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Profit +£185
Points 624
Best diary on here without a doubt IMO glad youv'e kept it going.
Good Luck at the tables
Shuv
Thanks for reply, interesting road you been on.
As you probably know I only play recreational so I decided before xmas to withdraw a massive chunk of my br, which brought me down to £500. Mainly for personal reasons to have a cracking Christmas plus I treated myself with a couple of goodies for all the hard work I had put in to my game during 2012.
So now I am just going to chunter on and withdraw each month whatever I make over £500. So that’s me back to grinding mainly nl10/nl20 for a bit. Really not bothered about moving up at the moment, a couple of leaks I need to plug plus motivation just ain't there at the moment.
Must of been nice to be playing on here two years ago )
Good luck at the tables
Just a q about justifiation of the T7 o hand playing three handed. He has CSI= 4 1/2 so if T7o isn't even in the range of hands which is accepted to unexploitably call a 4.5 csi shove. You say he is playing his short stack well so he knows you will shove wider anyway. Aren't you just levelling yourself by shoving instead of a least having a hand that can call this stack size. From the charts i have its about 50% or better. T7o is thought to be about 65 or worse. Just wondering how you go about making those decisions in such delicate/important positions. It's obv in your favour from the success you have but for me , i'd have folded faster than Usain Bolt!!.
Points 868
70% of the time he folds, you win the blinds, 2400 chips
70% x +2400 = +1680
10.5% (35% x 30%) of the time he calls and you win a 24907 pot for +13254 profit
10.5% x +13254 = +1392
19.5% (65% x 30%) of the time he calls and you lose your 11653 shove
19.5% x -11653 = -2272
+1680
+1392
-2272
---------
+800
So on averge your push shows a profit of 800 chips. It's +cev, whether or not it's +£ev is another matter.
I hope this helps (took 5 mins).
bad session Dohhhhhhh
maths is great but think it would depend how oppo been playing, if they been just whittling down - fold,fold,fold then a shove is always going to be +cev -
Also does this shove depend on you stack size, how more likely are you to shove with a bigger stack
Cracking post to my post. I really appreciate it. Cheers to GaryQQQ and Rancid. I can do the calculations now, for my sins, but my poker is so "jeez he must have it" that it's interfering with my game constantly and putting me off at the mo. I couldn't even tell that Rancid had a set of threes to my pocket aces in our Fa cup match! :-)( #FILWA syndrome).
I need some of that "fearless chip butty" that you lot tuck into onto a regular basis. Cheers guys, its good to see what i thought was correct not be. I'm used to it nw........
Effective stacks before posting the blinds are 8.28 big blinds (13253/1600 = 8.28BB)
Nash Equilibrium charts say that T7o is a push at 9.0BB effective stacks or less. So our maths confirm that Nash is correct in this instance. When effective stacks are <10BB in a HU pot you can safely push from the SB according to Nash (though against most villains I'd call a bit tighter than Nash on the BB). Arguably the only exception is min-raising your premium pairs, which might work out to be slightly more profitable than open shoving.
Points 880
Saturday
Rubbish again!
Played away from sky all afternoon, couldn't get anything going, 1 min cash out of 7/8 mtts. 1 pure bubble in a 4,000 runner field too
Moved to sky in the evening.
At 8.30 I entered a £6, 1 in 10 sat to the £55 BH, which I assumed, was the speed bounty hunter @ 10.30.
Half way through, when I had a stack going, I realised it was for the normal bounty hunter that starts in 5 mins! sh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!t!
If I qualified I would have to play it! sigh.
Ofc, I did qualify, which meant I was forced to play a tournament that would finish at about 2am, making this potentially a 14 hour session.
Even if I ran well and went deep, the biggest challenge would be staying awake!
Anyway, I needn't have worried.
My starting table was the same 5 players that had just qualified via the sat! vvvvv soft. I dunno if this is right, but it was certainly a big advantage to me. Gtd 4 satellite qualifiers is nice, and obviously preferable to people who have bought in direct.
But they were pretty terrible players too, other than 1 recogniseable site veteran, bazbazbaz, who plays pretty solid, the rest were ded spewy and loose and perfect to play against.
Was totally card dead though, couldn't find any spots to capitalise on a perfect loose table.
Ofc v these types of players, if you aint getting the hands, there's not much you can do other than be patient.
Which I did quite well tbf. I raised/folded, cbet/folded, resisted the urge to barrell turns, just sat there quietly whilst they spewed stacks back and forth, praying that the table wouldn't break!
Almost 2 hours later, I found the spot I'd been waiting for.
Good Game.
Not.
Torture!!!! lol.
35xbb @ 100/200 is quite healthy, well below avg but I could have worked with that, getting to the stage of the game where pre flop aggression and stabbing at pots otf becomes more rewarding with sizeable blinds.
Hate slow tournaments.
Played the £5 velo and £11 blizzard BH's. Didn't win a hand in either.
Bout £25 down for the day here.
Poker morale not far off an all time low.
Nothing good happened for ages, spose I won the BH last week, but the standard in that is very very bad, can't take much pleasure in winning something as soft as that.
Would like something good to happen soon please, poker Godz.
tia!
Points 958
Isn't the 70% an assumption that you are making about how often your opponent will fold. What do you feel about my post and the chart that says its wrong to do this? Maybe i've got the wrong end of the stick but until i understand it then i'll be assuming the villain has hands that are better than they need be.
Ofc the key to the whole problem is working out how tight/wide he will call my shove, and then picking the optimal shoving range based on this.
That's the poker part. I gave the range as top 30% of hands, { 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q9s+, JTs, A2o+, K8o+, QTo+ } which is maybe kinda tight for an optimal calling range, but that's the kind of player I felt I was up against. As I said before, I felt he was the type to value his tournament life more than the potential edge he could gain from making marginally +ev calls.
He wasn't overly tight, just felt he was holding out and playing on the tighter side of 'perfect' short stacked poker.
Up early for the cricket today, England just finished their innings and somehow managed to get to 250+, which probably isn't enough but alot more than we looked like getting an hour ago!
------------------------------------------
Got half hour to try something different in the update here, gonna post the 'story of my tourny' from my last session. The 10 key hands from start to finish.
Quite alot of HH's, but see how it goes. All feedback welcome
I played a £12 sat into the big £110 BH.
The payout structure guarentees 2 seats, and the tourny is capped @ 25 runners.
This comp did max out, meaning the payouts were as follows....
1st - £110 seat/cash
2nd - £110 seat/cah.
3rd - £55 cash.
I enjoy this structure for a few reasons.
1 - It doesn't take too long, it's over within around an hour and half.
2 - It's top heavy, which rewards aggressive players, and alot of players don't adapt.
3 - The blind structure is very good, it's quite fast, but the levels are very balanced throughout.
Here goes....
My approach in tournaments early doors is just to play well. (lol! sick first line right)
What I mean is, I never have a strategy to play loose, or tight, or gamble early, or any other theory that some players may adopt. I just play the hands as they come and try to adapt to the table as soon as possible.
Key Hand 1
It's always nice to get a sizeable early pot, I normally feel 'in' the game if I can get above starting stack instead of scratching around being card dead and fighting to keep my head above water.
Fortunately I got off to a solid start with this hand.
Key Hand 2
Went abit quiet after that. This hand isn't a biggie, but my good start allows me to make a few 'small ball' plays such as this without dropping into the danger zone.
There isn't alot of room to get creative, but similarly there's not much time to sit back and wait for TT+ and AK.
Sigh.
Key Hand 3
Looks inocuous, but this is one of the key hands in the tournament. Need these spots to go my way, I could easily shove into a dominated hand, or lose the race as I'm not far ahead against any hand really, but it's a standard shove with stacks, and a key momentum builder.
Getting into the mid stages now, with around half the field gone and approaching the 2 table stage.
Found AK in the big blind @ 150/300. Rock solid TPT player (they all normally have it) 3x's utg from 20xbb, and I have 17 bigs. I'm not loving it, but I know I have to get it in and probably win a flip.
So I did, I did, and I did.
The small blind min raises from 16xbb, as he would with alot of hands.
I have no other move but to ship it, and hope he has a genuine hand. He's unlikely to have 1 in this scenario, and will probably fold most of the time but I feel shoving is still the best option as he might find it hard to fold some mediocre hands, and may level himself into thinking I'm light because it's a blind v blind battle.
More run good for me, he makes a very easy/good call with pocket 9s, and we hold again.
Flying now.
Literally the next hand, and I'm dealt another premium. Again, I'm faced with a jeffter 3x open from early position. Again, I know he is strong, but I have pocket tens and he has 5 big blinds, what can I do?
3 cooler situations in my favour within the space of 7 hands give me the tournament chip lead and put me in great shape with around 8 players remaining.
This was as good as it got for a while. I'd done the hard work, there was no real need for me to get involved now, unless the cards set up an un-avoidable cooler situation. Thankfully nothing disasterous happened, and I made the final table in a healthy position.
FT STACKS
Carpcaper 25k
DOHHHHHHH15k
mikem 13k
tarator 8k
mishmish 7k
rivermunky 5k
With blinds @ 400/800 going into the FT, my game plan at this stage was to try and stay out of the way of mike and carp, and hopefully get down to 4 handed asap. I knew that the plot would develop quite quickly on the final table, within 1 or 2 orbits, the short stacks would have either doubled, or bust, and the situation and therefore my strategy would become alot clearer.
Contrasting fortunes for the shorties, as rivermunky departed early, but tarator and mishmish both ran very well at the expense of the big stack, carpcaper who was playing an extremely loose game. Mikem was next to depart, meaning we were on the bubble, with the stacks as follows.
tarator - 34k
mishmish - 25k.
DOHHHHHHH - 13k
carpcaper - 4k
Key hand 7
I found myself in an unusual position here.
The payout in the tournament means that the top 2 spots are worth double 3rd, but 3rd itself is 5x the entry fee, and 4th pays nothing.
Not really clued up on final table ICM, but my 'logical' approach (rightly or wrongly) was to try and secure the 3rd place money, and then take my chances at trying to crack the top 2 places.
This is a really interesting hand, and would appreciate any feedback/opinions on this one imparticular.
The big blind is the short stack, playing 2.5xbb, with 1 of those already invested.
My initial aim in the tournament is to secure 3rd place.
My thoughts at the time, were that there is no way the big blind is folding. And therefore there's no way I'm folding pre flop, unless for some reason the small blind shoves, and the big blind folds, then I guess I'd have to fold.
The small blind calls, which I'm not too concerned about, hopefully he recognises the situation, and we can check it down and both ladder securely into the money. Of course if he is switched on he can exploit this situation and put pressure on me, as he knows I have alot more to lose here than he does.
My other option pre flop is of course to jam all in from the button. Do people prefer this? I'm really not sure and at the time was totally confused by how to approach such an unusual payout structure.
Should I go all out for the top 2 spots? (shove)
Or try and 'small ball' my way into the top 3?
To my amazement, the bb finds a fold. I get a really good flop to cbet, but my opponent check calls.
I'm now facing a turn spot where any bet puts my stack into life support territory. Is he really going to fold to a turn barrell? Is it worth the risk?
I felt I had too much to lose, and gave up on the hand. I still have like the nut no pair hand, and 2 overs. So I could be good already on such a dry board, and if not, I could get there on the river.
He leads the river, and I have to fold.
I'm really annoyed at this hand. My hands are tied due to the stack of the big blind, he has 1.5xbb left, to my 9xbb, I'm sure it would be ICM suicide to spew my stack off here, but I'm not sure?
Key hands 8 & 9.
Yes, the fact that there are at least 2 more key hands when we're on the bubble with a 1.5xbb stack can only mean bad news is imminent
The very next hand, the shorty on life support finds the Ace he's been waiting for. And gets the double up.
Ironic, the first time I run bad and miss equity in the whole tournament, and they're not even my cards
So now our friend Carcaper is right back in the game! There's nothing in it between us for the 3rd money spot. He has all the momentum, I'm fearing the worst. The way things have been going lately, it was almost inevitable.
Key hand 10
His stack doesn't show in this HH, but after I've put the big blind in, we are almost dead level.
My focus is now soley on 3rd place, any optimistic ambitions of cracking the top 2 spots for £110 have gone, I'd glady take the £55 now please!
I think my play here is standard. Maybe an optimistic flop call in the situation? I have some good equity though and I can call 1 street I think. I have to fold the turn if I don't improve.
On that turn, it's a no brainer, it's going in. And tbf to him, I suppose he has to call too with the equity he has and the stacks as they are.
mishmish 75000 1 £5,000 B/Huntertarator 0 2 £5,000 B/HunterCARPCAPER 0 3 £55DOHHHHHHH 0 4
sighhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
I'm left staring at the screen, thinking wowwww what just happened here. How did I not even make the top 3 from that position??????????
How did that happen?
How did I ever win at poker?
How is it possible to win tournaments when you win every single all in, every single flip, run amazing, cooler people, but STILL LOSE?
Will I ever win again?
haha, snap out of it dohhhhhhhhhh.
I had won a scary freezeout mtt earlier in the day tbf, which paid about £35 from £2, and made abit @ HU sngs later, only played about 5 I think. Made for a winning day of around £40.
Brings monthly totals to.....
Profit +£145
Points 1008
'furrely fed up' w/poker, maybe something good will happen today
Run good all.
Yes, the only possible variable in the maths is the BB's calling range. Dohhhhhhh himself had said he estimated the villain would only call with the top 30% of hands. So that's the figure I used; 30% calls and 70% folds. Tweaking it wouldn't change the results by much, I reckon it would still come out as a marginal +cev shove if you used calling ranges of say 25% or 35%.