Extra Place Races

Phantom66

Hi daphne I am sure that if you are "in the know" either through connections or by watching races and entries closely you can make money from the long odds winners in these handicaps. I only make a few small bets so it's not really worth investing the time for myself though.

Today I am on

3.50 Chepstow - Zambezi Queen

6.45 Cheltenham - Beggar's Velvet, Ni Sin E mo Ainm, Curraigflemens

GL everyone

PS I have made my 400th horse bet of the year so I will do an overall summary of results later. Hopefully an upward tick on the graph for today.

unknown_username

awesome pick mate 

its america's biggest race tonight or tomorrow and sky paying 6 places, if not seen that race before its a top top class event with horses from all over the world competing.

Phantom66

Thanks Micky.

I was a bit worried about the draw as on drawbias there is a bias to nearside over 6f at Chepstow and Zambezi Queen was on the far side. However, she moved across in the first part of the race and tucked in behind the leaders in the middle and then moved across to the nearside rail before romping away over the last two furlongs. So to win by 6 lengths having run across the width of the track as well then clearly her breeding was the best guide and not past form. One of those that needed to mature a bit and reach 3 perhaps. One for the note book and I am sure she will step up in class.

I wish I could take all the credit but to be fair SL gave it a tentative selection and it was napped by the Times and picked by the Express too. 

Saw those places on offer for the Kentucky Derby. Anyone got any angles in that one? 

unknown_username

i like to do frontrunning or just off the pace in kentucky derby.  not that im a expert or anything but ill do a few of those, will look at the card soon 

daphne56

    I WILL BE GOING WITH GIRVIN (M SMITH) 14/1

Phantom66

Promised an update on my 1st 400 bets.

My stated aim is to try and make a profit over 1000 bets and then reassess. 

I am keeping the bets small and mainly targetting the extra value in the EPRs although I do place others in the big races and where I see value having had a bit more time to read up on the races.

I have made 400 bets since the 11th January (my first lost).

I have bet on 74 days at an average of 5.4 bets per day.

My average stake is just £1.60 - most of them are 0.5 ew or 1 ew. 

My longest odds winner was 22/1 and longest odds place was 50/1.

Having staked £657, I am £185 up, which is of course too good to be true as that includes free bets, so while I have made an ROI of 28% that is because some of those wins have come risk free and the value of the free bets is skewed v my cash bets as I am betting small. I have a small bankroll and I am doing this to learn and for enjoyment (I am getting plenty of both).

Nearly all are single bets.

My ROI without the free bets is around 10% which I gather is still on the high side and unlikely to be sustainable but it shows if a novice like me can make a return it must be possible for others. I do target the added value offers which of course helps.

Generally I only spend 15-30 mins a day on this, but for bigger days like Cheltenham/Aintree or any televised meets that will be able to watch quite a bit longer. I target the EPRs first and assuming the shape of the book looks OK I will read the SL descriptions and form guides via here and the RP via another site. I also check drawbias.com (thanks again graham) and shortlist. Really looking for something outside the top 2 in the betting with a strong win claim, ideally with a fav being opposed, or a longer odds shot with a decent place chance.

I tend to bet on at least 2 horses each race to try and keep the variance down and nearly always e/w.

I will cross check a couple of free tipster resources (dont know if the links are allowed) but you can find them easily enough if you google free newspaper nap picks. 

I am also getting better at reading the more detailed form guides on the horse databases (sky have a good free one) to help me with my selections.

Thanks Brrrrrr for getting me into this and for others in the community for keeping me going, I'll probably miss some out, but Mickyblue, StayorGo, Vaigret, Daphne and Wynne have all been very encouraging.

Phantom66

Today's EPRs...

14.20 Newmarket

Priceless, Goldream

15.40 Thirsk

Lat Hawill, Rousayan

unknown_username

14:20 kimberella

Phantom66

2 places up in the 1420 with the 5th counting.

Added Hidden Rebel in the 340.

daphne56

In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:

  THESE IRISH RACES CAN BE HELPFUL IF YOU LOOK AT THE ALSO RANS     (ALCANDER) I WILL BE NICE AND JUST SAY WAS NOT GIVEN A GOOD RIDE       GOOD CHANCE IT WILL WIN SOON DECLARED ON SATURDAY ON THE FLAT         3.10 CORK             
Posted by daphne56

  SOME DISAPOINTED PEOPLE ABOUT

Phantom66

3 EPRs today but I am only going for 2 of them (swerving Stratford)

3.00 Ayr - Goninodaethat

6.20 Windsor - Delfie Lane

Might add later.

GL everyone

StayOrGo

5 places looks good in 6.20pm, gone for Lightoller E/W.

GL!

Snuffer

Going for John Reel (10-1) in todays EPR 3.50 Ffos Las.

GL all.

Phantom66

I'm taking a break from the Irish handicaps.

I am in for the 8.30 Leiccester though

Luxford, Pursuing Steed and Lesanti

added an insured win bet on Coverham.

GL everyone

daphne56

       BANTA BAY 11/1

Phantom66

14/1 win and a place and money back on the void. Just 1 unplaced.

Also managed to pick the right one for the naps table.

unknown_username

legend  

me i couldnt pick my nose atm

Phantom66

3.00 Chester (4 places)

Reflektor, Taexali

3.35 Chester (6 places)

Blakeney Point,Watersmeet, Sea of Heaven, Golden Spear

GL all

Phantom66

Due to withdrawals (including one of my picks Reflektor) the 3.00 Chester is no longer an EPR

I have still replaced Reflektor with Spring Loaded however who's draw in stall 5 is now looking much better for the withrdrawl of horses from stalls 3 and 4.

daphne56

  GOOD TRADITION

unknown_username

eagily awaiting tomorrows .

Phantom66

There is a risk that they will not be EPRs with possible further NRs spoiling the party.

However I wont be around later so I have gone for it anyway.

3.00 Chester (4 places - right on the limit of 10 runners)

Sharp Defence and Rebel de Lope

4.35 Chester (4 places - can only stand 1 more NR)

Poet's Society

Phantom66

Been hard work getting a value winner at Chester, the draw bias doesn't help, but I'll give it another crack.

3.35 4 places

Western Hymn, Wall of Fire

5.05 4 places

Archippos, Subcontinent, Croquembouche

GL all

daphne56

    3.35 RACE FULL OF SOFT GROUND HORSES

             CARBON DATING 28/1 HAS WON ON FIRM

Phantom66

Some money back today.

Had Western Hymn at 8/1 and added St Marys for the last and it drifted to 14/1 but was only on that small.

A few bits and bobs from places in the EPRs and my w/o nap on Judicial to win by more than 1 length.

unknown_username

In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:

Some money back today. Had Western Hymn at 8/1 and added St Marys for the last and it drifted to 14/1 but was only on that small. A few bits and bobs from places in the EPRs and my w/o nap on Judicial to win by more than 1 length.
Posted by Phantom66

Well done adding St Marys Phantom, was my big fancy today and frustrated couldn't have it in my 3 naps!!!!!!

Phantom66

Yes I'll give you and the nap thread the credit for me having a 2nd look.

Hope you had it well backed.

I only went small as I already had 3 picks.

unknown_username

In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:

Yes I'll give you and the nap thread the credit for me having a 2nd look. Hope you had it well backed. I only went small as I already had 3 picks.
Posted by Phantom66

yes did alright mate

Phantom66

3.10 Haydock (5 places)

London Prize, Great Fighter, Fergall

4.00 Ascot (6 places)

Remarkable, The Warrior, Shady Mccoy

...and a special mention for the 3.25 Ascot Ejayteekay

GL All

Phantom66

Couple of decent price places.

Great fighter 25/1 and Shady Mccoy at 40/1