Can a chicken go pro?

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:

I've been directed here to look at this hand. It is indeed generating conversation. I think we need to have better reasoning behind our 3-bet sizing than "experimenting". Presumably there's a reason why you thought this sizing was better than smaller or bigger. 

yeah, just added that to another post as an **edit**

 I'd agree with Gazza about not wanting to 3-bet against the BTN's stack, though. If we 3-bet, unless we go really small, we're pretty well committed to calling off the rest. That allows the villain to play easy poker against us. Assuming he's not going to level himself into shoving weaker Aces too often, we're never getting it in ahead. I don't mind 3-betting if his opening range is really wide, though, as long as he's going to fold a lot of the time.

he was opening pretty wide, i'm confident of getting folds alot of the time.

 However, we definitely don't need to be going to this large a size as we can leverage our stack against him with a really small 3-bet. The flop is tough to understand. The only thing I can think of is that you're overestimating your edge. I don't think an edge can ever allow us to pass up such clearly +EV spots. This isn't a marginal situation with the equity our hand has. I don't particularly like checking the flop. We have a read that the villain is going to bet every time we check but if that bet can leave us with no fold equity, we don't want to be inducing that bet with just a draw, particularly if we can't always be confident in going with the hand. I think we should be leading. Even after checking, I think we have far too much equity to just fold, as I said above.

I agree, its +EV to get it in here. but not by a huge amount - have you considered ICM? if i lose, I have 0% chance of winning the tourney.. but still a pretty decent chance if I fold.

Posted by BorinLoner

TeddyBloat

Im guessing that flat just looked too suspect give hes never flatted a 3bet before and isnt closing the betting with the original aggressor still to act. Id be getting it in all day here as we have great equity, but if youre trusting your reads then its ok to change your plan for a hand given new info. As long as you can make a rational justification.

 Very unusual hand though. 

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:

Just want to pick up on something posted while I was typing... Flatting a button raise from the small blind doesn't need to cap your range. There are really good arguments for flatting the top of our range against a wide open from the button.
Posted by BorinLoner

they would have to have to be folding to 3bets alot to consider flatting in the sb, like I say, it encourages the BB to come along "for value", so you are playing OOP vs 2 people, and one of them has almost 100% in his range... dont like it.

its almost always more profitable to 3bet your monsters, so we certainly shouldn't be adding it to our flatting range just to balance our range either.

chicknMelt

BTW - I accept my play may not have been optimal, after all, there is alot to think about in just a few seconds... but at the moment, I still stand my reasoning...

Glenelg

THis is WAYY above my poker level, BUT, giving the way Chick plays could it not just be a case of a player getting fed up by Chick "stealing" and having the kahoonas to fight back?  GREAT diary & nice bink BTW!  BE careful of positive tilt tho..  ;-)

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:

THis is WAYY above my poker level, BUT, giving the way Chick plays could it not just be a case of a player getting fed up by Chick "stealing" and having the kahoonas to fight back?  GREAT diary & nice bink BTW!  BE careful of positive tilt tho..  ;-)
Posted by Glenelg

Thanks Glen

I would say that the BB is much more likely RR than flat if making a stand. I hadnt actually been 3betting alot, especially OOP,  because I had been able to accumilate chips easily by just raise/cbetting. So overall, I'd think in this case its unlikely. not impossible though.

chicknMelt

have I managed to convince anyone?? or do you all still think I butchered this hand :S

GELDY

In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:

have I managed to convince anyone?? or do you all still think I butchered this hand :S
Posted by chicknMelt

I think i've understood your reasoning

but, if by being convinced you mean would play in the same way, then no

chicknMelt

anyway, as it turns out, I did manage to rebuild my stack and more - thats the part in my report when I said everyone was playing passivley and I got from 20k > 30k before my report started, then from there 30k > 50k, pretty much without seeing a turn card for any of it. it had been like this beforehand too, which is why I was confident of playing lower varience and not risking busting. 

I wasn't too worried about getting it in vs the button, because i'd still have 20bb if I lost. obv i'm never ahead when it goes in (maybe racing sometimes - PPs <99 and KQ possibly), but I think he is folding enough to warrant the 3bet

KLW1888

Good luck Chicken !

From a Newbie

unknown_username

Hi Chicken

Enjoyed reading your insights to how the table was reacting to you. As for THAT hand. Must say i wouldn't fold with the NFD for reasons Ivan has put succinctly. To be honest i'd probably ship but hey ho? Gl at the tables fella

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:

Good luck Chicken ! From a Newbie
Posted by KLW1888

Wow- first post and you chose to wish me luck with it! Thank you!

chicknMelt

board: 2,7c,4c

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
Ac9c	33.43%	13,141,502	191,737
88-AA, KcQc	66.57%	26,263,791	191,737

ok, I've estimated the chipstacks of everyone else, and the prizepools as best I can and put them into an ICm calculator...

My ICM values are:

£297 if I fold on the flop

£441 if I shove, am called, and win (I dont think he is ever folding after that flop bet)

£90 If I shove and lose

tourney Equity If I shove:

 = (chance of winning x ICM value if I win) + (chance of losing x ICM value if I lose)

 = (33.5% x £441) + ( 66.5 x £90)

 = ( 147.7) + (59.85)

 = £207.55

...so by shoving over the flop bet, assuming my ranges are correct (give me suggestions??) I lose almost £90 on average!

--------------------------

... if we use Ivans 46% equity (what range are you using??) then the results are:

tourney Equity If I shove:

 = (chance of winning x ICM value if I win) + (chance of losing x ICM value if I lose)

 = (46%% x £441) + ( 54% x £90)

 = ( £202.86) + (48.6)

 = £251.46

...still a loss of around £45

---------------------------------

*EDIT*

even if the villain folds 10% of the time, and with Ivan's 46%...

ICM value if I shove and villain folds = 371

tourney Equity If I shove:

 = (chance of winning x ICM value if I win) + (chance of losing x ICM value if I lose)

 = (46%% x £441) + ( 54% x £90)

 = ( £202.86) + (48.6)

 = £251.46

+

equity of villain folds * chance of folding = 37.1

£251 + £37.1

...still a loss

------------------------------

if the villain folds 20%, then we are in profit, buuut, like I said I fell I had a decent edge anyway

fold equity is massive in situations like this, and I felt like I had none as played...

gazza127

Yes... but why wouldnt you lead?

chicknMelt

because I felt like he had an OP way too much and would come over the top... then I'm in the same ICM spot as above, except I have less chips... or flat and leave a horrible decision on the turn the 3/4 or so of the time I miss...

bearlyther

Why are we check folding the flop?  Did we miss read the suits in our hand?

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:

Why are we check folding the flop?  Did we miss read the suits in our hand?
Posted by bearlyther

OK, maybe time for a summary...

-I 3bet the button.

-the BB flatted, which was strange, because he had never done it before. set some alarm bells going

-I checked the flop because I felt like the villain had an OP alot and would come over the top and put me in a tough ICM spot like the one above, or flat almost every time, and I'd be stuck in a disgusting spot on the turn if I missed or even hit a 9 ( I miss the A or FD about 75% of the time!). 99% of the time I would lead, but this hand was strange becasue of the 3bet flat.

-instead I decided to Check raise all in - to maximise fold equity, and make sure I see all the cards if called

... but the villains bet sizing was alot bigger than expected, so I flt like what ever fold equity I did have, no longer was there, so I had the option of shoving anyway, or folding. according to my calculations (shown above), the fold was by far the best move with anything under about 20% fold equity.

chicknMelt

most people dont seem to agree with it... but I still dont think I'd play it differently other than possibly the 3bet pre...

DOHHHHHHH

Have had an eye on the thread, but not read every post so sorry if I've missed the answers but...

What makes you so sure villain is going to stab 100% of the time?

Did you consider leading maybe 3.6k? to give you leverage on good barrel cards?

You could lead 3.6k, maybe fold out AQ/AJ/AT/small pairs, or even induce from KQ/KJcc.

Do you think he peels TT then ships over a small cbet here?

I think leading small might be a decent option, it keeps your range balanced, and gives you opportunity to outplay him on the turn where being oop will be an advantage on a lot of cards.

The 2nd shell wont have to be much either, and this line kind of merges the lower and higher variance approaches, giving urself a chance to win the hand without risking your tournament, instead of check/giving up. You can rep huge really easily and still get away if he's stubborn/got it ott.

I don't mind your idea of c/shoving the flop if you are "100% sure" he will stab. But I'm not sure how you can be?

End on a positive, Congrats on your win!

TommyD

3bet sizing is far too big imo.

After I see this flop I am high fiving the dealer and maybe taking him/her out to dinner.  Am betting to get it in on the flop.  As played still c/r jamming.  I think checking the flop here after the three bet is so exploitable.  If you're check/folding A9s here you might as well be c/f Nines, Tens, Jacks.  I need more info on the oppo if I am automatically assuming they are cold calling with a completely nutted range.

And if we are in a spot of bother, we are never ever far behind.

F_Ivanovic

I'm pretty sure your stove on this has come out wrong. We have 45% vs any overpair to our 9 (except AA) and I did the same range (except I took out 88/99) and we had 45% anyway vs TT-AA and KcQc. Again this is the tightest possible range though we're up against where opponent always b/c. 

I don't have time to check your ICM calculations but will take your word for it. However, the point I was trying to make is that you shouldn't be 3-betting with this hand and then playing this way post-flop. This is because the main reason of your fold was that you believe you have an edge vs other players and can build up a stack risk free by playing small ball - so it's baffling why you would then choose to 3b with this hand because by nature it will be a large variance play. I would much rather just fold or call pre-flop if I was trying to play a small ball game. Yes, it's not going to be too fun playing OOP potentially in a 3 way pot but it should still easily be +ev here and it's definitely lower variance.

Also ICM is never completely accurate anyway. Getting it in here and winning is going to give us a really nice chip stack - you said that after you folded you were able to increase your chip stack with no problem risk free - well, you would have had the same easy time doing that but with a bigger chip stack. And thus your ICM in the tournament would have gone up and up anyway (and more than what you valued it at when you called and won) - I think if we had a hand like JcTc here or even KcQc I'm far more inclined to agree with c/f once the bet of that size had come in but we are just too strong with Ac9c. edit: Also as Tommy said, if your c/f this hand what are you calling with? This is like the only hand we can have where we have fantastic equity vs anything opponent can have. If we have QQ we could be dead to KK/AA or a set. KK we could be dead to AA/set. Even AA we could be dead to a set. Unlikely, but possible! Ac9c we are not dead to anything.

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:

Have had an eye on the thread, but not read every post so sorry if I've missed the answers but... What makes you so sure villain is going to stab 100% of the time? Did you consider leading maybe 3.6k? 

yeah, my standard cbet at this stage is quite small, thats around the sizing I would be using...probably more like 4.6k though. This guy was quite tricky, floating alot and betting EVERY time I had checked to him.

 to give you leverage on good barrel cards? You could lead 3.6k, maybe fold out AQ/AJ/AT/small pairs, or even induce from KQ/KJcc. Do you think he peels TT then ships over a small cbet here?

not certain, but if I had to guess, then yes.

 I think leading small might be a decent option, it keeps your range balanced, and gives you opportunity to outplay him on the turn where being oop will be an advantage on a lot of cards. The 2nd shell wont have to be much either, and this line kind of merges the lower and higher variance approaches, giving urself a chance to win the hand without risking your tournament, instead of check/giving up.

against most opponents and in most situations, this would be my plan.

 You can rep huge really easily and still get away if he's stubborn/got it ott. I don't mind your idea of c/shoving the flop if you are "100% sure" he will stab.

I was 98% sure he would stab...is that enough?

 But I'm not sure how you can be? End on a positive, Congrats on your win!

Posted by DOHHHHHHH

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:

3bet sizing is far too big imo.

yeah, i dont normally 3bet this big, but I have found more success 3betting OOP to 3.5x recently...

 After I see this flop I am high fiving the dealer and maybe taking him/her out to dinner. Am betting to get it in on the flop.  As played still c/r jamming.

I've said before, 99% of the time, I'm betting to get it in too, but my read was that he was strong (cold calling a large 3bet with a player still to act?!). I think its 99-AA (99-JJ because they dont want to get it in just yet, and KK-AA as a trap hoping the button shoves) here sooo often and hands like AQ, KQs. the large bet on the flop made me think even more that he has a pair and is trying to protect against overcards and the FD

what sort of range would you put the villain on in this spot?

  I think checking the flop here after the three bet is so exploitable. 

yes, against most opponents, I wouldnt dream of it - but my read that he would bet was golden, I promise you. I chose to make an exploitable play to exploit another player.

 If you're check/folding A9s here you might as well be c/f Nines, Tens, Jacks.  I need more info on the oppo if I am automatically assuming they are cold calling with a completely nutted range. And if we are in a spot of bother, we are never ever far behind.

Posted by TommyD

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:

I'm pretty sure your stove on this has come out wrong. We have 45% vs any overpair to our 9 (except AA) and I did the same range (except I took out 88/99) and we had 45% anyway vs TT-AA and KcQc. Again this is the tightest possible range though we're up against where opponent always b/c.  I don't have time to check your ICM calculations but will take your word for it. However, the point I was trying to make is that you shouldn't be 3-betting with this hand and then playing this way post-flop.

I was trying to exploit my opponent... I'm never normally playing like this

 This is because the main reason of your fold was that you believe you have an edge vs other players and can build up a stack risk free by playing small ball - so it's baffling why you would then choose to 3b with this hand because by nature it will be a large variance play.

ok, maybe using the word high varience was wrong, I meant without risk of busting/being crippled - if I lose an AI to the button I still have 20bb, and I fold to a shove from the BB. was expecting the BB to fold obv.

 I would much rather just fold or call pre-flop if I was trying to play a small ball game. Yes, it's not going to be too fun playing OOP potentially in a 3 way pot but it should still easily be +ev here and it's definitely lower variance. 

I've said before how much I hate flatting from the SB vs a button raise...I'd only ever do it to exploit someone, and playing vs this bb OOP would not be fun.

Also ICM is never completely accurate anyway. Getting it in here and winning is going to give us a really nice chip stack - you said that after you folded you were able to increase your chip stack with no problem risk free - well, you would have had the same easy time doing that but with a bigger chip stack. And thus your ICM in the tournament would have gone up and up anyway (and more than what you valued it at when you called and won) - I think if we had a hand like JcTc here or even KcQc I'm far more inclined to agree with c/f once the bet of that size had come in but we are just too strong with Ac9c. edit: Also as Tommy said, if your c/f this hand what are you calling with? This is like the only hand we can have where we have fantastic equity vs anything opponent can have. If we have QQ we could be dead to KK/AA or a set. KK we could be dead to AA/set. Even AA we could be dead to a set. Unlikely, but possible! Ac9c we are not dead to anything.

I know, but with a hand like this I need fold equity to make it profitable no?

Posted by F_Ivanovic

just tried it again..

board: 2, 4c, 7c

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
88,99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, KcQc	66.57%	26,263,791	191,737
Ac9c	33.43%	13,141,502	191,737

hhyftrftdr

Mr Melt, I think I would still be looking to get it in on that flop with A9s. But having played that villain a few times, I can understand why the hand played out the way it did.

Congrats on your bink sir!

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:

Mr Melt, I think I would still be looking to get it in on that flop with A9s. But having played that villain a few times, I can understand why the hand played out the way it did. Congrats on your bink sir!
Posted by hhyftrftdr

I guess you would have lead out too vs this villain?... 

I think I actually prefer the overbet shove to just a normal lead vs him...but I had a plan and I didnt think I could go though with it after he made the bet so big on the flop.

Im interested in what people think the BB's flatting range is in this spot..

Glenelg

In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:

In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro? : I guess you would have lead out too vs this villain?...  I think I actually prefer the overbet shove to just a normal lead vs him...but I had a plan and I didnt think I could go though with it after he made the bet so big on the flop. Im interested in what people think the BB's flatting range is in this spot..
Posted by chicknMelt

77

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:

In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro? : 77
Posted by Glenelg

just 77?

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro?:

In Response to Re: Can a chicken go pro? : I guess you would have lead out too vs this villain?...  I think I actually prefer the overbet shove to just a normal lead vs him...but I had a plan and I didnt think I could go though with it after he made the bet so big on the flop. Im interested in what people think the BB's flatting range is in this spot..
Posted by chicknMelt

I'd snap assign 99-QQ.

I think he's heavily weighted towards these hands.

Maybe some AQ, AJs, even Ace Kings.......

Think readless I auto put him on TT/JJ and go from there.

GELDY

big stack vs a constant stealer

pretty wide

looking for an opportunity to use his stack against you