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Love "value versus cost".
I've had the good fortune to be coached, mentored & helped in Sports Betting for the last 4 years by some of the finest Pro Sports Bettors in the UK, including Mr Ambo, & a chap by the name of Graham Wheldon, aka "Chompy". Thanks to them, I've made a 7.6% ROI over a sample size in excess of 6,000 bets, which takes a bit of doing. And in amongst all that advice, one thing stands head & shoulders above everything else.
Look for value, not winners.
Value always.
The only problem with value betting, of course, is that you lose all your accounts. Think I have 1 "clean" unrestricted account left, all the rest have closed me down. Hey ho, I cant complain, I had a ball.
The Dark Side
Well well well, what a ride this has been.
After a decent start, I sort of hit the rocks a bit, & dropped a good few bob, which I'm not used to. Thankfully, a close friend or two have kept my head in the right place, offered help & tips, & I'm getting there, bit by bit, learning them ropes.
I've been used to a steady but small profit in O8, so it has stung a bit not having an edge & taking a few black eyes.
Thanks to lots of Rewards money & the Prio bonus, I'm only about £200 off my bankroll peak, but without those, I'd be about £600 down in NLH DYM's so far.
It's tremendous fun though, the challenge to try & do something where I know the others are better than me.
Good banter with some of the Big Boys, too, Timmy, Spanky & the like. Good blokes, them, & I enjoy their table company muchly.
Do see a bit more bad blood in the NLH chatboxes, "typical Sky" must be typed about 10 times a night. If they were my kids I'd worry about them crossing the road or tying their shoelaces, I really would.
All the MTT Schedules for Vegas at WSOP time are slowly appearing, I've got schedules for WSOP, Venetian, Aria & GN, just await PHH & Binions now.
Plenty of PLO & PLO8 MTT's as usual, I'm ridiculously excited.
I always "hard diet" pre Vegas, & that has started already, & includes 4 miles of walking every day. And then, the day I get to Vegas, it's Burgers & Sticky Bun City, oioi.
I have started dabbling with sports betting. Started off with Lambert's scheme but found I needed abit more of a challenge. I mostly do lay betting on the exchanges. Initially, with the horses but I didn't really have the knowledge and got stung abit so switched to football which has been better but it's early days.
Value really is the key. Lay betting means the odds are so short, you win often but you don't want to expose yourself too much as one wrong result can wipe out your profits. So last night I bet against PSG on a match result at 1-6 but not against Stoke at 1-13 especially as Man City were resting players.
So do you get banned from the exchanges if you are successful or is it just conventional bookies? (Not that I am in any such danger at the moment)
Well done bud.
I'm not aware of Lambert's scheme, but if he can make long term sustainable profits, good luck to him.
The bans & restrictions are only the FO Firms, not the Exchanges. However, the Exchange prices reflect the real price, "true value", so there's seldom value there, or at least, when there is it's much harder to find.
Well done on the PSG lay, what an extraordinary result that was. Not sure, but I think Barca were about 8/1 pre-match to win the tie?
I got PSG as low as 6.5 in decimal odds on an exchange pre-match which was surprising as they were likely park the bus and protect their lead rather go for the win
With Exchanges, you are betting against other punters & you just pay commission. With the Fixed Odds firms, the traditional High Street or Online companies, you are betting against the house, & the house has a built in edge, or profit margin, which is far greater than Exchange Commission.
It's similar to poker in some ways. When we play poker, we are betting against other poker players, not the House. The house simply charges a sum - rake/Reg fee - to facilitate that. Same with Bingo. In Bet, Vegas & Casino, we are playing against the House.
I'd be interested to know what kind of bets youre looking at to acheive this ROI. It's quite impressive. Working for a bookie myself I would suggest there is a massive difference between betting 'value' and picking off weak prices.
Some would argue its the same thing, but it isn't. Value is % time your bet wins relative to the price offered by the bookie. This is usually using stats/form/info that perhaps bookies have ignored whilst calculating their prices. Picking off weak prices are leagues/matches/props which are poorly priced because either there is next to no info to go on or the models aren't sophisticated enough to calculate all the prop prices correctly.
You wouldn't get shutdown on our site playing PG prices in relatively solid leagues across all sports, but you would if you're constantly taking advantage of a specific weak league/prop/tool error on every single bet.
It's value prices we look for. "We" is a collection of like-minded people who chew the cud over different potential bets, a sort of collective.
Unfortunately, a lot of the bets are either long range ante-post stuff or are in "thin" markets, hence so many of my accounts closed. I could still get on in shops, of course, but Online is so much easier, & when I do occasionally visit a Betting Shop these days they seem to me to be pretty depressing places. (No disrespect to you, obv).
One problem I guess is that I never play any house games, or the high margin stuff such as dubs, trebs or accas & the "exotics".
By the way, look out for some interesting news from Sky Poker about the Cheltenham Festival. oioi.
My lurker re-appeared last night - unusual for him to appear midweek. Perhaps there was nothing on TV, or he had nothing better to do on a Thursday evening.
"That's not the real tikay" was all he wrote last night.
Not sure whether to feel sorry for the poor chap, what a life he must have to get amusement in such a manner.
No disrespect taken. We sold all our shops to Coral in 2005 so now only an online presence. Think it was very forward thinking at the time to commit solely to online. Kudos to the bosses though as its clearly worked out.
Absolutely the right decision. High St Betting Shops are way past their sell-by date, & must have horrific overheads compared to digital.
Is there going to be a ukops announcement soon as just noticed a few ukops games in the lobby.
Sorry for delayed reply. Too many things to do, never enough hours in the day, eh?
Am getting there, yes. Life will never be quite the same again, but having said that, I'm probably in better nick now than I have been for many years. I've packed up smoking, gone on a strict diet & lost a good bit of weight, & I walk 4 miles every single day, so that's all good I guess.
Online poker? Well I needed a break, I was playing way too much, almost to the point of addiction. I was advised to take it easy for a while, & I've been doing exactly that, but I'm about ready to resume now. In fact old Eon mentioned yesterday that there was a PLO8 DYM about to start & so I decided to reg for it & sorta break the ice, but it filled before I could get my name on the list.
One problem for me with online poker is that it was pretty much the only time I smoked cigarettes. I smoked a bit when driving, but that apart, 90% of my smoking was whilst playing Online Poker, & in a 5 hour session I would get through 10 or 15 ciggies. And of course I can't be doing that ever again, so I'm just a bit worried that if I resume, the urge to smoke will be too much. I've gone full cold turkey, no patches or stuff, so I gotta be careful. It's 8 weeks tonight since I last touched a cigarette, & I'm at that point where I have to be careful I don't convince myself I have won the battle. That's THE most dangerous time imo.
Loads of studying? Not of poker, no.......I've been reading a ton of stuff, have upped my quota to at least 1 book per week, but not poker, no. Mostly business based stuff.
Am reading the story of Alan Mulally at the moment, it's called "American Icon".
Alan was the man who rescued Ford Motor Company from impending bankruptcy. There is an interesting beginning to his career at Ford, where he had been parachuted in to save the ailing business. Several of the incumbent Ford family, & Directors, doubted his ability to save Ford.
"We are in real bad shape Alan, I doubt you can save us".
Alan shot back, as quick as a flash;
"I was CEO of Boeing Aircraft Company on 9/12/2001 & I managed to survive that & return Boeing to prosperity".
And if you think about it, it's hard to imagine any business could have been in worse shape on that day.
Amazing guy.
I'm not at all sure I could dine with either of them even if you paid me £1,000.
I have absolutely no idea how Miranda makes a living as a comedian. Anyone who thought Mrs Browns Boys was bad needs to watch 3 minutes - well no, 2 will do - of Miranda. Ugh.
I will say this about her. Anyone with that little talent who can make a really good living deserves all the praise they can get. Can't be easy, that. She is the comedic version of that frumpy singer, Adele.