Extra Place Races

mkgunner

In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:

They have added the 5.25 at Carlisle (4 places) Yorkee Mo Sabee (decent return run last week and has won here over longer trip and this trip elsewhere) Tellovoi (Risky but if does run near best excellent value) Maureb (C&D specialist but does need a return to form)
Posted by Phantom66

maureb looked at myself at big price,only neg its got is bad draw

Phantom66

Yes mk, draw a bit of a concern, but looking on drawbias it says it is a small one, and there seem to be a decent share of winners from the highest stall number.

As you know I am new to this, but I noted Jason Weaver talking about the draw bias at York and how if drawn wide the best tactic is probably to go straight and not over extend by trying to move over. It was helped at York that the bias appears different with softer conditions and there is no indication of that at Carlisle.

It could be one of those where the field splits and if 1 or 2 go with maureb hopefully the others will get in each others way fighting for position on the other side.

Obviously if ground genuinely is much quicker on the other side then Maureb has little chance with that tactic.

Alternatively they could bunch down the middle. 

I am hoping that some horses will be thrown off by the sharp rise in the track furlongs 2-5 which Maureb has clearly coped with well before.

mkgunner

In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:

Yes mk, draw a bit of a concern, but looking on drawbias it says it is a small one, and there seem to be a decent share of winners from the highest stall number. As you know I am new to this, but I noted Jason Weaver talking about the draw bias at York and how if drawn wide the best tactic is probably to go straight and not over extend by trying to move over. It was helped at York that the bias appears different with softer conditions and there is no indication of that at Carlisle. It could be one of those where the field splits and if 1 or 2 go with maureb hopefully the others will get in each others way fighting for position on the other side. Obviously if ground genuinely is much quicker on the other side then Maureb has little chance with that tactic. Alternatively they could bunch down the middle.  I am hoping that some horses will be thrown off by the sharp rise in the track furlongs 2-5 which Maureb has clearly coped with well before.
Posted by Phantom66

had a few quid on ew anyway,gl if bettting

Phantom66

yes I am on it, always back my EPRs albeit at small stakes.

GL us!

Phantom66

Ooops.

Just catching up on replay. I had misread the course layout and thaought the 6f was pretty straight. So outside draw was a bigger disadvantage than I thought, however Maureb looked well placed until final furlong and the early pace was clearly too strong.

MISTY4ME

In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:

Ooops. Just catching up on replay. I had misread the course layout and thaought the 6f was pretty straight. So outside draw was a bigger disadvantage than I thought, however Maureb looked well placed until final furlong and the early pace was clearly too strong.
Posted by Phantom66

Maureb travelled like a dream, but pace was defo way too strong, and all placed horses came from behind. Worth following Maureb next time it runs at Carlisle as he obviously likes the track. i can't understand why jockeys let their horses go tearing off like that, particularly on a stiff track like Carlisle. You'll never see Ryan Moore doing that !

I can only imagine they're under instructions and are trying to get the horse better handicapped.

Phantom66

So just the one place today from the WIndsor race/ At least Hearty had drifted to 28/1.

Fav did win but surprisingly close.

Phantom66

2 to go at today

2.30 Nottingham (4 places)

Fantasy Keeper, Bellevarde

Well priced on their handicap marks with the latter having some C&D form.

4.40 Newcastle (4 places)

Gone for a clutch of runners with good chances in the sweet spot in the betting for these races (7/1 to 12/1). In simple terms if you pick a horse every ew EPR in those odds ranges you should win long term. 4 picks is probably too many but I found something I liked about each of these. 

Major Crispies, Epeius, Caeser the Gaeser, El Principe

Phantom66

Surprised Fantasy Keeper didnt shorten up from 8/1. Once he found a gap had plenty of speed to pull away from the more exposed front runners. I thought Bellevarde had a decent run to 5th, just one place and half a lenght outside the extra place at 33/1.

Phantom66

Only the one place and the extra one at that from Newcastle. Without being results oriented not the best betting tactics by me there.

For today's EPRs I have gone for 2 shorter prices with win potential and a longer price which seems value and could place.

5.10 Lingfield (4 places)

Refuse Colette, Wedgewood Estates, Jeanie's Place

NB High draw a factor here

8.40 Kempton (4 places)

Helfire, Air of York, Keene's Pointe

unknown_username

good luck mate

Phantom66

TY Mr V.

Just a place with Wedgewood Estates 10/1 in the 1st but a handy 1-2 in the 2nd.

Could have done with Air of York to get their nose in front as it had drifted to 12/1 but it was an impressive turn of foot by both to go so far clear and I can't complain about an 11/2 winner.

Phantom66

2 at Sandown this evening

6.00 (5 places)

Boycie and Pernickerty - well priced with a chance of a win - struggling to pick anything long with a place claim here

8.40 (4 places)

Midhmaar, Secret Art, Forceful Appeal and a little punt at 50/1 on Cricklewood Green

GL All

unknown_username

In Response to Re: Extra Place Races:

TY Mr V. Just a place with Wedgewood Estates 10/1 in the 1st but a handy 1-2 in the 2nd. Could have done with Air of York to get their nose in front as it had drifted to 12/1 but it was an impressive turn of foot by both to go so far clear and I can't complain about an 11/2 winner.
Posted by Phantom66

brilliant mate , put me to shame

Phantom66

Boycie won, another rule 4 rant incoming.

I backed it at 7/1, there were non-runners so rule 4 applied (I do understand the principle honest) but here's my gripe the SP was 7/1 so I gained no advantage by betting early at 7/1. In real terms the price of Boycie drifted. So it doesn't really seem that fair that the rule 4 deduction is still applied when the SP odds (set by the market when NRs are all known) is 7/1.

Only 1 place in the 2nd Midhmaar (4th).

Phantom66

2 to go at today

4.55 Goodwood (4 places)

Mazzini, Queen in Waiting (placed), Jordan Sport (NR) added Upstaging

6.30 Pontefract (4 places)

Gone for the 3 best drawn in the race

Mon Beau Visage (Win) , Hanseatic (Placed), Rockliffe (NR)

Phantom66

A couple of very competitive races today. Could be worth waiting for the weather as heavy isolated showers are predicted but I wont be around to check. Keeping it small with a couple in each race.

2.55 Haydock (4 places)

Private Mission, Mustarrid

3.50 York (5 places)

Line of Reason, Gamesome

Phantom66

Blankety Blank today.

Tomorrow focussing on the 3.05 at Uttoxeter - 4 places (as it is also jackpot meeting)

There is also a EPR 5 places at the Curragh.

3.05 Uttoxeter

Vancouver (won), Elysian Prince (lost), Thundering Home (placed 4th)

GL All

Phantom66

Win @7/1 and a 4th place @18/1.

Shame I napped the wrong one for the Jackpot selections though. 

Phantom66

2 EPRs at Windsor

4.40 4 places

Not a typical shape to the book for this one 3 out in front of the betting then 6-1 bar.

I am a fan of King of Spin so backed that at win only as 7/2.

Also gone ew on Monteverdi @6/1 who is best price of the top 4 in the market.

Taking a chance Sumou may return to earlier promise with a small ew bet @40/1

5.15 4 places

Gone for Rita's Man (insured)

Plus Chance to Dream, Tennesse Rose and Badenscloth all ew

unknown_username

well done and good luck

Phantom66

Tale of 2 extremes

Complete blank for the 4.40

1-2-3-4 for the 5.15 :-)

Except that I hadnt ticked ew for Badencloth :-(

unknown_username

impressive

Phantom66

3.00 Redcar (4 places)

Quoteline Direct, I'm Dapper Too

5.20 Leicester (4 places)

The Stalking Moon (insured), Norwegian Highness

Phantom66

Back to reality today.

Just 1 returned insured bet (a distant 4th so it was worth taking that option) and some blanks.

Phantom66

3.30 Beverley (4 places)

Arcane Dancer (insured) (Placed 4th) Hijran (Lost) are the main bets with a small punt on C&D specialist I'm Super Too (placed)

7.50 Kempton (4 places)

Opposing MKGunner here, which is dangerous, but needs to be done...

Al Reeh (placed) and Tafaakhor (lost)

All today's runners have low draws which is important at those tracks and distances.

Managed to find a couple of wins elsewhere but not where it counted in the NAPs league.

Phantom66

2.20 Lingfield (4 places)

Interesting info on drawbias. High stalls have a huge bias but the race card says central.

I have gone for Tigerfish and Conqueress

8.20 Newcastle (4 places)

Sea of Green, Wimboldsey, Tango Sky

Phantom66

2 to go for at Epsom.

2.35 (4 places)

Muturakez, Stipulate, Mythical Madness (placed)

3.45 (4 places)

Fidaawy (insured) (lost) Top Beak (lost), Storm King (lost), Innocent Touch (placed) 

added Examiner (placed) - credit Jason Weaver

GL All

Phantom66

3 to go for at Epsom Saturday

3.45 Dash 6 places

Excessable, Boom the Groom, Bowson Fred, Sign of the Kodiac

4.30 Derby 5 places

Best Solution, Venice Beach, Salouen (also Cracksman w)

5.15 4 places

Green Light, Spinners Ball

wynne1938

Epsom 4.30 Dubai thunder 16/1