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Extra Place Races

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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    Day off today, 2 Irish and 1 french race have offers if you fancy it.

    I dont have time to put the effort in to try and pick in unfamiliar territory.
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    5.50 Windsor (4 places)

    Lightly Squeeze (I hope 33/1 is the correct price)
    Buzz

    7.50 Windsor (4 places)

    Badenscloth (insured)
    Bazwind

    Horses starting with other letters are available.

    GL All.
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    Windosr abandoned before the 7.50 which might have saved me some money the way things are at the moment.

    Today 3.00 Beverley (4 places)

    Bond Bombshell, Point of Woods, Thatcherite (not backing by name!)

    Also an EPR at Killarney if you fancy it

    GL all.
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    Nothing at Beverley, Bond Bombshell and Point of Woods got good breaks to the rail behind the leader. The leader kept going away and my picks went backwards. Meanwhile thatcherite seems acapable of coming back to form and had a decent finish but just edged out by a 40/1 shot for the extra place. Double shame because I was looking at that one last night and decided not to go for it with the 3 other picks.

    In the end I put a bet on at Killarney which was handy as I picked Shinghari at 10/1 although there was 30p/£1 rule 4 deduction.
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    A few offers at York today

    2.20 (6 places)

    Speed Company, Innocent Touch (placed 6) - added Master Carpenter (win) thanks to ITV4 :) and Repercussion

    2.55 (5 places)

    Wentworth Falls - Doing well with my additions Al Qahwa (win) and Lincoln (placed)

    3.30 (4 places)

    Tasleet (win), Mobsta placed 4) - Added nameitwhatyoulike and Suedois - got it right early in this one

    May add some later, be interesting to watch whether the ground has softened/softens with further rain and if so where the best ground is.


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  • SnufferSnuffer
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:
    A few offers at York today 2.20 (6 places) Speed Company, Innocent Touch (placed 6) - added Master Carpenter (win) thanks to ITV4 :) and Repercussion 2.55 (5 places) Wentworth Falls - Doing well with my additions Al Qahwa (win) and Lincoln (placed) 3.30 (4 places) Tasleet (win), Mobsta placed 4) - Added nameitwhatyoulike and Suedois - got it right early in this one May add some later, be interesting to watch whether the ground has softened/softens with further rain and if so where the best ground is.
    Posted by Phantom66
    Nice results, very impressive.
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:
    A few offers at York today 2.20 (6 places) Speed Company, Innocent Touch (placed 6) - added Master Carpenter (win) thanks to ITV4 :) and Repercussion 2.55 (5 places) Wentworth Falls - Doing well with my additions Al Qahwa (win) and Lincoln (placed) 3.30 (4 places) Tasleet (win), Mobsta placed 4) - Added nameitwhatyoulike and Suedois - got it right early in this one May add some later, be interesting to watch whether the ground has softened/softens with further rain and if so where the best ground is.
    Posted by Phantom66
    Absolutely brilliant Phantom , hoping you made plenty of money
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:
    In Response to Re: Extra Place Races : Absolutely brilliant Phantom , hoping you made plenty of money
    Posted by vaigret

    Thanks but sadly not "plenty of money". 

    I am treating horse racing like I do my poker, a hobby that hopefully doesn't cost me money and where I can make a small return.

    As with my poker I seem to make a good ROI but not much actual cash profit as I keep the stakes low.

    I suppose the difference with horse racing is that if I increase stakes I wont be playing against better players.  So if I do manage to make a decent return after 1000 bets I might look at betting a little more. 




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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    3 good offers on at York again. I will add selections as and when although I wont have the benefit of being in to watch the ITV4 team.

    Keep an eye on runners though as there may be a few NRs which could affect the places. I have put the no. of places required and the current no of runners in brackets [current/needed] after the places.

    2.20 (6 places) [16/16] will pay 5 places if 14-15 runners 
    *edit* Now [12/10] for 5 places

    Orient Class (placed), Soie d'leau, Union Rose(placed), Duke of Firenze (win) (normally would swerve top weight fav, but following Mr V here and will have to run very below form to not get in top 6 - great run wp Mr V)

    3.30 (4 places) [10/10]

    Syphax, Exemplar, Rekindling(placed), Forest Ranger

    4.05 (6 places) [17/16]

    Top Notch Tonto, Donncha, Can't Change it (NR), Bravery, Home Cummins - Complete blank - hard to miss 6 places with 4 selections but I did it

    [selections last updated 11:10]
    [NRs/places last updated 13:13]
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:
    In Response to Re: Extra Place Races : Thanks but sadly not "plenty of money".  I am treating horse racing like I do my poker, a hobby that hopefully doesn't cost me money and where I can make a small return. As with my poker I seem to make a good ROI but not much actual cash profit as I keep the stakes low. I suppose the difference with horse racing is that if I increase stakes I wont be playing against better players.  So if I do manage to make a decent return after 1000 bets I might look at betting a little more. 
    Posted by Phantom66
    Im not big punter Phantom, small pension doesn't allow it however your points up must be brilliant since you started posting on here . So whether it be pounds or pennies you must be well up and if you can afford to raise stakes it shouldn't have any effect on your winers to runners ratio.

    Having said that whenever I raise my stakes I seem to do not so well.
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited May 2017
    HOME COMINGS in the 4.05 has a horrid draw to overcome but has run very well at york on a few occasions, at a big price. i just dont want something like this to win and listen to all the comentators bang on about course specilist when all oppose it before race.

    only ever bet what anyone can afford to lose, as you have said its for fun, ok fun is winning but if any gets dependant on it fun will soon be lost.

    UNION ROSE in the 2.20 is my ew bet. same thing has won here and ground shouldnt be a issue.
    my bets will be small but i do small doubles aswell just incase ;)

    50p ew double on those 2 returns £376. 

    murad khan in 4.05 i think has a decent chance aswell, well drawn and has decent form. decet jockey on board aswell.
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    Mura Khan and Home Cummins were both on my shortlist too Micky - Big fields and can't back them all. It's always the unselected shortlisted ones that get you when they romp home.

    I have added Home Cummins though, be good for sammy jo bell to win having been dumped off al Qahwa yesterday.

    I wish I had a few ew doubles on yesterday.

    NB down to 12 runners in the 220 but at least it will be 5 places. Value!
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    Q. When there is more than one EPR to pick from, could it be better value to put place doubles/trebles on rather then ew, as I understand it ew multiples mean you only get the place payout if just one of your selections doesn't win?

    I assume place only singles and multiples still carry the extra places if offered?
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited May 2017
    on a double both would need to win to get the win double which is very hard to get 2 20-1 winners for example.

    and yes the extra plces still count on all bets other than tote (placepot/jackpot).

    yesterday you would of made a small fortune but you are making a profit so why try fix it 
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:
    Q. When there is more than one EPR to pick from, could it be better value to put place doubles/trebles on rather then ew, as I understand it ew multiples mean you only get the place payout if just one of your selections doesn't win? I assume place only singles and multiples still carry the extra places if offered?
    Posted by Phantom66
     
    Phantom yes you can do place only on the tote but I have avoided since the 80's here is my story.

    I think it was the 2000 guineas meeting when To Agori mou won it. I was there and backed it to win as it short odds say 2-1 or 3-1. However on that day I also fancied Cornishman of Reg Hollinshead who had come second last time out but was up against a number of very well touted first time outers. He was 20-1.

    Also One of my favourite horses was running , a beautiful almost white horse called STANDAAN , A FIVE FURLONG SPRINTER who ran like the wind. He was 33-1 ridden by Yves St Martin .

    Also another horse which was 25-1, cant remember the name.

    Did them all place only and yes they all won easily.

    Learn't my lesson that day as you can see by my long memory. What should have been really joyous , 4 winners resulted in regrets for the rest of my life. LOL
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  • daphne56daphne56
    edited May 2017



         1981 TO AGORI MOU

         BRING BACK THE MEMORIES (ITS ON YOU TUBE)


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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    i had a look at the ew and place multiple options and tried a couple of very small bets.

    didnt work out very well because I had Donncha as my place banker.

    Anyway thinking about it, to avoid creating a Vaigret recurring nightmare situation, if I do try a multiple in the future I think I may do a small win multiple and a larger place only equivalent.

    Sticking to singles for now though.
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    Yesterday was a bit thin and I have Mr V to thank for my only win, with some places in there too.

    Today's EPRs with current selections are:

    2.20 York 5 places [13/12]

    Neola, Faithful promise, Kentish Waltz, Get Even

    2.35 Newbury 4 places [12/10]

    Clear Spring, Shared Equity, Exceed the Limit, Ashpan Sam

    5.05 York 4 places [11/10]

    Savannah's Dream, Angel Meadow, Megan Lilly

    GL All
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited May 2017
    Phantom each way multiples are the best way.

    I usually do

    3points win singles ie £3 win singles or over 8-1 say £1.50 ew singles
    2 points win or each way doubles
    1 point ew Treble

    usually find that if everything comes up very nice, if you just get places as long as the bets are not silly short prices you still have a ood chance of making profit.

    HopeI am not teaching you to suck eggs
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:
    Phantom each way multiples are the best way. I usually do 3points win singles ie £3 win singles or over 8-1 say £1.50 ew singles 2 points win or each way doubles 1 point ew Treble usually find that if everything comes up very nice, if you just get places as long as the bets are not silly short prices you still have a ood chance of making profit. HopeI am not teaching you to suck eggs
    Posted by vaigret
    That all seems reasonable to me.

    As you will see from my EPR strategy, I am mainly placing a selection of singles on races that give me a good chance of breaking even, some days I make a bit of profit, some days I miss badly and on a few days I make a very nice profit.

    Overall it is shaping up quite nicely with a steady return. 

    I am giving myself a low variance entry into betting on horse racing and taking advantage of the +EV from the extra places.

    I dont even mind going shorter that 8/1 ew in the EPRs. I wouldnt recommend in a normal book - but if say a favourite is evens and you have a 11/2 shot that should place and may win with insurance of an extra place or 2 then I will go for it.

    I will try your multiple strategy out, maybe not today  some tough cards. It definitely fits in with my strategy of spreading risk, minimising variance and it adds that chance of an extra special win.

    You are definitely not teaching me to suck eggs. All advice greatly appreciated!

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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:
    In Response to Re: Extra Place Races : That all seems reasonable to me. As you will see from my EPR strategy, I am mainly placing a selection of singles on races that give me a good chance of breaking even, some days I make a bit of profit, some days I miss badly and on a few days I make a very nice profit. Overall it is shaping up quite nicely with a steady return.  I am giving myself a low variance entry into betting on horse racing and taking advantage of the +EV from the extra places. I dont even mind going shorter that 8/1 ew in the EPRs. I wouldnt recommend in a normal book - but if say a favourite is evens and you have a 11/2 shot that should place and may win with insurance of an extra place or 2 then I will go for it. I will try your multiple strategy out, maybe not today  some tough cards. It definitely fits in with my strategy of spreading risk, minimising variance and it adds that chance of an extra special win. You are definitely not teaching me to suck eggs. All advice greatly appreciated!
    Posted by Phantom66
    NO PROBLEM MATE  What I have been trying to say all along is that whatever you do don't back a horse PLACE only, always have a win bet on it even if that is a smaller amount than what you put on for the place. 
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    2.55: NEWBURY 5 places

    Defoe (won) Al Hamdany, Duke of Bronte (placed), Mister Blue Sky (NR)

    3.55 THIRSK 5 places

    Eccleston (placed), Handsome Dude (placed), Foolad (placed), My name is Rio

    GL All.


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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:
    2.55: NEWBURY 5 places Defoe, Al Hamdany, Duke of Bronte, Mister Blue Sky 3.55 THIRSK 5 places Eccleston, Handsome Dude, Foolad, My name is Rio GL All.
    Posted by Phantom66
    well done on defoe phantom
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:
    In Response to Re: Extra Place Races : well done on defoe phantom
    Posted by vaigret
    TY

    Quite a few places today as well.

    Also had a double win (Ribchester and Denaar) win only.
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    Only 1 UK EPR today (1 at Naas if you fancy it)

    3.30 Market Rasen (4 places)

    After Eight Sivola, Minstrel Royal, Sigurd

    GL All
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    Only after eight sivola placed but it had drifted to 20/1.
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  • MISTY4MEMISTY4ME
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:
    Only 1 UK EPR today (1 at Naas if you fancy it) 3.30 Market Rasen (4 places) After Eight Sivola, Minstrel Royal, Sigurd GL All
    Posted by Phantom66
    I backed SHINLA DAWN @ 40/1 ......6TH (sigh)
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:
    In Response to Re: Extra Place Races : I backed SHINLA DAWN @ 40/1 ......6TH (sigh)
    Posted by MISTY4ME
    UL Misty, I was glad of 4th being a place in this one, especially with the distance the front 3 had on the field.
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    I have got it in early for Mondays EPR, as I have a busy day. I also thought there were some discussion points for my selections so adding some flavour rather than just naming horses.

    8.25 Windsor (4 places)

    Interesting shape to the book here, as there is an odds on favourite Fast and Hot. I can see the attraction with a recent win, no penalty and a 71b claimer on board. However that win was only on Friday and on soft ground so there has to be a question mark over whether it can run well again so soon.

    Happy to oppose, esepcially with it being an EPR.

    Ebisham is 2nd fav at 11/2 and has a recent win. Ground and extra trip a worry but the whole field has something to oppose.

    3rd fav is Essenaitch but that was beaten 4.5l by Fast and hot on friday and does not have a claimer on board and hard to see a reversal in form unless it has much greater recovery powers.

    There is a gap in the betting then (12/1 bar) so I am also looking down the field for some place chances.

    Defoe did me proud so I am sticking to the footballer theme and they dont come much classier than Iniesta. I don't think the horse has quite the same pedigree as his namesake. It is coming back after a long layoff with a new yard. Normally it would be "one to watch" or "see how it goes in the market" but I am happy to put a little ew on at 16/1.

    In the end I also went for Hearty at 16/1 who won 2 handicaps last year and is only 4lb higher, first run for new yard. Ground not an issue but it is a shorter trip.

    Any market movers from the 12/1 bar will be worth an ew punt imo.

    edit:My longer price selections have drifted since last night, which is good news returns wise if they do place, but not so great that there is no market support.



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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    They have added the 5.25 at Carlisle (4 places)

    Yorkee Mo Sabee (decent return run last week and has won here over longer trip and this trip elsewhere)
    Tellovoi (Risky but if does run near best excellent value)
    Maureb (C&D specialist but does need a return to form)
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