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Channing's Bet of the Week...

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  • IDONKCALLUIDONKCALLU
    edited December 2014
    winner :)
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  • NChanningNChanning
    edited December 2014
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:
    winner :)
    Posted by IDONKCALLU
     I'm not just being a massive company man when I say that each-way 5 places with Skybet is an absolute Christmas present. Getting 1234 on this race is pretty generous.

     I can see arguments for about 6 horses here but I've had a pretty biggish bet each-way on Hawkes Point and I wouldn't put you off.

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  • Tikay10Tikay10
    edited December 2014

    The Race Neil is referring to is the Welsh Grand National, 2.35 Chepstow.
     
    http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/chepstow/14:35/winner
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  • IDONKCALLUIDONKCALLU
    edited December 2014
    woodford county  for me in welsh national gd luck mr channing 
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  • NChanningNChanning
    edited January 2015
     Feels like a long time since I've backed a winner but I'm having a go today.

     I bet Hello George at Ascot last time a race that was run on softish ground. I was worried that day that the horse might want a bit further and that the drying ground might not help. I thought he could be outpaced which I think that may have happened. Really though it was beaten because of a nasty mistake and he did stay on and looked a stayer.

     Pricewise have tipped the horse and so we are struggling to beat 5/1, but I still see that as value. I would bet win-only as the trip is a doubt and if he doesn't stay then it will be unplaced. The number of runners makes win-only better too.

     I'm having 10 points win Hello George.
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  • a00rocka00rock
    edited January 2015
    2.40 Kempton currently 11/2 sky bet.
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  • andipandyandipandy
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:
     Feels like a long time since I've backed a winner but I'm having a go today.  I bet Hello George at Ascot last time a race that was run on softish ground. I was worried that day that the horse might want a bit further and that the drying ground might not help. I thought he could be outpaced which I think that may have happened. Really though it was beaten because of a nasty mistake and he did stay on and looked a stayer.  Pricewise have tipped the horse and so we are struggling to beat 5/1, but I still see that as value. I would bet win-only as the trip is a doubt and if he doesn't stay then it will be unplaced. The number of runners makes win-only better too.  I'm having 10 points win Hello George.
    Posted by NChanning
    I'm on good luck us ! :-)
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  • bluffulot6bluffulot6
    edited January 2015
    football bet for today 

    under 2.5 goals

    southend v plymouth 

    notts forest v sheff weds

    wins for 

    birmingham

    burton

    newport


    £15 WINS £373.27 
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited January 2015
    Next time Neil, in to deep too quit now! moreeee :D
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:
    football bet for today  under 2.5 goals southend v plymouth  notts forest v sheff weds wins for  birmingham burton newport £15 WINS £373.27 
    Posted by bluffulot6
    Move over Channing, this guys first post and he nails a 5fold.

    Wp sir.
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  • bluffulot6bluffulot6
    edited January 2015
    winner winner chicken dinner 

    hope you were all on 
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  • NChanningNChanning
    edited January 2015

     So good, very well done.

     I seem to be on one of those runs. It wouldn't be fun if we just won every time.
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  • bluffulot6bluffulot6
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:
     So good, very well done.  I seem to be on one of those runs. It wouldn't be fun if we just won every time.
    Posted by NChanning

    thats how it go's neil i'll be back next week with another bet 
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  • PReesPRees
    edited January 2015
    Should've posted this here rather than the other thread.

    I use stats to make my own "tissue" in side markets in other sports such as football but I find it much harder in horse racing and usually end up using my own intuition (I think the industry term is GUESSING :'( )

    Do you have any advice on compiling tissue prices, given the sheer number of variables in horse racing and how long should you spend on each race?

    Thanks!!
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  • bluffulot6bluffulot6
    edited January 2015
    hi neil,

    hope you dont mind me posting my bets here .......

    bet for saturday....wins for

    liverpool 

    chelsea

    wolves 

    derby

    shrewsbury

    aberdeen

    £15 pays £242
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  • NChanningNChanning
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:
    hi neil, hope you dont mind me posting my bets here ....... bet for saturday....wins for liverpool  chelsea wolves  derby shrewsbury aberdeen £15 pays £242
    Posted by bluffulot6
     Good luck with that. Definitely doing better than me on this thread. I'm not quite sure how this bet is offering an edge over the true chance of it happening and I can't really consider a bet suggestion that doesn't ever mention the most important thing in any bet...the price.

     Despite all of that I'll wish you lots of luck.
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  • bluffulot6bluffulot6
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week... :  Good luck with that. Definitely doing better than me on this thread. I'm not quite sure how this bet is offering an edge over the true chance of it happening and I can't really consider a bet suggestion that doesn't ever mention the most important thing in any bet...the price.  Despite all of that I'll wish you lots of luck.
    Posted by NChanning

    It works out at 16.1/1 Neil 

    the edge comes when I more than one in 15 times hope that helps lool


    I'M WHAT YOU CALL A MUG PUNTER ( who knows a thing or two about football ) winning return on year on year for the past 4 season with these sorts of bets 

    don't class myself has a expert IN ANY WAY shape or form 

    basically in 2015 i'm already playing with there money if any more bets go in in the next 22 bets then this is where my edge is seeing the first bet won at 24.8/1





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  • jordz16jordz16
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week... :  Good luck with that. Definitely doing better than me on this thread. I'm not quite sure how this bet is offering an edge over the true chance of it happening and I can't really consider a bet suggestion that doesn't ever mention the most important thing in any bet...the price.  Despite all of that I'll wish you lots of luck.
    Posted by NChanning

    With bookmakers offering lots of accumalator markets these days, including enhanced odds, money back if you miss by one, 30% extra if it comes in, etc etc surely this means they cant ever be +ev to do? unless you are getting an insanely one off price boost?

    Im not too sure with the maths side of if it all but i assume the markets that the continuely try to boost are the ones that are making them the most money? where as the ones where you can play with a small edge are the ones they try and avoid promoting?

    interesting to here your views on this as i dont remember seeing you ever back any multiple bets on the betting emporium site.
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  • goldnballzgoldnballz
    edited January 2015
    I like the look of that acca bluffulot (could be bad news lol)

    Will you be posting any of your horse fancies for tomorrow Neil?
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  • bluffulot6bluffulot6
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:
    I like the look of that acca bluffulot (could be bad news lol) Will you be posting any of your horse fancies for tomorrow Neil?
    Posted by goldnballz

    get ya money on i'm 3 from the last 4 

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  • ommomm
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week... : With bookmakers offering lots of accumalator markets these days, including enhanced odds, money back if you miss by one, 30% extra if it comes in, etc etc surely this means they cant ever be +ev to do? unless you are getting an insanely one off price boost? Im not too sure with the maths side of if it all but i assume the markets that the continuely try to boost are the ones that are making them the most money? where as the ones where you can play with a small edge are the ones they try and avoid promoting? interesting to here your views on this as i dont remember seeing you ever back any multiple bets on the betting emporium site.
    Posted by jordz16
    Most of the time multiple bets are -EV for punters, bookies want us to do them which is why they offer all the bonuses. Most of the markets are Overound (this is the bookies margin) hence ever time you start putting teams /horses/selections together then the Overound increases meaning your true chances decrease and you very rarely get the actual price you should be getting. A good way to check to see if a multiple bet is value is to put the selection through the oddschecker bet basket, it will give you the total odds of all the bookies, take the best odds u can get and then compare the same selections on Betfair Exchange (considered by all of the industry to be the true odds) very very rarely will the exchange odds beat the bookies odds meaning u are not getting the true price hence it can't be value. 

    I'm certainly far from an expert on this matter but I hope I've explained it properly, this is why most sports bettors will only bet single selections where they feel they have an edge, which over the years has got harder and harder because of betting exchanges. This isn't to say u should never be a multiple, u may find times when there is value to be had or u may just enjoy doing them and hoping for the big bink, nothing wrong with that, it's like everything else as long as we are in control of what we are doing then why not if u enjoy it. To some people a multi footy bet on a Saturday is a bit of fun and enjoyment, to others it's putting money in the bookies pockets. Sorry for the derail and rambling. 
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  • ommomm
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week... : Most of the time multiple bets are -EV for punters, bookies want us to do them which is why they offer all the bonuses. Most of the markets are Overound (this is the bookies margin) hence ever time you start putting teams /horses/selections together then the Overound increases meaning your true chances decrease and you very rarely get the actual price you should be getting. A good way to check to see if a multiple bet is value is to put the selection through the oddschecker bet basket, it will give you the total odds of all the bookies, take the best odds u can get and then compare the same selections on Betfair Exchange (considered by all of the industry to be the true odds) very very rarely will the exchange odds beat the bookies odds meaning u are not getting the true price hence it can't be value.  I'm certainly far from an expert on this matter but I hope I've explained it properly, this is why most sports bettors will only bet single selections where they feel they have an edge, which over the years has got harder and harder because of betting exchanges. This isn't to say u should never be a multiple, u may find times when there is value to be had or u may just enjoy doing them and hoping for the big bink, nothing wrong with that, it's like everything else as long as we are in control of what we are doing then why not if u enjoy it. To some people a multi footy bet on a Saturday is a bit of fun and enjoyment, to others it's putting money in the bookies pockets. Sorry for the derail and rambling. 
    Posted by omm

    Sorry meant rarely will the bookies odds beat the exchange odds. 

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  • bluffulot6bluffulot6
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week... : get ya money on i'm 3 from the last 4 
    Posted by bluffulot6

    I'm the type the bookies like no doubt neil is the type the bookies hate..... but both can still end up in profit plus there is always the cash out button if all or some of the games are close going into the final 10-20 mins 
    £600
    the way i play the game is £15 x 40 bets £600 

    first two bets of the year 

    3rd jan 9timer on the fa cup cashed out with a game and half left £208 should have left it would have won £352

    10th jan 5timer payed £373 

    £508 in total 

    LUCKY I i know Neil needs to win more often betting singles to achieve the same ROI


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  • DonttelmumDonttelmum
    edited January 2015
    What have you for us today Mr Channing?  Due one?  :)
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  • NChanningNChanning
    edited January 2015
     Great post by Omm...nailed it. Pretty sure Bluffulot is doing a great job of picking good accumulators better than most other accumulator backers, also very sure the bookies love taking accumulators for the reasons Omm stated.

     Today is a tough day, great racing but not the right betting "shape" in these races. The big Haydock race at 3.15 is not good for each-way bets but I will have a win bet in it.

     Corrin Wood is from a terrible stable having a bad year, Shangani is from a stable having a great season but a poor 2015, Benbens is poorly handicapped, five of the 12 runners are out of the handicap and the top weight Hey Big Spender does not like this soft ground.

     I respect Green Flag who likes the ground and will relish a slog but my bet will be on Vintage Star who came 2nd in this race last year, who goes well on the ground and who would be much shorter if it wasn't for the last rare bad run. With Brian Hughes back on I think he's a decent price.

     I'm having 6 points Vintage Star to win at 9/1 in the Haydock 3.15.
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:
     Great post by Omm...nailed it. Pretty sure Bluffulot is doing a great job of picking good accumulators better than most other accumulator backers, also very sure the bookies love taking accumulators for the reasons Omm stated.  Today is a tough day, great racing but not the right betting "shape" in these races. The big Haydock race at 3.15 is not good for each-way bets but I will have a win bet in it.  Corrin Wood is from a terrible stable having a bad year, Shangani is from a stable having a great season but a poor 2015, Benbens is poorly handicapped, five of the 12 runners are out of the handicap and the top weight Hey Big Spender does not like this soft ground.  I respect Green Flag who likes the ground and will relish a slog but my bet will be on Vintage Star who came 2nd in this race last year, who goes well on the ground and who would be much shorter if it wasn't for the last rare bad run. With Brian Hughes back on I think he's a decent price.  I'm having 6 points Vintage Star to win at 9/1 in the Haydock 3.15.
    Posted by NChanning
    just put 2 quid on it,ty and gl
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  • rainman397rainman397
    edited January 2015
    Good afternoon all.
    Brentford 11/5 to beat brighton.
    £25.
    All the best
    Rainman397
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  • samantha25samantha25
    edited January 2015
    Had Samstown @ 20/1 for obv reasons :) Weeeeeeeeee
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:
    Good afternoon all. Brentford 11/5 to beat brighton. £25. All the best Rainman397
    Posted by rainman397
    Nice one Rainman! Easy money.

    Could be looking at promotion if they keep it up....
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:
    hi neil, hope you dont mind me posting my bets here ....... bet for saturday....wins for liverpool  chelsea wolves  derby shrewsbury aberdeen £15 pays £242
    Posted by bluffulot6
    I think this one might have let you down. Care to confirm Jac35?
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