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get it in asap, AJss good enough to be ahead of a serial shover.
In all seriousness, cottlad has it spot on and backs it up with sound explanation and reasoning! oh and maths!
On the face of it, it looks like a fold to many, but when you read blackfishes expo of the oppo, (of which he has a very good read) its an easy call.
Remember that this is a cash game, and a game in which blackfish will be adequately rolled. If we are in an MTT then its a different story as we are busto if we lose.
To fold in this spot, against this oppo, with the history and info we have on this player is deffo -Ev long term.
You cant always have aces or kings!
1) if you don't get his money someone else will..... and very soon...... certainly before you get dealt AA/KK
2) we have proved that we have a minimum of 60% equity...... this is massive in nlhe. I would quite happily take this double up spot all day and every day with 60% equity and i have absolutely no idea why anyone would turn it down?????
Poker is a game of averages and if you get allin with an average equity of 60% or more you'll soon be retiring
oh and 3)......... ther are soooooooted!!!!!
Hand 0: 65.393% 64.40% 01.00% 1350786717 20872070.00 { AsJs }
Hand 1: 34.607% 33.61% 01.00% 705041543 20872070.00 { random }
Basically you have 65% equity against any random hand so its defenetly worth calling. If your still going to fold then you should drop down stakes - if you can't afford to take a 65/35 flip then you shouldn't be playing.
(PS this assumes that he is actually shoving every single hand but even if he's only shoving half the time you still have equity to call)
Only way this is a good call is if you can see that he has Q7 and not assume...Might only be cash but it's for all of your evenings work, I'd rather have suited connectors TBH rather than A high.
Also this guy is a cardrack (for the night at least) he's already sucked out on you numerous times tonight with cr@p cards
Just like the villain I'd rather shove my stack first than call my stack off with AJ...simples
Still a fold for me boys
x
now to add to this discussion... if he is shoving as i feel with any ace, king, pair, some queens, some suited cons... then what should you call with? i feel A9+ and 88+...
If i am wrong at least i wont loose all my dosh and ignorance is indeed bliss lol. He defo should fold.
Cheers Scotty
Airwalker
Just a quick question before I reply to that comment. whats skys cash game rake %?
Just trying to help blind pensioners across the road...... probably more fun to watch them dodge the traffic though
I'm still not making any sense am i lol
It's an opinion not advice. With my money I would fold with my stack intact rather than gamble...guess it's the nit in me eh?
Either way - for me...still a fold!
x
Shoved with Q9s and sucked out first hand joined the table.
Plays loose passive for 4 hands
Shoves
Loose passive 2 hands
Shoves
Loose passive 1 hand
Shoves next 4 hands in a row
Loose passive next 6 hands
Shoves next 2 hands in a row
When he shoved he had AK, rag aces, rag kings, Q9s and KK. He lost every pot he didn't shove in so my impression of him is a player that tries to play with the stack he builds up... gets bored very quickly and so shoves until he gets called and either goes bust or doubles up and then plays on until he once again gets bored and repeats...
From this I feel that you can put him on the range of any ace, any king, any pair, some queens and some suited cons mixed in. AJs beats this range and so that is why I called.