4 ew bets, 2 places and an 8/1 winner and I broke even! I was only dabbling at 0.5 ew and betting on the odds, however one bet was placed accidentally at 5ew when on the phone I mis-typed the "." and it was entered as 05. That one of course came 4th.
If I see that offer on again I will definitely try it, just be more careful.
Yesterday was a good day away from the EPRs especially the freebet on Blue on Blue.
I think a new strategy is required for Punchestown handicaps, Micky's suggestion of not betting is probably most EV but I think just betting ew on anything that is 25/1 might be the way forward.
Bit of a recovery at the end thanks to Minella Awards coming in at 11/1.
Joking aside, one thing I have learned is not to bet when you feel you have not found value and Micky was right about Punchestown handicaps. I knew it but I didn't apply it. The only mitigation was I bet very small and only in EPRs but I know in reality I should have swerved.
I seem to have a better strike rate in other races than when I started which is encouraging at least. When I started winning it really was purely down to having an edge with EPRs.
Having said all of that about Punchestown handicaps, I will take a close look at the 16.20 tomorrow as it is 5 places in a 16 horse race (possibly fewer if N/Rs declared) 5 places will still be live if 14 runners.
The other EPR is the Champion Hurdle which is a class 1 affair and in theory easier to pick with 4 places for 12 runners. With the top 4 in the betting very close I am struggling here but I have gone for Vroum Vroum Mag out of those and then Identity Thief which while I can't see it winning 40/1 seems worth a stab at one of those places.
on fiddlers green id take a look at at punchestown mate but it be small i mean £1 e.w small. his last run i think was 2 far but he still a outsider for a reason.
looking at race i think a outsider will take it tho.
Also gone for Dicosimo and Champagne Harmony for some ew value.
Tough pick though, the favourites all seem to have something you can oppose on and alot of the outsiders have something worth considering so picking 2/3 outsiders seems worth a punt to me anyway.
So much for the outsiders in the 4.20. Luckily I had a saver bet on Woodland Opera win @9/2 and Champagne Harmony proved the value of the extra place with a distant 5th @16/1
Differing strategies for the 2 EPRs at Ascot today.
3.45 2 horses who could win and have very good place prospects Seven Heavens and Sir Dancealot. I think it is worth opposing the favourite with the EP as while undoubtedly the class act it is first time this season and (hopefully) needs the run.
4.55 Seems a pretty open handicap yet there are 3 horses quite a way ahead in the betting. I have gone smaller and for 2 just outside the top 3 and 2 at longer odds Directorship, Forceful Appeal, Balmoral Castle, Eqleem.
Blank in the 1st but a nice priced 1-2 in the 2nd.
I also noticed the 3 places offer was on at the greyhounds last night, although by the time I did there were only 3 races left on the card with the qualifying 6 entrants. From 3 bets I had a loss a place and a win and no mishaps on the amounts so now in profit on the dogs.
Today for the 3.10 Lingield I am on Golly miss Molly and Topolova.
After my recent foray into large field Irish handicaps and looking at the card, I am swerving on the 7.50 at Clonwell.
Comments