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@Craig/Matt - Well stack size plays a small part as they do in all situations but the most important part is what I keep telling you (craig) about.... ranges. I absolutely hated the spot when he raised and knew it was gonna result in me busting but just couldn't find the fold in them 10 seconds.
Villian has done virtually nothing at the table for a pretty long time, he's clearly tight and passive. I'd bet anything that he's NEVER raising AJ on this flop so that means he won't raise a single value hand I beat.... he's NEVER gonna raise air, so that just leaves us with ....
1) Draws - Imo given how passive he is, he's not gonna raise draws, but lets give him a bit of credit and assume he won't raise gutshots, but would raise a couple of FDs. If his FD includes Qx i.e. KQdd, QJdd, QTdd etc then he wouldn't raise (imo) because he already has a made hand likely to be good with his FD. The Ad is out there so that rules out a ton of raggy suited aces that might peel pre, so in terms of FDs that raise we're down to something like KJdd, KTdd, JTdd, maybe K9dd. I'm still not convinced he raises all or any of them but even still that's 4 combos.
2) Hands that have us virtually drawing dead - AQ, A3, 33. These combos considerably outnumber the combos of draws. Plus the draws still have decent equity anyway, plus I'm 100% sure he raises the AQ/A3/33 but not 100% he raises the draws.
And when I take all that into account, and the fact if I fold I still have almost 20xBB, I think it's a clear fold.
I definitely blew it imo.
Really he just got very lucky to 1) outflop me and 2) do it when I have the tiny part of my range which is strong enough to continue once he raises. Now he's flopped the world and has position he should just call down/bet if I check a street, cos as you say my range will be vv wide here and more often than not I have something random like J9o and just snap fold.
The thing is, he's never raising AJ or worse value hands imo, it's hands that crush me or draws if I'm lucky. So that means when he raises my hand effectively turns into KK/A2 and I wouldn't have stacked off with those hands like I shouldn't have stacked off with AK.
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Played a short cash session tonight but closed down after a couple of hours to focus on the roller. Finished -64p
I also played a £24 Roller direct earlier... 7 players and I lose the HU AQ<KJ so didn't get a seat but got a small consolation of £44 and just decided to BI direct to the roller.
I had a really slow start in the roller, just stayed patient throughout but my stack was going up vvvvv slowly (no where near quick enough to keep up with blind increases). Then I got lucky to win a big pot off Adam Bromley when I had AA and he flopped TP w/ K9 on Kxx. That got me going, then I stuck around a similar kinda stack for a while until 2 big pots kicked off. First one was me opening the button w/ 20xBB w/ AQo, ChicknMelt was in the BB also with about 20xBB and I knew I was snapping off a shove... he did shove and I held v KQo.
Then about 5 hands later I minraise TT, Melt sticks his last like 1.5xBB in K8lou just flats, and I get the T87cc flop, he bets, I call, think it was 6o turn, he bets, I call, 7o river, he bets, I ship, and he hates it (says so in chat) but sigh calls with AA. That shoots me up to CL with 22 left.
Things were going well from there, nicking lots of small pots etc, and got to the point where I had almost double 2nd place in chips, but on my table was 5 of the top 6 stacks. Then this hand happened which put a stop to the momentum. After he flatted pre, I called the shorty knowing I was planning to call off the other guy if he reshoved cos when he flats I think we can pretty much rule out JJ+.
Sigh another close run in a main and still no cigar... at least I got a couple of points for Slip's leaderboard
Finished 15th out of 173 for £242.20 so all in all was a +£150 day.
Yeah definitely can't quibble, it's always nice even if it's a mincash when it's the roller. I've had 3 deep runs in mains recently including 1 FT so it's tough to know whether I should be grateful for that cos that in itself requires quite a bit of rungood, or frustrated because none of them have converted into really decent scores and all the money is in the top 3 places.
Last night's result did push me over the £2k profit mark on Sharkscope too which is a nice milestone.
I was in a team this week for the Premiership that had no hope of getting top 5 (just not enough big grinders) but the silver lining there was that the lack of big grinders meant I was the biggest point scorer for my team this week so get a free £50
-£27.25 there.
Cash started pretty rough but was partly my own fault, think I was just peeling a bit too wide pre and opening a bit too wide in spots where I'll often be OOP when called. Soon put a stop to that and managed to turn it around to finish +£81 so overall a +£50 day.... +£100 if I include my premiership money so can't be bad.
Poker points = 6705
Cash was pretty poor again, tables were really grim tonight, like 4-5 nitty regs to pretty much every single table between 30 - 50NL.
Late regged a £24 roller direct sat to play for the cash and ended up getting the £110 along with Geldy and that short fellow that does well on here.
Finished about -£100 on cash but +£70 on MTTs
Looks like another week in the premiership I have a team with no hope of winning, but again the silver lining is that it looks like I should be able to comfortably be the top scorer within the team for another £50.
Points = 6992
Annnnnnyway, long story short, I finished +£50 somehow, so that's all good.
Action was a little low tis morning, alot of the time I could only get 4 tables going and it feels like I'm wasting my time 4tabling. There are 0 MTTs on Sky worth playing in the morning and I got no money on other sites atm so just played a few HU SnGs on the side. Only £5.25s, played 10 and won 6 for +£7.50
Just realised when I looked at the premiership leaderboard thing this morning that I missed someone yesterday. I thought MrDavies was the only reg to beat to be highest scorer for my team, but turns out Sikas is in my team too so if he plays this week it might be gg winning that.
Points = 7268
Plus I was playing HU SnGs alongside again to make use of time/screen space so they reduced the loss a bit too... Played 18 and won 11 for +£15.50
Points = 7640
Lambert180800001£92.80facepalm02£58GBUK03£34.80Sharpoo04£25.52Brrrrrrr05£20.88
Played the main and mini too but apart from 1 bounty for £1.88 in the mini, there was very little of interest in either of those. So +£55 for the night on MTTs.
Cash started pretty drab again and was really not fancying the idea of facing another 4 hours of what's been happening for me at cash recently. Within about 3 mins of sitting down I'd flopped the nut flush w/ KJcc, pot got pretty big on the flop, turn pairs board, gg stack, then I have Q9hh, flop FD, turn the 2nd nut flush (Aheart is out), river is 4th heart.... sighhh, he has AxKh. I didn't raise/shove river but dropped near enough £100 in those first 3 mins.
But a few hands finally went my way... when I had a hand I actually didn't just get snap check/folds so managed to finish +£30 at cash
Points = 7824
Played the £10 HU SnGs alonside cash today (again just while it was quiet) cos JJ keeps telling me the standard is exacly the same as £5s and I'm easily rolled for them. He was right about the standard being the same, but I had a reg who just decided to run insanely good V me. Just tons of coolers.. I ship KK and he wakes up with AA, I ship AJ, he has AQ etc etc.
Played 10 games (not all were V that reg) and only won 3 so a loss of £45 @ £10s.
Cash was equally bad, lots of coolers, house under house blah blah, I'm surprised the result was as good as it was in the end. I finished -£60
Points = 8269
Wiiii had a long overdue good session of cash tonight. It always helps when it's a saturday night like, but things just went a bit more 'as you'd expect', my hands were holding etc. I did seem to be playing my absolute A-game for nearly 100% of the session and following my gut, made a few big hero calls that were good and some big (good) folds.
Finshed +£280 anyway so a great night.
Played the £33 main which didn't go very well, stack was neither going up or down for quite a while, and then I got it in AKs v 33 and bricked. I also had to play that £15k tourney for the launch of the ipad because it was great value, again didn't go too well, was chipping up ok and then got it in pre with KK... he happened to have AA though so gg.
It does a lot to prove the theory of 'build it and they will come'. Imo this is exactly the kinda comp that a lot of people wanna play. Like 'the big site', you want small BIs and huge prizepools. Obviously not every MTT should be like this, but you want a couple like this regularly, something where you can acheive insane ROIs, rather than playing an £11 BH, winning it and getting like 10x the BI. I don't know if a lot of work went in to getting so many runners but afaik it wasn't even announced until about 2-3 days ago and Sky missed a trick (imo) by not just having a ton of flike 60p all in sats, so apart from the fact I got a text message (so I assume everyone did), it would seem like a lot of the runners came from just your standard people browswing the lobby, seeing a cheap MTT in the lobby with a huge prizepool and regging.
Sure there was a lot of overlay and that's not sustainable, but what was the final PP... about £9k? And atm the biggest gte on the site with a £5 BI is gtd at, £1.5k iirc? Could deffo make it a regular thing just guaranteeing say £5k and go from there.
Also, wp on the site not failing. After every freeroll I've ever seen which has like 1k+ runners causing the whole site to crash, I was sure we were gonna get the same again tonight, so it's great to see Sky have ran an 1800 runner comp with seemingly no problems.
Points = 8725
I had another deep run in the roller, but yet again just couldn't keep the rungood going for long enough to get a big score
I ran pretty good at cash again tonight, in Dohh's word... momentummmmm. Finished +£260
So as I say, it was a good night, +£400 in total, and yet I still feel absoluetly gutted.
Obviously that was where they decided to run like god V me lol... They won the first 3, but I won the next 2 and then she left, so with the £21 game too I was only about -£15. Played £5s for the rest of the morning and won 9 out of 14 so altogether I lost a total of £2 across HU, pretty happy with that cos I got a ton of points and was starting to worry about getting to Prio in time.
Another good session of cash, not much I can say really, tables have been really good the last few days. There was a period in the middle of Sept where the tables were absolutely grim all the time, variance I guess. I finished +£45 , decent morning's work.
Points = 9622
I was well excited about this promo cos I suck at satellites but would absolutely love to go. I aint left the country for a holiday for over 20 years now (I'm 27)... even the date to fly out was 4th November (my birthday), and it seemed like I could smash it as long as I wasn't in DTM's tier...
I started grinding 4NL on 30th Sept as soon as it turned midnight when I still had about 9700 points, I saw that Zinfan was also going nuts for the promo playing about 24 tables iirc and knew she'd be in Prio (and I knew DTM was going for the low stakes non-prio) and so I decided to just keep going til I got to like 9995 points and stop until midnight when it turned to 1st Oct.
I can only play about 15 tables on my laptop really, anything above that and I'm not playing, I'm spending all my time clicking the 'I'm back' button all over the place... not even cos I can't physically keep it, I find that bit quite easy, but once I get to that many tables whether it's my laptop or internet connection I dunno but it starts to lag like crazy so I never end up getting my full time bank to make actions because half of it is gone by the time I actually see what's happened.
If I was 15tabling 4NL, so actually able to make proper decisions then I'm 100% confident I would finish above break even easily over a decent sample, but I didn't think 15tabling was gonna be enough to win it so at times I was playing more like 20 tables and just accepting the fact I was donating 6p per orbit for the most part (I did get to play some hands).
Anyway, I knew I wasn't gonna keep up with Zinfan's 24tabling, so decided to grind up to the point of 9995 points and go for the non-prio one. The only other person I could see on the tables at midnight trying for it was Curt360 but I thought he wasn't gonna be a threat as he said he was only gonna play about 8hr per day. Annoyingly holding off on Prio meant I had to stop at 3pm so gave a potential half day lead to him which he obv took advantage of cos the scores on leaderboard were my 8k hands to his 16k hands.
Pretty annoyed that Sky decided to remove the hand counts in the next day's leaderboard cos I have no idea of the gap and whether it's worth trying. It is probably an attempt by Sky to put people off thinking 'meh he's miles ahead, I won't bother' but in my case it's done the opposite. The thing about this promo is that it's all or nothing imo, the prize for 1st is SO big and the prize for 2nd so small that I have no intention of putting that volume in if I'm not vvvv confident of winning. If Sky put the hand counts up and I was close I'd have still tried, but as I don't know I'm not wasting my time to find out, cos this is such a top heavy promo that me grinding like 200+ hours to make 2nd place money would just be a complete waste of time.
I knew I had some catching up to do from the first day so I got some kip late on 30th Sept when I couldn't play anyway (for fear of making Prio), woke up a little after midnight, and played almost non stop until the following midnight. That's right, I played almost 24 hours straight, virtually never less than 15 tables, and I still wasn't top of the leaderboard today!! Obv cos Sky didn't include hand counts I have no idea how close I was, but if that kinda grind wasn't even enough to get me back on top then I just cba trying to repeat that ALOT over the next few weeks.
So looks like the seat is guaranteed to be Curt's now, he can probably chill out and halve his volume now I'm gone, gg and enjoy the package.
Ah well. The point of this post was just a quick summary of Sept....
Cash Games = +£1,056.15
Good month here, not much else to say really, just standard grinding it out.
MTTs = +£938.09
A good month for MTTs too, but also a frustrating one. My best result of the month was 4th in the Wednesday main for about £500... other than that I had quite a few deep runs in mains, including 2 in rollers, none of which amounted to much but still a good month overall. My sharkscope is finally starting to take a bit of shape now I'm playing a few more MTTs, was nice to break the £2k mark on there this month.
HU SnGs = -£24
Wouldn't normally play these anymore but played a few to keep my screen full in quiet periods. Very lolsamplesize, probably only played about 50 games all month and they varied from £5s up to £30s.. think I'd have a + AVG ROI but lost at the bigger games.
Premiership Promo = +£113
This is pretty decent considering it's a freebie! £50 of it was me punting one of my £5 free bets on Villa to beat Liverpool. Then I won £13 for being in one of the winning teams and £50 for being the top scorer another week.
Rakeback = +£199.82
Should have been more but my volume was really poor this month. It would have been more too but I decided to avoid Prio on the last day so that I could play in the non-prio section in the Punta Cana promo.... that was a waste of time (and about £50).
So total for Sept = +£2,283.06
More of the same for this month please.
I was a bit surprised that you were gunning for the micro rake race earlier this week... assumed that DTM would focus on that level and that would therefore make low stakes a much easier (?) table to top... while at the same time enabling the chance to still make £1k + profit (which even a heater hotter than the sun couldn't provide at NL4!!)
The flip side must be that with the extra tables, rake racers must be making more mistakes and/or playing more exploitably, so by playing your normal games it should mean easier opportunities to profit for the next few weeks?
GL this month!
Most of that profit was gone through playing the main though which lasted all of about 5 mins. Made a stupid hero call early on with a straight on board to find I was ahead all along (as I suspected) until he rivered a flush, so did a chunk there, Then 5 mins later, the spot to get me back in it I got it in on a Qxx flop w/ KK against AQ, but the A river was gg main.
One good thing that came out of the Punta Cana promo is that it made me realise that I am more than capable of putting in a lot more hours than I usually do. I'm thinking the 35hr of 15tabling I did in the first 2 days is more than most will do in 2 weeks so probably get a few quid from that tier, and I think I should easy make a top 10 in the low stakes tier for a few quid too
It's a shame they don't show the scores, but then I suppose the likes of Curt wouldn't keep putting in anything like the volume if he knew just how big his lead is!
Played a small session this morning (3hr) and had a small win of £75. Had another spot today where I think it's a pretty clear fold pre with KK.... fish opens, I 3bet, nittiest nit from nitsville cold 4s BIG, I shuold fold here but mehh I didn't... fish calls the cold 4bet which is like 80p less than his all-in. I call too, get vv lucky with a KTx rainbow flop and I stack cold 4bettor who obv had AA.
I'm not really into sports betting at all, partly cos I'm not really a big gambler, but also cos I haven't got a clue about most sports. Well JJ, gave me a tip, lol I know
Main I didn't do that great, but finished 245th shipping KK into AK and losing.
Mini was a lot better, ran vv good in races for quite a while but again at the crucial time it all went to pot. I had about 25xBB @ 2k/4k, SB opens from about 12xBB, I ship K9o, he tanks off A7o and holds. Very next hand, folds to me in SB, I ship JTo, BB snaps w/ AJo, and I'm left with 1xBB. Spun and stuck around for a little bit but bust 15th out of 668 for £42.90 (mostly heads). See Jac.... don't bother with MTTs, they suck
Another decent cash session, nothing special, finished +£90.
Decent start to the month, even if I am starting the month about week later than the rest of you.