Channing's Bet of the Week...

zadoc

In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:

 Think I've found a winner today. Really like this one...  Hannah's Princess in the 2.35 Newbury looks a great each-way bet at 7/1 or bigger. Love the stable and I think the longer trip will help a lot.
Posted by NChanning

Thank you Mr Ambo

aussie09

3:10pm Doncaster

BUCKSTAY

10/1




edit ... result 2nd @ 8/1

Nuggy962

Think this should be renamed Aussie bet of the week

Chris_Mc

Good mr channing.  Off to the scottish national tomorrow and wondering if u have any tips and what to look out for. IM not to clued up when it comes to horses but any advice would be much appreciated. 

Thanks.

NChanning

 Hi Chris, I've been a bit quiet on this thread the last couple of weeks. Aintree was very hectic  and I only like to post if I'm having a bet. It's also a bit tricky sometimes because I have a tipping site where people pay for write ups.
 
 I definitely haven't done great in terms of posting winners on here and I really want to change that. The good thing about betting in the 7/1 to 20/1 range is that two winners can easily turn any bad run around.
 
 I'm going to write something about the Scottish National for the site later and I'll put it up here. I see that Sky Bet are doing five places which definitely swings things in our favour.

 Have a great day tomorrow.

NChanning

I suggested a few bets in last week's Grand National to our subscribers but we didn't manage to get even one in the frame this year. The most frustrating one was Al Co who I thought was really well handicapped but who only made it to the 1st fence where he came down. It must have been even more frustrating for trainer Peter Bowen who had targeted the National all year and who must have been looking forward to a big run.

 One of the reasons I liked the horse so much was the fact that he won the Scottish National last year carrying just 5lbs less than he'll carry in the race this year. Another reason was that the stable always comes into form at this time of year. It may turn out to be a good thing for us. The horse galloped away loose for a while but didn't seem to exert himself too much and in this race we know he handles the track and the fences as he won easily enough last year. We also get Sean Bowen riding, which wasn't possible last week and his 3lbs claim is like stealing and more or less cancels out the extra weight.

 A few firms including Sky Bet offer 5 places which is way better in this 30-runner race than it was in the 39-runner National last week. I think the 14/1 that some bookies have is very fair value but I'd happily take 12/1 if I get five places  I think it could get tipped by Pricewise in the Racing Post.

 I'm having 10 Points each-way Al Co at 14/1 or 12/1 getting 1/4 12345.

GELDY

Neil

as our ambassador

you should create your profile

won't take long

gl with your bets

GELDY

This person has not created their profile yet.

Glenelg

In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:

 I'm having 10 Points each-way Al Co at 14/1 or 12/1 getting 1/4 12345.
Posted by NChanning

I've also gone for an e/w on AlCo.  However, I've put a bundle on Lie Forrit.  Lucinda def due a win!  ;-) oh and also have a few shekels on Raz de Maree.

NChanning

 This is the strongest bet on the thread for me...

 You have to love the Bet365 Chase although I'm still someone who loves it as the Whitbread. It is always a very competitive race but it pays at least four places and you can rule a few out pretty easily. I'm not rushing to back any of the horses that ran well at Aintree n this race, the tracks are completely different, I think people underestimate how undulating and testing Sandown is. It's also really hard for a trainer to campaign a horse with the Grand National as the aim and then to have a totally different aim just a few weeks after. These marathon races do take a lot out of the horses and I would rather have a horse that has been targeted at this.

 In all horse racing I would say the ground and the ability of each horse to act on it is possibly the most important factor. I think there are a bunch of horses in this one that have all their form on soft ground and would really prefer some give.

 One horse who has lots of soft ground form is Le Reve trained by Lucy Wadham, who has always said this one will be better on something a bit faster. The stable have had a good season and she's given the horse a break with the aim of bringing it here for this race as Le Reve is way better going right handed which is why Cheltenham and Aintree were never on the cards. The horse has never been over this long distance before but at Kempton he was staying on well and it shouldn't be a problem.

 With 20-runners this would be a decent bet getting four places each-way but with five places from a few firms it's a great bet.

 I'm having 14 Points each-way Le Reve at 8/1 1/4 12345 with Sky Bet (If you can get 9/1 with a bookmaker who offers 1234 only I would say that isn't quite as good so grab the 5 places). 

robertod

Where do babies come from?

FCHD

I think the value has got be around today in the shape of opposing anything the great Mr McCoy rides. There will be tons of sentimental money on his mounts, particularly the last one, which should push the prices of other horses out to compensate.


(but knowing those horrible bookies, they'll just shorten everything anyway!)

DOHHHHHHH

Thanks for posting Neil. It's currently 9/1 top 5 on skybet too, quickkkkkk. gl

BigBluster

Neil makes a good case so I've taken the 9/1: it's best price guaranteed so OK if it drifts.

aussie09

3:50pm Sandown

THE PACKAGE

14/1





 

hhyftrftdr

Neil's tip now at 10's.

NChanning

 I'm surprised it has not shortened right up. I had a few quid more on at 9/1 and 10/1.

Tikay10

Ooohhhhhh

LARSON7

So close.

Every time, I've bet your horses e/ w they've always paid something:)

Slowly slowly catchy horsey

joesman1

You've just seen Nicholls Grand National horse for next year. Will be the right age at 9 years old, rated approx 147, and carry approx 10st 10Ibs. Too slow for 3 miles, but a very thorough stayer. 

NChanning

 Not a bad shout that Neil. I was talking to Nicholls before the 2014 Festival and he told me that he wanted to run Just a Par in the 4m NH chase but there was pressure from Paul Barber to run it in the RSA. His view was that it just stays all day.

joesman1

In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:

 Not a bad shout that Neil. I was talking to Nicholls before the 2014 Festival and he told me that he wanted to run Just a Par in the 4m NH chase but there was pressure from Paul Barber to run it in the RSA. His view was that it just stays all day.
Posted by NChanning

Had to back it today Neil, re:- topical tip as well as having a sneaky feeling the trip would suit...Come on Mr Levy or Howell... Keep the run going....

NChanning

 I'm not always a huge fan of the 2,000 guineas as a great betting heat. There is usually a large field, we can't always be sure which horses are going to stay, it's certainly possible for an unexposed outsider to "fluke" a win and the horses will usually split causing an unsatisfactory result.

  Just when I thought I was out the bookies have dragged me back in by offering four places, which is obviously tempting as it's not a handicap and I think you can get it down to the seven of the nineteen runners who are under 20/1.

 Elm Park will probably be a non-runner as this ground is just too fast so betting with Paddy Power who have this one at 16/1 and won't charge a Rule 4 is the way forward.

 I don't want to bet either O'Brien horses, I think his horses are not having a brilliant time and with Gleneagles I don't think he has all that much in hand.

 Ivawood was dominant in the early stages of last season. I think a lot of that was due to him being a huge animal who just grew at a faster rate to the others who have now caught up.

 Territories was pretty solid last year and he should run his race. Would be surprised really if he was out of the four and the high draw might be an advantage. All I really wanted to pull the trigger here was a slightly bigger price.

 Intilaaq is really interesting. He won a maiden in breathtakingly impressive fashion on Greenham day at Newbury and has been supplemented into this. The inexperience puts me off an each-way bet, I tend to feel he could win easily or be tailed off and I like something with less volatility about it's possible finishing position when I'm making two bets.

 Estidhkaar is the really solid one. I'd like him more if he had a higher draw but he has only ever run one bad race when he had a physical problem, he ran 2nd in the best trial when the two horses went clear, he goes on the ground and he's almost certain to stay. I can't really see him being out of the fist four.

 I'm having 12 Points each-way Estidhkaar at 7/1 or bigger 1/4 1234 with (would rather take 7/1 1234 than 8/1 123).

unknown_username

In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:

 I'm not always a huge fan of the 2,000 guineas as a great betting heat. There is usually a large field, we can't always be sure which horses are going to stay, it's certainly possible for an unexposed outsider to "fluke" a win and the horses will usually split causing an unsatisfactory result.   Just when I thought I was out the bookies have dragged me back in by offering four places, which is obviously tempting as it's not a handicap and I think you can get it down to the seven of the nineteen runners who are under 20/1.  Elm Park will probably be a non-runner as this ground is just too fast so betting with Paddy Power who have this one at 16/1 and won't charge a Rule 4 is the way forward.  I don't want to bet either O'Brien horses, I think his horses are not having a brilliant time and with Gleneagles I don't think he has all that much in hand.  Ivawood was dominant in the early stages of last season. I think a lot of that was due to him being a huge animal who just grew at a faster rate to the others who have now caught up.  Territories was pretty solid last year and he should run his race. Would be surprised really if he was out of the four and the high draw might be an advantage. All I really wanted to pull the trigger here was a slightly bigger price.  Intilaaq is really interesting. He won a maiden in breathtakingly impressive fashion on Greenham day at Newbury and has been supplemented into this. The inexperience puts me off an each-way bet, I tend to feel he could win easily or be tailed off and I like something with less volatility about it's possible finishing position when I'm making two bets.  Estidhkaar is the really solid one. I'd like him more if he had a higher draw but he has only ever run one bad race when he had a physical problem, he ran 2nd in the best trial when the two horses went clear, he goes on the ground and he's almost certain to stay. I can't really see him being out of the fist four.  I'm having 12 Points each-way Estidhkaar at 7/1 or bigger 1/4 1234 with (would rather take 7/1 1234 than 8/1 123).
Posted by NChanning

im on it

joesman1

In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:

 I'm not always a huge fan of the 2,000 guineas as a great betting heat. There is usually a large field, we can't always be sure which horses are going to stay, it's certainly possible for an unexposed outsider to "fluke" a win and the horses will usually split causing an unsatisfactory result.   Just when I thought I was out the bookies have dragged me back in by offering four places, which is obviously tempting as it's not a handicap and I think you can get it down to the seven of the nineteen runners who are under 20/1.  Elm Park will probably be a non-runner as this ground is just too fast so betting with Paddy Power who have this one at 16/1 and won't charge a Rule 4 is the way forward.  I don't want to bet either O'Brien horses, I think his horses are not having a brilliant time and with Gleneagles I don't think he has all that much in hand.  Ivawood was dominant in the early stages of last season. I think a lot of that was due to him being a huge animal who just grew at a faster rate to the others who have now caught up.  Territories was pretty solid last year and he should run his race. Would be surprised really if he was out of the four and the high draw might be an advantage. All I really wanted to pull the trigger here was a slightly bigger price.  Intilaaq is really interesting. He won a maiden in breathtakingly impressive fashion on Greenham day at Newbury and has been supplemented into this. The inexperience puts me off an each-way bet, I tend to feel he could win easily or be tailed off and I like something with less volatility about it's possible finishing position when I'm making two bets.  Estidhkaar is the really solid one. I'd like him more if he had a higher draw but he has only ever run one bad race when he had a physical problem, he ran 2nd in the best trial when the two horses went clear, he goes on the ground and he's almost certain to stay. I can't really see him being out of the fist four.  I'm having 12 Points each-way Estidhkaar at 7/1 or bigger 1/4 1234 with (would rather take 7/1 1234 than 8/1 123).
Posted by NChanning

+ 1 

cleansweep

In Response to Re: Channing's Bet of the Week...:

 I'm not always a huge fan of the 2,000 guineas as a great betting heat. There is usually a large field, we can't always be sure which horses are going to stay, it's certainly possible for an unexposed outsider to "fluke" a win and the horses will usually split causing an unsatisfactory result.   Just when I thought I was out the bookies have dragged me back in by offering four places, which is obviously tempting as it's not a handicap and I think you can get it down to the seven of the nineteen runners who are under 20/1.  Elm Park will probably be a non-runner as this ground is just too fast so betting with Paddy Power who have this one at 16/1 and won't charge a Rule 4 is the way forward.  I don't want to bet either O'Brien horses, I think his horses are not having a brilliant time and with Gleneagles I don't think he has all that much in hand.  Ivawood was dominant in the early stages of last season. I think a lot of that was due to him being a huge animal who just grew at a faster rate to the others who have now caught up.  Territories was pretty solid last year and he should run his race. Would be surprised really if he was out of the four and the high draw might be an advantage. All I really wanted to pull the trigger here was a slightly bigger price.  Intilaaq is really interesting. He won a maiden in breathtakingly impressive fashion on Greenham day at Newbury and has been supplemented into this. The inexperience puts me off an each-way bet, I tend to feel he could win easily or be tailed off and I like something with less volatility about it's possible finishing position when I'm making two bets.  Estidhkaar is the really solid one. I'd like him more if he had a higher draw but he has only ever run one bad race when he had a physical problem, he ran 2nd in the best trial when the two horses went clear, he goes on the ground and he's almost certain to stay. I can't really see him being out of the fist four.  I'm having 12 Points each-way Estidhkaar at 7/1 or bigger 1/4 1234 with (would rather take 7/1 1234 than 8/1 123).
Posted by NChanning[/QUOTE

I think you have the right trainer, just the wrong horse.
Moheet was made favourite for good reason when it was beaten by Kool Company.
Just like Trumpet Major a few seasons ago
He will benefit from the race and I'd prefer the 20/1 rather than a measly 7/1 in a cavalry charge.
But I'm saving my money for May 11th and an unraced filly called Naziba

IDONKCALLU

territories for me in the guineas gd luck

NChanning

 Feeling like I may never have another winner. Gonna try and break the spell with Zarwaan in the Ascot 3.45pm. 5 Places with Sky Bet is great. Could be a group horse in a handicap, back in trip and stable in form.

 12/1 ew looks like a good bet worth 9 Points each-way.

aussie09

BARAWEEZ

12/1

3.45 Ascot





edit ... not placed

NChanning

 Bad news I'm afraid...I'm still here.

 The four places from Sky Bet in the big Newbury 3.45 make it a much more appealing each-way race. It is almost as competitive as any big handicap though. I've bet Moohaarib which has solid form and is 10/1.