You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.
You might need to refresh your page afterwards.
You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.
You might need to refresh your page afterwards.
Comments
Two seconds last week, kept the cash turning over nicely, so I'm ready to go early this week.
KLM Open
It's very easy to make a strong case for the first half dozen in the betting, but backing favourites is boring!
Lee Slattery - 100/1, I really like everything about the chances of Lee Slattery this week, he has good course form, is a proven player in the wind and boasts strong current form.
The course form goes back to when Lee Slattery was trying to establish himself on tour, with his best finish of the year in 2008 being a tied 4th at the KLM Open, similar story in 2006 his debut year on tour losing his card, but one of the best weeks of the year was tied 14th in Holland. Competing so well on this course back then when he was very much a novice has to be significant, when you consider he's a much improved golfer today.
Current form comes in the shape of a tied 14th last week in his first event for a month, which included a final round 64 best of the day. A month earlier he finished 8th on his debut at the WGG, which must have done wonders for his confidence.
Anders Hansen - 33/1, For me in recent weeks Hansen has displayed the body language of a man who feels he is playing well and is almost expecting to win. So a good run of form combined with a past tied 4th at this event, suggest Hansen could get the big week he is looking for.
James Morrisson - 125/1, Show's up well when the wind blows, which often apply's to this venue. Scoring well in patches so hopefully with conditions to his liking he can turn patchy scoring into a consistent week. The real feel good factor is his last 2 years results at the KLM, 2010, tied 22nd, 2011 tied 12th, keep that trend up and a 2nd at 125/1 will do nicely.
Danny Willett - 45/1, Took a break after the WGC and came back last week to finish 2nd. Gained his first win on tour in June and has the potential to win many, many more titles.
On the surface his form at the KLM open does not appear to be that good, but 2010, showed 3 quality rounds that would have had him top 5 if it wasn't for a naff 3rd round, so enough there to show he can play the course well and has the reputation of being an excellent wind player.
I've joined you on John Senden, so hears hoping we have a good week!!!
I'm really not sure about this event, it feel's like the market leaders could have it covered this week, but that's just made me study that little be harder.
John Senden - 55/1, never backed the guy in my life, seen him miss too many simple putts when he gets in contention, that said my ears pricked up in July when I heard Ian Baker-Finch saying that he was talking to and offering his advice to John Senden on how he might improve his putting, for me Baker-Finch was one of THE BEST putters to play the game.
So, noting that Flash had tipped Senden this week and that he (Senden not Flash) came second in this event last year, I checked out the stats for John Senden.
Tee to green Senden is up there with the best, but for the season, Senden is a lowly 106th for 'strokes gained putting', with a minus rating, meaning he usually loses strokes to the field with a putter in his hand, however dig a little further and take his putting stats for the last 4 regular tour events since July 10th, Senden has a plus rating of +0.42, which means he has suddenly started gaining strokes to the field on the greens and that +0.42 average would have him in the top 25 on tour!
Jeff Overton - 80/1, earlier this year I thought he was going to break through into the winner's enclosure, but couldn't quite put 4 quality rounds together, a strong finish last week suggests he might be due for another serious shot at that first win on tour. The course should suit Overton, he is a local with course knowledge and I'm hoping the home crowd will give him that extra little bit of umph!
Graham DeLaet - 200/1, I sought of new last weeks set up wouldn't suit DeLaet and If I'm honest I was looking for reasons not to back DeLaet this week, but then I saw 200/1 and read a review of the course as being 'a bomber's delight' and I was hooked once more. Conditions to suit, playing to his strengths very well and massively overpriced! 35/1 for rest of the world is also tempting, though only first 3 for ew, is tight.
Hunter Mahan - 80;1, I've gone totally left field with this one. Mahan was having a brilliant season right up to a creditable 19th at the British Open. This is the guy that lost to Gmac in the deciding singles at the last Ryder Cup and Mahan has been sitting on and around the bubble for qualification over these last few months.
From looking nailed on to qualify, his form and results since The Open have been very poor and he eventually finished on the bubble in 9th on the USA Ryder cup points list. To cap it off despite winning this years World Matchplay, his recent form has been so bad he couldn't secure one of Love's 4 picks.
I'm going with the hunch that Mahan wanted to get back on the team so badly, that he let the pressure get to him so much that he completely lost his game.
Now with all the pressure of qualifying gone and nothing to lose, maybe Hunter's A game will return, at 80/1 I think he is worth a little faith, at least for this week.
KLM OPEN 1ST ROUND FABRIZIO ZANOTTI £5 E/W 100/1 OUTRIGHT £5 E/W 100/1
ROBERT COLES £2 E/W 150/1 £2 E/W 150/1
JAMES MORRISON £2 E/W 125/1
BMW PADRAIG £5 E/W 66/1 £10 E/W 66/1
BO VAN PELT £10 E/W 50/1 £10 E/W 50/1
CARL PETTERSSON £10 E/W 80/1 £5 E/W 80/1
In the KLM all 3 have shown bits of form at the course, including Morrison shooting minus 6 on the Sunday last year, and Zanotti 3rd a couple of years ago. Robert Coles hasn't been disgraced here either and didnt fair two badly first 2 days last weekend before slipping out of contention.
In the States Ive been backing the 3 picks quite a bit this season, have been looking doubley forward to Augusta 2013 on the back of this years final day minus 8 for Bo, though damage had been done as was already plus 7. Fast greens that day unlike the previous 3, and will get the same conditions here over the weekend. Ultra consistent all year, if not overly clinical, he still has a few weeks left to shine and think he'll go very well this weekend. Padraig has claimed hes playing the best he has for a while, likes the Bentgrass and if the putter works, even on 2 days, will contend. Dissapointment of ryder cup non selection still fresh in the memory, he can help get his mind of it and secure a top 30 berth for the final play off.
Pettersson has good record on Pete Dye courses and 80/1 look big, have decided to have a larger stake on his first round than outright, as he tends to get off to a flyer more often than sustain a challenge throughout the weekend.
KLM
As the Dart said backing fav,s is boring so ive gone for his tip and another well known player although not in form , but just think his price is slightly to high :
MP
Pleased to say I took 150/1, nothing like watching your 150/1 shot hole a 33 foot eagle putt on the last to tie the lead
Must confess I was swayed by your Bo van Pelt tip, I've backed him strong myself in recent weeks, so you prompted me to have a saver at 55/1 for first round leader and 50/1 outright, cheers!
That was my thinking too,
I know its easy to say it now but i was going to back Greamme Storm instead. Backed him a few times in the past after hearing a commentator say something like " This is the time of year when he normally comes good" and that was toward the end of the season. Really hope he messes up now unless anyones punted on him which i doubt. Was 260/1 on Wednesday, but when i saw Paul Caseys name there i plumped for him instead
zach johnson in the tour championship for me, will wait to all markets become available for best value on offer, only the 2 laying at the moment as remember its not for another fortnight! betfair go along with Sky and PP with 33/1 so doubtful anyone will go any bigger but theres always hope of an extra 7 points! though i agree with tiger and rory especially who's looking awesome of late. they'll need to start doing a 'without' market shortly!!
italian open i havent looked at much but was thinking something along lines of backing Gagli myself. On the sole basis of him being Italian I must confess!
theyve both got decent course form and recent good form in their favour but other than that just speculative punts really
olesen big threat to win but 20/1 a bit too short for my liking
Gagli was on my short list, but for the time being I've not joined Bell and Flash, instead I'm on:
Anders Hansen - 25/1, finished 8th last week without every really being in contention. I'll give him another chance with my money.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 35/1, after playing in some big tournaments and being a small fish in a big pond he's back to playing a standard tour event and in my eyes is one of the bigger fishes that can potentially win each week. Also no more Ryder Cup distractions.
Tommy Fleetwood - 100/1, showed up well recently, 4 consecutive cuts made and tied 17th last week was his best result of the year, has form in Italy and is talked about as being an excellent putter, which should be vital this week, I'm a sucker for a golfer with 3 figure odds, I can make a case for Tommy Fleetwood and he is the man in that bracket this week.
Lee Slattery - 110/1, looked so good on paper last week, made a promising start followed by a shocking weekend. I've got the paper out of the bin, uncrumpled it and decided 110/1 is worth another go, particularly as Slattery has some half decent course form.
So although I'll have a £5 tickler on Zach @ 33's, and the same on an in form Nick Watney (40/1) who acts well on the surface also, have decided to plump for Jim Furyk, solid on Bermuda and winning course form.
FURYK £10 E/W 1ST ROUND 25/1
£10 E/W OUTRIGHT 25/1
both tricky markets this week with so few runners but ill have a go as usual and hope for the best
I haven't found any good vibes for anyone this week, so I've been holding off my bets hoping to find a little inspiration on here, can't say I have lads!
I like Lee Westwood's chances but I don't like his odds of 16/1, I may have a saver on him, i'm going to stew on it for a little longer.
So since I've not been able to get excited about anyone else I'm sticking with my 'first picks' which are:
Bo Van Pelt - 35/1
Ryan Moore - 55/1
Backed them ew for outright and first round leader.
Good Luck everyone!
I can see why he didn't make my shorltlist.
That said I was surprised to see his recent results have been better than I had realised (a little under the radar).
Final conclusion, I've always been easily lead, so on your advice Flash, I've has an ew tipple on Bubba at 33/1.
I'll thank you later