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The ramblings of a young man (gazza127 diary)

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Comments

  • LARSON7LARSON7
    edited August 2013
    Gl Bring it down, bank roll sorted lol

    I'll prob play a few mtts tonight, i'll drop by to see how you are doing.
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: The ramblings of a young man (gazza127 diary):
    Just got into the Roller for £12.  Dont normally do SATs but decided id give it a go rather than commiting a whole heap of the bank roll to one tournament.  Pretty pleased I got in for cheap.  Takes the pressure off a bit when playing when you know what youre playing with is infact within a decent BR - so looking forward to that later. It all came down to one flip really.  JJ />AK vs Aussie09 for the chip lead on the FT.  Held.  Different story in the 5k BH Sat.  Top 4 got seats into the semi.  I was sitting 6/8.  Picked up AK.  Button shoved on me.  I called.  BB called too.  AK v KQ v J10.  4 card flush for the KQ took the pot to him and I was done for.  Might try again in a bit as Id quite like to play the 110 bh but its waaaaaaayyyy out of my BR.... although that hasnt stopped me before....
    Posted by gazza127
    Lets not forget the final table flip you won vs me ;)

    I want 10% please.
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: The ramblings of a young man (gazza127 diary):
    In Response to Re: The ramblings of a young man (gazza127 diary) : Lets not forget the final table flip you won vs me ;) I want 10% please.
    Posted by hhyftrftdr
    Ah yes.  Sorry about that. Lol.  10%?  How about 1% and a curly wurly?  Deal?
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: The ramblings of a young man (gazza127 diary):
    Gl Bring it down, bank roll sorted lol I'll prob play a few mtts tonight, i'll drop by to see how you are doing.
    Posted by LARSON7
    Ty Larson. Gl in yours tonight too.  Just qualified for the 5k BH Semi final.... so heres hoping i can get into that for a tenner total.  That'd be nice.
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    Out Out Out Out.  Called an awful all in.  Although having seen what happened in the hand before you wouldnt blame me for thinking he'd overplayed a single pair.
    gazza127 Small blind   20.00 20.00 5065.00
    kyp1961 Big blind   40.00 60.00 4085.00
      Your hole cards
    • J
    • J
    		     
    GBD301 Fold        
    lecksville Raise   120.00 180.00 3135.00
    dylan07 Fold        
    LuckyLast Fold        
    gazza127 Raise   340.00 520.00 4725.00
    kyp1961 Fold        
    lecksville Call   240.00 760.00 2895.00
    Flop
       
    • 10
    • 2
    • 8
    		     
    gazza127 Bet   440.00 1200.00 4285.00
    lecksville Call   440.00 1640.00 2455.00
    Turn
       
    • 6
    		     
    gazza127 Bet   840.00 2480.00 3445.00
    lecksville All-in   2455.00 4935.00 0.00
    gazza127 Call   1615.00 6550.00 1830.00
    gazza127 Show
    • J
    • J
    		     
    lecksville Show
    • 4
    • 9
    		     
    River
       
    • 5
    		     
    lecksville Win Flush to the 9 6550.00   6550.00
    Just look at the hand he played to see why I called.  But yeah.  Definitely should have folded anyway.
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited August 2013
    Good luck Jonny boy you should pi ss it ;')

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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: The ramblings of a young man (gazza127 diary):
    Good luck Jonny boy you should pi ss it ;')
    Posted by j3ono
    Lol thanks j3ono.  Things are going steady at the minute...
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    Right as i work in football/betting I feel like I should give out some advice to the kind people who bother to read my diary.  So here goes.

    My top 10 tips for betting

    Tip 1:

    Research over the past year has shown that the best ROI on bets in the 2012/13 season come at odds at 1.7 -2.5 (singles).  As a rule of thumb when betting on singles, you really want to be avoiding odds of less than 1.5 at all costs - its simply not worth it.  The risk to reward ratio isnt there.  If you are betting at odds of 1.5 or lower you have to win 67% of your bets just to break even at best.  Similarly, if the odds are above 2.5 on a single... its usually over 2.5 for good reason - although there are some cases where the bookies have overpriced the match, but you'd have to do some reasearch into that to find out why.

    Summary - Find odds of roughly 1.7 -2.5 to achieve max ROI


    Tip 2:

    If you can't find a decent bet at the weekend between the stated odds  E.g. All games have a heavy favourite like Man Utd at home to Crystal Palace, giving odds of like 1.3, it's a massive incentive to use Asian Handicap to increase your odds.  If you think that Man Utd are going to win by two goals or more then you can bet on Man Utd AH-1.5 at much higher odds than an outright pick.  Similarly if you think Crystal Palace are going to put up a stern defence but still may lose, but not by more than 1, then pick Crystal Palace AH +1.5.  In this case you win your bet if Crystal Palace win, draw and lose by one goal... still most likely at decent odds.
    How to pick between the two?  Well I tend to go by if the underdog is at home i use +AH on them.  If the favourite is a home I use -AH on them.

    Summary - Use Asian Handicap increase odds on a selection or increase chances of winning


    Tip 3:

    Bet in play.  If you have placed a bet on Man Utd winning at evens and have stuck a tenner on, and they score first.  Either bet on opposition win/draw at reduced stake or Man Utd clean sheet (depends which odds are better) to cover your stake.  Theres nothing more irritating than your team leading for 80mins then throwing it away at the death so your bet loses.

    Summary - Use in-play markets to either reduce loses or increase profits


    Tip 4:

    Avoid Cup games.  Just dont do it!  There is next to no value in the market as the favourites tend to be so short.  Even if you do decide to back the favourites at AH-2 or something, they might field a weaker team and lose to the underdog.  There is some argument to back underdogs at +AH as there is some value there but cup games are just too unpredictable to know whats going to happen.  E.g. Wigan won the FA Cup last season and got relegated.  Work that one out.

    Summary - Avoid cup competitions - they are almost always -ev


    Tip 5:

    Trebles.  These are a brilliant little way to make money.  Pick 3 selections of odds of roughly 1.7-2.5 and get fantastic odds on a payback.  My average odds on a treble is about 5/1 - this means you only have to win about 20% to break even.  There is no point in picking 10 teams at odds of 1.2 each and sticking them into an accumulator - 95% of the time one team will let you down.  Three teams at slightly higher odds reduces the risk but increases the reward.  Good times.

    Summary - Trebles.... not 10-folds


    Tip 6:

    There are some markets which mean the same thing.  Im talking goals over/under compared to goal line (the asian handicap of goals).... and the odds tend to differ!

    Examples - Over-Under and goals/goalline, AH0 and draw no bet.

    Summary - Do a little research on the markets - theres extra value!


    Tip 7:

    Don't get gready.  This is two-fold - Don't stick in too many selections in an accumulator "because the payout wasnt high enough", and dont bet more than 5-10% of your betting balance at any given time.  Its much like poker.... keep a steady BR and the pounds will look after themselves.

    Summary - BR management


    Tip 8:

    Consider the influence of teams travelling abroad for cup competitions, suspensions, injuries etc etc.  When Chelsea have just travelled Turkey on a wednesday and have endured extra-time and penalties - perhaps its a great time to back Everton at home with a +AH against a fatigued Chelsea side.

    Summary - One game influences another.


    Tip 9:

    This is an important one.  Is the team playing home or away?  I'll take Sevilla as an example.  Last season they were incredible at home, winning the vast majority of games.  Away from home.... I probably would have done better by myself.  I remember the bookies had priced Sevilla as favourites away from home one day.... I backed the oppo win/draw and the Sevilla went to lose the game in spectacular fashion.

    Summary - Bookies dont always tend to consider home v away factors.


    Tip 10:

    Ignore all markets apart from outright winner... over/under goals, BTTS and AH before a game.  Ok, il admit i'll put a scorecast on once in a while for a laugh but these very rarely come in... and there is no way to cover a bet like that in play.  Half time advert - Bale to score next? IGNORE. 

    Summary - Be sensible if you want to make money.


    Hope that helps guys
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    And for those who are even remotely interested....

    My initial BR was £300.... blew it... deposited £300 more....

    BR now £950 as sharkscope doesnt include SPT winnings and a bit of cash.

    Withdrawing £300 so i can almost start afresh.

    Current BR £651.25.... Profit of £351.25

    Its been a horrid 3 months but hopefully im starting to come out of it.
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  • LARSON7LARSON7
    edited August 2013
    Well done on the profit, nice one.

    You are doing really well and playing well.

    Bank roll for gambling lol

    I don't gamble that much, just a few quid at the weekend for fun, nout serious.

    But with this Skybet promo, going to take 3 teams at odds of just over 5-1.

    With the free bet, I'll prob stick it on 1 team at evensish, or 2 teams at 2 or 3-1.

    Just a bit of fun!
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    Cheers Larson.

    I may or may not have accidentally played an omaha HU game.

    0 clue what I was doing - i dont even know the rules.... However I 'think' I had a bad beat to win it... i'll never know for sure - bit like the ending of LOST.  Anyway... I went on to lose after about half an hour - surprised i lasted that long.  I just bet when he didnt... seemed to work for a long period until he realised i didnt know what I was doing.

    O well... twoz only a pound as i clicked on not only the wrong format of the game...but the wrong level.

    Nice one gaz.
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    Things that put me on tilt:

    People who play one heads up game... donk my aces first hand then decline rematch as soon as offered.
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    Eurgh.  Just played a load of HU games.

    Really struggled against one particular villain.  Checked his sharkscope prior.... simply awful so I thought he was there for the taking... yet somehow he managed to hit every flop for about 20 consecutive HU games.  I just couldnt win a hand against him.

    Id flop top pair... he'd jam on a dry board... id call and he'd have two over cards... and hit - this happened at least 2/3 times for the game which really started to irritate the hell out of me.  I decided to cut my loses and stop playing him and move up to the £11 HU games to play a different opponent.  He followed me there!  However things went a bit differently... I kind of sussed his game out, let him bluff the hell out of me and snap him off with any semi decent hand - got the vast majority of my money back and then he left - which I actually cheered at. lol.

    Won a fair bit against another oppo so finished about £35-40 up on HU this evening but it wasnt what id call easy!
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    Nice small bink on the sly at work.

    gazza127380001£28.50


    Did I say work?! shhhhh.
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    Free bet placed for this weekend (totally ignoring the league cup RE my earlier betting guide)

    Blackpool v Barnsley - 8/11
    Brighton v Derby - 10/11
    Watford v Bournemouth - 4/6

    Odds of around 5/1 so nothing mega but hoping to add a little bit to the roll.

    I will have to look at another 5/1 acca for this weekend to qualify for next weeks free bet.  Bundesliga is looking like a possibility.
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    Despite this...
    jakally Small blind   30.00 30.00 4610.00
    gez_bear Big blind   60.00 90.00 1157.50
      Your hole cards
    • A
    • K
    		     
    gazza127 Raise   180.00 270.00 1615.00
    DOUBLESNO7 Fold        
    joesman1 All-in   40.00 310.00 0.00
    albania Call   180.00 490.00 3910.00
    jakally Fold        
    gez_bear Call   120.00 610.00 1037.50
    Flop
       
    • 8
    • K
    • 6
    		     
    gez_bear Bet   240.00 850.00 797.50
    gazza127 Raise   1057.50 1907.50 557.50
    albania Fold        
    gez_bear All-in   797.50 2705.00 0.00
    gazza127 Unmatched bet   20.00 2685.00 577.50
    gez_bear Show
    • K
    • 7
    		     
    gazza127 Show
    • A
    • K
    		     
    joesman1 Show
    • 3
    • A
    		     
    Turn
       
    • 9
    		     
    River
       
    • 5
    		     
    gez_bear Win Straight to the 9 2685.00   2685.00
    and this....
    gazza127 Small blind   50.00 50.00 3950.00
    chrisx2525 Big blind   100.00 150.00 3062.50
      Your hole cards
    • Q
    • Q
    		     
    baddunn Fold        
    thebookie2 Fold        
    Nutter5932 Raise   200.00 350.00 8477.50
    YEAMA Call   200.00 550.00 1342.50
    gazza127 Raise   600.00 1150.00 3350.00
    chrisx2525 All-in   3062.50 4212.50 0.00
    Nutter5932 Fold        
    YEAMA Fold        
    gazza127 Call   2512.50 6725.00 837.50
    gazza127 Show
    • Q
    • Q
    		     
    chrisx2525 Show
    • A
    • A
    		     
    Flop
       
    • 4
    • 6
    • 2
    		     
    Turn
       
    • 9
    		     
    River
       
    • 8
    		     
    chrisx2525 Win Pair of Aces 6725.00   6725.00
    this just happened....
    gazza1271460001£211.70 + £139.35 Head Prizes4£29.91
    Nanananananana.

    Really really really pleased.  I was having a torrid time on the tables (donked out of a number of others) and really thought it wasn't to be my night.  Reigned it back in and won £350 - biggest win of the diary.

    Going to go to bed happy tonight!
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  • GELDYGELDY
    edited August 2013
    n1 well deserved - what image did you have on that table to get your AK bet called!
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: The ramblings of a young man (gazza127 diary):
    n1 well deserved - what image did you have on that table to get your AK bet called!
    Posted by GELDY

    TY Geldy :)

    Who knows?!  Clearly very loose... although there was a bounty on the line - and in a £22 bh people will call with almost anything to get that bigger head prize.
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  • Nutter5932Nutter5932
    edited August 2013
    Watched you tonight in the 22 when I could as I wasn't really concentrating on that tourn as was on the ft of the 55 but you seem to play very well. Read the dairy when I can and keeping up to date with your progress, if you keep your focus I expect you to rise through the mtt stakes pretty fast and get a few decent scores on here.

    Goodluck
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  • LARSON7LARSON7
    edited August 2013
    Well done Gaz, very nice indeed
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: The ramblings of a young man (gazza127 diary):
    Watched you tonight in the 22 when I could as I wasn't really concentrating on that tourn as was on the ft of the 55 but you seem to play very well. Read the dairy when I can and keeping up to date with your progress, if you keep your focus I expect you to rise through the mtt stakes pretty fast and get a few decent scores on here. Goodluck
    Posted by Nutter5932
    Thanks a lot Nutter!  Good to know there are others reading I didnt even know about!  And after checking your sharkscope (wow) the compliment means a whole lot more.  Congratulations on winning the £55 bh - you're clearly a very accomplished player.

    Here's hoping the run continues and I can meet you at the higher stakes soon enough.... but for now its important not to get carried away with myself and start buying into £55 games when the BR simply wont allow it.
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: The ramblings of a young man (gazza127 diary):
    In Response to Re: The ramblings of a young man (gazza127 diary) : Thanks a lot Nutter!  Good to know there are others reading I didnt even know about!  And after checking your sharkscope (wow) the compliment means a whole lot more.  Congratulations on winning the £55 bh - you're clearly a very accomplished player. Here's hoping the run continues and I can meet you at the higher stakes soon enough.... but for now its important not to get carried away with myself and start buying into £55 games when the BR simply wont allow it.
    Posted by gazza127
    Who you trying to kid? ;)

    Well done tonight bud.
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: The ramblings of a young man (gazza127 diary):
    Well done Gaz, very nice indeed
    Posted by LARSON7
    Ty Larson :)
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: The ramblings of a young man (gazza127 diary):
    In Response to Re: The ramblings of a young man (gazza127 diary) : Who you trying to kid? ;) Well done tonight bud.
    Posted by hhyftrftdr
    Hahaha.  Shhhhh.  Oh maybe just one eh?

    Saw you got final table of the main tonight (i think) so nice one on that too!
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  • waller02waller02
    edited August 2013
    Nice win Gaz, wp m8 :)
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: The ramblings of a young man (gazza127 diary):
    Nice win Gaz, wp m8 :)
    Posted by waller02
    Why thank you :)  Onwards and upwards!
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  • waller02waller02
    edited August 2013
    Check your pms mate. It's about the TPT game tonight.
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    Different story tonight.

    Im so irritated that i cant even be bothered to talk about anything.

    Here's why:
    onmaclean Small blind   150.00 150.00 14170.00
    horatio946 Big blind   300.00 450.00 13245.25
      Your hole cards
    • A
    • A
    		     
    gazza127 Raise   600.00 1050.00 21488.75
    true70 Fold        
    cabbs Fold        
    conorccfc Call   600.00 1650.00 2685.00
    ronmaclean All-in   14170.00 15820.00 0.00
    horatio946 Fold        
    gazza127 Call   13720.00 29540.00 7768.75
    conorccfc All-in   2685.00 32225.00 0.00
    ronmaclean Show
    • J
    • J
    		     
    gazza127 Show
    • A
    • A
    		     
    conorccfc Show
    • K
    • Q
    		     
    Flop
       
    • J
    • 2
    • K
    		     
    Turn
       
    • 3
    		     
    River
       
    • 10
    		     
    conorccfc Win Flush to the King 10155.00   10155.00
    ronmaclean Win Three Jacks 22070.00   22070.00
    Yes he just shoved 44bb into a pot of 5.5bb.

    For a 15k chip lead over 2nd... 25 remaining.  I end up pure bubbling the tournament.  They both cash.

    P/O
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    Sigh.

    15/454 in main
    16/584 in mini

    Didnt even cash that much.

    Two exit hands:

    Main:
    Bandit737 Small blind   3000.00 3000.00 30270.42
    grimreap25 Big blind   6000.00 9000.00 147057.48
      Your hole cards
    • 10
    • 10
    		     
    2cat2 Fold        
    gazza127 All-in   47876.90 56876.90 0.00
    MattBates Fold        
    Bandit737 Fold        
    grimreap25 Call   41876.90 98753.80 105180.58
    grimreap25 Show
    • 7
    • 7
    		     
    gazza127 Show
    • 10
    • 10
    		     
    Flop
       
    • 7
    • 5
    • 8
    		     
    Turn
       
    • 9
    		     
    River
       
    • 9
    		     
    grimreap25 Win Full House, 7s and 9s 98753.80   203934.38
    Mini:
    WillNors Small blind   1500.00 1500.00 33948.75
    Lumsdero Big blind   3000.00 4500.00 86630.00
      Your hole cards
    • Q
    • Q
    		     
    SBAndy Fold        
    gazza127 All-in   49337.69 53837.69 0.00
    GROW5ER All-in   61483.25 115320.94 0.00
    titchoz Fold        
    WillNors Fold        
    Lumsdero Fold        
    GROW5ER Unmatched bet   12145.56 103175.38 12145.56
    gazza127 Show
    • Q
    • Q
    		     
    GROW5ER Show
    • A
    • K
    		     
    Flop
       
    • Q
    • 3
    • 4
    		     
    Turn
       
    • K
    		     
    River
       
    • 9
    		     
    GROW5ER Win Flush to the Ace 103175.38   115320.94
    Maybe I can min raise in mini as im not too shallow... but in reality with his hand it was all going in pre anyway.


    Bit gutted really.  They both hold and im definitely looking at final tables - or at least some decent cash.
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited August 2013
    £5 accumulator for sky this week (aside of freebet)

    Gone for a bit of an ambitious one today (i think):

    Blackburn v Nottingham Forrest - 13/8
    Huddersfield v QPR - 5/4
    Yeovil v Birmingham - 17/10

    15/1 treble.  Least confident about birmingham... however they werent bad away from home last season so think there might be value there.

    Got a cheeky bet on M'glabach AH+3 against Bayern Munich.  2-1 to Bayern at the minute so hopefully that stays how it is for a return.  Odds of 1.65 for that bet... so much value its unreal.
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