl4 from nl10. lol)
looking back at this hand,i can see mistakes by me,...
should i even be playing A 10 in this spot
should i have raised bigger p/flop
etc, etc.
i am trying though,and am trying to take on board everones comments,and very much appreciate them.
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dev