Extra Place Races

Phantom66

In Response to Extra Place Races:

Hi. I posted about these offers on this on Mr Channing's thread a bit ago. Thought I might share thoughts here on selections and overall results. Todays EPR is the 16.20 at Wolverhampton. I normally wouldnt touch a 5f class 6 sprint but Sky are offering 3 places on a 6 horse race and I seem to have a decent record on this track.  I have gone for Pearl Noir @8/1 and Cruise Tothelimit @11/2 who both seem to offer value and are well treated with Jockey claims v the favourites. Disclaimer - Please don't think these are tips - I am a novice.
Posted by Phantom66

Very interesting.

Well done.

Keep posting

Phantom66

Hi.

I posted about these offers on this on Mr Channing's thread a bit ago. Thought I might share thoughts here on selections and overall results.

Todays EPR is the 16.20 at Wolverhampton.

I normally wouldnt touch a 5f class 6 sprint but Sky are offering 3 places on a 6 horse race and I seem to have a decent record on this track. 

I have gone for Pearl Noir @8/1 and Cruise Tothelimit @11/2 who both seem to offer value and are well treated with Jockey claims v the favourites.

Disclaimer - Please don't think these are tips - I am a novice.

Phantom66

Thanks Wynne. It was a nice start to the thread, Cruised to the win @6/1, Pearl Noir not placed but can't have everything.

Phantom66

Just the one pick for today's EPR the 2.50 Lingfield.

Jose fans will be on the special one but I have gone for Welsh Inlet @7/1, consistent sort that likes the course and distance and I have just had a nice weekend in Llandudno so that must be a sign.

daphne56

In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:

Just the one pick for today's EPR the 2.50 Lingfield. Jose fans will be on the special one but I have gone for Welsh Inlet @7/1, consistent sort that likes the course and distance and I have just had a nice weekend in Llandudno so that must be a sign.
Posted by Phantom66

   ITS NOT A LOSER WITH SKY BET

Phantom66

^^^ Shows the value of the extra place with 4th getting paid today. 

Phantom66

Today's EPR is the 16.00 Warwick a 3m2f handicap hurdle class 3.

Definitely not the best value EPR ever as we are just one shy of the runners that would get 4 places anyway.

I think the 3 picks have solid place potential though and all have won over hurdles and the distance.

Samingarry @11/1

Cadoudoff @12/1

Catching on @7/1

Not sure whether going for 3 in one race is optimum but should in theory be lower variance long term. You need 2/3 to place or one to win to profit but the times when you bag a win+1 or 2 places it does feel good. Might add a small tricast just in case that does happen.

Phantom66

So the first blank, it seemed a pretty open contest with no great added value from the offer so I probably should have swerved instead of backing 3. Hopefully a lesson learned for the future.

Thoughts are for Cadoudoff though who was travelling well even after a bump when moving through into contention but then took a terrible fall. Wasn't looking good but I was only on the stream so don't know the outcome.

edit - just seen fatally injured. Very sad. Must be heartbreaking for connections.

MISTY4ME

Unlucky today Phantom. 

Yes the sickening side of horse racing when the horse takes a fatal fall, and all seemingly for our enjoyment... and it was a horrendous fall too, but at least the horse knew nothing about it and didn't suffer at all because it was instantaneous. I put faith in the fact I know that the horse was doing something that it enjoyed (you soon learn which horses don't enjoy racing, and particularly jumping). The horses do have a fantastic life too, they are totally pampered and have the best of everything, and i can assure you there are far worse examples of cruelty to horses and animals in other walks of life.

Good Luck in the future, the SKYBET extra place races really are great value, though as you've seen.... some more than others.

 

Phantom66

Today's EPR has a more promising look to it, the 17.45 Newcastle with 12 runners the place is worth more and there is a 2/1 fav which pushes up the value for the places.

I have gone for 3 again but will be reviewing that strategy closely!

Highwayman 25/1

Lord Rob 8/1

Psychology 8/1

After failing to capitalise yesterday on the obvious money going on the eventual comfortable winner I will be looking out for a lightly raced outsider that is in a similar situation today.

edit. Added Tred softly while 11/2 and for some reason decided 100/1 was worth a punt with Bilko's Back.

I call it diary tilt after the pressure of a blank result. Need to put some discipline back into this.

daphne56

   I TARGET THESE RACES ASWELL BUT I WILL ADMIT FOUND TODAYS IMPOSSIBLE

         2 RACES TOMORROW BOTH 6 PLACES

              GL TODAY PHANTOM

Phantom66

I am having serious words with myself after putting 5 bets on the one race, a blank will serve me right.

I have checked over my results and I really shouldn't have panicked. I have gone 30 bets without a win and 8 without even a place before and I am still up over 30% ROI before today. Still a very small sample though (175). If I can get to 1000 and be +ve I will be happy.

Phantom66

Thanks Misty and Daphne.

By the way, how do you know already there are 2x6 place races tomorrow? 

daphne56

   SKY BET SHOWING 2.25 & 3.35 DON 1/5 ODDS

unknown_username

good luck with this phantom, wont be joining you though as I don't use skybet

Phantom66

Thanks Mr V.

Yesterday was practically a blank, little more than money back on the shortest price bet which was the only place. 2nd and 1st Fav both looked different class.

Today I have gone for the 2.25 Donacaster Spring Handicap

6 places (thanks Daphne for the tip on spotting the races earlier)

3 selections

Ballet Concerto 9/1

Examiner 10/1

Another Touch 12/1

Think I will set a max of half selections to no of places paid unless the book has a particularly odd shape to it.

Glenelg

What you fancy today Phantom?

I also make a few ££  with this promotion.  

Today, I'm going for....

2:25  Holiday Magic  25  & Strong Steps 40

3:35  Lucy the Painter  33 & Eddystone Rock 33

Small stakes EXCEPT  for Eddystone Rock. :-(

EDIT:  lol  our posts crossed!

Phantom66

GL Glenelg.

Just added Donccha 9/1 and Instant Attraction at 20/1 in the 3.35

Enough places paid for us both to make a profit!

wynne1938

I will give this a go in the 3.35 Doncaster

You're Fired 20/1

George Cinq 33/1

Highland Colori 33/1

Master Carpenter 20/1

Withersea 29/1

Zhui Feng 20/1

£1 e/w on all (£12 staked)

daphne56

    SUNDAY 3.20 DON 6 PLACES

daphne56

In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:

    SUNDAY 3.20 DON 6 PLACES
Posted by daphne56

           

                  OWER FLY 16/1

Phantom66

WP Glenelg with 2 big price 6th places.

I managed to pick up a win and a place from shorter prices.

For todays 3.20 at Doncaster it looks like a low draw will be important.

I am on Bogart, Ower fly and Golden amber.

GL everyone.

Ikelly

Sir Billy Wright and Ninjago for me, GL.

jordz16

Eccleston i really really like

Added Bogart and Muntalab too

Phantom66

Todays EPR 16.50 at Huntingdon.

Gone for The jugopolist @14/1. 2× C&D winner with a recent 2nd and a 5lb jockey claim.

Phantom66

Todays race not looking right for the offer as 4 horses 4/1 under and I cant pick any from the 8/1 bar that has any strong claim to make a place.

Probably should have swerved altogether but I did back General Tufto e/w and Simply Clever to win.

daphne56

    YES GEN TUFTO GOT 11/2 YESTERDAY

         IN THIS RACE BEST VALUE LOOKS INSURE BET GINGER CHARLIE 5/1

Phantom66

Todays is the 20.45 Kempton.

I have gone with 3 but at a lower stake and added a combination forecast so it would be handy to bag a 1-2-3.

Desert Cross 9/1

Tingo in the Tale 8/1

Rail Dancer 7/1

I'll be focusing on Aintree for the NAPs table for the next couple of days, although I suspect there will be EPRs there anyway.

GL everyone.

Phantom66

Got the 1 and 2 but nowhere for the 3.

Was a nice surprise with the payout as I hadnt realise the bet worked with 1st and 2nd. 

Told you I was a novice!

I think I meant to place a combination tricast and made a combination forecast instead. A case of making the wrong bet at the right time. I rely on that tactic alot in poker. :-)

Phantom66

Got wrapped up in the racing and golf and forgot to post.

I was on  Dineur at 20/1 in the foxhunters so that was handy unfortunately didnt have it for tipster race. Theinval small return for the place. 2 misses in the foxhunters and 2 in other races but overall a good day.

Phantom66

I didn't put much more on at Aintree and all lost including my 5 for the National.

However thanks to Dineur I made a 7 unit profit on the meeting.

Overall 214 bets made in 2017 and +118 units 

So now I am entering unchartered territory - flat racing on turf.

I have reduced bet sizes and gone for 3 in todays EPR the 17.00 at Windsor.

Shifting Star, Marcano and Here's Two.

Having to oppose Commodity the favourite whom alot of tipsters seem to agree on, but then that is the idea of these bets to get value for places when there is a short price favourite. If you are going to oppose favourites then handicaps with an extra place paid seem to be the place to do it imo.

Spotted the useful resource http://www.drawbias.com/ in StayorGo's jackpot thread. Very useful for a novice like me and apparently only a possible marginal edge for high numbers in mile races at Windsor. I have a high low and middle number anyway so all bases covered.

GL anyone having a punt.